Overcoming barriers to climate change information management in small island developing states: lessons from pacific SIDS

We live in a rapidly advancing digital information age where the ability to discover, access and utilize high-quality information in a reliable and timely manner is often assumed to be the norm. However, this is not always the experience of researchers, practitioners and decision makers responding to the challenges of a rapidly changing climate, despite the billions now being made available for investment in climate change adaptation initiatives throughout the world and particularly in developing countries. In recognition of the importance of information in adaptation planning, Article 7.7 of the Paris Agreement sets out clear guidance for parties to develop, share, manage and deliver climate change knowledge, information and data as a means to strengthening cooperation and action on adaptation. This article provides some key lessons and insights on climate change information and knowledge management (IKM) in small island developing States (SIDS) from the perspective of Pacific SIDS. A situation analysis of current climate change IKM practices in Fiji, Tonga and Vanuatu was conducted and key barriers to effective climate change IKM identified. The outcome of this article is a range of pragmatic policy considerations for overcoming common barriers to climate change IKM in the Pacific, which may be of value to SIDS more widely.

Key policy insights

• The partnership approach of co-investigating climate change IKM barriers in collaboration with Pacific SIDS generated considerable trust, a shared purpose and therefore rich IKM lessons and insights.

• Turning climate change IKM aspirations into practice is significantly more complicated than expected, and requires a long-term commitment from both national governments and development partners.

• Pacific SIDS need to establish national guiding climate change IKM Frameworks that leverage rather than duplicate growing national investments in whole-of-government IKM.

• Reframing climate change IKM in the Pacific towards demand and user needs will be critical to ensuring widespread ownership and participation in IKM solutions that lead to greater adaptation and resilience outcomes.

• It is also critical that IKM activities in SIDS support the development of national capacity to scope, develop, deploy and maintain decision support systems.

• Federated IKM systems are ideal for encouraging greater IKM collaboration.

     

Dramatic decrease of pelagic carbonate production by nannoplankton across the Early Toarcian anoxic event (T-OAE)

In this account we present estimates of nannofossil fluxes in four sections and one borehole all belonging to the Early Jurassic western Tethys. This study aims to map the distribution of pelagic carbonate production across the Early Toarcian anoxic event (T-OAE), and to understand which environmental parameters did control such production. Our results indicate important changes in carbonate production by nannoplankton occurring within the western Tethys and its variations through time. Nannofossil fluxes (specimens per m² per year) are extremely low during the T-OAE in all the studied settings. Higher fluxes are encountered in the westernmost part of the Tethys Ocean before the T-OAE, whilst pelagic carbonate production shifted towards the northern margin of the Tethys after the recovery from anoxic conditions. The dramatic decrease in nannoplankton production during the T-OAE has been interpreted in previous works as a biocalcification crisis related to high pCO₂ in the atmosphere/hydrosphere system. Although a high pCO₂ may have lowered the carbonate saturation state of Early Jurassic oceans and finally hampered biocalcification, we speculate that the most important effects of CO₂ increase were indirect, and affected pelagic producers via changes on climate and sea-level. Namely, it seems that precipitation/evaporation budgets and continental runoff that controlled nutrient levels and salinity in surface oceanic waters were important factors for pelagic biocalcifiers.     

Probability distributions for carbon emissions and atmospheric response

Probability distributions for carbon burning, atmospheric CO₂, and global average temperature are produced by time series calibration of models of utility optimization and carbon and heat balance using log-linear production functions. Population growth is used to calibrate a logistically evolving index of development that influences production efficiency. Energy production efficiency also includes a coefficient that decreases linearly with decreasing carbon intensity of energy production. This carbon intensity is a piecewise linear function of fossil carbon depletion. That function is calibrated against historical data and extrapolated by sampling a set of hypotheses about the impact on the carbon intensity of energy production of depleting fluid fossil fuel resources and increasing cumulative carbon emissions. Atmospheric carbon balance is determined by a first order differential equation with carbon use rates and cumulative carbon use as drivers. Atmospheric CO₂ is a driver in a similar heat balance. Periodic corrections are included where required to make residuals between data and model results indistinguishable from independently and identically distributed normal distributions according to statistical tests on finite Fourier power spectrum amplitudes and nearest neighbor correlations. Asymptotic approach to a sustainable non-fossil energy production is followed for a global disaggregation into a tropical/developing and temperate/more-developed region. The increase in the uncertainty of global average temperature increases nearly quadratically with the increase in the temperature from the present through the next two centuries.     

Characterizing the U–Pb systematics of baddeleyite through chemical abrasion: application of multi-step digestion methods to baddeleyite geochronology

U–Pb baddeleyite geochronology has become a major tool for dating mafic rocks, especially dikes associated with Large Igneous Provinces. However, in many cases, post-crystallization Pb-loss and intergrowth of baddeleyite and zircon limit the precision and/or accuracy of crystallization ages. We present results from multi-step digestion experiments designed to understand and reduce these effects. Experiments were carried out on Neoproterozoic baddeleyites with zircon inter- and over-growths from the Gannakouriep dike swarm, Namibia, and on fragments of a large Paleoproterozoic baddeleyite from the Phalaborwa carbonatite, South Africa. Multi-step digestion experiments on annealed Phalaborwa baddeleyite were designed to test whether the recently developed chemical abrasion technique for U–Pb zircon geochronology can be applied to baddeleyite. The experiments generated complex results—individual digestion steps were both normally and reversely discordant suggesting that U and Pb were decoupled in the multi-step digestions—and indicate that the current form of multi-step chemical abrasion is not an effective method for reducing the impact of Pb-loss in baddeleyite. A separate set of experiments on the Gannakouriep baddeleyite focused on isolating the zircon and baddeleyite components in composite grains. Conventional single-step digestion experiments for this sample resulted in a discordant suite of analyses with significant scatter attributed to inter- and over-grown zircon and highlight the difficulty of obtaining precise and accurate ages from composite grains. To isolate the baddeleyite and zircon in these grains, a two-step HCl–HF chemical abrasion procedure for annealed grains was developed. This technique was successful at selectively dissolving the baddeleyite and zircon components. Secondary zircon inter- and over-growths of baddeleyite can occur in samples affected by low-temperature alteration to granulite facies metamorphism, and the new HCl–HF chemical abrasion procedure provides a method for resolving both the igneous and metamorphic history of these composite grains.     

Amplification of gravitational waves in scalar-tensor accelerating lambda-Universes

After reviewing the scalar-tensor lambda-accelerating power-law solutions by Berman (Astrophys. Space Sci. 323:103, 2009a), we obtain solutions for the amplification of gravitational waves in the models. The solutions consider a perfect gas equation of state, with cosmic pressure proportional to the energy density, the proportionality constant being smaller than −2/3.     

Tropical glacier fluctuations in the Cordillera Blanca,Peru between 12.5 and 7.6 ka from cosmogenic 10Be dating

We report cosmogenic surface exposure ¹⁰Be ages of 21 boulders on moraines in the Jeullesh and Tuco Valleys, Cordillera Blanca, Peru (～10°S at altitudes above 4200 m). Ages are based on the sea-level at high-latitude reference production rate and scaling system of Lifton et al. (2005. Addressing solar modulation and long-term uncertainties in scaling secondary cosmic rays for in situ cosmogenic nuclide applications. Earth and Planetary Science Letters 239, 140–161) in the CRONUS-Earth online calculator of Balco et al. (2008. A complete and easily accessible means of calculating surface exposure ages or erosion rates from ¹⁰Be and ²⁶Al measurements. Quaternary Geochronology 3, 174–195). Using the Lifton system, large outer lateral moraines in the Jeullesh Valley have a ¹⁰Be exposure age of 12.4 ka, inside of which are smaller moraine systems dated to 10.8, 9.7 and 7.6 ka. Large outer lateral moraines in the Tuco Valley have a ¹⁰Be exposure age of 12.5 ka, with inner moraines dated to 11.3 and 10.7 ka. Collectively, these data indicate that glacier recession from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in the Cordillera Blanca was punctuated by three to four stillstands or minor advances during the period 12.5–7.6 ka, spanning the Younger Dryas Chronozone (YDC; ～12.9–11.6 ka) and the cold event identified in Greenland ice cores and many other parts of the world at 8.2 ka. The inferred fluctuations of tropical glaciers at these times, well after their withdrawal from the LGM, indicate an increase in precipitation or a decrease in temperature in this region. Although palaeoenvironmental records show regional and temporal variability, comparison with proxy records (lacustrine sediments and ice cores) indicate that regionally this was a cold, dry period so we ascribe these glacier advances to reduced atmospheric temperature rather than increased precipitation.     

Advance,deglacial and sea‐level chronology for Foxe Peninsula,Baffin Island,Nunavut

The impact of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) deglaciation on Northern Hemisphere early Holocene climate can be evaluated only once a detailed chronology of ice history and sea‐level change is established. Foxe Peninsula is ideally situated on the northern boundary of Hudson Strait, and preserves a chronostratigraphy that provides important glaciological insights regarding changes in ice‐sheet position and relative sea level before and after the 8.2 ka cooling event. We utilized a combination of radiocarbon ages, adjusted with a new locally derived ΔR, and terrestrial in‐situ cosmogenic nuclide (TCN) exposure ages to develop a chronology for early‐Holocene events in the northern Hudson Strait. A marine limit at 192 m a.s.l., dated at 8.1–7.9 cal. ka BP, provides the timing of deglaciation following the 8.2 ka event, confirming that ice persisted at least north of Hudson Bay until then. A moraine complex and esker morphosequence, the Foxe Moraine, relates to glaciomarine outwash deltas and beaches at 160 m a.s.l., and is tightly dated at 7.6 cal. ka BP with a combination of shell dates and exposure ages on boulders. The final rapid collapse of Foxe Peninsula ice occurred by 7.1–6.9 cal. ka BP (radiocarbon dates and TCN depth profile age on an outwash delta), which supports the hypothesis that LIS melting contributed to the contemporaneous global sea‐level rise known as the Catastrophic Rise Event 3 (CRE‐3).     

Evaluation of probabilistic flow in two unsaturated soils

A variably saturated flow model is coupled to a first-order reliability algorithm to simulate unsaturated flow in two soils. The unsaturated soil properties are considered as uncertain variables with means, standard deviations, and marginal probability distributions. Thus, each simulation constitutes an unsaturated probability flow event. Sensitivities of the uncertain variables are estimated for each event. The unsaturated hydraulic properties of a fine-textured soil and a coarse-textured soil are used. The properties are based on the van Genuchten model. The flow domain has a recharge surface, a seepage boundary along the bottom, and a no-flow boundary along the sides. The uncertain variables are saturated water content, residual water content, van Genuchten model parameters alpha (α) and n, and saturated hydraulic conductivity. The objective is to evaluate the significance of each uncertain variable to the probabilistic flow. Under wet conditions, saturated water content and residual water content are the most significant uncertain variables in the sand. For dry conditions in the sand, however, the van Genuchten model parameters α and n are the most significant. Model parameter n and saturated hydraulic conductivity are the most significant for the wet clay loam. Saturated water content is most significant for the dry clay loam. Electronic Publication