Modelling of malaria incidence in Akure,Nigeria: negative binomial approach

The connections between malaria incidence and climate variability have been studied in recent time using some mathematical and statistical models. Many of the statistical models in literature focused on time series approach based on Box–Jenkins methodology. However, fitting time series model based on the Box–Jenkins methodology may be challenging. Most malaria incidence data are count and are over-dispersed. In this study, negative binomial models were formulated for fitting malaria incidence in Akure—one of the epidemic cities in Nigeria. In particular, negative binomial models were formulated for each of the number of outpatient individuals, number of inpatient individuals and mortality count as a function of some climate variables. It was found that an increase in minimum temperature and relative humidity at lag 1 significantly increased the chance of malaria transmission and thereby leads to an increase in the number of inpatient and outpatient individuals, as well as the total number of malaria cases. The minimum temperature, rainfall amount and relative humidity of the study area have a significant impact on the increase of number of inpatient and outpatient individuals while mortality count depends on the total number of reported malaria cases. The findings from this study is to offer in-depth understanding on climate-malaria incidence linkages in Akure, Nigeria.

     

Estimation of the Shale Oil/Gas Potential of a Paleocene–Eocene Succession: A Case Study from the Meyal Area, Potwar Basin, Pakistan

The successful exploration and production of shale-gas resources in the United States and Canada sets a new possible solution towards the energy crisis presently affecting most countries of Asia. This study focuses on the use of well log and 2D seismic data for the characterization of the shale oil/gas potential of a Paleocene–Eocene succession — the Meyal area in the Potwar Basin of Pakistan. Two shaly plays are identified in Paleocene–Eocene strata in well logs using ΔLogR and modified ΔLogR cross-plot techniques. The results indicate that Paleocene shale(the Patala Formation) and the lower shaly part of Eocene limestone(Sakesar Formation) can be potentially mature source rocks. However, the thermal maturity modelling proves that only the Paleocene shale is mature. Our results also suggest that the maturity responses on ΔLogR models for the lower shaly part of the Eocene limestone are due to trapped hydrocarbons in the intra-formational fractures. Petroelastic/petrophysical analysis of the Patala Formation reveals two potential shale oil/gas zones on the basis of Young's modulus, Poisson's ratio, Brittleness index and Total Organic Content at an exploitation depth of 3980–3988 m. This work can provide valuable insight for estimating shale oil/gas potential in highly deformed basins not only in Asia but in other parts of the world.     

Application of spectral decomposition and neural networks to characterise deep turbidite systems in the outer fold and thrust belt of the Niger Delta

We have applied a wavelet‐based spectral decomposition scheme and a multi‐layered feed‐forward neural network to interpret turbidite depositional systems from three‐dimensional reflection seismic data and well logs for a prospective hydrocarbon zone in the outer fold and thrust belt of the Niger Delta. The goal was to overcome difficulties in interpreting depositional systems from deep sections of the Field, occasioned by loss of seismic resolution with depth and the sparse distribution of wells. The decomposition scheme allowed us to delineate multiple depositional systems not apparent on the conventional seismic amplitude display. These systems include linear channel systems with terminal splay lobes, a sinuous channel system and its abandoned meander loops, and sediment wave features in overbank areas. Delineated channel morphologies and transport directions varied both laterally and vertically and were possibly dependent upon the disposition of the pre‐thrusting paleo‐seafloor. Terminal splay lobes are fragmented and coincident with the locations of topographic lows, which are possibly related to the initial configurations of the oceanic basement below. Predicted porosity and resistivity distributions have morphologies that correlate well with the mapping provided by the spectral decomposition scheme. The property distributions indicate that reservoir prone systems in the Field and possibly within the outer fold and thrust belt are composed primarily of channel systems, both linear and sinuous, and their associated splay lobes. The channel systems appear vertically stacked, and this situation possibly increases the potential success rate for exploration wells in the region. Beyond channel limits, redistributive bottom currents varying rapidly in speed and direction apparently encouraged the dispersal of sand‐rich sediments to form sediment waves. Despite the limited well control, the methodology significantly aided our interpretation. It proved effective at revealing the distribution of reservoir prone facies within the Field and provided insight into the dominant factors that controlled deposition within the Field.     

Laboratory measurements of seismic attenuation and Young's modulus dispersion in a partially and fully water‐saturated porous sample made of sintered borosilicate glass

We measured the extensional‐mode attenuation and Young's modulus in a porous sample made of sintered borosilicate glass at microseismic to seismic frequencies (0.05–50 Hz) using the forced oscillation method. Partial saturation was achieved by water imbibition, varying the water saturation from an initial dry state up to ～99%, and by gas exsolution from an initially fully water‐saturated state down to ～99%. During forced oscillations of the sample effective stresses up to 10 MPa were applied. We observe frequency‐dependent attenuation, with a peak at 1–5 Hz, for ～99% water saturation achieved both by imbibition and by gas exsolution. The magnitude of this attenuation peak is consistently reduced with increasing fluid pressure and is largely insensitive to changes in effective stress. Similar observations have recently been attributed to wave‐induced gas exsolution–dissolution. At full water saturation, the left‐hand side of an attenuation curve, with a peak beyond the highest measured frequency, is observed at 3 MPa effective stress, while at 10 MPa effective stress the measured attenuation is negligible. This observation is consistent with wave‐induced fluid flow associated with mesoscopic compressibility contrasts in the sample's frame. These variations in compressibility could be due to fractures and/or compaction bands that formed between separate sets of forced‐oscillation experiments in response to the applied stresses. The agreement of the measured frequency‐dependent attenuation and Young's modulus with the Kramers–Kronig relations and additional data analyses indicate the good quality of the measurements. Our observations point to the complex interplay between structural and fluid heterogeneities on the measured seismic attenuation and they illustrate how these heterogeneities can facilitate the dominance of one attenuation mechanism over another.     

Allogenic and autogenic effects on mangrove dynamics from the Ceará Mirim River,north‐eastern Brazil,during the middle and late Holocene

It is possible that climate changes and sea level fluctuations (allogenic processes) are and will cause major changes in mangrove dynamics. However, other driving forces may be significantly affecting this system. Distinguishing allogenic and autogenic influence on mangroves is a challenging question, because mechanisms related to the natural dynamics of depositional environments (autogenic processes) have strong influences on the establishment and degradation of mangroves. Thus, impacts on mangroves caused by autogenic processes may be erroneously attributed to allogenic mechanisms. Therefore, it is imperative to identify the ‘fingerprint’ of global changes in modern mangrove dynamics. In order to characterize the influence of these forces on mangroves, this work has used geomorphology and vegetation maps integrated with sedimentological and palynological data, radiocarbon dating, as well as δ¹³C, δ¹⁵N and C/N from sedimentary organic matter. The inter‐proxy analyses reveal an estuarine influence with mangrove development along the Ceará Mirim River, north‐eastern Brazil, since ~6920 cal yr bp , after the post‐glacial sea level rise. Relative sea level (RSL) has been stable during the middle and late Holocene. Mangrove establishment along this fluvial valley begins at about 6920 cal yr bp , caused by the sea‐level stabilization, an allogenic influence. However, after its establishment, wetland dynamics were mainly controlled by autogenic factors, related to channel migrations, instead of allogenic process. Some influence of sea‐level and climate changes on mangrove dynamics in this estuarine channel have been weakened by more intense tidal channels activities. Therefore, the expansion and contraction of mangrove areas along the estuary of the Ceará Mirim River since 6920 cal yr bp has been mainly influenced by channel dynamics that regulate the accretion and erosion of mangrove substrates. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Field evidence for the control of grain size and sediment supply on steady‐state bedrock river channel slopes in a tectonically active setting

We exploit a natural experiment in Boulder Creek, a ~ 30 km² drainage in the Santa Cruz mountains, CA, USA to explore how an abrupt increase in the caliber of bedload sediment along a bedrock channel influences channel morphology in an actively uplifting landscape. Boulder Creek's bedrock channel, which is entirely developed on weak sedimentary rock, has a high flow shear stress that is about 3.5 times greater where it transports coarse (~ 22 cm D₅₀) diorite in the lower reaches in comparison with the upstream section of the creek that transports only relatively finer bedload (~2 cm D₅₀) derived from weak sedimentary rocks. In addition, Boulder Creek's channel abruptly widens and shallows downstream and transitions from partial to nearly continuous alluvial cover where it begins transporting coarse diorite. Boulder Creek's tributary channels are also about three times steeper where they transport diorite bedload, and within the Santa Cruz mountains channels in sedimentary bedrock are systematically steeper when >50% of their catchment area is within crystalline basement rocks. Despite this clear control of coarse sediment size on channel slopes, the threshold of motion stress for bedload, alone, does not appear to control channel profile slopes here. Upper Boulder Creek, which is starved of coarse sediment, maintains high flow shear stresses well in excess of the threshold for motion. In contrast, lower Boulder Creek, with a greater coarse sediment supply, exerts high flow stresses much closer to the threshold for motion. We speculate that upper Boulder Creek has evolved to sustain partial alluvial cover and transfer greater energy to the bed via bedload impacts to compensate for its low coarse sediment supply. Thus bedload supply, bedrock erosion efficiency, and grain size all appear to influence channel slopes here. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Charged Particle Monitor on the Astrosat Mission

Charged Particle Monitor (CPM) on-board the Astrosat satellite is an instrument designed to detect the flux of charged particles at the satellite location. A Cesium Iodide Thallium (CsI(Tl)) crystal is used with a Kapton window to detect protons with energies greater than 1 MeV. The ground calibration of CPM was done using gamma-rays from radioactive sources and protons from particle accelerators. Based on the ground calibration results, energy deposition above 1 MeV are accepted and particle counts are recorded. It is found that CPM counts are steady and the signal for the onset and exit of South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) region are generated in a very reliable and stable manner.     

Paraglacial gullying of sediment‐mantled slopes: a case study of Colletthøgda,Kongsfjorden area,West Spitsbergen (Svalbard)

This paper evaluates the paraglacial evolution of a sediment‐mantled slope in a polar maritime environment. The intensity of paraglacial processes is estimated through quantification of erosion and dating of field sectors with the help of photographic archives. Gully erosion has been estimated using morphometric parameters and by surveys of vegetation cover. The rapid melting of dead‐ice cores controls gully formation. This leads to slope form modification: gully profile gradients are reduced from a mean of 35° to a mean ranging between 10° and 15°. Profile evolution results from the collapse of glacier lateral moraine. All data (mean slope angle of individual gullies, frequency distribution of slope angles, fractional distance to the apex, gullying index, volume of debris mobilized, vertical erosion rate) tend to increase with increasing deglaciation age and the duration of paraglacial activity. Vegetation colonization is a response to stabilization of the ground surface and the drying up of the ground surface due to dead‐ice melting. The full sequence of paraglacial slope adjustment (gully incision‐stabilization) may occur rapidly at the study site, i.e. within two decades. Finally, a lateral morphogenic sequence is proposed showing the importance of paraglacial processes at the onset of the deglaciation. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.