A copula-based multivariate analysis of Canadian RCM projected changes to flood characteristics for northeastern Canada

In the present work, climate change impacts on three spring (March–June) flood characteristics, i.e. peak, volume and duration, for 21 northeast Canadian basins are evaluated, based on Canadian regional climate model (CRCM) simulations. Conventional univariate frequency analysis for each flood characteristic and copula based bivariate frequency analysis for mutually correlated pairs of flood characteristics (i.e. peak–volume, peak–duration and volume–duration) are carried out. While univariate analysis is focused on return levels of selected return periods (5-, 20- and 50-year), the bivariate analysis is focused on the joint occurrence probabilities P1 and P2 of the three pairs of flood characteristics, where P1 is the probability of any one characteristic in a pair exceeding its threshold and P2 is the probability of both characteristics in a pair exceeding their respective thresholds at the same time. The performance of CRCM is assessed by comparing ERA40 (the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 40-year reanalysis) driven CRCM simulated flood statistics and univariate and bivariate frequency analysis results for the current 1970–1999 period with those observed at selected 16 gauging stations for the same time period. The Generalized Extreme Value distribution is selected as the marginal distribution for flood characteristics and the Clayton copula for developing bivariate distribution functions. The CRCM performs well in simulating mean, standard deviation, and 5-, 20- and 50-year return levels of flood characteristics. The joint occurrence probabilities are also simulated well by the CRCM. A five-member ensemble of the CRCM simulated streamflow for the current (1970–1999) and future (2041–2070) periods, driven by five different members of a Canadian Global Climate Model ensemble, are used in the assessment of projected changes, where future simulations correspond to A2 scenario. The results of projected changes, in general, indicate increases in the marginal values, i.e. return levels of flood characteristics, and the joint occurrence probabilities P1 and P2. It is found that the future marginal values of flood characteristics and P1 and P2 values corresponding to longer return periods will be affected more by anthropogenic climate change than those corresponding to shorter return periods but the former ones are subjected to higher uncertainties.     

The occurrence of Greigite in sediments from Loch Lomond

Greigite has been identified in the sediments of Loch Lomond using X-ray diffraction. Greigite is the dominant magnetic mineral in the oldest sediments recovered, while magnetite predominates in the younger sediments which had previously been used for palaeomagnetic secular variation studies. A layer of sediment in between these two magnetic mineral regimes has very low magnetic concentrations, probably as a consequence of magnetite dissolution associated with sulphide rich pore-waters produced at the time of a marine incursion. The greigite largely oxidises once the sediment is exposed to air, but if freeze dried the greigite becomes surprisingly stable. Following freeze drying the greigite can be heated to 280°C in air before it alters and loses its strong ferrimagnetic properties.     

Watson: A new link in the HE iron chain

Abstract— Watson, which was found in 1972 in South Australia, contains the largest single silicate rock mass seen in any known iron meteorite. A comprehensive study has been completed on this unusual meteorite: petrography, metallography, analyses of the silicate inclusion (whole rock chemical analysis, INAA, RNAA, noble gases, and oxygen isotope analysis) and mineral compositions (by electron microprobe and ion microprobe). The whole rock has a composition of an H-chondrite minus the normal H-group metal and troilite content. The oxygen isotope composition is that of the silicates in the HE iron meteorites and lies along an oxygen isotope fractionation line with the H-group chondrites. Trace elements in the metal confirm Watson is a new HE iron. Whole rock Watson silicate shows an enrichment in K and P (each ～2X H-chondrites). The silicate inclusion has a highly equilibrated igneous (peridotite-like) texture with olivine largely poikilitic within low-Ca pyroxene: olivine (Fa₂₀), opx (Fs₁₇Wo₃), capx (Fs₉Wo₄₁) (with very fine exsolution lamellae), antiperthite feldspar (An_1–Or₅) with <1 μm exsolution lamellae (An_1–3Or_>40), shocked feldspar with altered stoichiometry, minor whitlockite (also a poorly characterized interstitial phosphate-rich phase) and chromite, and only traces of metal and troilite. The individual silicate minerals have normal chondritic REE patterns, but whitlockite has a remarkable REE pattern. It is very enriched in light REE (La is 720X C1, and Lu is 90X C1, as opposed to usual chonditic values of ～300X and 100–150X, respectively) with a negative Eu anomaly. The enrichment of whole rock K is expressed both in an unusually high mean modal Or content of the feldspar, Or₁₃, and in the presence of antiperthite. Whole rock trace element data for the silicate mass support the petrography. Watson silicate was an H-chondrite engulfed by metal and melted at > 1550 °C. A flat refractory lithophile and flat REE pattern (at ～1x average H-chondrites) indicate that melting took place in a relatively closed system. Immiscible metal and sulfide were occluded into the surrounding metal host. Below 1100 °C, the average cooling rate is estimated to have been ～1000 °C/Ma; Widmanstätten structure formed, any igneous zoning in the silicates was equilibrated, and feldspar and pyroxene exsolution took place. Cooling to below 300 °C was completed by 3.5 Ga B. P. At 8 Ma, a shock event took place causing some severe metal deformation and forming local melt pockets of schreibersite/metal. This event likely caused the release of Watson into interplanetary space. The time of this event, 8Ma, corresponds to the peak frequency of exposure ages of the H-chondrites. This further confirms the link between HE irons and the H-chondrites, a relationship already indicated by their common oxygen isotope source. Watson metal structures are very similar to those in Kodaikanal. Watson, Kodaikanal and Netschaëvo form the young group of HE meteorites (ages 3.7 ± 0.2 Ga). They appear to represent steps in a chain of events that must have taken place repeatedly on the HE parent body or bodies from which they came: chondrite engulfed in metal (Netschaëvo); chondrite melted within metal (Watson); and finally melted silicate undergoing strong fractionation with the fractionated material emplaced as globules within metal (Kodaikanal). Watson fills an important gap in understanding the sequence of events that took place in the evolution of the IIE-H parent body(ies). This association of H-chondrite with HE metal suggests a surface, or near surface process-a suggestion made by several other researchers.     

Noble gases in presolar diamonds II: Component abundances reflect thermal processing

Abstract— Using the isotopic compositions derived in Huss and Lewis, 1994a (Paper I), abundances of the P3, HL, and P6 noble-gas components were determined for 15 diamond separates from primitive chondrites of 8 chondrite classes. Within a meteorite class, the relative abundances of these components correlate with the petrologic subtype of the host meteorite, indicating that metamorphism is primarily responsible for the variations. Relative abundances of P3, HL, and P6 among diamond samples can be understood in terms of thermal processing of a single mixture of diamonds like those now found in CI and CM2 chondrites. With relatively gentle heating, primitive diamonds first lose their low-temperature P3 gases and a “labile” fraction of the HL component. Mass loss associated with release of these components produces an increase in the HL and P6 content of the remaining diamond relative to unprocessed diamond. Higher temperatures initiate destruction of the main HL carrier, while the HL content of the surviving diamonds remains essentially constant. At the same time, the P6 carrier begins to preferentially lose light noble gases. Meteorites that have experienced metamorphic temperatures ?650 °C have lost essentially all of their presolar diamond through chemical reactions with surrounding minerals. The P3 abundance seems to be a function only of the maximum temperature experienced by the diamonds and thus is independent of the nature of the surrounding environment. If all classes inherited the same mixture of primitive diamonds, then P3 abundances would tie together the metamorphic scales in different meteorite classes. However, if the P3 abundance indicates a higher temperature than do other thermometers applicable to the host meteorite, then the P3 abundance may contain information about heating prior to accretion. Diamonds in the least metamorphosed EH, CV, and CO chondrites seem to carry a record of pre-accretionary thermal processing.     

Accuracy of tretyakov precipitation gauge: Result of wmo intercomparison

The Tretyakov non-recording precipitation gauge has been used historically as the official precipitation measurement instrument in the Russian (formerly the USSR) climatic and hydrological station network and in a number of other European countries. From 1986 to 1993, the accuracy and performance of this gauge were evaluated during the WMO Solid Precipitation Measurement Intercomparison at 11 stations in Canada, the USA, Russia, Germany, Finland, Romania and Croatia. The double fence intercomparison reference (DFIR) was the reference standard used at all the Intercomparison stations in the Intercomparison. The Intercomparison data collected at the different sites are compatible with respect to the catch ratio (measured/DFIR) for the same gauge, when compared using mean wind speed at the height of the gauge orifice during the observation period. The Intercomparison data for the Tretyakov gauge were compiled from measurements made at these WMO intercomparison sites. These data represent a variety of climates, terrains and exposures. The effects of environmental factors, such as wind speed, wind direction, type of precipitation and temperature, on gauge catch ratios were investigated. Wind speed was found to be the most important factor determining the gauge catch and air temperature had a secondary effect when precipitation was classified into snow, mixed and rain. The results of the analysis of gauge catch ratio versus wind speed and temperature on a daily time step are presented for various types of precipitation. Independent checks of the correction equations against the DFIR have been conducted at those Intercomparison stations and a good agreement (difference less than 10%) has been obtained. The use of such adjustment procedures should significantly improve the accuracy and homogeneity of gauge-measured precipitation data over large regions of the former USSR and central Europe.     

Holocene millennial/centennial‐scale multiproxy cyclicity in temperate eastern Australian estuary sediments

We have undertaken a comparative study of down‐core variation in multiproxy palaeoclimate data (magnetic susceptibility, calcium carbonate content and total organic carbon) from two coastal water bodies (Myall and Tuggerah Lakes) in temperate eastern Australia to identify local, regional and global‐forcing factors within Holocene estuarine sediments. The two lakes lie within the same temperate climate zone adjacent to the Tasman Sea, but are not part of the same catchment and drain different geological provinces. One is essentially a freshwater coastal lake whereas the other is a brackish back‐barrier lagoon. Despite these differences, data from two sites in each of the two lakes have allowed us to investigate and compare cyclicity in otherwise uniform, single facies sediments within the frequency range of 200–2000 years, limited by the sedimentation rate within the lakes and our sample requirements. We have auto‐ and cross‐correlated strong periodicities at ～360 years, ～500–530 years, ～270–290 years, 420–450 years and ～210 years, and subordinate periods of ～650 years, 1200–1400 years and ～1800 years. Our thesis is that climate is the only regionally available mechanism available to control common millennial and centennial scale cyclicity in these sediments, given the geographical and other differences. However, regional climate may not be the dominant effect at any single time and either location. Within the range of frequency spectral peaks we have identified, several fall within known long‐term periodical fluctuations of sun spot activity; however, feedback loops associated with short‐term orbital variation, such as Dansgaard–Oeschger cycles, and the relationship between these and palaeo‐ENSO variation, are also possible contributors. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

THE VERKHNE DNIEPROVSK IRON METEORITE SPECIMENS IN THE VIENNA COLLECTION AND THE CONFUSION OF VERKHNE DNIEPROVSK WITH AUGUSTINOVKA

It is now a hundred years since a small amount of meteoritic material labelled Verkhne Dnieprovsk was first described. Since then the material has been controversial, due to the corroded character and the very limited amount of material known. Authentic samples, totalling 8 g, have been identified in the Vienna collection, which confirm that Verkhne Dnieprovsk is a unique meteorite, both in its composition, belonging to group II E, and in its heavily shocked and distorted structure. The shock-produced structures include micromelts with a phosphorus gradient, suggesting that the melts originated in situ from mm-sized schreibersite crystals. Unfortunately, no additional information as to location and circumstances of find was discovered at this late date. Further work will probably require field work and interviews on the site and/or studies of Russian archives.     

Lower hybrid wave model for aurora

In the framework of non-linear fluid theory we use a lower hybrid (LH) wave of the form as a pump which interacts with the small fluctuations with the low-frequency vibrations _i or =0, where _i , is the hydrogen ion-cyclotron (HIC) gyrofrequency. The ponderomotive force generated by the beating of the high-frequency pump wave ₀ and the sideband LH waves (±₀) produces a non-linear coupling between the high- and low-frequency motions of electrons and ions. Under certain conditions the HIC waves and the zero-frequency waves both become parametrically unstable and start to grow. These excited waves then heat the ions by stochastic acceleration in the transverse direction, thus explaining the formation of ion comics along the auroral field lines. Electrons would be heated in the parallel direction directly by the pump field as well as by low-frequency waves. Thus a single mechanism can explain the existence of ion-cyclotron waves, zero-frequency waves, ion conics, and energetic electrons along the auroral field lines.