Seasonal prediction of Indian summer monsoon in NCEP coupled and uncoupled model

This study has identified probable factors that govern ISMR predictability. Furthermore, extensive analysis has been performed to evaluate factors leading to the predictability aspect of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) using uncoupled and coupled version of National Centers for Environmental Prediction Coupled Forecast System (CFS). It has been found that the coupled version (CFS) has outperformed the uncoupled version [Global Forecast System (GFS)] of the model in terms of prediction of rainfall over Indian land points. Even the spatial distribution of rainfall is much better represented in the CFS as compared to that of GFS. Even though these model skills are inadequate for the reliable forecasting of monsoon, it imparts the capacious knowledge about the model fidelity. The mean monsoon features and its evolution in terms of rainfall and large-scale circulation along with the zonal and meridional shear of winds, which govern the strength of the monsoon, are relatively closer to the observation in the CFS as compared to the GFS. Furthermore, sea surface temperature–rainfall relation is fairly realistic and intense in the coupled version of the model (CFS). It is found that the CFS is able to capture El Niño Southern Oscillation ISMR (ENSO-ISMR) teleconnections much strongly as compared to GFS; however, in the case of Indian Ocean Dipole ISMR teleconnections, GFS has the larger say. Coupled models have to be fine-tuned for the prediction of the transition of El Niño as well as the strength of the mature phase has to be improved. Thus, to sum up, CFS tends to have better predictive skill on account of following three factors: (a) better ability to replicate mean features, (b) comparatively better representation of air–sea interactions, and (c) much better portrayal of ENSO-ISMR teleconnections. This study clearly brings out that coupled model is the only way forward for improving the ISMR prediction skill. However, coupled model’s spurious representation of SST variability and mean model bias are detrimental in seasonal prediction.     

InSAR analysis of a blind thrust rupture and related active folding: the 1999 Ain Temouchent earthquake (M w 5.7, Algeria) case study

We study the surface deformation associated with the 22 December 1999 earthquake, a moderate sized but damaging event at Ain Temouchent (northwestern Algeria) using Interferometric Satellite Aperture Radar images (InSAR). The mainshock focal mechanism solution indicates reverse faulting with a NE–SW trending rupture comparable to other major seismic events of this section of the Africa–Eurasia plate boundary. Previously, the earthquake fault parameters were, however, poorly known because no aftershocks were precisely determined and no coseismic surface ruptures were observed in the field. Using a pair of ERS data with small baseline and short temporal separation in the ascending orbit we obtained an interferogram that shows the coseismic surface displacement field despite poor coherence. The interferogram measures four fringes and displays an ellipse-shaped lobe with ∼11 cm peak line-of-sight displacement. The elastic modeling using a boundary element method (Poly3Dinv) indicate coseismic slip reaching up to 1 m at 5 km depth on the N 57° E trending, dipping 32° NW Tafna thrust fault. The geodetic estimate of seismic moment is 4.7 × 10¹⁷ N m. (Mw 5.7) in is good agreement with seismological results. The elliptical shape of the surface displacement field coincides with the NE–SW trending Berdani fault-related fold. The consistency between the geological observations and InSAR solution shed light on the precise earthquake location and related Tafna fault parameters.     

Colonisation of epilithic diatom population of the River Taff, South Wales, U.K.

1. A light and scanning electron microscopic study of the structure of epilithic diatom communities was carried out at two sites on the River Taff, South Wales, an upstream unpolluted site (Site 1) and a downstream polluted site (Site 2). 2. Community structure at the micro-scale revealed that, although communities at both sites were similar in terms of species present (similarity indices ranging between 0.44 and 0.96), they were very different with respect to their physical structure. 3. The traditional approach in studying epilithic diatom communities ignores information relating to community structure. The combination of light and scanning electron microscopy proved to be most useful for studying the epilithic diatom communities. 4. The examination of community succession on stone substrata showed that communities were highly dynamic on a weekly time scale, which suggests that the “age” of a substratum is a very important determinant of the attaching communities. A change from a prostate, two-dimensional community structure to an erect, three-dimensional community structure, and a shift from the dominance of epilithic diatoms to the dominance of epiphytic diatoms were noted. Such a change was more noticed at the polluted downstream site, possibly due to a higher rate of surface pre-conditioning and biofilm production at this site than at the unpolluted upstream site.     

Contemporary 14C radiocarbon levels of oxygenated polybrominated diphenyl ethers (O-PBDEs) isolated in sponge-cyanobacteria associations

Considerable debate surrounds the sources of oxygenated polybrominated diphenyl ethers (O-PBDEs) in wildlife as to whether they are naturally produced or result from anthropogenic industrial activities. Natural radiocarbon (¹⁴C) abundance has proven to be a powerful tool to address this problem as recently biosynthesized compounds contain contemporary (i.e. modern) amounts of atmospheric radiocarbon; whereas industrial chemicals, mostly produced from fossil fuels, contain no detectable ¹⁴C. However, few compounds isolated from organisms have been analyzed for their radiocarbon content. To provide a baseline, we analyzed the ¹⁴C content of four O-PBDEs. These compounds, 6-OH-BDE47, 2′-OH-BDE68, 2′,6-diOH-BDE159, and a recently identified compound, 2′-MeO-6-OH-BDE120, were isolated from the tropical marine sponges Dysidea granulosa and Lendenfeldia dendyi. The modern radiocarbon content of their chemical structures (i.e. diphenyl ethers, C₁₂H₂₂O) indicates that they are naturally produced. This adds to a growing baseline on, at least, the sources of these unusual compounds.     

Recharge of the plio-quaternary water table aquifer in Tunisian chotts region estimated from stable isotopes

The hydrodynamic groundwater data and stable isotopes of water have been used jointly for better understanding of upward leakage and mixing processes in the Djerid aquifer system (southwestern Tunisia). The aquifer system is composed of the upper unconfined Plio-Quaternary (PQ) aquifer, the intermediate (semi-)confined Complex Terminal (CT) aquifer and the deeper confined Continental Intercalaire (CI) aquifer. A total of 41 groundwater samples from the CT and PQ aquifers were collected during June 2001. The stable isotope composition of waters establishes that the CT deep groundwater (depleted as compared to present Nefta local rainfall) is ancient water recharged during late Quaternary time. The relatively recent water in the shallow PQ aquifer is composed of mixed water resulting from upward leakage and sporadic meteoric recharge. In order to characterize the meteoric input signal for PQ in the study area, rainfall water samples were collected during 4 years (2000–2003) at the Nefta meteorological station. Weighted mean values of isotopic contents with respect to rainfall amounts have been computed. Despite the short collection period in the study area, results agree with those found in Beni Abbes (southwestern Algerian Sahara) by Fontes on 9 years of rainfall surveillance. Stable isotopic relationships provide clear evidence of shallow PQ aquifer replenishment by deep CT groundwater. The ¹⁸O/upward leakage rate allowed the identification of distinctive PQ waters related to CT aquifer configuration (confined in the western part of the study area, semi-permeable in the eastern part). These trends were confirmed by the relation ¹⁸O/TDS. The isotope balance model indicated a contribution of up to 75% of the deep CT groundwater to the upper PQ aquifer in the western study area, between Nefta and Hazoua.