Seasonal prediction of Indian summer monsoon in NCEP coupled and uncoupled model

This study has identified probable factors that govern ISMR predictability. Furthermore, extensive analysis has been performed to evaluate factors leading to the predictability aspect of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) using uncoupled and coupled version of National Centers for Environmental Prediction Coupled Forecast System (CFS). It has been found that the coupled version (CFS) has outperformed the uncoupled version [Global Forecast System (GFS)] of the model in terms of prediction of rainfall over Indian land points. Even the spatial distribution of rainfall is much better represented in the CFS as compared to that of GFS. Even though these model skills are inadequate for the reliable forecasting of monsoon, it imparts the capacious knowledge about the model fidelity. The mean monsoon features and its evolution in terms of rainfall and large-scale circulation along with the zonal and meridional shear of winds, which govern the strength of the monsoon, are relatively closer to the observation in the CFS as compared to the GFS. Furthermore, sea surface temperature–rainfall relation is fairly realistic and intense in the coupled version of the model (CFS). It is found that the CFS is able to capture El Niño Southern Oscillation ISMR (ENSO-ISMR) teleconnections much strongly as compared to GFS; however, in the case of Indian Ocean Dipole ISMR teleconnections, GFS has the larger say. Coupled models have to be fine-tuned for the prediction of the transition of El Niño as well as the strength of the mature phase has to be improved. Thus, to sum up, CFS tends to have better predictive skill on account of following three factors: (a) better ability to replicate mean features, (b) comparatively better representation of air–sea interactions, and (c) much better portrayal of ENSO-ISMR teleconnections. This study clearly brings out that coupled model is the only way forward for improving the ISMR prediction skill. However, coupled model’s spurious representation of SST variability and mean model bias are detrimental in seasonal prediction.     

One-Dimensional Consolidation of Sedimented Stowed Pond Ash

Use of fly ash locked in the ash ponds in geotechnical applications such as stowing or backfilling of the mines is an attractive alternative to solve the disposal problem. Before it is used as a stowing or backfilling material, the response of the fly ash?to imposed load must be determined in order to assess its load taking ability. The present study examines the effect of time and incremental load on the consolidation characteristics of the sedimented stowed pond ash using a fixed ring consolidometer. The important parameters, viz. rate of settlement, consolidation coefficients and void ratio, etc. of the hydraulically stowed pond ash collected after 7, 14, 21, 28 and 35?days of stowing under step incremental loads are determined. The study revealed that 60.42–84.87% settlement of the sedimented stowed pond ash takes place in the initial 1?min of the loading. In addition, it is observed that the coefficient of consolidation of the sedimented stowed pond ash, which varies in the range of 0.0195–0.1882?cm²/min, is comparatively low and decreases with the increment of applied load and time. This indicates that the structures lying above the stowed pond ash mass will undergo gradual settling and not suffer large deformation.     

Comparison of theory and in situ observations for electron and ion distributions in the near wake of the explorer 31 and AE-C satellites

Measurements of electron density, plasma potential, and mean ion mass from the Explorer 31 satellite and measurements of ion current, plasma potential, and ion composition from the Atmosphere Explorer C (AE-C) satellite were used in a comparative study with theory regarding the charged particle distribution in the near wake of an ionospheric satellite. The theoretical wake model of Parker (1976) has been used in the study. It is shown that theory and experiment agree fairly well in the angle-of-attack range between 90 and 135°. In that angular range even the neutral approximation (which treats ions as if they were neutral particles thus ignoring the influence of the electric field) gives fair agreement with the measurements. In the maximum rarefaction zone (145 < θ < 180°), however, the theoretical model overestimates the measured ion depletion (AE-C measurements) by several orders of magnitude. A similar conclusion is drawn from the comparison between theory and the Explorer 31 electron measurements where the theory also significantly overestimates the electron depletion. The study indicates that the discrepancies are mainly due to the use of a steady-state theory and of a single ion equation (using a mean ion mass). It is recommended that improved agreement between theory and experiment be obtained by the use of the timedependent Vlasov-Poisson equations with separate equations for the various ion species.     

Petrography and geochemistry of the Upper Cretaceous Nubia sandstones,Eastern Desert,Egypt: implications for provenance,paleoweathering, and tectonic setting

The provenance of the Upper Cretaceous Nubia sandstones from four vertical sections along Qena-Safaga and Qena-Quseir roads in central Eastern Desert of Egypt was investigated based on their modal composition and geochemical data. The Nubia sandstone samples are abundant in quartz content with low feldspar and lithic fragments. Their average modal composition (Q_94.2F_1.3R_4.5) classifies them as quartz arenites with subordinate quartz wackes which is consistent with geochemistry data. The average CIA, CIW, PIA, and Th/U ratio values revealed that the intensity of weathering in the studied areas was similar, varying from moderate to intensive weathering, and may reflect low-relief and warm humid climatic conditions in the source area. The ICV (<?1) and SiO₂/Al₂O₃ ratio (>?5) indicate that the Nubia sandstones are texturally and mineralogically mature. The petrographical and geochemical analyses suggest that the Nubia sandstones were mainly derived from felsic (granitic) and/or recycled sand sources. The major element-based multidimensional tectonic discrimination diagrams suggested the Nubia sandstones were deposited in a passive continental margin of a syn-rift basin. This result agreed with the general geology of central Eastern Desert of Egypt during the Upper Cretaceous.     

Post-collision neogene volcanism of the Eastern Rif (Morocco): magmatic evolution through time

Neogene volcanism in the Eastern Rif (Morocco) comprises a series of calc-alkaline, potassic calc-alkaline, shoshonitic and alkaline volcanic rocks. According to new stratigraphical, along with new and previous chronological and geochemical data, the orogenic volcanism was successively (1) calc-alkaline (basaltic andesites and andesites: 13.1 to 12.5 Ma, rhyolites: 9.8 Ma), (2) K-calc-alkaline (basaltic andesitic to rhyolitic lavas and granodiorites: 9.0 to 6.6 Ma), and (3) shoshonitic (absarokites, shoshonites, latites, trachytes: 7.0 to 5.4 Ma). The later Pliocene volcanism was basaltic and alkaline (5.6 to 1.5 Ma). The calc-alkaline and K-calc-alkaline series exhibit lower K₂O (0.7–5.3 wt.%), Nb (8–19 ppm) contents and higher ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr (0.70773–0.71016) than the shoshonitic series (K₂O: 2.4–7.2 wt.%, Nb: 21–38 ppm, ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr: 0.70404–0.70778). Pliocene alkaline basalts have a sodic tendency (Na₂O/K₂O: 1.7–3.5), high Nb content (up to 52 ppm), and low ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratio (0.70360–0.70413). The variations through time of K₂O, Nb and Sr isotopic ratio reflect different mantle sources: (i) calc-alkaline, potassic calc-alkaline and shoshonitic series are derived from a mantle source modified by older subduction, (ii) alkaline basalts are derived mainly from an enriched mantle source. Through time, incompatible elements such as Nb increased while ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr decreased, suggesting a decreasing influence of metasomatized mantle (inherited subduction). Such evolution is related to the post-collision regimes operating in this area, and could be linked to the succession of extensional, compressional and strike-slip fault tectonics.     

Recharge of the plio-quaternary water table aquifer in Tunisian chotts region estimated from stable isotopes

The hydrodynamic groundwater data and stable isotopes of water have been used jointly for better understanding of upward leakage and mixing processes in the Djerid aquifer system (southwestern Tunisia). The aquifer system is composed of the upper unconfined Plio-Quaternary (PQ) aquifer, the intermediate (semi-)confined Complex Terminal (CT) aquifer and the deeper confined Continental Intercalaire (CI) aquifer. A total of 41 groundwater samples from the CT and PQ aquifers were collected during June 2001. The stable isotope composition of waters establishes that the CT deep groundwater (depleted as compared to present Nefta local rainfall) is ancient water recharged during late Quaternary time. The relatively recent water in the shallow PQ aquifer is composed of mixed water resulting from upward leakage and sporadic meteoric recharge. In order to characterize the meteoric input signal for PQ in the study area, rainfall water samples were collected during 4 years (2000–2003) at the Nefta meteorological station. Weighted mean values of isotopic contents with respect to rainfall amounts have been computed. Despite the short collection period in the study area, results agree with those found in Beni Abbes (southwestern Algerian Sahara) by Fontes on 9 years of rainfall surveillance. Stable isotopic relationships provide clear evidence of shallow PQ aquifer replenishment by deep CT groundwater. The ¹⁸O/upward leakage rate allowed the identification of distinctive PQ waters related to CT aquifer configuration (confined in the western part of the study area, semi-permeable in the eastern part). These trends were confirmed by the relation ¹⁸O/TDS. The isotope balance model indicated a contribution of up to 75% of the deep CT groundwater to the upper PQ aquifer in the western study area, between Nefta and Hazoua.     

Colonisation of epilithic diatom population of the River Taff, South Wales, U.K.

1. A light and scanning electron microscopic study of the structure of epilithic diatom communities was carried out at two sites on the River Taff, South Wales, an upstream unpolluted site (Site 1) and a downstream polluted site (Site 2). 2. Community structure at the micro-scale revealed that, although communities at both sites were similar in terms of species present (similarity indices ranging between 0.44 and 0.96), they were very different with respect to their physical structure. 3. The traditional approach in studying epilithic diatom communities ignores information relating to community structure. The combination of light and scanning electron microscopy proved to be most useful for studying the epilithic diatom communities. 4. The examination of community succession on stone substrata showed that communities were highly dynamic on a weekly time scale, which suggests that the “age” of a substratum is a very important determinant of the attaching communities. A change from a prostate, two-dimensional community structure to an erect, three-dimensional community structure, and a shift from the dominance of epilithic diatoms to the dominance of epiphytic diatoms were noted. Such a change was more noticed at the polluted downstream site, possibly due to a higher rate of surface pre-conditioning and biofilm production at this site than at the unpolluted upstream site.     

Electron depletion in the wake of ionospheric spacecraft—A comparison between results from Langmuir probes and antennas

In situ observations of the electron depletion in the wakes of satellites and rockets in the ionosphere using Langmuir type probes and antennas are analyzed and compared. The quantitative degree of agreement between the results is demonstrated and discussed. One consequence is an improved interpretation of results previously presented for the OGO II Satellite wake.