Recent developments in technological forecasting

Technological forecasting means the prediction of characteristics or use of technology. The methods used by technological forecasters are in principle no different from those used by forecasters in other application areas. However, the unique problems of the field require that the methods be adapted to those problems. This paper discusses recent developments involving refinements in the methods which have been in use for the past several decades. It also describes some important recent work on estimating upper limits to the progress of technologies, and on quantitative measures of multi-attribute technologies. Finally, it discusses several issues common to all forecasting application areas, as they are dealt with in technological forecasting. These issues include validation, disasters of forecasting, determinism in forecasting, and some examples of forecasts with practical applications.     

Chemical characterization of fine particulate matter during peak PM10 episodes in Apulia (South Italy)

Some peak PM10 episodes, occurred during PM monitoring campaigns performed on October 2005 and February and June 2006 in Bari town, have been characterized. Moreover back trajectories of air masses and Principal Component Analyses were applied. Three of the peak PM10 episodes investigated were related to local emissions of primary pollutants during poor atmospheric dispersion conditions. The other two peak PM10 episodes considered are related with long range transport air masses toward Apulia region: in one case the chemical characterization and the back trajectories analysis indicate that high PM10 value detected is due to the Saharan dust advection in the Apulia region; in the other case air masses with different origin give rise to high PM10 value.Moreover PM10 daily mean concentrations, presented in this paper collected from January 2005 to August 2007 and obtained by automatic device in six stations of air quality monitoring networks in Bari territory, do not show a seasonal trend for PM10 concentrations, contrary to the PM10 trend shown in the towns of North Italy. This can be explained mostly considering that our region presents generally meteo-climatic conditions that favour pollutants dispersion.     

Quantifying the building stock from optical high-resolution satellite imagery for assessing disaster risk

This study uses high-resolution (HR) satellite imagery to quantify the stock of buildings, referred herein as building stock. The risk assessment requires information on the natural hazards and on the element at risk, that is the building stock in this article. This study combines (1) texture-based image processing to map built-up areas, (2) statistical sampling that allows locating the building samples and (3) photo-interpretation to encoding building footprints. Statistical inference is then used to quantify the building stock per class of building size. Legaspi in the Philippines is used as a case study. The results show that texture-based computer algorithms provide accurate area estimations of the built-up, that the detail of HR imagery allows the mapping of single buildings using photo-interpretation, and that a systematic sampling approach that uses building encoding and built-up maps can be used to quantify the building stock.     

Enhanced data and methods for improving open and free global population grids: putting ‘leaving no one behind’ into practice

ABSTRACT

Data on global population distribution are a strategic resource currently in high demand in an age of new Development Agendas that call for universal inclusiveness of people. However, quality, detail, and age of census data varies significantly by country and suffers from shortcomings that propagate to derived population grids and their applications. In this work, the improved capabilities of recent remote sensing-derived global settlement data to detect and mitigate major discrepancies with census data is explored. Open layers mapping built-up presence were used to revise census units deemed as ‘unpopulated’ and to harmonize population distribution along coastlines. Automated procedures to detect and mitigate these anomalies, while minimizing changes to census geometry, preserving the regional distribution of population, and the overall counts were developed, tested, and applied. The two procedures employed for the detection of deficiencies in global census data obtained high rates of true positives, after verification and validation. Results also show that the targeted anomalies were significantly mitigated and are encouraging for further uses of free and open geospatial data derived from remote sensing in complementing and improving conventional sources of fundamental population statistics.     

Landscape response to tectonic and climatic forcing in the foredeep of the southern Apennines,Italy: insights from Quaternary stratigraphy,quantitative geomorphic analysis,and denudation rate proxies

We present new data about the morphological and stratigraphic evolution and the rates of fluvial denudation of the Tavoliere di Puglia plain, a low‐relief landscape representing the northernmost sector of the Pliocene‐Pleistocene foredeep of the southern Apennines. The study area is located between the easternmost part of the southern Apennine chain and the Gargano promontory and it is characterized by several orders of terraced fluvial deposits, disconformably overlying lower Pleistocene marine clay and organized in a staircase geometry, which recorded the emersion and the long‐term incision history of this sector since mid‐Pleistocene times. We used the spatial and altimetric distribution of several orders of middle to late Pleistocene fluvial terraces in order to perform paleotopographic reconstruction and GIS‐aided eroded volumes estimates. Then, we estimated denudation rates on the basis of the terraces chronostratigraphy, supported by published OSL and AAR dating. Middle to upper Pleistocene denudation rates estimated by means of such an approach are slightly lower than 0.1 mm yr^‐1, in good agreement with short‐term data from direct and indirect evaluation of suspended sediment yield. The analysis of longitudinal river profiles using the stream power erosion model provided additional information on the incision rates of the studied area. Middle to late Quaternary uplift rates (about 0.15 mm yr^‐1), calculated on the basis of the elevation above sea level of marine deposits outcropping in the easternmost sector of the study area, are quite similar to the erosion rates average value, thus suggesting a steady‐state fluvial incision. The approach adopted in this work has demonstrated that erosion rates traditionally obtained by quantitative geomorphic analysis and k_sn estimations can be successfully integrated to quantify rates of tectonic or geomorphological processes of a landscape approaching steady‐state equilibrium. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An inverse procedure to estimate transmissivity from heads and SP signals

Experimental hydraulic heads and electrical (self-potential) signals associated with a pumping test were used in an inverse model to estimate the transmissivity distribution of a real aquifer. Several works reported in the literature show that there is a relatively good linear relationship between the hydraulic heads in the aquifer and electrical signals measured at the ground surface. In this experimental test field, first, the current coupling coefficient was determined by the best fit between experimental and modeled self-potential signals at the end of the pumping phase. Soon afterward, with the hydraulic heads obtained from the self-potential signals, the transmissivity distribution of the aquifer was conditioned by means an inverse model based on the successive linear estimator (SLE). To further substantiate the estimated T field from the SLE analysis, we analyzed the drawdown rate, the derivative of the drawdown with respect to the ln(t), because the drawdown rate is highly sensitive to the variability in the transmissivity field. In our opinion, these results show that self-potential signals allow the monitoring of subsurface flow in the course of pumping experiments, and that electrical potentials serve as a good complement to piezometric observations to condition and characterize the transmissivity distribution of an aquifer.     

Peak runoff contributing area as hydrological signature of the probability distribution of floods

For the analysis of hydrological extremes and particularly in flood prediction, deeper investigation is needed on the relative effects of different hydrological processes acting at the basin scale in different hydroclimatic areas of the world. In this framework, the theoretical derivation of flood distribution shows a great potential for development and knowledge advancement. In addition, another promising path of investigation is represented by the use of distributed hydrological models via simulation modelling (including Monte Carlo, discrete event and continuous simulation). In this paper results of a theoretically derived flood frequency distribution are analyzed and compared with the results of a simulation scheme that uses a distributed hydrological model (DREAM) in cascade with a rainfall generator (IRP). The numerical simulation allows the reproduction of a large number of extreme events and provides insight into the main control for flood generation mechanisms with particular emphasis to the peak runoff contributing areas, highlighting the relevance of soil texture and morphology in different climatic environments. The proposed methodology is applied here to the Agri and the Bradano basin, in Southern Italy.