A resampling strategy based on bootstrap to reduce the effect of large blunders in GPS absolute positioning

In the absence of obstacles, a GPS device is generally able to provide continuous and accurate estimates of position, while in urban scenarios buildings can generate multipath and echo-only phenomena that severely affect the continuity and the accuracy of the provided estimates. Receiver autonomous integrity monitoring (RAIM) techniques are able to reduce the negative consequences of large blunders in urban scenarios, but require both a good redundancy and a low contamination to be effective. In this paper a resampling strategy based on bootstrap is proposed as an alternative to RAIM, in order to estimate accurately position in case of low redundancy and multiple blunders: starting with the pseudorange measurement model, at each epoch the available measurements are bootstrapped—that is random sampled with replacement—and the generated a posteriori empirical distribution is exploited to derive the final position. Compared to standard bootstrap, in this paper the sampling probabilities are not uniform, but vary according to an indicator of the measurement quality. The proposed method has been compared with two different RAIM techniques on a data set collected in critical conditions, resulting in a clear improvement on all considered figures of merit.     

Comparing expert judgement and numerical criteria for hydrograph evaluation

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between expert judgement and numerical criteria when evaluating hydrological model performance by comparing simulated and observed hydrographs. Using a web-based survey, we collected the visual evaluations of 150 experts on a set of high- and low-flow hydrographs. We then compared these answers with results from 60 numerical criteria. Agreement between experts was found to be more frequent in absolute terms (when rating models) than in relative terms (when comparing models), and better for high flows than for low flows. When comparing the set of 150 expert judgements with numerical criteria, we found that most expert judgements were loosely correlated with a numerical criterion, and that the criterion that best reflects expert judgement varies from expert to expert. Overall, we identified two groups of 10 criteria yielding an equivalent match with the expertise of the 150 participants in low and high flows, respectively. A single criterion common to both groups (the Hydrograph Matching Algorithm with mean absolute error) may represent a good indicator for the overall evaluation of models based on hydrographs. We conclude that none of the numerical criteria examined here can fully replace expert judgement when rating hydrographs, and that both relative and absolute evaluations should be based on the judgement of multiple experts.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis     

Biogeochemical effects of disturbance in shallow water sediment by macroalgae harvesting boats

In the shallow water of Orbetello lagoon, macroalgae harvesting boats produce sediment disturbance. To evaluate the effect of this, during 2001-2002, a trial study was carried out in the lagoon in order to: verify seasonal and diurnal trends in nutrients and estimate the quantity of resuspended organic sediment. An unbalanced and balanced ANOVA (one and two way) analysis was applied. The disturbance did not produce strong and lasting eutrophication effects. In the seasonal survey, dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) and soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) showed significant decreases in disturbed areas at the end of the trial, while the control area showed a constant, significant increase. Dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) and phosphorus (DOP) significantly increased everywhere. In disturbed areas, sediment redox (Eh((NHE))) increased and porosity values decreased, contrary to the control area. Total organic carbon (TOC) remained unchanged in disturbed areas, but increased in the control area, where the C:P ration increased. The fall-out of sedimentary material resuspended by boat action for as far as 50 m from the boat route, was 189 g(dw)m(-2) made up mainly of organic matter. This disturbance could be the cause of change in vegetation in the lagoon.     

Restoration of the eutrophic Orbetello lagoon (Tyrrhenian Sea, Italy): water quality management

The Orbetello lagoon (Tyrrhenian coast, Italy) receives treated urban and land based fishfarms wastewater. The development of severe eutrophication imposed the three main activity adoption focuses on (1) macroalgae harvesting; (2) pumping of water from the sea; (3) confining wastewater to phytotreatment ponds. The responses to these interventions were rapid and macroalgal reduction growth and seagrass return were recorded. Since 1999, a new macroalgal development was recorded. The aim of this research was to discover whether the recent macroalgal growth can be attributed to the continuing wastewater influx from the remaining persistent anthropic sources (PAS) or from the sediment nutrient release. A monitoring programme was carried out between August 1999 and July 2000 in order to measure dissolved inorganic nitrogen and phosphorus in the wastewaters entering into the lagoon and in central lagoon areas, seaweed and seagrass distribution and lagoon N, P annual budgets. The results showed higher N and P values close to PAS. The distribution of the macroalgal species confirms that the available P comes almost entirely from these remaining PAS. In conclusion, the environmental measures adopted produced a significant reduction in algal biomass development in the lagoon; the macroalgal harvesting activities produced a sediment disturbance with following oxidize conditions, which make P unavailable in the lagoon water, excepting close the PAS.     

Analysis of rainfall seasonality from observations and climate models

Two new indicators of rainfall seasonality based on information entropy, the relative entropy (RE) and the dimensionless seasonality index (DSI), together with the mean annual rainfall, are evaluated on a global scale for recently updated precipitation gridded datasets and for historical simulations from coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models. The RE provides a measure of the number of wet months and, for precipitation regimes featuring a distinct wet and dry season, it is directly related to the duration of the wet season. The DSI combines the rainfall intensity with its degree of seasonality and it is an indicator of the extent of the global monsoon region. We show that the RE and the DSI are fairly independent of the time resolution of the precipitation data, thereby allowing objective metrics for model intercomparison and ranking. Regions with different precipitation regimes are classified and characterized in terms of RE and DSI. Comparison of different land observational datasets reveals substantial difference in their local representation of seasonality. It is shown that two-dimensional maps of RE provide an easy way to compare rainfall seasonality from various datasets and to determine areas of interest. Models participating to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project platform, Phase 5, consistently overestimate the RE over tropical Latin America and underestimate it in West Africa, western Mexico and East Asia. It is demonstrated that positive RE biases in a general circulation model are associated with excessively peaked monthly precipitation fractions, too large during the wet months and too small in the months preceding and following the wet season; negative biases are instead due, in most cases, to an excess of rainfall during the premonsoonal months.     

Sedimentary evolution of the Mesozoic continental redbeds using geochemical and mineralogical tools: the case of Upper Triassic to Lowermost Jurassic Monte di Gioiosa mudrocks (Sicily,southern Italy)

The continental redbeds from the Internal Domains of the central-western Mediterranean Chains have an important role in the palaeogeographic and palaeotectonic reconstructions of the Alpine circum-Mediterranean orogen evolution since these redbeds mark the Triassic-Jurassic rift-valley stage of Tethyan rifting. The composition and the sedimentary evolution of the Middle Triassic to Lowermost Jurassic continental redbeds of the San Marco d’Alunzio Unit (Peloritani Mountains, Southern Italy), based on mineralogical and chemical analyses, suggests that the studied mudrock sediments share common features with continental redbeds that constitute the Internal Domains of the Alpine Mediterranean Chains. Phyllosilicates are the main components in the mudrocks. The 10 Å-minerals (illite and micas), the I–S mixed layers, and kaolinite are the most abundant phyllosilicates. The amount of illitic layers in I–S mixed layers coupled with the illite crystallinity values (IC) are typical of high degree of diagenesis, corresponding to a lithostatic/tectonic loading of about 4–5 km. The mineralogical assemblage coupled with the A-CN-K plot suggest post-depositional K-enrichments. Palaeoweathering proxies (PIA and CIW) record intense weathering at the source area. Further, the studied sediments are affected by reworking and recycling processes and, as consequence, it is likely these proxies monitor cumulative effect of weathering. The climate in the early Jurassic favoured recycling and weathering occurred under hot, episodically humid climate with a prolonged dry season. The source-area is the low-grade Paleozoic metasedimentary basement. Mafic supply is minor but not negligible as suggested by provenance proxies.     

A case-study of complex gas–water–rock–pollutants interactions in shallow groundwater: Šalek Valley (Slovenia)

The complex geochemical interactions in the groundwater of the industrial area of Šalek Valley (Slovenia) between natural and anthropogenic fluids were studied by means of major (Ca, Mg, Na, K, HCO₃ ⁻, Cl⁻ and SO₄ ²⁻) and trace elements’ (As , Cd, Cu, Pb, Zn, Hg, Se and V) abundances, geochemical classification and statistical analysis of data. Cation abundances indicate mixing between a dolomitic end-member and an evaporitic or geothermal end-member. Anion abundances indicate mixing between bicarbonate waters and either sulphate-enriched waters (suggesting hydrothermalism) or chlorine-rich waters. Principal component analysis (PCA) allowed the extraction of seven factors, which describe, respectively: water–rock interaction mainly on dolomitic rocks; redox conditions of water; Cd–Zn enrichment in chlorine-rich waters (probably from industrial wastes); hydrothermal conditions in waters close to major faults; Pb and Cu pollution; V and K enrichments, indicating their common organic source; the role of partial pressure of CO₂ dissolved in water, which is highest in three wells with bubbling gases. Average underground discharge rates of solutes from the Valley range between 0.09 t/a (V) and 1.8 × 104 t/a (HCO₃ ⁻) and indicate how natural fluids can significantly contribute to the levels of elements in the environment, in addition to the amount of elements released by human activities.     

Evidence of multiple strain fields beneath the eastern flank of Mt. Etna volcano (Sicily,Italy) deduced from seismic and geodetic data during 2003–2004

We carried out a study of the seismicity and ground deformation occurring on Mt. Etna volcano after the end of the 2002–2003 eruption and before the onset of the 2004–2005 eruption. Data were recorded by the permanent local seismic network run by Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia – Sezione di Catania and by geodetic surveys carried out in July 2003 and July 2004 on the GPS network. Most earthquakes were grouped in two main clusters located in the northeastern and southeastern sectors of the volcano. The areal distribution of seismic energy associated with the recorded earthquakes allowed us to highlight the main seismogenic areas of Mt. Etna. In order to better understand the kinematic processes of the volcano, 3D seismic locations were used to compute fault plane solutions, and a selected dataset was inverted to determine stress and strain tensors. The focal mechanisms in the northeastern sector show clear left-lateral kinematics along an E-W fault plane, consistent with events occurring along the Pernicana Fault system. The fault plane solutions in the southeastern sector show mainly right-lateral kinematics along a NNE and ENE fault plane and left lateral-kinematics along NW fault planes that together suggest roughly E-W oriented compression. Surface ground deformation affecting Mt. Etna measured by GPS surveys highlighted a marked inflation during the same period and exceptionally strong seawards motion of its eastern flank. The 2D geodetic strain tensor distribution was calculated and the results show mainly ENE-WSW extension coupled with WNW-ESE contraction, indicating right-lateral shear along a NW-SE oriented fault plane. The different deformation of the eastern sector of the volcano, as measured by seismicity and ground deformation, must be interpreted by considering the different depths of the two signals. Seismic activity in the southeastern sector of volcano is located between 3 and 8 km b.s.l. and can be associated with a very strong additional E-W compression induced by a pressurizing source just westwards and at the same depth, located by inverting GPS data. Ground deformation, in contrast, is mainly affected by the shallower dynamics of the fast moving eastern flank which produces a shallower opposing E-W extension. The entire dataset shows that two different processes affect the eastern flank at the same time but at different depths; the boundary is clearly located at a depth of 3 km b.s.l. and could represent the décollement surface for the mobile flank.