Vulnerability indicators of sea water intrusion

In this paper, simple indicators of the propensity for sea water intrusion (SWI) to occur (referred to as "SWI vulnerability indicators") are devised. The analysis is based on an existing analytical solution for the steady-state position of a sharp fresh water-salt water interface. Interface characteristics, that is, the wedge toe location and sea water volume, are used in quantifying SWI in both confined and unconfined aquifers. Rates-of-change (partial derivatives of the analytical solution) in the wedge toe or sea water volume are used to quantify the aquifer vulnerability to various stress situations, including (1) sea-level rise; (2) change in recharge (e.g., due to climate change); and (3) change in seaward discharge. A selection of coastal aquifer cases is used to apply the SWI vulnerability indicators, and the proposed methodology produces interpretations of SWI vulnerability that are broadly consistent with more comprehensive investigations. Several inferences regarding SWI vulnerability arise from the analysis, including: (1) sea-level rise impacts are more extensive in aquifers with head-controlled rather than flux-controlled inland boundaries, whereas the opposite is true for recharge change impacts; (2) sea-level rise does not induce SWI in constant-discharge confined aquifers; (3) SWI vulnerability varies depending on the causal factor, and therefore vulnerability composites are needed that differentiate vulnerability to such threats as sea-level rise, climate change, and changes in seaward groundwater discharge. We contend that the approach is an improvement over existing methods for characterizing SWI vulnerability, because the method has theoretical underpinnings and yet calculations are simple, although the coastal aquifer conceptualization is highly idealized.     

Surface wave tomography of the western United States from ambient seismic noise: Rayleigh and Love wave phase velocity maps

We present the results of Rayleigh wave and Love wave phase velocity tomography in the western United States using ambient seismic noise observed at over 250 broad-band stations from the EarthScope/USArray Transportable Array and regional networks. All available three-component time-series for the 12-month span between 2005 November 1 and 2006 October 31 have been cross-correlated to yield estimated empirical Rayleigh and Love wave Green's functions. The Love wave signals were observed with higher average signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) than Rayleigh wave signals and hence cannot be fully explained by the scattering of Rayleigh waves. Phase velocity dispersion curves for both Rayleigh and Love waves between 5 and 40 speriod were measured for each interstation path by applying frequency–time analysis. The average uncertainty and systematic bias of the measurements are estimated using a method based on analysing thousands of nearly linearly aligned station-triplets. We find that empirical Green's functions can be estimated accurately from the negative time derivative of the symmetric component ambient noise cross-correlation without explicit knowledge of the source distribution. The average traveltime uncertainty is less than 1 s at periods shorter than 24 s. We present Rayleigh and Love wave phase speed maps at periods of 8, 12, 16,and 20 s. The maps show clear correlations with major geological structures and qualitative agreement with previous results based on Rayleigh wave group speeds.     

Archaeological age constraints from extrusion ages of obsidian: Examples from the Middle Awash,Ethiopia

Extrusion ages of archaeological obsidian, especially as determined by the ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar method, can provide reliable maximum ages for tool manufacture. In at least one case in the Middle Awash of Ethiopia, freshly extruded obsidian was used for tool making, resulting in useful maximum ages for site occupation. Hydration resulting in mobility of K and/or Ar in glass, and recoil artifacts produced by neutron irradiation, fatally affect most glass shards from volcanic ashes. The much lower surface area to volume ratio of most archaeological obsidian, however, indicates that the affected areas can be manually removed prior to analysis and the recoil and hydration problems can be easily overcome. A more important issue in dating obsidian is that of possible mass-dependent kinetic isotope fractionation during or subsequent to quenching of volcanic glasses. This is evidenced in some cases by sub-atmospheric initial ⁴⁰Ar/³⁶Ar ratios, and more generally in sub-atmospheric ³⁸Ar/³⁶Ar. Resulting bias can be avoided through the use of isochron ages, which do not entail the assumption of an initial value of ⁴⁰Ar/³⁶Ar as is required for plateau ages. Since step heating of glasses often yields limited variability in ⁴⁰Ar:³⁹Ar:³⁶Ar (and therefore little spread on isochrons), another approach is to use an average value for initial ⁴⁰Ar/³⁶Ar, with concomitantly larger uncertainty than is associated with atmospheric ⁴⁰Ar/³⁶Ar, when calculating a plateau age. The ³⁸Ar/³⁶Ar of an un-irradiated subset of our samples validates the inference of kinetic fractionation, and potentially provides a basis for determining initial ⁴⁰Ar/³⁶Ar in samples that fail to yield isochrons, but only in samples lacking magmatic excess ⁴⁰Ar. These approaches allow us to reliably apply the ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar method to volcanic glasses, which has resulted in maximum ages for archaeological sites that are not amenable to traditional geochronological methods. ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar geochronology can also provide information on the geological provenance of the raw material used for tool making, especially when combined with geochemical data.     

Reports from the Smithsonian’s Global Volcanism Network,August 2008

Information included in this summary is based on more detailed reports published in the Bulletin of the Global Volcanism Network, vol. 33, no. 8, August 2008 (on the Internet at ). Edited by scientists at the Smithsonian, this bulletin includes reports provided by a worldwide network of correspondents. The reports contain the names and contact information for all sources. Please note that these reports are preliminary and subject to change as events are studied in more detail. The Global Volcanism Program welcomes further reports of current volcanism, seismic unrest, monitoring data, and field observations.     

Failure and strategic projects: Australia’s Asia-Pacific vision

This paper uses Australia’s 1980s shift to a new accumulation strategy of ‘international competitiveness’ to examine the role of failure in shaping state strategic projects. The paper argues that the Australian strategy’s gradual shift from an interventionist to a market-led orientation played out in competing representations of failure. Whether particular policies were perceived as failures depended not only on their material effects, but also on the ways in which failure was defined and on the values underpinning those definitions. As representations of failure establish the boundaries between the incremental adaptations that stabilise an accumulation strategy and the more radical failures characteristic of crisis, they illuminate how processes of discursive selectivity ‘fix’ state projects’ temporal, scalar and spatial dimensions.     

Reports from the Smithsonian’s Global Volcanism Network, January 2010

Information included in this summary is based on more detailed reports published in the Bulletin of the Global Volcanism Network, vol. 35, no. 1, January 2010 (on the Internet at http://www.volcano.si.edu/). Edited by scientists at the Smithsonian, this bulletin includes reports provided by a worldwide network of correspondents. The reports contain the names and contact information for all sources. Please note that these reports are preliminary and subject to change as events are studied in more detail. The Global Volcanism Program welcomes further reports of current volcanism, seismic unrest, monitoring data, and field observations.     

Introducing the Volcanic Unrest Index (VUI): a tool to quantify and communicate the intensity of volcanic unrest

Accurately observing and interpreting volcanic unrest phenomena contributes towards better forecasting of volcanic eruptions, thus potentially saving lives. Volcanic unrest is recorded by volcano observatories and may include seismic, geodetic, degassing and/or geothermal phenomena. The multivariate datasets are often complex and can contain a large amount of data in a variety of formats. Low levels of unrest are frequently recorded, causing the distinction between background activity and unrest to be blurred, despite the widespread usage of these terms in unrest literature (including probabilistic eruption-forecasting models) and in Volcanic Alert Level (VAL) systems. Frequencies and intensities of unrest episodes are not easily comparable over time or between volcanoes. Complex unrest information is difficult to communicate simply to civil defence personnel and other non-scientists. The Volcanic Unrest Index (VUI) is presented here to address these issues. The purpose of the VUI is to provide a semi-quantitative rating of unrest intensity relative to each volcano’s past level of unrest and to that of analogous volcanoes. The VUI is calculated using a worksheet of observed phenomena. Ranges for each phenomenon within the worksheet can be customised for individual volcanoes, as demonstrated in the companion paper for Taupo Volcanic Centre, New Zealand (Potter et al. 2015). The VUI can be determined retrospectively for historical episodes of unrest based on qualitative observations, as well as for recent episodes with state-of-the-art monitoring. This enables a long time series of unrest occurrence and intensity to be constructed and easily communicated to end users. The VUI can also assist with VAL decision-making. We present and discuss two approaches to the concept of unrest.     

The pre-Colombian footprint on terrestrial nutrient cycling in Costa Rica: insights from phosphorus in a lake sediment record

The impact of pre-Columbian subsistence agriculture on soil nutrient cycling in the American tropics is poorly quantified. Paleolimnological research can address this deficit by documenting the temporal evolution of nutrient cycling in lake watersheds over different time scales. Here we describe our use of a chemical sequential extraction technique adapted from soil fertility research to discern geochemical fractions of phosphorus (P) in lake sediments that serve as proxies for landscape-scale soil nutrient status. These P fractions are mineral P (the original lithic source of bioavailable P), occluded P (mainly bound to soil oxides), and organic P (remains of organic matter production by plants). We applied the P fractionation technique to a lake sediment core from a small lake in southern Costa Rica, Laguna Zoncho. Prior analyses of microfossils and stable carbon isotopes in this core documented an approximately 3,000 year history of human occupation and agricultural activity in the Zoncho watershed, and shifts in diatom communities in the lake associated both with human impacts and with climate-driven changes in lake level. Our P analyses revealed relatively constant P geochemistry during the first approximately 2,500 years of the record, when other sedimentary proxies reveal forest clearance and maize agriculture of varying intensity. However, the period from approximately 500 to 100 years BP is marked by a drastic shift toward a P geochemistry dominated by occluded forms, with a concomitant decrease in the relative content of both the organic and mineral P forms. This interval coincides with post-Conquest depopulation and forest regeneration at the site, and with an apparent deepening of the lake caused by a shift toward a wetter climate. The dominance of the occluded P fraction during this interval is the opposite of the trend expected with such a climate shift, implicating human dynamics as the principal driver of the changes in soil nutrient status indicated by the P fractions in the Zoncho core. We propose that the entire P geochemical record is dominated by human-induced alteration of the soil nutrient cycles via agriculture and occupation, and that the only interval that reveals the “natural” nutrient status in the region is the short interval when the site is abandoned and surrounding forests regrow. These results for Laguna Zoncho reveal the close connection between even relatively low-technology human activities and soil nutrient status.     

Ab initio study of the composition dependence of the pressure-induced spin crossover in perovskite (Mg1 − x,Fex)SiO3

We present ab initio calculations of the zero-temperature iron high- to low-spin crossover in (Mg_1 ? xFe_x)SiO₃ perovskite at pressures relevant to Earth's lower mantle. Equations of state are fit for a range of compositions and used to predict the Fe spin transition pressure and associated changes in volume and bulk modulus. We predict a dramatic decrease in transition pressure as Fe concentration increases. This trend is contrary to that seen in ferropericlase, and suggests the energetics for spin crossover is highly dependent on the structural environment of Fe. Both Local Density Approximation (LDA) and Generalized Gradient Approximation (GGA) exchange-correlation methods are used, and both methods reproduce the same compositional trends. However, GGA gives a significantly higher transition pressure than LDA. The spin transition is made easier by the decreasing spin-flip energy with pressure but is also driven by the change in volume from high to low spin. Volume trends show that high-spin Fe²⁺ is larger than Mg²⁺ even under pressure, but low-spin Fe²⁺ is smaller at ambient conditions and approximately the same size as Mg²⁺ under high pressure, indicating that low-spin Fe²⁺ is less compressible than high-spin Fe²⁺. We find large changes between high- and low-spin in the slope of volume with Fe concentration. Although these changes are small in absolute magnitude for small Fe content, they are still important when measured per Fe and could be relevant for calculating partitioning coefficients in the lower mantle.