Using geographically weighted regression kriging for crop yield mapping in West Africa

Geographical information systems support the application of statistical techniques to map spatially referenced crop data. To do this in the optimal way, errors and uncertainties have to be minimized that are often associated with operations on the data. This paper applies a spatial statistical approach to upscale crop yields from the field level toward the scale of Burkina Faso. Observed yields were related to the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index derived from SPOT-VEGETATION. The objective was to quantify the uncertainties at the subsequent steps. First, we applied a point pattern analysis to examine uncertainties due to the sampling network of field surveys in the country. Second, geographically weighted regression kriging (GWRK) was applied to upscale the yield observations and to quantify the corresponding uncertainty. The proposed method was demonstrated with the mapping of sorghum yields in Burkina Faso and results were compared with those from regression kriging (RK) and kriging with external drift using a local kriging neighborhood (KEDLN). The proposed method was validated with independent yield observations obtained from field surveys. We observed that the lower uncertainty range value increased by 39%, and the upper uncertainty range value decreased by 51%, when comparing GWRK with RK and KEDLN. Moreover, GWRK reduced the prediction error variance as compared to RK (20 vs. 31) and to KEDLN (20 vs. 39). We found that climate and topography had a major impact on the country’s sorghum yields. Further, the financial ability of farmers influenced the crop management and, thus, the sorghum crop yields. We concluded that GWRK effectively utilized information present in the covariate datasets and improved the accuracies of both the regional-scale mapping of sorghum yields and was able to quantify the associated uncertainty.     

Fluoride ion contamination in the groundwater of Mithi sub-district, the Thar Desert, Pakistan

Groundwater samples were collected from various localities of Mithi sub-district of the Thar Desert of Pakistan and analysed for fluoride ion along with other chemical parameters. The area is mainly covered by sand dunes and kaolin/granite at variable depths. Results showed that collected water samples were severely contaminated by the presence of fluoride ion and most of the samples have higher concentration than prescribed WHO standards (1.5 mg/l) for drinking water. Fluoride ion concentrations ranged between 0.09 and 11.63 mg/l with mean and median values of 3.64 and 3.44 mg/l, respectively, in this area whereas, distribution pattern showed high concentrations in the vicinity of Islamkot and Mithi towns. The content of F⁻ has also been correlated with other major ions found in the groundwater of the study area. The positive correlation of F⁻ with Na⁺ and HCO₃ ⁻ showed that the water with high Na⁺ and HCO₃ ⁻ stabilizes F⁻ ions in the groundwater of the Thar Desert. The pH versus F⁻ plots signifies high fluoride concentration at higher pH values, implying that alkaline environment favours the replacement of exchangeable OH⁻ with F⁻ in the groundwater of Mithi area. The saturation indices (SI) of fluorite (CaF₂) and calcite (CaCO₃) in the groundwater samples showed that most of the samples are oversaturated with respect to calcite whereas majority of samples have been found under saturated with respect to fluorite. The log TDS and Na/Na+Ca ratio reflected supremacy of weathering of rocks, which promotes the availability of fluoride ions in the groundwater. Piper diagram has been used to classify the hydrofacies. In the cation triangle, all samples are Na-type, while the anion triangle reflects major dominance of Cl-type with a minor influence of HCO₃ ⁻ and SO₄ ⁻.     

Geotechnical evaluation of Turkish clay deposits: a case study in Northern Turkey

Clay deposits in Oltu-Narman basins (Erzurum, northern Turkey) have been studied to determine their engineering properties and to evaluate their uses for geotechnical applications. These deposits are concentrated in two different stratigraphic horizons namely the Late Oligocene and the Early Miocene sequences. Clay-rich fine-grained sedimentary units are deposited in shallow marine and lagoonar mixed environments. Their clay minerals originated by the alteration of Eocene calc-alkaline island-arc volcanics, preferably from pyroclastics (trachite and andesite flow), which form the basement for the Oltu depression. Smectite group clay minerals are found abundant in clay deposits. The experimental results show that the clay soils have high plasticity behaviors and low hydraulic conductivity properties. The optimum water content, the free swell, and the swelling pressure of clay samples decreased and the maximum dry unit weight of clay samples increased under high temperature. Consequently, it is concluded that the expanding of clay soils is an important soil problem that cannot be avoided in the significant parts of Oltu city and its villages. However, the soils of clay-rich layers in the outcrops-section of clay deposits can be successfully used to build compacted clay liners for landfill systems and to construct vertical and horizontal barriers for protection of ground water and for preventing soil pollution in geotechnical applications.     

Geochemistry of the kaolin deposits of Swat (Pakistan)

Kaolin deposits of the Swat District in Pakistan are indicated to have derived by hydrothermal alteration of more feldspathic parts of felsic intrusives, which occur enclosed in orthoamphibolites and orthogneisses of the Cretaceous Kohistan Island Arc terrane. These latter “country rocks” formed under epidote–amphibolite conditions that prograde northwards to amphibolite facies, and locally manifest slight metamorphic differentiation. The felsic intrusives exhibit a general decrease in siliceous character from west to east, but are less siliceous than most hosts of world kaolins. They are composed of chemically allied quartz diorite, tonalite, trondhjemite and pegmatoids, which evolved mainly by an orthomagmatic crystal fractionation. These parental rocks are calc-alkaline in nature, and kaolinization has proceeded in Ca-richer environment. This is in variance with the occurrence of most known kaolin deposits over potassic granites or rhyolites. Ca-metasomatism of the “host rocks” is in evidence. Kaolin formation by a supergene process is not displayed.The raw kaolin with contained unaltered plagioclase is characterized by a rather low silica (46.54–50.93%) and potash (<1%), and high alumina (23.54–26.77%), Fe₂O₃ (1.73–5.45%) and lime (8.13–16.93%) content. Kaolinization proceeded with a decrease in SiO₂ and concomitant increase in Al₂O₃. The same trend is followed with fineness of grain size of washed fractions, in resemblance to other known kaolin deposits of primary as well as secondary origin.     

Uncertainty analysis of runoff and sedimentation in a forested watershed using sequential uncertainty fitting method

The Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT) was implemented in a small forested watershed of the Soan River Basin in northern Pakistan through application of the sequential uncertainty fitting(SUFI-2) method to investigate the associated uncertainty in runoff and sediment load estimation. The model was calibrated for a 10-year period(1991–2000) with an initial 4-year warm-up period(1987–1990), and was validated for the subsequent 10-year period(2001–2010). The model evaluation indices R~2(the coefficient of determination), NS(the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency), and PBIAS(percent bias) for stream flows simulation indicated that there was a good agreement between the measured and simulated flows. To assess the uncertainty in the model outputs, p-factor(a 95% prediction uncertainty, 95PPU) and r-factors(average wideness width of the 95 PPU band divided by the standard deviation of the observed values) were taken into account. The 95 PPU band bracketed 72% of the observed data during the calibration and 67% during the validation. The r-factor was 0.81 during the calibration and 0.68 during the validation. For monthly sediment yield, the model evaluation coefficients(R~2 and NS) for the calibration were computed as 0.81 and 0.79, respectively; for validation, they were 0.78 and 0.74, respectively. Meanwhile, the 95 PPU covered more than 60% of the observed sediment data during calibration and validation. Moreover, improved model prediction and parameter estimation were observed with the increased number of iterations. However, the model performance became worse after the fourth iterations due to an unreasonable parameter estimation. Overall results indicated the applicability of the SWAT model with moderate levels of uncertainty during the calibration and high levels during the validation. Thus, this calibrated SWAT model can be used for assessment of water balance components, climate change studies, and land use management practices.     

Optimization of chlorination boosters in drinking water distribution network for Al-Khobar City in Saudi Arabia

Water quality management in distribution networks is directly related to spatial distribution of chlorine boosters and its dosages. Water chlorination is essential to reduce the effects of bacterial and other microbiological contaminants. A higher dosage of chlorine generates harmful by-products in addition to changes in drinking water’s taste and odor. The optimization of chlorine dosage is necessary to decrease the microbial contaminants that affect water quality. Once the chlorine threshold is determined for microbial contaminant, it will help decision makers suggest optimal values. These decisions can rely on the estimated water quality index (WQI). WQI is an index to evaluate water quality and can be linked to adequate residual chlorine with optimal booster dosage, numbers, and locations in water distribution network (WDN). The city of Al-Khobar, Saudi Arabia’s WDN was selected to validate the application of this study. Based on geographic location, the city Al-Khobar water network was divided into five zones. The initial temporal and spatial analysis pointed out poor water quality zones. EPANET, a modeling and simulating software, was applied to evaluate the WQI. Those EPANET results were then integrated with an optimization model. The optimization model suggested new chlorine booster locations to improve water quality in the city of Al-Khobar water distribution network.     

Aggregative effect on rice production due to climate change using index number under indeterminate environment: a case study from Punjab,Pakistan

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - The existing Laspeyres index, Paasche’s index, and Fisher’s index under classical statistics cannot be applied when observations are indeterminate,...     

Rock Mass Characterization and Support Assessment along Power Tunnel of Hydropower in Kohistan Area,KPK, Pakistan

This paper encompasses the engineering geological properties of rock mass along the power tunnel of hydropower in Kohistan, Khayber Pakhtun Khawa (KPK), Pakistan. The major geological units of the study area are Chilas complex (CC) and Gilgit complex (GC) that consists mostly of igneous and metamorphic rocks. Discontinuity surveys were conducted to classify the rock mass by utilizing rock mass rating (RMR) and tunneling quality index (Q) classification systems. RMR system involves collection of data for parameters of rock strength, RQD, spacing of discontinuities, condition of discontinuities, groundwater condition and Q system involves rock quality designation (RQD), joint roughness (J_r), joint sets (J_s), joint alteration (J_a), stress reduction factor (SRF) and joint water reduction (J_w). RMR values ranges from 46 to 66 (fair to good) for rock unit of Chilas complex (CC) and 50 to 58 (fair) for rock unit of Gilgit complex (GC). The evaluated values of tunnel quality by Q-system are 1.55 to 6.4 (poor to fair) for Chilas complex (CC) and 1.35 to 1.84 (poor) for Gilgit complex (GC). The required support along the tunnel route is also estimated by both classification systems. Unwedge program is used to analyze the unstable zones due to the intersection of different joint sets. Total 14 cases are analyzed in Unwedge from which 3 cases have failure potential with FOS less than 1. These failure potential blocks can become stable by applying further support of rock bolting and shotcrete layer.     

Seismic hazard assessment of northern Pakistan

This article presents probabilistic seismic hazard analyses of northern Pakistan region carried out to produce macro-seismic hazard maps for the region that define new regional ground motion design parameters for 95-, 475-, 975- and 2475-year return period earthquakes as regional contour maps and horizontal uniform hazard at important cities. The Cornell–McGuire approach (Cornell in Bull Seismol Soc Am 58(05):1583–1606, 1968; McGuire in FORTRAN computer program for seismic risk analysis. US Geological Survey, Open file Report, 76-6768, 1976) is used to carry out the analyses at 0.1° rectangular grid. The seismotectonic model of the region used in analysis consists of shallow and deep area zones differentiated based on the focal depths of the earthquakes. Earthquake catalogue compiled and used in the analysis is a composite catalogue composed of 19,373 events. Ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) used are calibrated using goodness-of-fitness measures and visual inspection with local strong motion data. Epistemic uncertainty in the GMPEs is taken into account through the logic tree approach. Comparison of ground motions due to deep earthquakes is made for the first time for the region. The comparison between ground motion due to shallow and deep earthquakes indicates that the seismic hazard would be underestimated if the deep earthquakes are excluded. Ground motion values obtained in this study considering all the earthquakes suggest ground motions are dominant towards the north east of the region. The proposed study indicates that the ground motion hazard values suggested by the current Building Code of Pakistan underestimate the seismic hazard. Final results of this study are in close agreement with the recent studies on the region.