Development of an Improved Methodology to Assess Potential Unconventional Gas Resources

Considering the important role played today by unconventional gas resources in North America and their enormous potential for the future around the world, it is vital to both policy makers and industry that the volumes of these resources and the impact of technology on these resources be assessed. To provide for optimal decision making regarding energy policy, research funding, and resource development, it is necessary to reliably quantify the uncertainty in these resource assessments. Since the 1970s, studies to assess potential unconventional gas resources have been conducted by various private and governmental agencies, the most rigorous of which was by the United States Geological Survey (USGS). The USGS employed a cell-based, probabilistic methodology which used analytical equations to calculate distributions of the resources assessed. USGS assessments have generally produced distributions for potential unconventional gas resources that, in our judgment, are unrealistically narrow for what are essentially undiscovered, untested resources. In this article, we present an improved methodology to assess potential unconventional gas resources. Our methodology is a stochastic approach that includes Monte Carlo simulation and correlation between input variables. Application of the improved methodology to the Uinta–Piceance province of Utah and Colorado with USGS data validates the means and standard deviations of resource distributions produced by the USGS methodology, but reveals that these distributions are not right skewed, as expected for a natural resource. Our investigation indicates that the unrealistic shape and width of the gas resource distributions are caused by the use of narrow triangular input parameter distributions. The stochastic methodology proposed here is more versatile and robust than the USGS analytic methodology. Adoption of the methodology, along with a careful examination and revision of input distributions, should allow a more realistic assessment of the uncertainty surrounding potential unconventional gas resources.     

High-resolution grid of H/V spectral ratios and spatial variability on microtremors at Port of Spain,Trinidad

We performed dense single mobile microtremor measurements at 1181 sites throughout the city of Port of Spain, Trinidad. The results yielded fundamental periods of the soil of 1.2–1.7 s in the coastal areas, 0.3–1.2 s in the downtown area, and 0.0–0.3 s in the surrounding areas of the city. We employed the variogram plot to retrieve the spatial variability of fundamental periods. The results suggest that the variability of the period yields about 0.010 s² at short distances of 100 m and it can be modeled as a Gaussian distribution which is directionally dependent. Finally, we propose an elastic design response spectra for different zones in the city in accordance with the observed periods of vibration and compatible with the International Building Code (IBC) provisions.     

A Case Study of the Spatial Distribution of Seismic Hazard (El Salvador)

The republic of El Salvador in Central America is an area of high seismic hazard where at least twelve destructive earthquakes have occurred this century alone. The principal sources of seismic hazard are earthquakes associated with the subduction of the Cocos plate in the Middle America Trench and upper-crustal earthquakes in the chain of Quaternary volcanoes that runs across the country parallel to the subduction trench. Hazard assessments for Central America have suggested almost uniform distribution of hazard throughout El Salvador. Seismic zonations for three successive building codes in El Salvador simply divide the country into two regions, with the higher hazard zone containing the volcanoes and the coastal areas. Historical records suggest that the greatest hazard is posed by the upper-crustal earthquakes concentrated on the volcanic centres which, although of smaller magnitude than the subduction events, are generally of shallow focus and coincide with the main population centres. These earthquakes have repeatedly caused intense damage over small areas in the vicinity of some of the main volcanoes. This study focuses on El Salvador to explore the capability of different approaches to hazard assessment to reflect significant variations of seismic hazard within small geographical areas. In the study, three 'zone-free' methods are employed as well as the Cornell–McGuire approach. The results of the assessments are compared and their implications for seismic zoning for construction and insurance purposes are discussed.     

Contaminant exposures at the 4H shell mounds in the Santa Barbara Channel

Remobilization, bioavailability, and potential toxicity of chemical contaminants were evaluated at the 4H shell mounds – the site of abandoned offshore oil and gas production platforms in the Santa Barbara Channel region of the Southern California Bight. Evaluations used a weight-of-evidence approach based on results from bulk phase chemical analyses and laboratory toxicity testing of shell mound cores, in situ field bioassays using caged mussels, and surficial sediment chemistry. Shell mound cores contained elevated concentrations of metals associated with drilling wastes (e.g., Ba, Cr, Pb, and Zn), as well as monocyclic and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). The highest concentrations along with pockets of free oil were associated with the middle “cuttings” stratum. Sediments composited from all core strata caused significant acute toxicity and bioaccumulation of Ba and PAHs in test organisms during laboratory exposures. In contrast, caged mussels placed at each of the shell mounds for a period of 57–58 days had greater than 90% survival, and there were no significant differences in survival of mussels placed at the shell mounds and corresponding reference sites. While all mussel samples exhibited increases in shell length, whole animal weight, and tissue lipid content, in some cases growth metrics for the shell mound mussels were significantly higher than those for the reference sites. Concentrations of metals, PAHs, and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in tissues of the shell mound mussels were not significantly different from those at reference sites. The presence of labile aromatic hydrocarbons in shell mound cores and absence of significant contaminant accumulation of tissues of caged mussels indicated that chemical contaminants are not being remobilized from the 4H shell mounds. Surficial bottom sediments near the shell mounds contained elevated Ba concentrations that probably were associated with drilling wastes. However, concentrations did not exhibit clear spatial gradients with distance from the shell mounds. Despite a number of storm events during the mussel exposures, maximum currents were 34 cm s⁻¹ and unlikely to erode materials from the shell mounds. Thus, Ba distributions in bottom sediments probably were due to episodic disturbance such as platform removal or trawling rather than ongoing erosion and dispersion of shell mound solids by near-bottom currents. These results suggest that, in the absence of physical disturbances, contaminants are expected to remain sequestered in the shell mounds.     

Modelling discharge from a coastal watershed in southeast Sweden using an integrated framework

The field hydrology model DRAINMOD integrated with Arc Hydro in geographical information system (GIS) framework (Arc Hydro–DRAINMOD) was used to simulate the hydrological response of a coastal watershed in southeast Sweden. Arc Hydro–DRAINMOD uses a distributed approach to route water from each field edge to the watershed outlet. In the framework the Arc Hydro data model was used to describe the stream network in the watershed and to connect the individual simulated DRAINMOD‐field outflow time series from each plot using Arc Hydro schema‐links features, which were summed at Arc Hydro schema‐nodes features along the stream network to generate the stream network flow. Hydrology data collected during six periods between 2003 and 2008 were used to test Arc Hydro–DRAINMOD and its performance was evaluated by considering uncertainties in model inputs using generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE). The GLUE estimates obtained (uncertainty bands 5% and 95%) agreed satisfactorily with measured monthly discharges. The percentage of time in which the observed discharges were bracketed by the uncertainty bands was 88% in calibration periods and 75% in validation periods. Although monthly time step simulations showed good agreement with observed discharges during the two main discharge events in spring, the contradictory daily time step results indicate that the watershed response simulations on a daily basis need to be improved. The uncertainty analysis showed that in periods of higher discharge, such as spring periods, the uncertainty in prediction was higher. It is important to note that these uncertainty estimations using the GLUE procedure include the uncertainties in measured discharge values, model inputs, boundary conditions and model structures. It was estimated that stream baseflow represented 42% of the total watershed discharge, but further research is needed to confirm this. These results show that the new Arc Hydro–DRAINMOD framework is applicable for predicting discharge from artificially drained watersheds in southeast Sweden. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Multi-method assessment of connectivity between surface water and shallow groundwater: the case of Limarí River basin,north-central Chile

A study that tests the applicability and consistency of independent but complementary approaches in the assessment of interactions between surface water and shallow groundwater within a water-stressed basin is described. The mostly agricultural Limarí basin in arid north-central Chile was chosen as a suitable case study. The analyses involved: (1) a connectivity index method, (2) hydrochemistry, and (3) water isotopic geochemistry. Chemical and isotopic data were obtained from two sampling campaigns conducted in April (fall) and December (summer) of 2011 in 22 sampling locations, which included surface water and groundwater. The results obtained by each of the methodologies were mutually consistent and indicate high connectivity conditions. Additionally, the relative contribution by different sources was assessed through end-member mixing analysis, and for reaches of the river that showed gaining conditions, the contribution of groundwater inflow to stream discharge was estimated. It is suggested that this multi-method approach is useful for the characterization of surface-water–groundwater interactions, since it at least represents a suitable starting point for obtaining basic information on these relationships. Thus, it may become the base for further studies in arid and semi-arid basins facing water management challenges.     

Impacts of the Jessica oil spill on sea lion (Zalophus wollebaeki) populations

Following the Jessica oil spill, a total of 79 oiled Galápagos sea lions (Zalophus wollebaeki) were recorded around the islands of San Cristóbal, Santa Fé, Isabela and Floreana. Almost half of these animals required washing and other treatment. One sea lion death and a high incidence of conjunctivitis and burns were detected during the period of the oil spill. Sea lion populations exhibited a tendency for decline in the first months following the spill at all three colonies monitored close to the grounding site on San Cristóbal. By comparison, declines of similar magnitude occurred at only one of six sea lion colonies monitored on islands more distant from the spill. However, no significant decreases in population numbers were detected for any colony in the year following the spill. Galápagos sea lion populations were partially recovering from the much more catastrophic impact of the 1997/98 El Ni?o.     

Geochemical fractionation of manganese in the Riogrande II reservoir, Antioquia, Colombia

The Riogrande II reservoir in Colombia has a total storage capacity of 240 million m³ and lies 2,270 m above sea level. The reservoir is used for power generation, water supply and environmental improvement. Dissolved manganese (Mn) is removed from reservoir water dedicated to domestic use by purification processes. Removal of Mn, however, poses a major challenge to purification processes and warrants the study of ways to naturally reduce dissolved Mn levels in the reservoir. The source of Mn within the reservoir is not well understood, however, presumably arises from sediment mobilization initiated by variation in pH, redox potential (ORP or Eh), dissolved oxygen (O₂) and ionic strength conditions. This study investigated conditions within the reservoir to further understand Mn transfer from the sediment into the water column. O₂, pH, oxidation–reduction potential (ORP or Eh), organic matter content and electric conductivity were measured in water samples and sediment from the reservoir. Sequential extraction (SE) procedures were used to test the specific effects exerted by each of these conditions on Mn mobilization from the sediments. The European Community Bureau of Reference (BCR) sequential extraction procedure was used to quantify metals in sediment (referred to as the BCR extraction below). Statistical analysis of geochemical data from water samples (both water column and sediment pore water) and sediments demonstrated the conditions under which Mn can be released from sediments into the water column. The results indicated a primarily oxic water column and anoxic reducing conditions in the sediment (ORP or Eh ≤ ?80 mV). The pH of water in contact with bottom sediments varied from 7.6 to 6.8. The pH of sedimentary pore water varied from 6.8 to 4.7. The sediments contained significant amounts of organic matter (20 %). Chemical extractions showed that the exchangeable fraction contained over 50 % of the total Mn within sediments. Microscopic analysis using scanning electron microscopy–energy dispersive spectroscopy (SEM–EDS) indicated that Mn does not occur within well-crystallized mineral phases in the Riogrande II sediments. A large proportion of Mn exists instead as material adsorbed onto the surfaces of recently deposited sediment particles. Bacterial oxidation of organic matter may cause the observed anoxic conditions at the bottom of the reservoir. Mineralization of organic matter therefore contributes to reducing conditions within the sediments. Mobilization of Mn from the sediment into the water column may result from reductive dissolution of this fraction. Manganese release by this mechanism diminishes the water quality of the Riogrande II reservoir and warrants further study.