洪泽湖水沙变化趋势和冲淤时空分布及驱动因素

为了研究洪泽湖水沙特性、变化趋势与冲淤时空分布规律,运用累积距平法、Mann-Kendall趋势与突变检验以及R/S分析法等方法,分析了洪泽湖19502016年的水沙特征;采用地理信息技术,基于1992年和2016年实测地形,对湖区泥沙冲淤空间分布进行了定量计算与分析.结果表明,入湖径流量无明显增加或减少的趋势,输沙量和含沙量呈明显减小趋势,1990年以后含沙量基本稳定在0.2 kg/m^3以下;淮河干流(包括池河)入湖水量和沙量约占入湖总量的89.6%,三河闸出湖水沙占总出湖量的60%.淮干入湖口和溧河洼为主要淤积区域,淤积量分别为2300×10^4和1900×10^4 m^3,平均淤积厚度分别为0.35和0.25 m;其他区域自然冲淤基本平衡.上游水库和河道闸坝的拦沙作用、农业种植结构变化和水土保持、大规模人工采砂等是入湖沙量减少的主要影响因素;湖区水动力特性是泥沙自然淤积主导因素,而湖区库容变化的主因则是人工采砂、围湖造田和围网养殖,且人类活动的影响远大于自然冲淤.     

南秦岭地体东江口花岗岩及其基性包体的锆石U-Pb年龄和Hf同位素组成

东江口花岗岩体位于商丹与勉略缝合带之间的南秦岭中部,其中存在大量基性暗色微粒包体.锆石的LA-MCICPMS联机U-Pb年代学分析表明,东江口岩体的形成年龄为223Ma,其包体锆石的结晶年龄为222Ma,与寄主岩体大致同时形成,指示秦岭造山带印支晚期岩石圈构造体制属性从挤压.伸展转变发生在220Ma左右.锆石的Lu-Hf同位素原位分析结果表明,南秦岭晚三叠纪花岗岩是壳幔混合作用的产物,亏损的幔源岩浆与南秦岭(或扬子)的基底地壳物质可能为南秦岭地区晚三叠纪花岗岩的源区物质,它们的形成起因于秦岭造山带在主造山期后发生的岩石圈拆沉作用.大约220Ma开始,南秦岭岩石圈构造应力性质从挤压向伸展构造体制转变,岩石圈发生拆沉作用,地幔软流圈物质上涌并底侵于下地壳,诱发下地壳物质的部分熔融,当岩浆沿构造薄弱带上升过程中,幔源岩浆与寄主岩浆发生成份的交换,两种岩浆混合过程中不完全混溶,最终形成寄主岩体和暗色基性微粒包体.     

基于逐步回归模态投影方法的BCC气候系统模式ENSO预报订正

本文利用国家气候中心气候系统模式(Beijing climate center climate System Model,BCC_CSM1.1m)提供的1991—2014年海表温度回报数据,将逐步回归模态投影方法(stepwise Pattern Projection Method,SPPM)应用到改进BCC_CSM1.1m模式El Nino和南方涛动(ENSO)预报研究。SPPM是一种经验性模式误差订正方法,其主要思路是在大尺度模式预报因子场中找寻出与格点观测预报变量相关性高的信号,通过投影将这种信号反演出来,然后建立回归方程得到订正后的预报结果。本文交叉检验和滚动独立样本检验的结果表明,利用SPPM可以有效地提高BCC_CSM1.1m气候系统模式的预报技巧,尤其是在热带太平洋地区以及印度洋海区,24年交叉检验Nino3.4指数提前6个月预报的相关系数技巧可以提高8%~10%,预报误差得到显著降低。不同季节SPPM订正效果略有不同,其中对秋季的预报技巧提升最为显著。与此同时,交叉检验结果还显示,SPPM对El Nino中心纬向位置的预报也有一定程度的改进。     

Simulation of urban climate with high-resolution WRF model: A case study in Nanjing, China

In this study, urban climate in Nanjing of eastern China is simulated using 1-km resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with a single-layer Urban Canopy Model. Based on the 10-summer simulation results from 2000 to 2009 we find that the WRF model is capable of capturing the high-resolution features of urban climate over Nanjing area. Although WRF underestimates the total precipitation amount, the model performs well in simulating the surface air temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation frequency and inter-annual variability. We find that extremely hot events occur most frequently in urban area, with daily maximum (minimum) temperature exceeding 36°C (28°C) in around 40% (32%) of days. Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect at surface is more evident during nighttime than daytime, with 20% of cases the UHI intensity above 2.5°C at night. However, The UHI affects the vertical structure of Planet Boundary Layer (PBL) more deeply during daytime than nighttime. Net gain for latent heat and net radiation is larger over urban than rural surface during daytime. Correspondingly, net loss of sensible heat and ground heat are larger over urban surface resulting from warmer urban skin. Because of different diurnal characteristics of urban-rural differences in the latent heat, ground heat and other energy fluxes, the near surface UHI intensity exhibits a very complex diurnal feature. UHI effect is stronger in days with less cloud or lower wind speed. Model results reveal a larger precipitation frequency over urban area, mainly contributed by the light rain events (< 10 mm d^?1). Consistent with satellite dataset, around 10?C20% more precipitation occurs in urban than rural area at afternoon induced by more unstable urban PBL, which induces a strong vertical atmospheric mixing and upward moisture transport. A significant enhancement of precipitation is found in the downwind region of urban in our simulations in the afternoon.     

Comparison of stress-dependent geophysical,hydraulic and mechanical properties of synthetic and natural sandstones for reservoir characterization and monitoring studies

Synthetic rock samples can offer advantages over natural rock samples when used for laboratory rock physical properties studies, provided their success as natural analogues is well understood. The ability of synthetic rocks to mimic the natural stress dependency of elastic wave, electrical and fluid transport properties is of primary interest. Hence, we compare a consistent set of laboratory multi-physics measurements obtained on four quartz sandstone samples (porosity range 20–25%) comprising two synthetic and two natural (Berea and Corvio) samples, the latter used extensively as standards in rock physics research. We measured simultaneously ultrasonic (P- and S-wave) velocity and attenuation, electrical resistivity, permeability and axial and radial strains over a wide range of differential pressure (confining stress 15–50 MPa; pore pressure 5–10 MPa) on the four brine saturated samples. Despite some obvious physical discrepancies caused by the synthetic manufacturing process, such as silica cementation and anisotropy, the results show only small differences in stress dependency between the synthetic and natural sandstones for all measured parameters. Stress dependency analysis of the dry samples using an isotropic effective medium model of spheroidal pores and penny-shaped cracks, together with a granular cohesion model, provide evidence of crack closure mechanisms in the natural sandstones, seen to a much lesser extent in the synthetic sandstones. The smaller grain size, greater cement content, and cementation under oedometric conditions particularly affect the fluid transport properties of the synthetic sandstones, resulting in lower permeability and higher electrical resistivity for a similar porosity. The effective stress coefficients, determined for each parameter, are in agreement with data reported in the literature. Our results for the particular synthetic materials that were tested suggest that synthetic sandstones can serve as good proxies for natural sandstones for studies of elastic and mechanical properties, but should be used with care for transport properties studies.     

大陆造山带地球化学研究：Ⅰ 岩石构造环境地球化学判别的改进

本文讨论了如何改进岩石构造环境的地球化学判别方法及其应用于研究造山带构造演化的问题，在论述了岩石地球化学特征与形成构造环境关系实质的基础上，提出了优选判别指示元素，参数和方法的准则及应用实例；并提出采用岩套内岩类配套及相邻相造期岩套或岩石建造时空配套综合分析途径的建议，从解决某些岩石化学特征在反映构造环境方面存在的多解性问题，推动造山带构造演化细节的深入研究。