The modulated annual cycle: an alternative reference frame for climate anomalies

In climate science, an anomaly is the deviation of a quantity from its annual cycle. There are many ways to define annual cycle. Traditionally, this annual cycle is taken to be an exact repeat of itself year after year. This stationary annual cycle may not reflect well the intrinsic nonlinearity of the climate system, especially under external forcing. In this paper, we re-examine the reference frame for anomalies by re-examining the annual cycle. We propose an alternative reference frame for climate anomalies, the modulated annual cycle (MAC) that allows the annual cycle to change from year to year, for defining anomalies. In order for this alternative reference frame to be useful, we need to be able to define the instantaneous annual cycle: we therefore also introduce a new method to extract the MAC from climatic data. In the presence of a MAC, modulated in both amplitude and frequency, we can then define an alternative version of an anomaly, this time with respect to the instantaneous MAC rather than a permanent and unchanging AC. Based on this alternative definition of anomalies, we re-examine some familiar physical processes: in particular SST re-emergence and ENSO phase locking to the annual cycle. We find that the re-emergence mechanism may be alternatively interpreted as an explanation of the change of the annual cycle instead of an explanation of the interannual to interdecadal persistence of SST anomalies. We also find that the ENSO phase locking can largely be attributed to the residual annual cycle (the difference of the MAC and the corresponding traditional annual cycle) contained in the traditional anomaly, and, therefore, can be alternatively interpreted as a part of the annual cycle phase locked to the annual cycle itself. In addition to the examples of reinterpretation of physics of well known climate phenomena, we also present an example of the implications of using a MAC against which to define anomalies. We show that using MAC as a reference framework for anomaly can bypass the difficulty brought by concepts such as “decadal variability of summer (or winter) climate” for understanding the low-frequency variability of the climate system. The concept of an amplitude and frequency modulated annual cycle, a method to extract it, and its implications for the interpretation of physical processes, all may contribute potentially to a more consistent and fruitful way of examining past and future climate variability and change.     

The XMM Cluster Survey: forecasting cosmological and cluster scaling-relation parameter constraints

We forecast the constraints on the values of  σ₈, Ω_m  and cluster scaling-relation parameters which we expect to obtain from the XMM Cluster Survey (XCS). We assume a flat Λ cold dark matter Universe and perform a Monte Carlo Markov Chain analysis of the evolution of the number density of galaxy clusters that takes into account a detailed simulated selection function. Comparing our current observed number of clusters shows good agreement with predictions. We determine the expected degradation of the constraints as a result of self-calibrating the luminosity–temperature relation (with scatter), including temperature measurement errors, and relying on photometric methods for the estimation of galaxy cluster redshifts. We examine the effects of systematic errors in scaling relation and measurement error assumptions. Using only  ( T , z )  self-calibration, we expect to measure Ω_m to ±0.03 (and  Ω_Λ  to the same accuracy assuming flatness), and σ₈ to ±0.05, also constraining the normalization and slope of the luminosity–temperature relation to ±6 and ±13 per cent (at 1σ), respectively, in the process. Self-calibration fails to jointly constrain the scatter and redshift evolution of the luminosity–temperature relation significantly. Additional archival and/or follow-up data will improve on this. We do not expect measurement errors or imperfect knowledge of their distribution to degrade constraints significantly. Scaling-relation systematics can easily lead to cosmological constraints 2σ or more away from the fiducial model. Our treatment is the first exact treatment to this level of detail, and introduces a new 'smoothed ML' (Maximum Likelihood) estimate of expected constraints.     

黄铁矿LA-ICP-MS微量元素特征：对青海锡铁山矿床成因的启示

锡铁山铅锌矿床位于柴达木盆地北缘，主要呈层状、脉状及不规则状三类矿体产于绿片岩相的片岩、大理岩及其过渡带中。赋矿围岩的原岩主要为晚奥陶世滩间山群的浅海相基性—酸性火山-沉积岩。前人对该矿床的成因类型存在SEDEX、VMS 和变质叠加的喷流沉积矿床等诸多争议。根据矿石宏观特征和显微组构，文章将锡铁山矿床中层状矿体中的黄铁矿分为胶黄铁矿（Py-I）、他形黄铁矿（Py-II） 和半自形—自形黄铁矿（Py-III） 3 种类型，分别代表了原始沉积型黄铁矿、低程度重结晶黄铁矿和高度重结晶的黄铁矿。使用激光剥蚀电感耦合等离子体质谱仪（LA-ICP-MS） 分别对这三种类型黄铁矿进行了微量元素的测试，结果表明三者间具有明显的差异。Py-I 中富含Cu、Pb、Zn、Co、Ni 等成矿元素，Co/Ni比值大于1，并具有相对平滑的时间-空间信号曲线。这表明Ni、Co、As 可能以固溶体形式赋存于Py-I 晶格之中，Cu、Pb、Zn 等元素可能以纳米级矿物微粒存在于Py-I 晶格缺陷中。Py-II 中微量元素含量变化较大，明显低于Py-I，LA-ICP-MS 时间-空间信号曲线表现为多个“尖峰”，暗示着这些元素以微米级矿物包裹体形成存在。Py-III 中微量元素含量极低，甚至低于检测限，除了个别测试点以外。根据上述元素的赋存状态和组构特征，笔者认为Py-I 是火山活动海底喷流沉积过程中形成的，Py-II 和Py-III 则是由Py-I 经后期不同程度的成岩和变质重结晶作用而形成的产物。结合近年来锡铁山矿床赋矿围岩岩相学、锆石U-Pb 年代学、地球化学和构造背景的研究结果，此次研究认为锡铁山矿床应属于VMS 型块状硫化物矿床，在成矿后的造山运动过程中经历了显著的矿体变质和成矿元素再活化作用。     

Building a case against economic development

Although development is widely held to be the solution to poverty in the Third World, a case can be made that it is a part of the problem. It is commonly believed that development eradicates poverty through increased production of goods and services, but the past history of that activity also contains an unacknowledged history of socially-constructed scarcity. Poverty is a form of development-induced scarcity caused by the playing out of production relations located within a nexus of interacting technical, social, political, cultural, ecological, and academic relations. In that sense poverty is caused by multiple forces acting within a discursive materialist formation. We have used an analytical framework called the nexus of production relations to elucidate these ideas. This framework also suggests that the opportunities available to the poor for meeting their needs are far more varied and numerous than theories of economic development would have us believe.     

Towards quantifying uncertainty in transient climate change

Ensembles of coupled atmosphere–ocean global circulation model simulations are required to make probabilistic predictions of future climate change. “Perturbed physics” ensembles provide a new approach in which modelling uncertainties are sampled systematically by perturbing uncertain parameters. The aim is to provide a basis for probabilistic predictions in which the impact of prior assumptions and observational constraints can be clearly distinguished. Here we report on the first perturbed physics coupled atmosphere–ocean model ensemble in which poorly constrained atmosphere, land and sea-ice component parameters are varied in the third version of the Hadley Centre model (the variation of ocean parameters will be the subject of future study). Flux adjustments are employed, both to reduce regional sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity biases and also to admit the use of combinations of model parameter values which give non-zero values for the global radiation balance. This improves the extent to which the ensemble provides a credible basis for the quantification of uncertainties in climate change, especially at a regional level. However, this particular implementation of flux-adjustments leads to a weakening of the Atlantic overturning circulation, resulting in the development of biases in SST and sea ice in the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans. Nevertheless, model versions are produced which are of similar quality to the unperturbed and un-flux-adjusted version. The ensemble is used to simulate pre-industrial conditions and a simple scenario of a 1% per year compounded increase in CO₂. The range of transient climate response (the 20 year averaged global warming at the time of CO₂ doubling) is 1.5–2.6°C, similar to that found in multi-model studies. Measures of global and large scale climate change from the coupled models show simple relationships with associated measures computed from atmosphere-mixed-layer-ocean climate change experiments, suggesting that recent advances in computing the probability density function of climate change under equilibrium conditions using the perturbed physics approach may be extended to the transient case.     

Intercomparison of Boron Isotope and Concentration Measurements. Part II: Evaluation of Results

The Istituto di Geoscienze e Georisorse (IGG), on behalf and with the support of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), prepared eight geological materials (three natural waters and five rocks and minerals), intended for a blind interlaboratory comparison of measurements of boron isotopic composition and concentration. The materials were distributed to twenty seven laboratories - virtually all those performing geochemical boron isotope analyses in the world -which agreed to participate in the intercomparison exercise. Only fifteen laboratories, however, ultimately submitted the isotopic and/or concentration results they obtained on the intercomparison materials. The results demonstrate that interlaboratory reproducibility is not well reflected by the precision values reported by the individual laboratories and this observation holds true for both boron concentration and isotopic composition. The reasons for the discrepancies include fractionations due to the chemical matrix of materials, relative shift of the zero position on the δ¹¹B scale and a lack of well characterized materials for calibrating absolute boron content measurements. The intercomparison materials are now available at the IAEA (solid materials) and IGG (waters) for future distribution.