Strategies to improve the explanatory power of a dynamic slope stability model by enhancing land cover parameterisation and model complexity

Despite the importance of land cover on landscape hydrology and slope stability, the representation of land cover dynamics in physically based models and their associated ecohydrological effects on slope stability is rather scarce. In this study, we assess the impact of different levels of complexity in land cover parameterisation on the explanatory power of a dynamic and process-based spatial slope stability model. Firstly, we present available and collected data sets and account for the stepwise parameterisation of the model. Secondly, we present approaches to simulate land cover: 1) a grassland landscape without forest coverage; 2) spatially static forest conditions, in which we assume limited knowledge about forest composition; 3) more detailed information of forested areas based on the computation of leaf area development and the implementation of vegetation-related processes; 4) similar to the third approach but with the additional consideration of the spatial expansion and vertical growth of vegetation. Lastly, the model is calibrated based on meteorological data sets and groundwater measurements. The model results are quantitatively validated for two landslide-triggering events that occurred in Western Austria. Predictive performances are estimated using the Area Under the receiver operating characteristic Curve (AUC). Our findings indicate that the performance of the slope stability model was strongly determined by model complexity and land cover parameterisation. The implementation of leaf area development and land cover dynamics further yield an acceptable predictive performance (AUC ~0.71-0.75) and a better conservativeness of the predicted unstable areas (FoC ~0.71). The consideration of dynamic land cover expansion provided better performances than the solely consideration of leaf area development. The results of this study highlight that an increase of effort in the land cover parameterisation of a dynamic slope stability model can increase the explanatory power of the model. © 2018 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Factors controlling aggregate formation in the benthic boundary layer of the Mecklenburg Bight (western Baltic Sea)

Studies on aggregate formation and size distribution in relation to bottom water composition and flow regime were carried out in November 1994 at two transects in the inner and outer Mecklenburg Bight (Baltic Sea). The bottom water sampler ‘BIOPROBE' (BWS) was used to collect 10-dm³ water samples at 5, 10, 20 and 40 cm above the seabed. The outer transect samples tended to be more influenced by the open western Baltic Sea, whereas the inner transect samples were more affected by the coastal hydrography. Aggregate size distribution was investigated using a newly developed particle camera allowing identification of particles down to 150 μm size. Increasing concentrations of total particulate matter (TPM), particulate organic carbon (POC) and chlorophyll pigment equivalents (CPE) towards the seafloor together with a low proportion of POC/TPM (<5%) implied that the material was of resuspended origin. Aggregate size in both transects was positively correlated with TPM, transparent exopolymer particles (TEP) and bacterial cell abundance. Higher particle concentrations and aggregate numbers in the outer transect indicated a higher resuspension frequency, or lateral advection processes. The higher concentration of aggregates at the outer transect may reflect the larger amount of near-bottom transported material.     

Pesticides in Sediments From Queensland Irrigation Channels and Drains

Pesticide concentration in sediment from irrigation areas can provide information required to assess exposure and fate of these chemicals in freshwater ecosystems and their likely impacts to the marine environment. In this study, 103 sediment samples collected from irrigation channels and drains in 11 agricultural areas of Queensland were analysed for a series of past and presently used pesticides including various organochlorines, synthetic pyrethroids, benzoyl ureas, triazines and organophosphates. The most often detected compounds were endosulphans (, β and/or endosulphan sulphate) which were detectable in 78 of the 103 samples and levels ranged from below the limit of quantification (0.1 ng g⁻¹ dw) up to 840 ng g⁻¹ dw. DDT and its metabolites were the second most often detected pesticide investigated (74 of the 103 samples) with concentrations up to 240 ng g⁻¹ dw of ∑DDTs. Mean ∑endosulphan and ∑DDT concentrations were 1–2 orders of magnitude higher in sediments from the irrigation areas which are dominated by cotton cultivation compared to those which are dominated by sugarcane cultivation. In contrast to these insecticides, the herbicides diuron, atrazine and ametryn were the compounds which were most often detected in sediments from irrigation drains in sugarcane areas with maximum concentrations in areas of 120, 70 and 130 ng g⁻¹ dw, respectively. In particular during flood events, when light is limiting, transport of these photosynthesis inhibiting herbicides from the sugarcane cultivation areas to the marine environment may result in additional stress of marine plants.     

Gas hydrates in shallow deposits of the Amsterdam mud volcano, Anaximander Mountains, Northeastern Mediterranean Sea

We investigated gas hydrate in situ inventories as well as the composition and principal transport mechanisms of fluids expelled at the Amsterdam mud volcano (AMV; 2,025 m water depth) in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. Pressure coring (the only technique preventing hydrates from decomposition during recovery) was used for the quantification of light hydrocarbons in near-surface deposits. The cores (up to 2.5 m in length) were retrieved with an autoclave piston corer, and served for analyses of gas quantities and compositions, and pore-water chemistry. For comparison, gravity cores from sites at the summit and beyond the AMV were analyzed. A prevalence of thermogenic light hydrocarbons was inferred from average C₁/C₂₊ ratios <35 and δ¹³C-CH₄ values of ?50.6‰. Gas venting from the seafloor indicated methane oversaturation, and volumetric gas–sediment ratios of up to 17.0 in pressure cores taken from the center demonstrated hydrate presence at the time of sampling. Relative enrichments in ethane, propane, and iso-butane in gas released from pressure cores, and from an intact hydrate piece compared to venting gas suggest incipient crystallization of hydrate structure II (sII). Nonetheless, the co-existence of sI hydrate can not be excluded from our dataset. Hydrates fill up to 16.7% of pore volume within the sediment interval between the base of the sulfate zone and the maximum sampling depth at the summit. The concave-down shapes of pore-water concentration profiles recorded in the center indicate the influence of upward-directed advection of low-salinity fluids/fluidized mud. Furthermore, the SO ₄ ^2? and Ba²⁺ pore-water profiles in the central part of the AMV demonstrate that sulfate reduction driven by the anaerobic oxidation of methane is complete at depths between 30 cm and 70 cm below seafloor. Our results indicate that methane oversaturation, high hydrostatic pressure, and elevated pore-water activity caused by low salinity promote fixing of considerable proportions of light hydrocarbons in shallow hydrates even at the summit of the AMV, and possibly also of other MVs in the region. Depending on their crystallographic structure, however, hydrates will already decompose and release hydrocarbon masses if sediment temperatures exceed ca. 19.3°C and 21.0°C, respectively. Based on observations from other mud volcanoes, the common occurrence of such temperatures induced by heat flux from below into the immediate subsurface appears likely for the AMV.     

The vulnerability of beach tourism to climate change—an index approach

The attractiveness of a region for touristic activities depends strongly on the local weather and climate. This paper analyses the vulnerability of the beach tourism sector towards climate change by means of an index approach on a country level. A vulnerability framework for the tourism sector is developed and on its basis, indicators are defined for exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. A transparent index approach, including a robustness analysis with multiple transformation methods and weighting sets, yields an assessment of the overall relative vulnerability of the beach tourism sector in 51 countries. Aggregate results on an annual level are presented as a starting point for a more detailed comparison of countries based on the individual indicators. The important limitations regarding the availability of accurate indicators as well as the concept of vulnerability itself are discussed. Despite these limitations, the present study contributes to integrating the numerous direct as well as indirect effects climate change may have on beach tourism.     

Westerlund 1: bound or unbound?

The Galactic open cluster Westerlund 1 (Wd 1) represents the ideal local template for extragalactic young massive star clusters, because it is currently the only nearby young cluster with a mass of ～10⁵?M_⊙. Its proximity makes spatially resolved studies of its stellar population feasible, and additionally permits direct comparison of its properties with measurements of velocity dispersion and dynamical mass for spatially unresolved extragalactic clusters. Recently, we published the dynamical mass estimate based on spectra of four red supergiants. We have now identified six additional stars which allow a determination of radial velocity from the wavelength covered in our VLT/ISAAC near-infrared spectra (CO bandhead region near 2.29 μm), significantly improving statistics. Using a combination of stepping and scanning the slit across the cluster center, we covered an area which included the following suitable spectral types: four red supergiants, five yellow hypergiants, and one B-type emission-line star. Our measured velocity dispersion is 9.2 km?s^?1. Together with the cluster size of 0.86 pc, derived from archival near-infrared SOFI-NTT images, this yields a dynamical mass of 1.5×10⁵ M_⊙. Comparing this to the mass derived via photometry, there is no indication that the cluster is currently undergoing dissolution.     

Impact of fertilizer application and urban wastes on the quality of groundwater in the Cambrai Chalk aquifer,Northern France

Since 1975, Europe sets up its policy to limit the degradation and the pollution of the aquatic environments through 30 directives and regulations. In the north of France, the nitrate concentrations measured in the groundwater exceed the water drinking limit fixed at 50 mg/L by the European framework directive in the field of water (2000/60/EC). This high concentration is due to intensive agriculture, industrialization and demographic growth. Several programs were launched in order to resolve this situation: “Ferti-better” or the use of fertilizer in moderation and installation and amelioration of wastewater collect and treatment systems. In order to estimate the influence of the anthropic activities on the quality of groundwater in the “Artois-Picardy” basin, a preliminary validation on parcel and district scale were necessary. The impact of these programs in the “Cambrai district” was evaluated using an integrated approach, which is based on the use of four numerical models: AgriFlux, VS2DT, Modflow and MT3D. The results illustrate an improvement due to the “Ferti-Better” program initiated in 1990 and punctual degradation under urbanized areas. Predictions (2015) show a spatial evolution of nitrates concentration varying with the thickness of unsaturated layer. The integrated model constitutes an efficient tool for predicting the evolution of the groundwater quality. This approach is important to control the application of the new European laws in the water field.     

Biogeochemical controls on authigenic carbonate formation at the Chapopote “asphalt volcano”, Bay of Campeche

The Campeche Knolls in the Bay of Campeche, southern Gulf of Mexico, were investigated through detailed seafloor mapping, ROV surveys, and sediment and pore water sampling. The knolls are elongated, submarine hills created by salt tectonics with a positive relief of up to 800 m above the surrounding seafloor. Several of the knolls are associated with sea-surface oil slicks identified from satellite data, indicating the presence of hydrocarbon seeps on the seafloor. One of the knolls, named “Chapopote”, was studied in detail during two international research expeditions (SO174/2 and M67/2) and is characterized by extensive hydrocarbon seepage including large asphalt flows, oil and gas seeps, and seafloor gas hydrate deposits. Chemosymbiotic biological communities and authigenic carbonate deposits are associated with the seeps and are the result of both biogeochemical turnover and the interaction between downward-diffusing seawater and hydrocarbon-rich pore fluids at shallow sediment depth. Authigenic carbonates are characterized by aragonite, exhibit a porous texture, and are cemented by a matrix of microsparitic to sparitic aragonite. Macropores of the carbonates were completely filled with liquid oil. Carbonate microfabrics include peloidal or clotted fabrics that may indicate the existence of microenvironments resulting from microbial metabolism. Banded/botryoidal aragonite cements line the intra- and bioclasts and incompletely fill the pore spaces. The stable carbon isotopic composition of authigenic aragonite varies between − 28.6‰ and − 17.9‰ (PDB), identifying oil oxidation as the primary source of carbon to the DIC pool, while lipid biomarker data demonstrate the concurrent existence of microbial communities responsible for anaerobic oxidation of methane (AOM). These observations indicate the presence of additional, AOM-independent reactions responsible for carbon sequestration at hydrocarbon seeps and demonstrate the complexity of biogeochemical processes at seep sites in the Gulf of Mexico basin. Oxygen isotope data of authigenic aragonite vary from + 2.5‰ to + 3.8‰ (PDB), indicating carbonate precipitation in slight disequilibrium with the surrounding pore fluids.