Econometric analysis of the ship demolition market

The topic of ship recycling has obtained considerable attention during the last two decades for a variety of reasons with the likelihood of the adoption of a new international convention under the auspices of the International Maritime Organization (IMO). This study applies econometric modeling to a unique data set to provide insight into the dynamics of the ship recycling market. The data set contains information on 51,112 ships over 100 gt and includes 748,621 events over a period of 29 years. The analysis confirms a negative relationship of earnings and a positive relationship of scrap prices for all locations while Bangladesh seems to be more sensitive to changes in earnings than the other locations and more likely demolishes larger and older vessels. The results for flag and ownership vary across scrapping locations with Malta and Cyprus indicating potential importance from a registry perspective. The overall safety profile of a vessel seems to be less important towards the probability of a ship being scrapped. Possible implementation of the convention at EU level will mostly likely affect Turkey while non-ratification of one of the major flags will most likely affect China or Bangladesh.     

Features of coastal upwelling regions that determine net air-sea CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> flux

The influence of the coastal ocean on global net annual air-sea CO₂ fluxes remains uncertain. However, it is well known that air-sea pCO₂ disequilibria can be large (ocean pCO₂ ranging from ∼400 μatm above atmospheric saturation to ∼250 μatm below) in eastern boundary currents, and it has been hypothesized that these regions may be an appreciable net carbon sink. In addition it has been shown that the high productivity in these regions (responsible for the exceptionally low surface pCO₂) can cause nutrients and inorganic carbon to become more concentrated in the lower layer of the water column over the shelf relative to adjacent open ocean waters of the same density. This paper explores the potential role of the winter season in determining the net annual CO₂ flux in temperate zone eastern boundary currents, using the results from a box model. The model is parameterized and forced to represent the northernmost part of the upwelling region on the North American Pacific coast. Model results are compared to the few summer data that exist in that region. The model is also used to determine the effect that upwelling and downwelling strength have on the net annual CO₂ flux. Results show that downwelling may play an important role in limiting the amount of CO₂ outgassing that occurs during winter. Finally data from three distinct regions on the Pacific coast are compared to highlight the importance of upwelling and downwelling strength in determining carbon fluxes in eastern boundary currents and to suggest that other features, such as shelf width, are likely to be important.     

Volume relaxation of compacted SiO2 glass: a model for the conservation of natural diaplectic glasses

Relaxation experiments on vitreous SiO₂, densified at 900°C, 20 kbar to a permanent density of 2.36 g cm^?3 yield an activation energy of69 ± 5kcal mol^?1 in the temperature range 700–800°C. The data can be used to estimate minimum cooling rates, maximum depositional temperatures or maximum thicknesses of shock-metamorphosed rocks containing diaplectic glasses, if relaxation of a glass densified under dynamic conditions is assumed to be similar to that of statically densified glass.     

On forecasting abnormal climatic events in the tropical Atlantic Ocean

Modelling and observational evidence indicate that interannual variabilities of dynamic height and sea surface temperature (SST) in the eastern part of the tropical Atlantic Ocean (Gulf of Guinea) are largely induced by preceding fluctuations in wind stress, mainly in the western equatorial basin. A wind-driven linear ocean model is used here to test the possibility of forecasting the abnormal dynamic heights. A control run of the model, forced by 1964–1993 wind stress monthly means, is first conducted. Yearly test runs (1964-1994) are subsequently performed from January to August by forcing the model with observed winds from January to May, and then by forcing with the May wind assumed to persist from June to August. During the last three decades the largest deviations of dynamic height simulated by the control run in the Gulf of Guinea in boreal summer would have been correctly forecast from wind data related only to conditions in May of each year. However, for weak climatic anomalies, the model may forecast overestimated values. For the most part (about 20 times during the last 30 years), the sign of the observed SST anomaly in the centre of the Gulf of Guinea during the boreal summer is identical to the sign of simulated anomalies of dynamic height deduced from both control and test runs. Along the eastern equatorial waveguide, the sea level forecasting skill slowly decreases from the first 2 weeks of June until the second 2 weeks of August, but remains high on both sides of the equator throughout boreal summer, as is expected from the adjustment in a linear ocean model. It is established that throughout the year in the Gulf of Guinea the accuracy of the 1-month forecast dynamic height anomaly provided by the simple linear method is greater than that of the 1-month forecast assuming persistence.     

The influence of natural organic matter on the adsorption properties of mineral particles in lake water

The adsorption characteristics of sediment particles from a prealpine Swiss lake were compared with those of γ-aluminum oxide. Under lake water conditions, i.e. with particle concentration of 2–16 mg/1 and DOC concentrations of 1–4 mg/1 at pH=8, the adsorption of copper, zinc and orthophosphate is reduced significantly by the presence of natural organic matter (NOM). It is postulated that the binding sites of the natural mineral surfaces are occupied almost completely by NOM under natural conditions. A simple ligand exchange model can explain the observed phenomena.     

Possible contribution of leakage currents from the Atlantic Ocean to the magnetic-field variations observed in Devon

It is suggested that leakage currents flow across Devon, north of Exeter, from large-scale electric-current systems induced in the Atlantic Ocean by the geomagnetic variations incident on the Atlantic Ocean from the ionosphere. This model can account for the variation with period of the contribution of induced current flow to the differences in the magnetic H variations of period > 30 s observed at Exeter and Sidmouth.     

On different time scales of suspended matter dynamics in the Weser estuary

Long-term observations in the Weser estuary (Germany) between 1983 and 1997 provide insight into the response of the estuarine turbidity maximum (ETM) under a wide range of conditions. In this estuary the turbidity zone is closely tied to the mixing zone, and the positions of the ETM and the mixing zone vary with runoff. The intratidal suspended particulate matter (SPM) concentrations vary due to deposition during slack water periods, subsequent resubsequent and depletion of temporarily-formed and spatially-limited deposits during the following ebb or flood, and subsequent transport by tidal currents. The corresponding time history of SPM concentrations is remarkably constant over the years. Spring tide SPM concentrations can be twice the neap tide concentrations or even larger. A hysteresis in SPM levels between the falling and rising spring-neap cycle is attributed to enhanced resuspension by the stronger spring tidal currents. There is evidence that the ETM is pushed up-estuary during times of higher mean water levels due to storms. During river floods the ETM is flushed towards the outer estuary. If river floods and their decreasing parts occur during times of relatively high mean water levels, the ETM seems to be maintained in the outer estuary. If river floods and their decreasing parts occur during times of relatively low mean water levels, the ETM seems to loose inventory and may need up to half a year of non-event conditions to gain its former magnitude. During this time seasonal effects may be involved. Analyses of storm events and river floods have revealed that the conditions in the seaward boundary region play an equally important role for the SPM dynamics as those arising from the river.     

The Central Andean gravity high, a relic of an old subduction complex?

The Central Andean gravity high (CAGH) is a positive anomaly in isostatic residual gravity with its center located at the western flank of the Central Andes at about 24°S. The gravity was analyzed by various methods to draw quantitative conclusions about the sources of this anomaly and their process of formation. Methods include the analysis of the gravity gradients, power spectrum, wavelength filters, and Euler deconvolution.Numerical investigations of gravity field in the area of the CAGH indicate the presence of a dense body of nearly 400 km length and about 100–140 km width, that masses lie at varying depths between 10 and 38 km. A correlation between the location of the residual anomalies and the topographic lows in the area between the Salars de Atacama and Pipanaco is observed, which indicates the strong influence of the anomalous-causing rocks of the CAGH within the formation process of the Andean orogen. An influence of these causing bodies of rock on the trend of Holocene volcanic arc is likely. Genesis of the anomalous dense formations of rock could be traced back to Ordovician–Silurian time when a pre-Andean subduction zone is postulated in the region of northern Chile with its corresponding volcanic arc in the region of the CAGH.

Zusammenfassung

El campo de gravedad alto de los Andes Centrales (CAGH) consiste en una pronunciada anomalía positiva de la gravedad isostática, cuyo centro se encuentra en el borde oeste de los Andes Centrales a los 24°S. En este estudio se analizó el campo de gravedad mediante distintos métodos, de manera de poder establecer conclusiones cuantitativas sobre el causante de esta anomalía y el proceso de formación de este causante.La investigación numérica de las anomalías gravimétricas del CAGH indica la presencia de un cuerpo de alta densidad con aproximadamente 400 km de largo y 100–140 km de ancho, que se encuentra a profundidades variables entre 10 y 38 km. Se observa una correlación entre la posición de la anomalía residual y los bajos topográficos en los areas de Salares de Atacama, Arizaro, Antofalla y Pipanaco, la cual indica una fuerte influencia de rocas productoras de la anomalía en el CAGH, dentro del proceso de formación del orógeno andino. Es probable que estos cuerpos de rocas causantes de la anomalía tengan incluso influencia en el alineamiento del arco volcánico holocénico. La generación de cuerpos de rocas con una densidad anómala puede remontarse al Ordovícico–Silúrico, tiempo para el que postula una subducción pre-Andina en la región del norte de Chile y que corresponde con el arco volcánico en la región del CAGH.     

Restoration of submerged vegetation in shallow eutrophic lakes – A guideline and state of the art in Germany

One of the most serious problems caused by eutrophication of shallow lakes is the disappearance of submerged macrophytes and the switch to a turbid, phytoplankton-dominated state. The reduction of external nutrient loads often does not result in a change back to the macrophyte-dominated state because stabilising mechanisms that cause resilience may delay a response. Additional internal lake restoration measures may therefore be needed to decrease the concentration of total phosphorus and increase water clarity. The re-establishment of submerged macrophytes required for a long-term stability of clear water conditions, however, may still fail, or mass developments of tall-growing species may cause nuisance for recreational use. Both cases are often not taken into account when restoration measures are planned in Germany, and existing schemes to reduce eutrophication consider the topic inadequately. Here we develop a step-by-step guideline to assess the chances of submerged macrophyte re-establishment in shallow lakes. We reviewed and rated the existing literature and case studies with special regard on (1) the impact of different internal lake restoration methods on the development of submerged macrophytes, (2) methods for the assessment of natural re-establishment, (3) requirements and methods for artificial support of submerged macrophyte development and (4) management options of macrophyte species diversity and abundance in Germany. This guideline is intended to help lake managers aiming to restore shallow lakes in Germany to critically asses and predict the potential development of submerged vegetation, taking into account the complex factors and interrelations that determine their occurrence, abundance and diversity.