The influence of negative emission technologies and technology policies on the optimal climate mitigation portfolio

Combining policies to remove carbon dioxide (CO₂) from the atmosphere with policies to reduce emissions could decrease CO₂ concentrations faster than possible via natural processes. We model the optimal selection of a dynamic portfolio of abatement, research and development (R&D), and negative emission policies under an exogenous CO₂ constraint and with stochastic technological change. We find that near-term abatement is not sensitive to the availability of R&D policies, but the anticipated availability of negative emission strategies can reduce the near-term abatement optimally undertaken to meet 2°C temperature limits. Further, planning to deploy negative emission technologies shifts optimal R&D funding from ??carbon-free?? technologies into ??emission intensity?? technologies. Making negative emission strategies available enables an 80% reduction in the cost of keeping year 2100 CO₂ concentrations near their current level. However, negative emission strategies are less important if the possibility of tipping points rules out using late-century net negative emissions to temporarily overshoot the CO₂ constraint earlier in the century.     

Rural household demographics, livelihoods and the environment

This paper reviews and synthesizes findings from scholarly work on linkages among rural household demographics, livelihoods and the environment. Using the livelihood approach as an organizing framework, we examine evidence on the multiple pathways linking environmental variables and the following demographic variables: fertility, migration, morbidity and mortality, and lifecycles. Although the review draws on studies from the entire developing world, we find the majority of microlevel studies have been conducted in either marginal (mountainous or arid) or frontier environments, especially Amazonia. Though the linkages are mediated by many complex and often context-specific factors, there is strong evidence that dependence on natural resources intensifies when households lose human and social capital through adult morbidity and mortality, and qualified evidence for the influence of environmental factors on household decision-making regarding fertility and migration. Two decades of research on lifecycles and land cover change at the farm level have yielded a number of insights about how households make use of different land-use and natural resource management strategies at different stages. A thread running throughout the review is the importance of managing risk through livelihood diversification, ensuring future income security, and culture-specific norms regarding appropriate and desirable activities and demographic responses. Recommendations for future research are provided.     

Melting and Sublimation of Planetary Ices Under Low Pressure Conditions: Laboratory Experiments with a Melting Probe Prototype

One possibility to explore the subsurface layers of icy bodies is to use a probe with a “hot tip", which is able to penetrate ice layers by melting. Such probes have been built and used in the past for the exploration of terrestrial polar ice sheets and may also become useful tools to explore other icy layers in the Solar System. Examples for such layers are the polar areas of Mars or the icy crust of Jupiter’s moon Europa. However, while on Earth a heated probe launched into an ice sheet always causes melting with subsequent refreezing, the behaviour of such a probe in a low pressure environment is quite different. We report on the results of some experiments with a simple “melting probe" prototype with two different kinds of hot tips in a vacuum environment. For one of the tips the probe moved into two types of ice samples: (i) compact water ice and (ii) porous water ice with a snow (firn) like texture. It was also found that the penetration behaviour was basically different for the two sample types even when the same kind of tip was used. While in the porous sample the ice was only subliming, the phase changes occurring during the interaction of the tip with the compact ice are much more complex. Here alternating phases of melting and sublimation occur. The absence of the liquid phase has severe consequences on the performance of a “melting probe" under vacuum conditions: In this environment we find a high thermal resistance between the probe surface and the underlying ice. Therefore, only a low percentage of the heat that is generated in the tip is used to melt or sublime the ice, the bulk of the power is transferred towards the rear end of the probe. This is particularly a problem in the initial phases of an ice penetration experiment, when the probe has not yet penetrated the ice over its whole length. In the compact ice sample, phases could be observed, where a high enough gas pressure had built up locally underneath the probe, so that melting becomes possible. Only during these melting periods the thermal contact between the probe and the ice is good and in consequence the melting probe works effectively.     

Options to overcome the barriers to pricing European agricultural emissions

Although agriculture could contribute substantially to European emission reductions, its mitigation potential lies untapped and dormant. Market-based instruments could be pivotal in incentivizing cost-effective abatement. However, sector specificities in transaction costs, leakage risks and distributional impacts impede its implementation. The significance of such barriers critically hinges on the dimensions of policy design. This article synthesizes the work on emissions pricing in agriculture together with the literature on the design of market-based instruments. To structure the discussion, an options space is suggested to map policy options, focusing on three key dimensions of policy design. More specifically, it examines the role of policy coverage, instruments and transfers to farmers in overcoming the barriers. First, the results show that a significant proportion of agricultural emissions and mitigation potential could be covered by a policy targeting large farms and few emission sources, thereby reducing transaction costs. Second, whether an instrument is voluntary or mandatory influences distributional outcomes and leakage. Voluntary instruments can mitigate distributional concerns and leakage risks but can lead to subsidy lock-in and carbon price distortion. Third, the impact on transfers resulting from the interaction of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) with emissions pricing will play a key role in shaping political feasibility and has so far been underappreciated.

POLICY RELEVANCE

Following the 2015 Paris Agreement, European climate policy is at a crossroads. Achieving cost-effectively the 2030 and 2050 European targets requires all sectors to reduce their emissions. Yet, the cornerstone of European climate policy, the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), covers only about half of European emissions. Major sectors have been so far largely exempted from carbon pricing, in particular transport and agriculture. While transport has been increasingly under the spotlight as a possible candidate for an EU ETS sectoral expansion, policy discussions on pricing agricultural emissions have been virtually absent. This article attempts to fill this gap by investigating options for market-based instruments to reduce agricultural emissions while taking barriers to implementation into account.     

Escaping the climate policy uncertainty trap: options contracts for REDD+

Climate policy uncertainty significantly hinders investments in low-carbon technologies, and the global community is behind schedule to curb carbon emissions. Strong actions will be necessary to limit the increase in global temperatures, and continued delays create risks of escalating climate change damages and future policy costs. These risks are system-wide, long-term and large-scale and thus hard to diversify across firms. Because of its unique scale, cost structure and near-term availability, Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation in developing countries (REDD+) has significant potential to help manage climate policy risks and facilitate the transition to lower greenhouse gas emissions. ‘Call’ options contracts in the form of the right but not the obligation to buy high-quality emissions reduction credits from jurisdictional REDD+ programmes at a predetermined price per ton of CO₂ could help unlock this potential despite the current lack of carbon markets that accept REDD+ for compliance. This approach could provide a globally important cost-containment mechanism and insurance for firms against higher future carbon prices, while channelling finance to avoid deforestation until policy uncertainties decline and carbon markets scale up.

Key policy insights

• Climate policy uncertainty discourages abatement investments, exposing firms to an escalating systemic risk of future rapid increases in emission control expenditures.

• This situation poses a risk of an abatement ‘short squeeze,’ paralleling the case in financial markets when prices jump sharply as investors rush to square accounts on an investment they have sold ‘short’, one they have bet against and promised to repay later in anticipation of falling prices.

• There is likely to be a willingness to pay for mechanisms that hedge the risks of abruptly rising carbon prices, in particular for ‘call’ options, the right but not the obligation to buy high-quality emissions reduction credits at a predetermined price, due to the significantly lower upfront capital expenditure compared to other hedging alternatives.

• Establishing rules as soon as possible for compliance market acceptance of high-quality emissions reductions credits from REDD+ would facilitate REDD+ transactions, including via options-based contracts, which could help fill the gap of uncertain climate policies in the short and medium term.

     

Behavior of arsenic and antimony in the surface freshwater reaches of a highly turbid estuary, the Gironde Estuary, France

This study reports on the behavior of two redox-sensitive elements, As and Sb, along the turbidity gradient in the freshwater reaches of the turbid Gironde Estuary. During a 17-month survey, surface water and suspended particulate matter (SPM) were sampled monthly at six sites representing both fluvial branches of the Gironde Estuary. Additionally, two longitudinal high resolution profiles were sampled along the fluvial estuary of the Garonne Branch during two contrasted seasons, i.e. with and without the presence of the maximum turbidity zone (MTZ). Seasonal variability and spatial distribution of dissolved (<0.2 μm; <0.02 μm) and particulate As, Sb and Fe were measured and combined with SPM data to understand metalloid behavior in the estuarine freshwater turbidity gradient.At the two main fluvial entries of the Gironde Estuary, dissolved As and Sb concentrations showed strong (by a factor of 2–4) seasonal variations, that were only partly controlled by discharge-related dilution. Seasonal addition of dissolved As and Sb was attributed to the degradation of particulate As and Sb carrier phases in bottom sediment and/or in the adjacent aquifers, rather than release from SPM. In the surface freshwater reaches of the Gironde Estuary, Sb behaved conservatively under all hydrological conditions. In contrast, As was strongly reactive in the presence of the MTZ, with opposite behaviors in the two fluvial branches of the estuary: in the Garonne Branch As was removed from the dissolved phase, whereas in the Dordogne Branch As was added. Redistribution of As between the dissolved and the particulate phases along the turbidity gradient in estuarine freshwater only affected the <0.02 μm fraction, as the 0.02–0.2 μm fraction remained constant (300 ng L⁻¹ in September 2005). Accordingly, As removal seemed to be decoupled from concomitant “colloidal” (0.02–0.2 μm) Fe flocculation in the turbidity gradient. The contrasting behavior of dissolved As in the fluvial estuaries of the Garonne and Dordogne Branches was attributed to sorption processes during equilibration of river-borne dissolved As with estuarine SPM forming the MTZ. This equilibrium, described by a distinct distribution coefficient K_d(As)  11,000 L kg⁻¹ in the MTZ, resulted in either As release (desorption; Dordogne Branch) or removal (adsorption; Garonne Branch) in the respective fluvial estuaries. A mixing experiment under controlled laboratory conditions tended to support that equilibration between the dissolved phase and MTZ particles may induce both As release and removal in the estuarine freshwater reaches, with As distribution evolving towards a distinct K_d value for increasing SPM concentrations. The long-term survey allowed estimating annual (2004) dissolved fluxes of As and, for the first time Sb, at the main fluvial entries of the Gironde Estuary at 30.7 t a⁻¹ and 3.2 t a⁻¹ (Garonne River) and at 8.0 t a⁻¹ and 2.3 t a⁻¹ (Dordogne River), respectively.     

Review on dating methods: Numerical dating in the quaternary geology of High Asia

Over the past few years, OSL and TCN datings of glacial material from High Asia have come into fashion. To this day, however, these techniques do not permit safe calibration. The intensity of the cosmic ray flux is being modulated by the solar and terrestrial magnetic fields and their secular fluctuations in the past. So far, these variations cannot be converted into the respective local TCN production rates for High Asia. We have reason to believe that the ages that are being calculated despite these uncertainties are generally overestimated. This assessment is supported by conventional radiocarbon dates and above all by the glacial chronology developed independently on the basis of the Quaternary geological method. The strongly emerging evidence for a much more extensive LGM glaciation of High Asia is, however, either being ignored or rejected by many authors, solely on the basis of the above-mentioned uncalibrated datings. This self-conceit based on the “dating fallacy”, as we call it, should be avoided since it goes decidedly against the standards of the scientific method established in Quaternary geology and makes a fundamental scientific discussion impossible.     

Using subsurface metazoan fauna to indicate groundwater–surface water interactions in the Nakdong River floodplain, South Korea

Hydrological interactions between surface water and groundwater (GW) can be described using hydrochemical and biological methods. Surface water–groundwater interactions and their effects on groundwater invertebrate communities were studied in the Nakdong River floodplain in South Korea. Furthermore, the GW-Fauna-Index, a promising new index for assessing the strength of surface-water influence on groundwater, was tested. The influence of surface water on groundwater decreased with increasing depth and distance from the river. While hydrochemistry prevailingly reflected the origin of the waters in the study area (i.e. whether alluvial or from adjacent rock), faunal communities seemed to display an affinity to surface-water intrusion. Fauna reacted quickly to changes in hydrology, and temporal changes in faunal community structure were significantly linked to the hydrological situation in the floodplain. The metazoan faunal community and the GW-Fauna-Index allow a distinction between surface and subsurface waters with varying degrees of exchange. The results indicate that hydrological conditions are reflected by faunal assemblages on a high spatiotemporal resolution, and that surface-water intrusion can be estimated using the GW-Fauna-Index.     

Global change and the biogeochemistry of the North Sea: the possible role of phytoplankton and phytoplankton grazing

Phytoplankton plays a dominant role in shelf biogeochemistry by producing the major part of organic matter. Part of the organic matter will reach the sediment where diagenetic processes like denitrification, apatite formation or burial will remove nutrients from the biogeochemical cycle. In this article current knowledge on the decadal plankton variability in the North Sea is summarized and possible implications of these changes for the biogeochemistry of the North Sea are discussed. Most of the observed interdecadal dynamics seem to be linked to large-scale oceanographic and atmospheric processes. Prominent changes in the North Sea ecosystem have taken place around 1979 and 1988. In general, the phytoplankton color (CPRS indicator of phytoplankton biomass) reached minimum values during the end of the 1970s and has increased especially since the mid 1980s. Changes with a similar timing have been identified in many time series from the North Sea through the entire ecosystem and are sometimes referred to as regime shifts. It is suggested that the impact of global change on the local biogeochemistry is largely driven by the phyto- and zooplankton dynamics during spring and early summer. At that time the extent of zooplankton–phytoplankton interaction either allows that a large part of the new production is settling to the sediment, or that a significant part of the new production including the fixed nutrients is kept within the pelagic system. The origin of the extent of the phytoplankton–zooplankton interaction in spring is probably set in the previous autumn and winter. In coastal areas, both large-scale atmospheric and oceanographic changes as well as anthropogenic factors influence the long-term dynamics. Due to eutrophication, local primary production nowadays still is up to five times higher than during pre-industrial conditions, despite a decreasing trend. Recently, introduced species have strengthened the filter feeder component of coastal ecosystems. Especially in shallow coastal seas like the Wadden Sea, this will enhance particle retention, shift organic matter degradation to the benthic compartment and enhance nutrient removal from the biogeochemical cycle by denitrification or apatite formation.