Econometric analysis to differentiate effects of various ship safety inspections

This article provides a refined technique to measure and interpret variables associated with the quality of an inspection—be it port state control or vetting inspections towards the probability of a very serious, serious or less serious casualty. It concentrates on filtering out the effect of variables such as detention, the port state control regime that inspected the vessel, time in-between inspections, deficiencies found during an inspection and the effect of vetting inspections. The consensus amongst policy makers in the shipping industry is that data cannot be combined to target vessels. While this article does demonstrate that the decrease in the probability of casualty is stronger for the South American Region, the Indian Ocean Region and Australia versus North Europe, North America or the Caribbean, it also demonstrates that the data can be combined to target vessels for inspections. Since the time in-between inspections and detention is mostly not significant towards decreasing the probability of casualty, these results reflect the lack of coordination amongst port state control regimes and industry inspections. Due to this lack of coordination and trust, a ship might be inspected in several regimes during a relative short time period where the benefit of an inspection can be easily saturated. Our recommendation on direct policy implication is to promote the harmonization of inspection databases across port state control regimes, preferably with the coordination of the development of the Global Integrated Ship Information System (GISIS) of the International Maritime Organization (IMO), to review the policy of a release of a vessel from detention and to increase cooperation amongst regimes with respect to the follow up of the rectification of deficiencies.     

Econometric analysis of the ship demolition market

The topic of ship recycling has obtained considerable attention during the last two decades for a variety of reasons with the likelihood of the adoption of a new international convention under the auspices of the International Maritime Organization (IMO). This study applies econometric modeling to a unique data set to provide insight into the dynamics of the ship recycling market. The data set contains information on 51,112 ships over 100 gt and includes 748,621 events over a period of 29 years. The analysis confirms a negative relationship of earnings and a positive relationship of scrap prices for all locations while Bangladesh seems to be more sensitive to changes in earnings than the other locations and more likely demolishes larger and older vessels. The results for flag and ownership vary across scrapping locations with Malta and Cyprus indicating potential importance from a registry perspective. The overall safety profile of a vessel seems to be less important towards the probability of a ship being scrapped. Possible implementation of the convention at EU level will mostly likely affect Turkey while non-ratification of one of the major flags will most likely affect China or Bangladesh.     

Features of coastal upwelling regions that determine net air-sea CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> flux

The influence of the coastal ocean on global net annual air-sea CO₂ fluxes remains uncertain. However, it is well known that air-sea pCO₂ disequilibria can be large (ocean pCO₂ ranging from ∼400 μatm above atmospheric saturation to ∼250 μatm below) in eastern boundary currents, and it has been hypothesized that these regions may be an appreciable net carbon sink. In addition it has been shown that the high productivity in these regions (responsible for the exceptionally low surface pCO₂) can cause nutrients and inorganic carbon to become more concentrated in the lower layer of the water column over the shelf relative to adjacent open ocean waters of the same density. This paper explores the potential role of the winter season in determining the net annual CO₂ flux in temperate zone eastern boundary currents, using the results from a box model. The model is parameterized and forced to represent the northernmost part of the upwelling region on the North American Pacific coast. Model results are compared to the few summer data that exist in that region. The model is also used to determine the effect that upwelling and downwelling strength have on the net annual CO₂ flux. Results show that downwelling may play an important role in limiting the amount of CO₂ outgassing that occurs during winter. Finally data from three distinct regions on the Pacific coast are compared to highlight the importance of upwelling and downwelling strength in determining carbon fluxes in eastern boundary currents and to suggest that other features, such as shelf width, are likely to be important.     

Volume relaxation of compacted SiO2 glass: a model for the conservation of natural diaplectic glasses

Relaxation experiments on vitreous SiO₂, densified at 900°C, 20 kbar to a permanent density of 2.36 g cm^?3 yield an activation energy of69 ± 5kcal mol^?1 in the temperature range 700–800°C. The data can be used to estimate minimum cooling rates, maximum depositional temperatures or maximum thicknesses of shock-metamorphosed rocks containing diaplectic glasses, if relaxation of a glass densified under dynamic conditions is assumed to be similar to that of statically densified glass.     

On forecasting abnormal climatic events in the tropical Atlantic Ocean

Modelling and observational evidence indicate that interannual variabilities of dynamic height and sea surface temperature (SST) in the eastern part of the tropical Atlantic Ocean (Gulf of Guinea) are largely induced by preceding fluctuations in wind stress, mainly in the western equatorial basin. A wind-driven linear ocean model is used here to test the possibility of forecasting the abnormal dynamic heights. A control run of the model, forced by 1964–1993 wind stress monthly means, is first conducted. Yearly test runs (1964-1994) are subsequently performed from January to August by forcing the model with observed winds from January to May, and then by forcing with the May wind assumed to persist from June to August. During the last three decades the largest deviations of dynamic height simulated by the control run in the Gulf of Guinea in boreal summer would have been correctly forecast from wind data related only to conditions in May of each year. However, for weak climatic anomalies, the model may forecast overestimated values. For the most part (about 20 times during the last 30 years), the sign of the observed SST anomaly in the centre of the Gulf of Guinea during the boreal summer is identical to the sign of simulated anomalies of dynamic height deduced from both control and test runs. Along the eastern equatorial waveguide, the sea level forecasting skill slowly decreases from the first 2 weeks of June until the second 2 weeks of August, but remains high on both sides of the equator throughout boreal summer, as is expected from the adjustment in a linear ocean model. It is established that throughout the year in the Gulf of Guinea the accuracy of the 1-month forecast dynamic height anomaly provided by the simple linear method is greater than that of the 1-month forecast assuming persistence.     

The influence of natural organic matter on the adsorption properties of mineral particles in lake water

The adsorption characteristics of sediment particles from a prealpine Swiss lake were compared with those of γ-aluminum oxide. Under lake water conditions, i.e. with particle concentration of 2–16 mg/1 and DOC concentrations of 1–4 mg/1 at pH=8, the adsorption of copper, zinc and orthophosphate is reduced significantly by the presence of natural organic matter (NOM). It is postulated that the binding sites of the natural mineral surfaces are occupied almost completely by NOM under natural conditions. A simple ligand exchange model can explain the observed phenomena.     

Restoration of submerged vegetation in shallow eutrophic lakes – A guideline and state of the art in Germany

One of the most serious problems caused by eutrophication of shallow lakes is the disappearance of submerged macrophytes and the switch to a turbid, phytoplankton-dominated state. The reduction of external nutrient loads often does not result in a change back to the macrophyte-dominated state because stabilising mechanisms that cause resilience may delay a response. Additional internal lake restoration measures may therefore be needed to decrease the concentration of total phosphorus and increase water clarity. The re-establishment of submerged macrophytes required for a long-term stability of clear water conditions, however, may still fail, or mass developments of tall-growing species may cause nuisance for recreational use. Both cases are often not taken into account when restoration measures are planned in Germany, and existing schemes to reduce eutrophication consider the topic inadequately. Here we develop a step-by-step guideline to assess the chances of submerged macrophyte re-establishment in shallow lakes. We reviewed and rated the existing literature and case studies with special regard on (1) the impact of different internal lake restoration methods on the development of submerged macrophytes, (2) methods for the assessment of natural re-establishment, (3) requirements and methods for artificial support of submerged macrophyte development and (4) management options of macrophyte species diversity and abundance in Germany. This guideline is intended to help lake managers aiming to restore shallow lakes in Germany to critically asses and predict the potential development of submerged vegetation, taking into account the complex factors and interrelations that determine their occurrence, abundance and diversity.     

Laboratory simulation experiments on the solid-state greenhouse effect in planetary ices

Icy surfaces like the polar caps of Mars, comets, Edgeworth-Kuiper belt objects or the surface areas of many moons in the outer Solar System behave different than rock and soil surfaces when irradiated by solar light. The latter ones absorb and reflect incoming solar radiation immediately at the surface. In contrast, ices are partially transparent in the visible spectral range and opaque in the infrared. Due to this fact it is possible for the solar radiation to reach a certain depth and increase the temperature of the sub-surface layers directly. This internal temperature rise is called “solid-state greenhouse effect,” in analogy to the classical greenhouse effect in an atmosphere. It may play an important role in the energy balance of various icy bodies in the Solar System. Within the scope of a project conducted at the Space Research Institute of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Graz the solid-state greenhouse effect was investigated experimentally and theoretically. A number of experiments with diverse materials, focussing mainly on layered samples with a surface cover consisting of transparent H₂O-ice, were performed. The samples were irradiated under cryo-vacuum conditions by a solar simulator. The temperature distributions inside the samples were measured and compared with the results of numerical model calculations. We found that the predicted sub-surface temperature maximum is very clearly measurable in glass beads samples with various particle size distributions, but can also be detected in transparent compact surface ice layers. However, in the latter case it is less distinct than originally expected. Measuring the effect by laboratory methods turned out to be a difficult task due to the shallow depth where the temperature maximum occurs.