A mass‐balance approach to estimate in‐stream processes in a large river

A mass‐balance approach was used to estimate in‐stream processes related to inorganic nitrogen species (NH₄⁺, NO₂^? and NO₃^?) in a large river characterized by highly variable hydrological conditions, the Garonne River (south‐west France). Studies were conducted in two consecutive reaches of 30 km located downstream of the Toulouse agglomeration (population 760 000, seventh order), impacted by modification of discharge regime and high nitrogen concentrations. The mass‐balance was calculated by two methods: the first is based on a variable residence time (VRT) simulated by a one‐dimensional (1‐D) hydraulic model; the second is a based on a calculation using constant residence time (CRT) evaluated according to hydrographic peaks. In the context of the study, removal of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) for a reach of 30 km is underestimated by 11% with the CRT method. In sub‐reaches, the discrepancy between the two methods led to a 50% overestimation of DIN removal in the upper reach (13 km) and a 43% underestimation in the lower reach (17 km) using the CRT method. The study highlights the importance of residence time determination when using modelling approaches in the assessment of whole stream processes in short‐duration mass‐balance for a large river under variable hydrological conditions. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Consequences of past climate change for species engaged in obligatory interactions

Obligatory interactions between species are fundamental to ecosystem functioning and are expected to be particularly sensitive to climate change. Although the effect of past and current climate changes on individual species has been thoroughly investigated, their effect on obligatory interactions has been overlooked. In this review, we present predictions about the effects of climate change on obligatory interactions and illustrate these predictions with examples from the literature. We focus on abrupt past climate change, especially during the Quaternary, because knowing past responses is useful for understanding and predicting the response of organisms and ecosystems to the current climate change. We also pinpoint the need for better time calibration of demographic events from genetic data, and for more studies focused on particularly suitable biological models. We hope that this review will stimulate interaction between the earth sciences and the life sciences on this timely topic.     

Space-time kriging of precipitation variability in Turkey for the period 1976–2010

The purpose of this study is to revaluate the changing spatial and temporal trends of precipitation in Turkey. Turkey is located in one of the regions at greatest risk from the potential effects of climate change. Since the 1970s, a decreasing trend in annual precipitation has been observed, in addition to an increasing number of precipitation-related natural hazards such as floods, extreme precipitation, and droughts. An understanding of the temporal and spatial characteristics of precipitation is therefore crucial to hazard management as well as planning and managing water resources, which depend heavily on precipitation. The ordinary kriging method was employed to interpolate precipitation estimates using precipitation records from 228 meteorological stations across the country for the period 1976–2010. A decreasing trend was observed across the Central Anatolian region, except for 1996–2000 which saw an increase in precipitation. However, this same period is identified as the driest year in Eastern and South Eastern Anatolia. The Eastern Black Sea region has the highest precipitation in the country; after 1996, an increase in annual precipitation in this region is observed. An overall reduction is also seen in southwest Turkey, with less variation in precipitation.

     

A Time Monte Carlo method for addressing uncertainty in land-use change models

One of the main objectives of land-use change models is to explore future land-use patterns. Therefore, the issue of addressing uncertainty in land-use forecasting has received an increasing attention in recent years. Many current models consider uncertainty by including a randomness component in their structure. In this paper, we present a novel approach for tuning uncertainty over time, which we refer to as the Time Monte Carlo (TMC) method. The TMC uses a specific range of randomness to allocate new land uses. This range is associated with the transition probabilities from one land use to another. The range of randomness is increased over time so that the degree of uncertainty increases over time. We compare the TMC to the randomness components used in previous models, through a coupled logistic regression-cellular automata model applied for Wallonia (Belgium) as a case study. Our analysis reveals that the TMC produces results comparable with existing methods over the short-term validation period (2000–2010). Furthermore, the TMC can tune uncertainty on longer-term time horizons, which is an essential feature of our method to account for greater uncertainty in the distant future.     

Baily’s Beads Atlas in 2005 – 2008 Eclipses

In the annular or total eclipses of 3 October 2005, 29 March 2006, 22 September 2006, and 1 August 2008, observational campaigns were organized to record the phenomenon of Baily’s beads. These campaigns were internationally coordinated through the International Occultation Timing Association (IOTA) at both its American and European sections. From the stations in the northern and southern zones of grazing eclipse, the eclipses have been recorded on video. Afterward, as many beads as possible have been identified by analyzing the video data of each observing station. The atlas presented in this paper includes 598 data points, obtained by 23 observers operating at 28 different observing stations. The atlas lists the geographic positions of the observing stations and the observed time instants of disappearance or reappearance of beads, identified by an angle measured relative to the Moon’s axis of rotation. The atlas will serve as a basis for determining the solar diameter. Electronic Supplementary Material  The online version of this article () contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Laser Ablation (U-Th-Sm)/He Dating of Zircons: Analytical Age Bias and its Consequence for Studying Detrital Zircon Populations

The in situ (U-Th-Sm)/He and U/Pb laser-ablation double-dating procedure is a valuable method that can provide a large dataset relatively efficiently in contrast with conventional bulk helium thermochronometry. In this study, we evaluate the potential age error associated with the double ablation procedure and report the in situ (U-Th-Sm)/He double-ablation dating of 249 zircons from the Fish Canyon Tuff locality. With LA-ICP-MS pseudo-depth profiling and 3D numerical modelling, we show that the concentric double-ablation procedure in minerals with U-Th-Sm zoning can generate a significant (U-Th-Sm)/He age error (positive or negative), resulting in over-scattering and/or an offset of the mean age. Pseudo-depth profiling is insufficient to predict the individual age error, partly because of the superimposed ablations. To evaluate the consequence of this inherent bias, we confront a synthetic age distribution to the error expected for U-Th-Sm zoned zircons analysed with double-ablation (U-Th-Sm)/He thermochronometry. As expected, a strong age bias causes the spreading of peak ages, downgrading the original signal. Yet, the throughput of the ablation-based method can allow intra- and inter-sample peak age identification and comparison, and the coupling of (U-Th-Sm)/He and U/Pb ages extends our ability to deconvolute a multimodal age spectrum.     

Swift observations of the X-ray and UV evolution of V2491 Cyg (Nova Cyg 2008 No. 2)

We present extensive, high-density Swift observations of V2491 Cyg (Nova Cyg 2008 No. 2). Observing the X-ray emission from only one day after the nova discovery, the source is followed through the initial brightening, the super-soft source phase and back to the pre-outburst flux level. The evolution of the spectrum throughout the outburst is demonstrated. The UV and X-ray light curves follow very different paths, although changes occur in them around the same times, indicating a link between the bands. Flickering in the late-time X-ray data indicates the resumption of accretion. We show that if the white dwarf (WD) is magnetic, it would be among the most magnetic known; the lack of a periodic signal in our later data argues against a magnetic WD, however. We also discuss the possibility that V2491 Cyg is a recurrent nova, providing recurrence time-scale estimates.     

Benthic macrofauna and productivity regimes in the Barents Sea — Ecological implications in a changing Arctic

Benthic faunal assemblages were analysed from 47 stations in the central and southern parts of the Barents Sea, together with sedimentary and water column parameters, daily ice records and modelled integrated primary productivity. Sampling spanned areas influenced by Atlantic Water (AW) to those lying under Arctic Water (ArW), and included stations with mixed water masses. Ice cover suppressed water column productivity in the northern areas. Three main faunal groups were identified, based on similarity of numerical faunal composition. The northern and southern faunal groups were separated by the northernmost penetration of AW in the bottom water and the third group, the Hopen group, was influenced by modified bank water. Faunal abundances were significantly higher within the southern faunal group relative to the northern group, but the numbers of taxa present were similar. The particularly rich fauna of the Hopen group reflected sediment heterogeneity and tight pelagic–benthic coupling. These results suggest that a retreat and thinning of the ice cover in the Barents Sea likely will result in the northern parts of the Barents Sea becoming more Atlantic in character, with a higher productivity at the sea floor.     

Review on dating methods: Numerical dating in the quaternary geology of High Asia

Over the past few years, OSL and TCN datings of glacial material from High Asia have come into fashion. To this day, however, these techniques do not permit safe calibration. The intensity of the cosmic ray flux is being modulated by the solar and terrestrial magnetic fields and their secular fluctuations in the past. So far, these variations cannot be converted into the respective local TCN production rates for High Asia. We have reason to believe that the ages that are being calculated despite these uncertainties are generally overestimated. This assessment is supported by conventional radiocarbon dates and above all by the glacial chronology developed independently on the basis of the Quaternary geological method. The strongly emerging evidence for a much more extensive LGM glaciation of High Asia is, however, either being ignored or rejected by many authors, solely on the basis of the above-mentioned uncalibrated datings. This self-conceit based on the “dating fallacy”, as we call it, should be avoided since it goes decidedly against the standards of the scientific method established in Quaternary geology and makes a fundamental scientific discussion impossible.