Stochastic representation of dynamic model tendency : Formulation and preliminary results

Stochastic representation of forecast uncertainties has been taken into account to improve dynamical seasonal prediction. In this study, perturbing the dynamic tendency by a random number is introduced to account for inherent uncertainties associated with computational representations of the underlying partial differential equations that govern the atmospheric motion. Compared to the traditional approach to perturb the physical tendency, the sensitivity of fluctuations in forecast variables to the magnitude of random forcing is found to be greater in the case of perturbing the dynamical tendency. Realizing that the major advantage of stochastic tendency in traditional approaches lies in the increase in ensemble spread, our approach manifests a greater potential in the field of dynamical ensemble prediction. An evaluation of a simulated climate for a boreal summer demonstrates a significant enhancement in forecast skill in terms of the large-scale features and precipitation, when both the dynamical and physical tendencies are simultaneously perturbed. This finding implies that model uncertainties could be addressed in terms of not only the physical parameterization but also the dynamical portion that used to be regarded as deterministically solved.     

青蛤(Cyclina sinensis)TLR2基因的克隆与表达分析

利用转录组文库分析得到青蛤(Cyclina sinensis)的Toll样受体2(Toll-like receptor 2,TLR2)基因序列,采用荧光定量PCR法分析该基因的表达过程。结果显示,青蛤TLR2基因的cDNA开放阅读框为2082bp,编码693个氨基酸,具典型的LRRs、单次跨膜区和TIR结构域。该基因在血淋巴中的表达量最高,与肝脏、鳃、外套膜、闭壳肌和性腺有显著性差异(P0.05)。在鳗弧菌和Poly I:C刺激下,青蛤血淋巴中TLR2基因3h开始升高,48h达到最大值,与对照组和空白组有极显著性差异(P0.01);藤黄微球菌刺激下,血淋巴中CsTLR2基因3h开始升高,48h亦达到最大值,实验组与对照组有显著性差异(P0.05)。     

海岛礁光学和雷达影像基于改进非子采样小波变换的自动配准

Homologous feature point extraction is a key problem in the optical and synthetic aperture radar （SAR） image registration for islands. A new feature point extraction method using a threshold shrink operator and non-subsampled wavelet transform （TSO-NSWT） for optical and SAR image registration was proposed. Moreover, the matching for this proposed feature was different from the traditional feature matching strategies and was performed using a similarity measure computed from neighborhood circles in low-frequency bands. Then, a number of reliably matched couples with even distributions were obtained, which assured the accuracy of the registration. Application of the proposed algorithm to SPOT-5 （multi-spectral） and YG-1 （SAR） images showed that a large number of accurately matched couples could be identified. Additionally, both of the root mean square error （RMSE） patterns of the registration parameters computed based on the TSO-NSWT algorithm and traditional NSWT algorithm were analyzed and compared, which further demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm. The algorithm can supply the crucial step for island image registration and island recognition.     

基于阈值区间的海洋锋面提取模型

A model （Bayesian oceanic front detection, BOFD） of sea surface temperature （SST） front detection in satel- lite-derived SST images based on a threshold interval is presented, to be used in different applications such as climatic and environmental studies or fisheries. The model first computes the SST gradient by using a Sobel algorithm template. On the basis of the gradient value, the threshold interval is determined by a gradi- ent cumulative histogram. According to this threshold interval, front candidates can be acquired and prior probability and likelihood can be calculated. Whether or not the candidates are front points can be deter- mined by using the Bayesian decision theory. The model is evaluated on the Advanced Very High-Resolution Radiometer images of part of the Kuroshio front region. Results are compared with those obtained by using several SST front detection methods proposed in the literature. This comparison shows that the BOFD not only suppresses noise and small-scale fronts, but also retains continuous fronts.     

基于卫星高度计的北极海冰厚度变化研究

A modified algorithm taking into account the first year(FY) and multiyear(MY) ice densities is used to derive a sea ice thickness from freeboard measurements acquired by satellite altimetry ICESat(2003–2008). Estimates agree with various independent in situ measurements within 0.21 m. Both the fall and winter campaigns see a dramatic extent retreat of thicker MY ice that survives at least one summer melting season. There were strong seasonal and interannual variabilities with regard to the mean thickness. Seasonal increases of 0.53 m for FY the ice and 0.29 m for the MY ice between the autumn and the winter ICESat campaigns, roughly 4–5 month separation, were found. Interannually, the significant MY ice thickness declines over the consecutive four ICESat winter campaigns(2005–2008) leads to a pronounced thickness drop of 0.8 m in MY sea ice zones. No clear trend was identified from the averaged thickness of thinner, FY ice that emerges in autumn and winter and melts in summer. Uncertainty estimates for our calculated thickness, caused by the standard deviations of multiple input parameters including freeboard, ice density, snow density, snow depth, show large errors more than 0.5 m in thicker MY ice zones and relatively small standard deviations under 0.5 m elsewhere. Moreover, a sensitivity analysis is implemented to determine the separate impact on the thickness estimate in the dependence of an individual input variable as mentioned above. The results show systematic bias of the estimated ice thickness appears to be mainly caused by the variations of freeboard as well as the ice density whereas the snow density and depth brings about relatively insignificant errors.     

基于三维荧光光谱-平行因子技术联用的浮游藻化学分类学技术研究

An in vivo three-dimensional fluorescence method for the determination of algae community structure was developed by parallel factor analysis(PARAFAC) and CHEMTAX. The PARAFAC model was applied to fluorescence excitation-emission matrix(EEM) of 60 algae species belonging to five divisions and 11 fluorescent components were identified according to the residual sum of squares and specificity of the composition profiles of fluorescent. By the 11 fluorescent components, the algae species at different growth stages were classified correctly at the division level using Bayesian discriminant analysis(BDA). Then the reference fluorescent component ratio matrix was constructed for CHEMTAX, and the EEM–PARAFAC–CHEMTAX method was developed to differentiate algae taxonomic groups. The correct discrimination ratios(CDRs) when the fluorometric method was used for single-species samples were 100% at the division level, except for Bacillariophyta with a CDR of 95.6%. The CDRs for the mixtures were above 94.0% for the dominant algae species and above 87.0% for the subdominant algae species. However, the CDRs of the subdominant algae species were too low to be unreliable when the relative abundance estimated was less than 15.0%. The fluorometric method was tested using the samples from the Jiaozhou Bay and the mesocosm experiments in the Xiaomai Island Bay in August 2007. The discrimination results of the dominant algae groups agreed with microscopy cell counts, as well as the subdominant algae groups of which the estimated relative abundance was above 15.0%. This technique would be of great aid when low-cost and rapid analysis is needed for samples in a large batch. The fluorometric technique has the ability to correctly identify dominant species with proper abundance both in vivo and in situ.     

广西北仑河口红树林保护区表层海水溶解态重金属时空分布及其影响因素

根据2013年5月(春季)和8月(夏季)对广西北仑河口红树林保护区的现场调查监测数据,研究了表层海水中溶解态重金属Cu、Zn、Pb、Cd、Cr、As、Hg的时空分布特征,探讨了其影响因素,并对其污染水平进行了评价。结果表明,表层海水各溶解态重金属的浓度、空间波动程度在春、夏季均存在一定的差异;Hg的污染明显超过国家一类海水水质标准,且夏季污染水平高于春季。Cu-Zn、Cu-Cd、Zn-Pb、Zn-Cd之间存在显著正相关,春、夏季As以及夏季Cr分别与盐度之间呈显著正相关,其他重金属与盐度之间无显著相关性。各重金属的时空分布主要受到陆源输入、沿岸江河冲淡水和海水盐度变化等因素的影响。     

A high-resolution ocean-atmosphere coupled downscaling of the present climate over California

A fully coupled regional ocean-atmosphere model system that consists of the regional spectral model and the regional ocean modeling system for atmosphere and ocean components, respectively, is applied to downscale the present climate (1985–1994) over California from a global simulation of the Community Climate System Model 3.0 (CCSM3). The horizontal resolution of the regional coupled modeling system is 10 km, while that of the CCSM3 is at a spectral truncation of T85 (approximately 1.4°). The effects of the coupling along the California coast in the boreal summer and winter are highlighted. Evaluation of the sea surface temperature (SST) and 2-m air temperature climatology shows that alleviation of the warm bias along the California coast in the global model output is clear in the regional coupled model run. The 10-m wind is also improved by reducing the northwesterly winds along the coast. The higher resolution coupling effect on the temperature and specific humidity is the largest near the surface, while the significant impact on the wind magnitude appears at a height of approximately 850-hPa heights. The frequency of the Catalina Eddy and its duration are increased by more than 60 % in the coupled downscaling, which is attributed to enhanced offshore sea-breeze. Our study indicates that coupling is vital to regional climate downscaling of mesoscale phenomena over coastal areas.     

Assessment of future climate change over East Asia due to the RCP scenarios downscaled by GRIMs-RMP

This study assesses future climate change over East Asia using the Global/Regional Integrated Model system—Regional Model Program (RMP). The RMP is forced by two types of future climate scenarios produced by the Hadley Center Global Environmental Model version 2 (HG2); the representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios for the intergovernmental panel on climate change fifth assessment report (AR5). Analyses for the current (1980–2005) climate are performed to evaluate the RMP’s ability to reproduce precipitation and temperature. Two different future (2006–2050) simulations are compared with the current climatology to investigate the climatic change over East Asia centered in Korea. The RMP satisfactorily reproduces the observed seasonal mean and variation of precipitation and temperature. The spatial distribution of the simulated large-scale features and precipitation by the RMP is generally less reflective of current climatic conditions than that is given by the HG2, but their inter-annual variations in East Asia are better captured by the RMP. Furthermore, the RMP shows higher reproducibility of climate extremes including excessive heat wave and precipitation events over South Korea. In the future, strong warming is distinctly coupled with intensified monsoonal precipitation over East Asia. In particular, extreme weather conditions are increased and intensified over South Korea as follows: (1) The frequency of heat wave events with temperature greater than 30 °C is projected to increase by 131 and 111 % in the RCP 8.5 and 4.5 downscaling, relative to the current climate. (2) The RCP 8.5 downscaling shows the frequency and variability of heavy rainfall to increase by 24 and 31.5 %, respectively, while the statistics given by the RCP 4.5 downscaling are similar to those of the current climate.     

结合地形因子与分层策略的喀斯特地区无人机影像分类

西南喀斯特山区地形起伏较大,地物分布较为破碎,致使传统的光谱特征一次分类方法的精度较低。本文基于高分辨率无人机正射影像和地形指标,充分利用无人机遥感影像空间特征、光谱特征、纹理特征及地形特征,采取面向对象CART决策树算法与分层策略提取了研究区土地覆盖类型。研究表明,结合空间地形因子和分层策略的方法减少了破碎区地物间的相干扰,故具有较高的分类精度,总体分类精度达91.2%,Kappa系数为0.87,较传统一次分类精度提高了9.8%,Kappa系数提高了0.13。该方法对西南喀斯特地区土地覆盖解译精度较好,可为土地利用监测提供参考。