A Framework for Quantitative Assessment of Impacts Related to Energy and Mineral Resource Development

Natural resource planning at all scales demands methods for assessing the impacts of resource development and use, and in particular it requires standardized methods that yield robust and unbiased results. Building from existing probabilistic methods for assessing the volumes of energy and mineral resources, we provide an algorithm for consistent, reproducible, quantitative assessment of resource development impacts. The approach combines probabilistic input data with Monte Carlo statistical methods to determine probabilistic outputs that convey the uncertainties inherent in the data. For example, one can utilize our algorithm to combine data from a natural gas resource assessment with maps of sage grouse leks and piñon-juniper woodlands in the same area to estimate possible future habitat impacts due to possible future gas development. As another example: one could combine geochemical data and maps of lynx habitat with data from a mineral deposit assessment in the same area to determine possible future mining impacts on water resources and lynx habitat. The approach can be applied to a broad range of positive and negative resource development impacts, such as water quantity or quality, economic benefits, or air quality, limited only by the availability of necessary input data and quantified relationships among geologic resources, development alternatives, and impacts. The framework enables quantitative evaluation of the trade-offs inherent in resource management decision-making, including cumulative impacts, to address societal concerns and policy aspects of resource development.     

Magma batches in the Timber Mountain magmatic system, Southwestern Nevada Volcanic Field, Nevada, USA

The common occurrence of compositionally and mineralogically zoned ash flow sheets, such as those of the Timber Mountain Group, provides evidence that the source magma bodies were chemically and thermally zoned. The Rainier Mesa and Ammonia Tanks tuffs of the Timber Mountain Group are both large volume (1200 and 900 km³, respectively) chemically zoned (57–78 wt.% SiO₂) ash flow sheets. Evidence of distinct magma batches in the Timber Mountain system are based on: (1) major- and trace-element variations of whole pumice fragments; (2) major-element variations in phenocrysts; (3) major-element variations in glass matrix; and (4) emplacement temperatures calculated from Fe-Ti oxides and feldspars. There are three distinct groups of pumice fragments in the Rainier Mesa Tuff: a low-silica group and two high-silica groups (a low-Th and a high-Th group). These groups cannot be related by crystal fractionation. The low-silica portion of the Rainier Mesa Tuff is distinct from the low-silica portion of the overlying Ammonia Tanks Tuff, even though the age difference is less than 200,000 years. Three distinct groups occur in the Ammonia Tanks Tuff: a low-silica, intermediate-silica and a high-silica group. Part of the high-silica group may be due to mixing of the two high-silica Rainier Mesa groups. The intermediate-silica group may be due to mixing of the low- and high-silica Ammonia Tanks groups. Three distinct emplacement temperatures occur in the Rainier Mesa Tuff (869, 804, 723 °C) that correspond to the low-silica, high-Th and low-Th magma batches, respectively. These temperature differences could not have been maintained for any length of time in the magma chamber (cf. Turner, J.S., Campbell, I.H., 1986. Convection and mixing in magma chambers. Earth-Sci. Rev. 23, 255–352; Martin, D., Griffiths, R.W., Campbell, I.H., 1987. Compositional and thermal convection in magma chambers. Contrib. Mineral. Petrol. 96, 465–475) and therefore eruption must have occurred soon after emplacement of the magma batches into the chamber. Emplacement temperatures of the pumice fragments from the Ammonia Tanks Tuff show a continuous gradient of temperatures with composition. This continuous temperature gradient is consistent with the model of storage of magma batches in the Ammonia Tanks group that have undergone both thermal and chemical diffusion.     

The Hubble constant from galaxy lenses: impacts of triaxiality and model degeneracies

The Hubble constant can be constrained using the time delays between multiple images of gravitationally lensed sources. In some notable cases, typical lensing analyses assuming isothermal galaxy density profiles produce low values for the Hubble constant, inconsistent with the result of the HST Key Project  (72 ± 8 km s⁻¹ Mpc⁻¹)  . Possible systematics in the values of the Hubble constant derived from galaxy lensing systems can result from a number of factors, for example, neglect of environmental effects, assumption of isothermality, or contamination by line-of-sight structures. One additional potentially important factor is the triaxial structure of the lensing galaxy halo; most lens models account for halo shape simply by perturbing the projected spherical lensing potential, an approximation that is often necessary but that is inadequate at the levels of triaxiality predicted in the cold dark matter paradigm. To quantify the potential error introduced by this assumption in estimates of the Hubble parameter, we strongly lens a distant galaxy through a sample of triaxial softened isothermal haloes and use an Markov Chain Monte Carlo method to constrain the lensing halo profile and the Hubble parameter from the resulting multiple image systems. We explore the major degeneracies between the Hubble parameter and several parameters of the lensing model, finding that without a way to accurately break these degeneracies accurate estimates of the Hubble parameter are not possible. Crucially, we find that triaxiality does not significantly bias estimates of the Hubble constant, and offer an analytic explanation for this behaviour in the case of isothermal profiles. Neglected triaxial halo shape cannot contribute to the low Hubble constant values derived in a number of galaxy lens systems.     

Earthquakes in Switzerland and surrounding regions during 2010

This report of the Swiss Seismological Service summarizes the seismic activity in Switzerland and surrounding regions during 2010. During this period, 407 earthquakes and 85 quarry blasts were detected and located in the region under consideration. With a total of only 19 events with M_L ≥ 2.5, the seismic activity in the year 2010 was below the average over the previous 35 years. The two most noteworthy earthquakes were the M_L 3.4 Barrhorn event near Sankt Niklaus (VS) and the M_L 3.0 event of Feldkirch, both of which produced shaking of intensity IV.     

THE ROLE OF CARTOGRAPHIC COMMUNICATION IN PRESENT-DAY SOCIETY

A paper presented at a symposium on “Communication and Society” (Inter-university Center for Postgraduate Studies, University of Dubrovnik, May 13-24, 1985) explores means for extending the use and effectiveness of maps in everyday life. Primary emphasis is on improving overall cartographic communication and devising more effective methods for using maps to augment other communications media, especially newspapers and television. Submitted by the author to the Editor-in-Chief for publication.     

Development of a foraminifera-based transfer function in the Basque marshes, N. Spain: Implications for sea-level studies in the Bay of Biscay

In order to reconstruct former sea level we have developed a foraminifera-based transfer function using three models based on a modern dataset of 59 samples and 23 species obtained from four Basque marshes in Northern Spain. The relationship between observed and foraminifera-predicted elevation illustrated the strong performance of the transfer function (r²_jack ranges from 0.74 to 0.81). These results indicated that precise reconstructions of former sea levels are possible (error ranges from 0.11 to 0.19 m). The transfer function was used to calibrate the foraminiferal assemblages collected from a 50 cm salt marsh core. We placed the foraminifera-based reconstructions into a temporal framework using ¹³⁷Cs, Pb concentrations, and ²¹⁰Pb-derived sediment accumulation rates. The resulting relative sea-level curve is in good agreement with regional tide-gauge data. Both instrumental data and microfossil records suggest a rate of relative sea-level rise of approximately 2 mm yr^− 1 for the 20th century.     

Quantitative aspects of inorganic nutrient fluxes in the Gazi Bay (Kenya): implications for coastal ecosystems

Fluxes of dissolved inorganic nutrients: NH4+, NO2-, NO3-, PO4(3-) and Si(OH)4 from nearshore sediments of Gazi Bay were measured in situ within mangrove, seagrass and coral reef biotopes using benthic flux bell-jar chambers of cross-sectional area 0.066 m2 and volume 0.0132 m3. The objectives were: (1) to determine the influence of benthic fluxes, fluvial discharge and seasonal variations on the nutrient budget in the Bay waters; (2) to determine the effect of tidal and spatial variations on nutrient loads in the water column and (3) to establish the relative importance of the nutrient sources with regard to total community production of the Bay. The directly measured fluxes ranged from -270 to +148 micromol NH4+-N/m2/h; -60 to +63 micromol NO2(-)-N/m2/h; -79 to +41 micromol NO3(-)-N/m2/h; -79 to +75 micromol PO4(3-)-P/m2/h and +30 to +350 micromol Si(OH)4-Si/m2/h for and respectively. It was established that benthic fluxes are the major sources of dissolved inorganic NH4+, NO2- and Si(OH)4 while fluvial sources are important for NO3- and PO4(3-) into Gazi Bay waters. Seasonal variations had an appreciable effect on the PO4(3-) fluxes, N:Si ratio, river nutrient discharge, plankton productivity and important environmental factors such as salinity and temperature. Tidal and spatial variations had no significant effect on nutrient concentrations and net fluxes within the water column. The results imply that benthic fluxes are largely responsible for the nutrient dynamics of the nearshore coastal ecosystems especially where direct terrestrial inputs do not contribute significantly to the nutrient budget.     

Oxygen isotope biogeochemistry of pore water sulfate in the deep biosphere: Dominance of isotope exchange reactions with ambient water during microbial sulfate reduction (ODP Site 1130)

Microbially mediated sulfate reduction affects the isotopic composition of dissolved and solid sulfur species in marine sediments. Experiments and field data show that the composition is also modified in the presence of sulfate-reducing microorganisms. This has been attributed either to a kinetic isotope effect during the reduction of sulfate to sulfite, cell-internal exchange reactions between enzymatically-activated sulfate (APS), and/or sulfite with cytoplasmic water. The isotopic fingerprint of these processes may be further modified by the cell-external reoxidation of sulfide to elemental sulfur, and the subsequent disproportionation to sulfide and sulfate or by the oxidation of sulfite to sulfate. Here we report values from interstitial water samples of ODP Leg 182 (Site 1130) and provide the mathematical framework to describe the oxygen isotope fractionation of sulfate during microbial sulfate reduction. We show that a purely kinetic model is unable to explain our data, and that the data are well explained by a model using oxygen isotope exchange reactions. We propose that the oxygen isotope exchange occurs between APS and cytoplasmic water, and/or between sulfite and adenosine monophosphate (AMP) during APS formation. Model calculations show that cell external reoxidation of reduced sulfur species would require up to 3000 mol/m³ of an oxidant at ODP Site 1130, which is incompatible with the sediment geochemical data. In addition, we show that the volumetric fluxes required to explain the observed data are on average 14 times higher than the volumetric sulfate reduction rates (SRR) obtained from inverse modeling of the porewater data. The ratio between the gross sulfate flux into the microbes and the net sulfate flux through the microbes is depth invariant, and independent of sulfide concentrations. This suggests that both fluxes are controlled by cell density and that cell-specific sulfate reduction rates remain constant with depth.     

Granulite facies xenoliths from Prindle volcano, Alaska: Implications for the northern Cordilleran crustal lithosphere

Xenoliths collected from Prindle volcano, Alaska (Lat. 63.72°N; Long. 141.82°W) provide a unique opportunity to examine the lower crust of the northern Canadian Cordillera. The cone's pyroclastic deposits contain crustal and mantle-derived xenoliths. The crustal xenoliths include granulite facies metamorphic rocks and charnockites, comprising orthopyroxene (opx)–plagioclase (pl)–quartz (qtz) ± mesoperthite (msp) and clinopyroxene (cpx). Opx–cpx geothermometry yields equilibrium temperatures (T) from 770 to 1015 °C at 10 kbar. Pl–cpx–qtz geobarometry yields pressures (P) of  6.6–8.0 kbar. Integrated mesoperthite compositions suggest minimum temperatures of 1020–1140 °C at 10 kbar using solvus geothermometry. The absence of garnet in these rocks indicates a range of maximum pressure of 5–11.3 kbar, and calculated solidi constrain upper temperature limits. We conclude that the granulite facies assemblages represent relatively dry metamorphism at pressures indicative of crustal thicknesses similar to present day ( 36 km). Zircon separates from a single crustal xenolith yield mainly Early Tertiary (48–63 Ma) U–Pb ages which are considerably younger than the cooling ages of the high-pressure amphibolites exposed at the surface. The distribution of zircon ages is interpreted as indicating zircon growth coincident with at least two different thermal events as expressed at surface: (i) the eruption of the Late Cretaceous Carmacks Group volcanic rocks in western Yukon and adjacent parts of Alaska, and (ii) emplacement of strongly bimodal high level intrusions across much of western Yukon and eastern Alaska possibly in an extensional tectonic regime. The distributions of zircon growth ages and the preservation of higher-than-present-day (> 25 ± 3 °C km^− 1) geothermal gradients in the granulite facies rocks demonstrate the use of crustal xenoliths for recovering records of past, lithospheric-scale thermal–tectonic events.     

Runoff‐generating processes in hydromorphic soils on a plot scale: free gravity‐driven versus pressure‐controlled flow

Draining soil water is an important runoff generator. This study aims to describe runoff‐generating processes on a plot scale (1 m²) in hydromorphic soils with different initial soil water contents. We irrigated 16 hydromorphic soils in the northern Pre‐Alps in Switzerland and recorded the variations in water content with time domain reflectometry (TDR) at five different depths per plot. Sprinkling was repeated three times at approximately 23‐h intervals and lasted for 1 h with a volume flux density of 70 mm h^?1. The comparison between the measured water content of the drainages with two physically based models revealed which of the flow processes dominated during water recessions. We distinguished between vertical drainage, lateral outflow and infiltration without drainage. Approximately 45% of all recorded time series of soil water content did not drain within approximately 20 h after the end of irrigation, about 25% drained laterally and 10% of the outflow was vertical. The drainage of the remaining 20% was the result of both lateral and vertical water flow (≈12%), or was not interpretable with the approaches applied (≈8%). Vertical flow was only observed in layers without any or with just a few hydromorphic features. Lateral draining horizons had approximately half the storage capacity and amplitude of water recession of those with vertical flow. Vertical flow was only observed in the upper soil horizons. Thus, vertical flow transmitted water to layers with lateral outflow and did not delay runoff by deep percolation. Increasing initial soil moisture increased the percentage of water content recordings according to a lateral outflow slightly, while vertical flow was less frequent. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.