土壤地理学的进展与展望

作为土壤学和地理学学科的分支,土壤地理学是地球表层系统科学的重要组成部分,其核心研究内容是土壤的时空变化。土壤地理学研究对象从传统的土体向地球表层系统视角下的关键带转变,研究方法上全面走向数字化。本文综述了近20年来土壤地理学分支学科包括土壤发生、土壤形态、土壤分类、土壤调查与数字土壤制图等领域的研究进展,指出其发展趋势为：基础理论研究不断拓展、调查技术正经历变革、时空演变从过程观测走向模拟,同时探讨了土壤地理学的未来发展契机与面临的挑战。     

Understanding Agriculture Production and Food Security in Ethiopia from the Perspective of China

Food security and sustainable agricultural development are the hot issues of scientific research, especially after the population affected by hunger surprisingly increased in 2016. Long-lasting and recurrent famines caused by natural disasters and wars have afflicted Ethiopia. Unlike Ethiopia, which is still struggling to achieve food self-sufficiency, China managed to quickly become food self-sufficient at a rapid speed, despite the fact that it also faced the same challenges of famine over the last century. In the backdrop of differing environmental and socio-political challenges the two countries face, comparing the similarities and differences between the two countries will yield important lessons and insights for Ethiopia to follow to achieve food self-sufficiency. Here, the progress towards food security in Ethiopia and China is presented to quantitatively compare the gap of agricultural production between both countries. We found that food production in Ethiopia is heavily constrained by drought, soil degradation, climate change, out-dated agricultural production technologies, and poverty. According to these challenges, we examined corresponding responses in China to propose solutions for achieving food self-sufficiency in Ethiopia, given the realities of its unique national situation.     

Dynamic Changes of the Bush Encroachment in Low Altitude Area of Ethiopia

Bush encroachment is widely distributed in arid and semi-arid regions, and it has a serious impact on livestock production, especially in Africa where livestock is a primary source for the livelihoods of many people. In this study, methods of supervised classification and decision tree classification, and indexes of a land use change significance index (Ci) and a single land use dynamic degree, were applied to remote sensing imagery of Ethiopia for 1986-2016. The results show the dynamic characteristics of grassland bush encroachment in low altitude areas (pastures <1500 m above sea level) of Ethiopia in the 30 year period studied. The results revealed several interesting features of this phenomenon. (1) The area of bush encroachment showed an increasing trend, with a maximum of 3.74×10³ km² in 2003, which represented 68.97% of the total area, and declined slightly from 2003~2016. (2) Among classification types, the area of severe shrub grassland was the largest, accounting for 28.36-49.10% of the total area, while the area of moderate bush encroachment accounted for 9.77-16.68%, and slight bush encroachment accounted for 5.52-7.57%. (3) The expansion rate of shrubby grassland was 0.74% for the 30 year period, while the average annual expansion rate was 2.16% for the 8 years from 1995-2003. (4) Forest land and grassland were the two main land use types of shrub grassland transformation in low altitude areas and bush encroachment changed large amounts of forest land into grassland due to shrub grassland management. The results of this study provide basic data for revealing the impacts of development processes on subsequent bush encroachment and can inform better management for the sustainable development of grasslands in low altitude systems.     

Preface to Special Issue on Climate Science for Service Partnership China

正This special issue of Advances in Atmospheric Sciences provides a selection of research highlights from the Climate Science for Service Partnership China(CSSP China).This pioneering partnership between China and UK based researchers has broken new ground in the development of climate science for services.By accelerating and enhancing collaborative science,CSSP China has built a strong foundation for services to support climate and weather resilient economic development     

基于MODE对模式预报强风风场的检验分析

基于专业气象服务领域十分关注的模式强风预报性能的客观检验和致灾性强风预警服务效果的合理性判别问题,利用一次强风过程对电网专业气象预警服务效果的检验示范,探讨基于目标(面向对象)的诊断检验方法(Method for ObjectBased Diagnostic Evaluation,MODE)对强风事件检验的适用性。通过对强风空间检验的各个关键参数的选择确定、匹配分析,发现:(1)MODE检验的卷积半径、诊断量权重和匹配阈值等参数的选择,将影响检验目标的适度聚焦和误差表达的客观性,因此需要综合考虑预报和实况场的水平分辨率、用户对该类强天气预报误差的空间和时间冗余度等;(2)MODE检验可较好地量化给出模式预报的整体效果,包括:强风落区的范围大小和位置偏差、强风过程的时间相位差等,从而可量化判别出模式在各个时刻的空报和漏报区域以及对强风过程移动速度和生命周期长度的预报性能。     

2016年汛期中国降水极端特征及与1998年对比

本文利用国家气象信息中心提供的1961—2016年全国2341个气象观测站日和小时降水量资料,分析了2016年中国汛期降水的极端特征,并与1998年进行比较。主要结论如下：2016年汛期全国平均降水量为1961年以来历史同期最多,共有140站汛期降水量突破1961年以来历史同期极大值,有112站出现历史次极大值,比1998年分别偏多54和47站。1998年降水极值主要出现在东北和长江中上游地区,2016年主要出现在华东地区,而且范围更加集中。共出现6972站次暴雨,其中大暴雨1251站次,为1961年以来最多。44次大范围暴雨过程持续时间达90 d,总体呈现“中间强、前后弱”的特征。有417站出现日降水量极端事件,其中88站突破历史纪录,创1961年以来新高;最大小时降水量共有113站突破历史极值,比1998年偏多29站。从空间分布来看,日降水量极端事件2016年主要位于华东和华北地区,1998年集中在中部地区;破纪录小时降水2016年主要在西部地区,而1998年东部地区更为突出。     

云凝结核浓度对北京一次降水过程影响的数值模拟

利用WRF v3.6.1模式,采用Thompson云微物理参数化方案对北京奥运会期间的一次降水过程进行了模拟,通过3组数值试验对比分析了高、中、低云凝结核浓度对降水的影响。数值试验结果显示:(1)在云凝结核浓度较低的情况下,云凝结核浓度增加使24 h累积降水量增加,且增加的幅度相对较低;在云凝结浓度较高的情况下,云凝结核浓度增加使24 h累积降水量减少,且减少的幅度相对较高。(2)从地面雨强分布来看,不同的云凝结核浓度对暴雨、大雨、中雨、小雨的影响均体现在降水强度上,对降水位相的影响不显著。(3)云凝结核浓度的变化对低云量的影响与其对降水的影响相一致,故低云量是影响降水的一个重要因素。     

Assessing satellite-derived net surface radiative flux in the Arctic

卫星反演的地表辐射通量数据最近有了改善和扩展,但其在北极的数据准确性还没有很好地评估。本文作者对三套卫星反演的北极地表净辐射通量数据(卫星产品包括SRB,ISCCP和APP-x),与从北极不同地区采集的四个现场测量值进行了比较。比较结果表明:就整体偏差、均方根误差和相关性而言,ISCCP的净辐射通量比SRB和APP-x更接近现场观测;就偏差的日变化而言,三套卫星产品结果没有明显优劣;就偏差的年际变化而言,ISCCP的净辐射通量比SRB和APP-x更准确。     

定量测量降水量的回波结构自适应算法研究

为提高临近预报中对流性降水估测的准确性,分析了统计法估算降水的局限性。依据降水物理机制和降水回波结构,研究雷达反射率因子定量测量降水量(QPE-Qualitative Precipitation Estimate)的自适应算法,旨在减少由于雨滴谱变化导致的Z-I关系不稳定所引起的降水量测量误差。同时考虑组合反射率因子RC和垂直液态水含量VIL两个参量对降水的影响,建立适于城市区域的动态自适应的Z-I关系,改进对强降水严重低估的问题。     

空间功能视角下的公共服务对房价的影响——以成都市为例

房价的快速上涨和城市内部房价的巨大差异引起社会广泛关注,调控房价,防止局部区域房价过热势在必行。本文从城市空间功能的视角出发,以成都市2016年房价为例,基于地理探测器分析公共服务对房价的影响。结果表明：成都平均房价为8480元/m²,并从市中心沿交通环线和放射状干线同时向郊区递减,形成圈层加放射格局,总体上呈现西高东低、南高北低的特点。公共服务(主要包括医疗、金融和教育服务)对房价的影响以第三圈层和西南方最为显著,且高于城市层面上整体的影响。公共服务对房价的影响显著受不同区域的空间功能差异的影响,公共服务和空间功能差异会加剧房价的分异格局,并推动局部房价过热。因此,显著地受到在房价调控中,不仅要有传统的金融、经济政策,还要注重空间功能和公共服务的优化。