Tracking CO2 plume migration during geologic sequestration using a probabilistic history matching approach

Tracking the migration of the CO₂ plume is essential in order to better manage the operation of geologic sequestration of CO₂. However, the large cost of most monitoring technologies, such as time-lapse seismic, limits their application. We investigated the application of a probabilistic history matching methodology using routine measurements of injection data, which are affected by the presence of large-scale heterogeneities, as an inexpensive alternative to track the migration of CO₂ plume in an aquifer. The approach is demonstrated first through a synthetic example in which the ability to detect the presence of flow barriers was tested. In a second example, we applied our method to the In Salah field, one of the largest geological sequestration projects in the world, where the main direction of high permeability features was inferred. The accuracy and reproducibility of the results show that our approach for assisted history matching is an economic and viable option for plume monitoring during geologic CO₂ sequestration.     

Assimilation of Indian Doppler Weather Radar observations for simulation of mesoscale features of a land-falling cyclone

In this paper, impact of Indian Doppler Weather Radar (DWR) data, i.e., reflectivity (Z), radial velocity (Vr) data individually and in combination has been examined for simulation of mesoscale features of a land-falling cyclone with Advance Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Model at 9-km horizontal resolution. The radial velocity and reflectivity observations from DWR station, Chennai (lat. 13.0°N and long. 80.0°E), are assimilated using the ARPS Data Assimilation System (ADAS) and cloud analysis scheme of the model. The case selected for this study is the Bay of Bengal tropical cyclone NISHA of 27–28 November 2008. The study shows that the ARPS model with the assimilation of radial wind and reflectivity observations of DWR, Chennai, could simulate mesoscale characteristics, such as number of cells, spiral rain band structure, location of the center and strengthening of the lower tropospheric winds associated with the land-falling cyclone NISHA. The evolution of 850 hPa wind field super-imposed vorticity reveals that the forecast is improved in terms of the magnitude and direction of lower tropospheric wind, time, and location of cyclone in the experiment when both radial wind and reflectivity observations are used. With the assimilation of both radial wind and reflectivity observations, model could reproduce the rainfall pattern in a more realistic way. The results of this study are found to be very promising toward improving the short-range mesoscale forecasts.     

Cold subduction of the Neotethys: the metamorphic record from finely banded lawsonite and epidote blueschists and associated metabasalts of the Nagaland Ophiolite Complex,India

In this study, we have deduced the thermal history of the subducting Neotethys from its eastern margin, using a suite of partially hydrated metabasalts from a segment of the Nagaland Ophiolite Complex (NOC), India. Located along the eastern extension of the Indus‐Tsangpo suture zone (ITSZ), the N–S‐trending NOC lies between the Indian and Burmese plates. The metabasalts, encased within a serpentinitic mélange, preserve a tectonically disturbed metamorphic sequence, which from west to east is greenschist (GS), pumpellyite–diopside (PD) and blueschist (BS) facies. Metabasalts in all the three metamorphic facies record prograde metamorphic overprints directly on primary igneous textures and igneous augite. In the BS facies unit, the metabasalts interbedded with marble show centimetre‐ to metre‐scale interlayering of lawsonite blueschist (LBS) and epidote blueschist (EBS). Prograde HP/LT metamorphism stabilized lawsonite + omphacite (X_Jd = 0.50–0.56 to 0.26–0.37) + jadeite (X_Jd = 0.67–0.79) + augite + ferroglaucophane + high‐Si phengite (Si = 3.6–3.65 atoms per formula unit, a.p.f.u.) + chlorite + titanite + quartz in LBS and lawsonite + glaucophane/ferroglaucophane ± epidote ± omphacite (X_Jd = 0.34) + chlorite + phengite (Si = 3.5 a.p.f.u.) + titanite + quartz in EBS at the metamorphic peak. Retrograde alteration, which was pervasive in the EBS, produced a sequence of mineral assemblages from omphacite and lawsonite‐absent, epidote + glaucophane/ferroglaucophane + chlorite + phengite + titanite + quartz through albite + chlorite + glaucophane to lawsonite + albite + high‐Si phengite (Si = 3.6–3.7 a.p.f.u.) + glaucophane + epidote + quartz. In the PD facies metabasalts, the peak mineral assemblage, pumpellyite + chlorite + titanite + phengitic white mica (Si = 3.4–3.5 a.p.f.u.) + diopside appeared in the basaltic groundmass from reacting titaniferous augite and low‐Si phengite, with prehnite additionally producing pumpellyite in early vein domains. In the GS facies metabasalts, incomplete hydration of augite produced albite + epidote + actinolite + chlorite + titanite + phengite + augite mineral assemblage. Based on calculated T–M(H₂O), T–M(O₂) (where M represents oxide mol.%) and P–T pseudosections, peak P–T conditions of LBS are estimated at ~11.5 kbar and ~340 °C, EBS at ~10 kbar, 325 °C and PD facies at ~6 kbar, 335 °C. Reconstructed metamorphic reaction pathways integrated with the results of P–T pseudosection modelling define a near‐complete, hairpin, clockwise P–T loop for the BS and a prograde P–T path with a steep dP/dT for the PD facies rocks. Apparent low thermal gradient of 8 °C km^?1 corresponding to a maximum burial depth of 40 km and the hairpin P–T trajectory together suggest a cold and mature stage of an intra‐oceanic subduction zone setting for the Nagaland blueschists. The metamorphic constraints established above when combined with petrological findings from the ophiolitic massifs along the whole ITSZ suggest that intra‐oceanic subduction systems within the Neotethys between India and the Lhasa terrane/the Karakoram microcontinent were also active towards east between Indian and Burmese plates.     

Contrasting Episodes of Regional Granulite-Facies Metamorphism in Enclaves and Host Gneisses from the Aravalli Delhi Mobile Belt, NW India

The Aravalli–Delhi Mobile Belt in the northwestern partof India demonstrates how granulite enclaves and their hostgneisses can be utilized to unravel multistage metamorphic historiesof orogenic belts, using three suites of metamorphic rocks:(1) an enclave of pelitic migmatite gneiss–leptynite gneiss;(2) metamorphosed megacrystic granitoids, intrusive into theenclave; (3) host tonalite–trondhjemite–granodiorite(TTG) gneisses associated with an interlayered sequence of garnetiferousmetabasite and psammo-pelitic schist, locally migmatitic. Basedon integrated structural, petrographic, mineral compositional,geothermobarometric studies and P–T pseudosection modellingin the systems NCKFMASH and NCFMASH, we record three distincttectonothermal events: an older, medium-pressure granulite-faciesmetamorphic event (M₁) in the sillimanite stability field, whichis registered only in the enclave, a younger, kyanite-gradehigh-pressure granulite-facies event (M₂), common to all thethree litho-associations, and a terminal amphibolite-faciesmetamorphic overprint (M₃). The high-P granulite facies eventhas a clockwise P–T loop with a well-constrained prograde,peak (M₂, P 12–15 kbar, T 815°C) and retrograde (M_2R,6·1 kbar, T 625°C) metamorphic history. M₃ is recordedparticularly in late shear zones. When collated with availablegeochronological data, the metamorphic P–T conditionsprovide the first constraint of crustal thickening in this belt,leading to the amalgamation of two crustal blocks during a collisionalorogeny of possible Early Mesoproterozoic age. M₃ reactivationis inferred to be of Grenvillian age. KEY WORDS: Northwestern India; polycyclic granulite enclave; pseudosection; high-pressure metamorphism; P–T path     

Doppler weather radar based nowcasting of cyclone Ogni

In this paper, we describe offline analysis of Indian Doppler Weather Radar (DWR) data from cyclone Ogni using a suite of radar algorithms as implemented on NEXRAD and the advanced algorithms developed jointly by the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) and the University of Oklahoma. We demonstrate the applicability of the various algorithms to Indian radar data, the improvement in the quality control and evaluate the benefit of nowcasting capabilities in Indian conditions. New information about the tropical cyclone structure, as derived from application of the algorithms is also discussed in this study.     

Thermal history of a Late Mesoproterozoic paired metamorphic belt (?) during Rodinia assembly: New insight from medium-pressure granulites from the Aravalli-Delhi Mobile Belt,Northwestern India

In this study, we investigate the possible record of a Late Mesoproterozoic paired metamorphic belt in the Aravalli-Delhi Mobile Belt(ADMB), NW India using a suite of supracrustal and metaigneous granulites from the Pilwa-Chinwali granulite terrain at the north-western margin of the ADMB. Using metamorphic reaction textures, mineral chemistry, metamorphic reaction history, geothermobarometric computations and electron microprobe dating of monazite in 5 samples of pelitic granulite, leptynite gneiss, enderbite and charnockite, we have deduced a medium-pressure granulite facies metamorphism(P between 4.9 and 6.8 kbar, T 760-815℃) along a heating-cooling, counterclockwise P-T path between 1.09 and 1.01 Ga. When collated with published metamorphic and chronological constraints and geological settings of the adjoining crustal domains of the ADMB, these findings provide new insights into the developments of two tectonic domains of contrasting thermal gradients at ca. 1.0 Ga, consistent with metamorphic transformations in tectonically thickened middle-lower crustal sections during continental collision to continental subduction and in the root zones of spatially adjacent island arc, as part of the Rodinia supercontinent assembly event.     

Potential vorticity diagnosis of rapid intensification of very severe cyclone GIRI (2010) over the Bay of Bengal

The life cycle of Bay of Bengal cyclone GIRI, characterized by a rapid intensification during 36-h interval, is investigated. The cyclone under study underwent a period of explosive cyclogenesis from 0000 UTC 21 October to 1200 UTC 22 October 2010. During this period, the sea level pressure minimum at the center of cyclone dropped by 52 hPa. European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model data is used to perform the analysis of Q-vectors, K-Index and potential vorticity (PV) perturbation in order to diagnose the life cycle of this unusual cyclone. The analysis reveals that during the period of explosive development, the 500–700 hPa column-averaged Q-vector convergence (regions of quasi-geostrophic forcing for ascent) directly above the surface cyclone had strengthened, which in turn affected the lower to middle-tropospheric ascent and associated surface cyclogenesis. The analysis also reveals that the presence of lower-tropospheric cyclogenetic forcing in the environment, characterized by reduced static stability as measured by very high values of the K-Index produced a burst of heavy precipitation during the development stage of the cyclone. The associated latent heat release produced a substantial diabatic positive PV anomaly in the middle and lower troposphere that caused lower-tropospheric height falls associated with the explosive cyclogenesis. Thus, diabatic consequence of the latent heat release fueled the explosive development of the cyclone. The intensification mechanism of the cyclone occurred in two stages. A diabatically generated lower-tropospheric positive PV anomaly dominated the rapid intensification stage after initial triggering by a positive upper-level PV anomaly. A limited verification of ECMWF model shows that the model could predict the rapid intensification of the cyclone to a large extent and landfall near observed landfall point and time. It predicted lowest central pressure of 970.5 hPa 24-h in advance with landfall near 19.7°N and 93.7°E around 1400 UTC 22 October 2010 against the lowest estimated central pressure of 950 hPa and observed landfall near 20.0°N and 93.5°E around 1400 UTC 22 October 2010.     

Analysis of cyclogenesis parameter for developing and nondeveloping low-pressure systems over the Indian Sea

A cyclone genesis parameter, termed the genesis potential parameter (GPP), for the Indian Sea is proposed. The parameter is defined as the product of four variables, namely vorticity at 850 hPa, middle tropospheric relative humidity, middle tropospheric instability, and the inverse of vertical wind shear. The variables are calculated using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), USA, reanalysis data, averaged within a circle of 2.5° radius around the centre of cyclonic system. The parameter is tested with a sample dataset of 35 nondeveloping and developing low-pressure systems that formed over the Indian Sea during the period 1995–2005. The result shows that there is a distinction between GPP values for nondeveloping and developing systems in more than 85% cases. The composite GPP value is found to be around three to five times greater for developing systems than for nondeveloping systems. The analysis of the parameter at early development stage of a cyclonic storm appears to provide a useful predictive signal for intensification of the system.