Syn‐rift mass flow generated ‘tectonofacies’ and ‘tectonosequences’ of the Kingston Peak Formation,Death Valley,California, and their bearing on supposed Neoproterozoic panglacial climates

The Kingston Peak Formation of the Pahrump Group in the Death Valley region of the Basin and Range Province, USA, is the thick (over 3 km) mixed siliciclastic–carbonate fill of a long‐lived structurally‐complex Neoproterozoic rift basin and is recognized by some as a key ‘climatostratigraphic’ succession recording panglacial Snowball Earth events. A facies analysis of the Kingston Peak Formation shows it to be largely composed of ‘tectonofacies’ which are subaqueous mass flow deposits recording cannibalization of older Pahrump carbonate strata exposed by local faulting. Facies include siltstone, sandstone and conglomerate turbidites, carbonate megabreccias (olistoliths) and related breccias, and interbedded debrites. Secondary facies are thin carbonates and pillowed basalts. Four distinct associations of tectonofacies (‘base‐of‐scarp’; FA1, ‘mid‐slope’; FA2, ‘base‐of‐slope’; FA3, and a ‘carbonate margin’ association; FA4) reflect the initiation and progradation of deep water clastic wedges at the foot of fault scarps. ‘Tectonosequences’ record episodes of fault reactivation resulting in substantial increases in accommodation space and water depths, the collapse of fault scarps and consequent downslope mass flow events. Carbonates of FA4 record the cessation of tectonic activity and resulting sediment starvation ending the growth of clastic wedges. Tectonosequences are nested within regionally‐extensive tectono‐stratigraphic units of earlier workers that are hundreds to thousands of metres in thickness, recording the long‐term evolution of the rifted Laurentian continental margin during the protracted breakup of Rodinia. Debrite facies of the Kingston Peak Formation are classically described as ice‐contact glacial deposits recording globally‐correlative panglacials but they result from partial to complete subaqueous mixing of fault‐generated coarse‐grained debris and fine‐grained distal sediment on a slope conditioned by tectonic activity. The sedimentology (tectonofacies) and stratigraphy (tectonosequences) of the Kingston Peak Formation reflect a fundamental control on local sedimentation in the basin by faulting and likely earthquake activity, not by any global glacial climate.     

Improvements in storm surge surrogate modeling for synthetic storm parameterization,node condition classification and implementation to small size databases

Surrogate models are becoming increasingly popular for storm surge predictions. Using existing databases of storm simulations, developed typically during regional flood studies, these models provide fast-to-compute, data-driven approximations quantifying the expected storm surge for any new storm (not included in the training database). This paper considers the development of such a surrogate model for Delaware Bay, using a database of 156 simulations driven by synthetic tropical cyclones and offering predictions for a grid that includes close to 300,000 computational nodes within the geographical domain of interest. Kriging (Gaussian Process regression) is adopted as the surrogate modeling technique, and various relevant advancements are established. The appropriate parameterization of the synthetic storm database is examined. For this, instead of the storm features at landfall, the features when the storm is at closest distance to some representative point of the domain of interest are investigated as an alternative parametrization, and are found to produce a better surrogate. For nodes that remained dry for some of the database storms, imputation of the surge using a weighted k nearest neighbor (kNN) interpolation is considered to fill in the missing data. The use of a secondary, classification surrogate model, combining logistic principal component analysis and Kriging, is examined to address instances for which the imputed surge leads to misclassification of the node condition. Finally, concerns related to overfitting for the surrogate model are discussed, stemming from the small size of the available database. These concerns extend to both the calibration of the surrogate model hyper-parameters, as well as to the validation approaches adopted. During this process, the benefits from the use of principal component analysis as a dimensionality reduction technique, and the appropriate transformation and scaling of the surge output are examined in detail.

     

Hybrid three-scale model for evolving pore-scale geometries

We consider flow and upscaling of flow properties from pore scale to Darcy scale, when the pore-scale geometry is changing. The idea is to avoid having to solve for the pore evolution at the pore scale, because this results in unmanageable complexity. We propose to use stochastic modeling to parametrize plausible modifications of the pore geometry and to construct distributions of permeability parametrized by Darcy-scale variables. To localize the effects of, e.g., clogging, we introduce an intermediate scale of pore-network models. We use local Stokes solvers to calibrate the throat permeability.     

Cloud fraction at the ARM SGP site

The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program Southern Great Plains (SGP) site has a rich history of actively sensed cloud observations. Fourteen years (1997–2010) of observations from the Millimeter Cloud Radar (MMCR), Micropulse Lidar (MPL), and Belfort/Vaisala Ceilometers are used to understand how instrument selection and sampling impacts estimates of Cloud Fraction (CF) at this location. Although all instruments should be used in combination for the best estimates of CF, instrument downtime limits available samples and increases observational errors, demanding that users make sacrifices when calculating CF at longer intervals relevant to climate studies. Selection of MMCR or MMCR + MPL cloud masks changes very little in the overall understanding of total CF. Addition of the MPL increases the 14-year average CF by 9 %, mainly through an increase in optically thin high clouds year-round, and mid-level clouds during the summer months. Splitting the period into two equal 7-year periods reveals negligible change in MMCR + MPL CF. For the MMCR, however, CF deceases by 6.1 %. This sudden change in CF occurs around the time the radar was upgraded, suggesting that this decrease is tied to hardware sensitivity or scanning strategy changes. Users must be cognizant of this and other issues when calculating CF from the variety of observations available at the ARM SGP site.     

Response of base‐isolated nuclear structures for design and beyond‐design basis earthquake shaking

The American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) 43‐05 presents two performance objectives for the design of nuclear structures, systems and components in nuclear facilities: (1) 1% probability of unacceptable performance for 100% design basis earthquake (DBE) shaking and (2) 10% probability of unacceptable performance for 150% DBE shaking. To aid in the revision of the ASCE 4‐98 procedures for the analysis and design of base‐isolated nuclear power plants and meet the intent of ASCE 43‐05, a series of nonlinear response‐history analyses was performed to study the impact of the variability in both earthquake ground motion and mechanical properties of isolation systems on the seismic responses of base‐isolated nuclear power plants. Computations were performed for three representative sites (rock and soil sites in the Central and Eastern United States and a rock site in the Western United States) and three types of isolators (lead rubber, Friction Pendulum and low‐damping rubber bearings) using realistic mechanical properties for the isolators. Estimates were made of (1) the ratio of the 99th percentile (90th percentile) response of isolation systems computed using a distribution of spectral demands and distributions of isolator mechanical properties to the median response of isolation systems computed using best‐estimate properties and 100% (150%) spectrum‐compatible DBE ground motions; (2) the number of sets of three‐component ground motions to be used for response‐history analysis to develop a reliable estimate of the median response of isolation systems. The results of this study provide the technical basis for the revision of ASCE Standard 4‐98. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Exploring the geophysical and socio-economic determinants of land cover changes in Eastern Mau forest reserve and Lake Nakuru drainage basin,Kenya

Understanding the linkages between the biogeophysical and socio-economic processes that operate at different spatial and temporal scales is important for land cover change mitigation. This study analysed several factors that explained the forest-shrubland conversions, grassland conversions and cropland expansions in Lake Nakuru drainage basin and Eastern Mau forest reserve in Kenya from 1985 to 2011. Logistic regression models were developed using a combination of remote sensing-based land cover data, and geographical information systems-based geophysical and socio-economic data (i.e., temperature, rainfall, elevation, slope, aspect, topographic wetness, curvature, soil pH, soil cation exchange capacity (CEC), population density and distance to road, river and town). The results were varied; for example, in the period 1985–2000, forest-shrubland conversions were linked to distance to road), distance to town, soil pH, soil CEC, rainfall, topographic wetness, curvature and aspect. The same factors, in addition to slope and distance to river, also determined the likelihood of forest-shrubland conversions in the period 2000–2011. Overall, significance of the determining factors varied depending on time and nature of land cover change. For example, topographical factors influenced grassland conversions in the period 1985–2000, while soil-related factors did not. But in the period 2000–2011, the converse was true. Therefore, policies for restoration, conservation and sustainable management of critical ecosystems (e.g., forests) should be spatially targeted and time-specific. These results broaden our knowledge of land cover dynamics in this locality, and provide a base for effective environmental policy formulation, planning and management.     

Retention of uranium in complexly altered zircon: An example from Bancroft,Ontario

Mesoproterozoic (~ 1050 Ma; Stenian) zircon crystals from the Saranac Prospect, Bancroft, Ontario, contain up to ~ 1 wt.% U and ~ 0.15 wt.% Th and, correspondingly, they are for the most part extensively radiation-damaged (calculated total α-doses 2.3?35.3 × 10¹⁸/g). The crystals show textures of complex, intense chemical alteration that is attributed to multiple, low-T replacement events along fluid-controlled reaction fronts. Centers of crystals appear totally replaced; the primary zoning is virtually erased and the material has high porosity and numerous inclusions. Interior regions surrounding the central reworked areas still exhibit primary igneous-type zoning; in those regions the alteration emanates from fractures and then follows the more radiation-damaged growth zones. Altered areas are typically recognized by their high porosity, low BSE intensity, and deficient analytical totals. Those regions often have lost a significant fraction of their radiogenic Pb. They are in general somewhat depleted in Zr, Si, and U, and are notably enriched in Ca and Fe. Element maps reveal elevated concentrations of Al and Y within filled fractures. Our observations indicate that the fluid-driven ion exchange is mainly controlled by the accessibility of micro-areas with elevated levels of radiation damage to transporting fluids via “fast pathways”. Most importantly, there is apparent Zr?Si?U equilibrium between initially existing and newly formed zircon. The retention of U after the chemical replacement (94 ± 14% relative to the original U content in the respective zones) does not significantly fall below the retention of two major cations Zr (95 ± 4%) and Si (95 ± 2%). In spite of the partially extreme hydrothermal alteration overprinting, the original U zoning in the crystals is well preserved. These observations suggest that preferential chemical leaching of U from zircon is clearly not a general feature of this mineral. This in turn seems to question the general validity of hydrothermal experiments to low-T, fluid-driven alteration of zircon in geological environments. The observed apparent immobility of U may affect the interpretation of U?Pb discordance in zircon, and the performance assessment of this mineral as potential waste form for actinides.     

Development of a palaeotsunami database for New Zealand

A New Zealand palaeotsunami database has been developed. The philosophy has been to include as much tsunami-related data as possible. Most of the events recorded are true palaeotsunamis that occurred prior to the historical record or have no written observations. Some are hybrids that are in some manner poorly recorded historical events. Data include physical evidence from geological, archaeological and geomorphological sources and cultural information from anthropological research and prehistorical Māori oral recordings. Each line of data represents a summary of one piece of evidence containing key details listed under a series of headings. The estimated veracity of each line item is based upon the sum of the information contained in the linked reference(s). The palaeotsunami database contains approximately 300 line items and describes between 35 and 40 palaeotsunamis. This wealth of data helps to improve our understanding of tsunami sources, event its magnitude and frequency.