探讨雷电监测定位数据在人工影响天气中的应用

由于地理位置的原因,一些台站收不到雷达资料,在进行人工影响天气作业时对天气系统的判断存在一定盲目性,与天气雷达比较,雷电定位系统具有覆盖范围大、维持费用低及可连续长时间运行的优点。如果能有效地利用雷电监测数据对人工影响天气作业进行指导,将提高人工影响天气的作业效果。     

雷达产品算法及其在预报中的应用

本文主要介绍雷达产品的基本算法,包括风暴单体识别与跟踪算法、冰雹指数算法、风廓线算法以及降水算法,同时指出了根据这些算法得到的产品在天气预报中的应用。     

河南夏季高温日数的时空分布特征及500 hPa环流型

对河南省40个代表站1961-2005年夏季≥35℃高温日数进行经验正交函数(EOF)展开分析,结果显示,前3个典型场基本能反映河南夏季高温日数分布的主要特征,前3个模态的累积方差贡献率达85%.据此,得出河南夏季≥35℃高温日数的时空分布类型为全省一致型、西北至东南差异型和西南至东北差异型.第一模态对应的时间系数序列的变化幅度最大,第二模态对应的时间系数序列的变化幅度比前一个时间序列要小.第一模态的时间系数演变显示,河南夏季高温日数平均呈减少趋势,且存在2～4 a、8～14 a的周期变化,目前河南夏季高温日数正处于偏多状态中.应用逐日20时500 hPa ECMWF北半球格点资料,对1991-2005年河南典型的大面积持续高温下的环流形势进行普查、分类,分别求各种类型下的环流平均场,从而得到河南省高温的两种环流型,即贝加尔湖高压型和副热带高压型.     

洛阳市城市环境气象监测预报服务研究

利用洛阳市环境监测资料和气象资料,分析了洛阳市污染物浓度的日变化、季节变化、年际变化规律,并分析了污染物浓度与气象因子的关系.在此基础上,通过回归分析预报方法、污染潜势预报方法、CAPPS模式预报方法对洛阳市3种主要污染物的浓度和级别进行了24 h和48 h预测,并建立了气象局与环保部门共享的气象和污染数据库平台,为双方今后的合作奠定了基础.     

边界层特征量在河南省沙尘天气短期预报中的应用

介绍了利用边界层特征量——摩擦速度和梯度Richardson数制作河南省沙尘天气短期预报的方法.结果表明,该动力学方法更能够从本质上反映沙尘天气产生的机制,定性预报准确率为62.5%.     

地震活动性总体参量Rt在东南沿海地震带西段地震预测中的应用

分析了1974年以来东南沿海地震带西段发生的MS≥4.9级地震前地震活动性总体状态参量Rt的变化特点,同时对Rt值在东南沿海地震带西段的地震预测效能进行了检验评估。结果表明,当Rt>0.82时,表明东南沿海地震带西段地震活动状态比较正常,发生4.9级以上地震的概率较低;反之,当Rt≤0.82时,则表明东南沿海地震带西段地震活动比较活跃,发生4.9级以上地震的概率较大。     

河流相沉积的河型转换特征与控制因素及其油气地质意义 ——以南苏丹Melut盆地Ruman地区坳陷期Jimidi组为例

河流相砂体是陆相含油气盆地的重要储层类型,其河型的时空转换不仅是研究盆地演化的直接证据,更是精准评价与预测油气储层的核心内容,已成为近年来国内外沉积研究的热点之一.以Melut盆地Ruman地区坳陷期Jimidi组为例,通过开展层序划分、岩相类型与岩相组合分析、高分辨率储层反演、以及砂体平面展布分析,结果表明:1)坳陷...     

Polar stratospheric clouds from satellite observational data

The spectral aerosol-extinction coefficients (SAECs) obtained from SAGE III measurements are used to study the physical and integral microphysical characteristics of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs). Different criteria for PSC identification from SAEC measurements are considered and analyzed based on model and field measurements. An intercomparison of them is performed, and the agreement and difference of the results obtained with the use of different criteria are shown. A new criterion is proposed for PSC identification, which is based on the estimate of how close the measured vector of the spectral attenuation coefficient is to a model distribution of the PSC ensemble. On the basis of different criteria, cases of PSCs are isolated from all SAGE III observations (over 30000). All selection criteria lead to a qualitatively and quantitatively similar space-time distribution of the regions of PSC localization. The PSCs observed in the region accessible to SAGE III measurements are localized in the latitudinal zones 65°–80° in the Northern Hemisphere and 45°–60° in the Southern Hemisphere during the winter-spring period. In the Northern Hemisphere, PSCs are observed within the longitudinal zone 120° W–100° E with the maximum frequency of PSC observation in the vicinity of the Greenwich meridian. In the Southern Hemisphere, the region of PSC observation is almost the same in longitude but with a certain shift in the maximum frequency of PSC observation to the west. This maximum is observed in the vicinity of 40°W, and the region of usual PSC observation is the neighborhood of 60° of the maximum’s longitude. The physical parameters of PSCs are estimated: the mean heights of the lower and upper boundaries of PSCs are 19.5 and 21.9 km, respectively, and the mean cloud temperature is 191.8 K. The integral microphysical parameters of PSCs are estimated: the total surface of NAT particles S _NAT = 0.41 μm²/cm³; the total volume of NAT particles V _NAT = 1.1 μm³/cm³; and, for all aerosol and cloud particles together, S is 2.9 ± 1.5 at a standard deviation of 2.7 μm²/cm³ and V is 2.8 ± 1.5 at a standard deviation of 4.2 μm³/cm³. A high frequency of PSC occurrence and high values of S and V in PSCs both for all particles and for NAT particles have been noted in January–February 2005 as compared to the rest of the period of SAGE III measurements for 2002–2005.     

Negative correlations of variations in near-water wind and surface wind waves

The relationship between the intensity of surface wind waves and near-water wind is analyzed. The data of measuring wind waves and near-water wind under natural conditions in the Black Sea (July 2004) and Norwegian Sea (June 2003, 16th cruise of the R/V Akademik Sergei Vavilov) are used. A phenomenon of negative correlations has been found between the intensity of wind waves and near-water wind in regions of substantial restructuring of wind waves in the field of inhomogeneous flows: wind-wave amplification during wind decay and vice versa. Examples of such observations are presented, a theoretical model is constructed for the observed phenomenon, and a good agreement is obtained between theory and experiment.     

Variations in the concentration of mesospheric ozone during the total solar eclipse of March 29, 2006, from microwave radiometric data

We present the results of microwave observations of the ozone content variability in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere during a total solar eclipse of March 29, 2006 at the Kislovodsk high-altitude scientific station. An increase in the concentration of mesospheric ozone was recorded during the eclipse. At a height of 60 km, the ozone concentration increased by 40%, which is close to the value of diurnal ozone variations.