Agricultural Land Use Effects on Climate over China as Simulated by a Regional Climate Model

The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3) is used to investigate the climate effects of land use change related to agriculture over China. The model is driven by the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecast 40-yr Re-Analysis (ERA40)data. Two sets of experiments for 15 yr (1987-2001) are conducted, one with the potential vegetation cover and the other the agricultural land use (AG). The results show that the AG effects on temperature are weak over northern China while in southern China a significant cooling is found in both winter (December-January-February) and summer (June-July-August). The mean cooling in the sub-regions of South China (SC) in winter and the sub-regions of Southeast (SE) China in summer are found to be the greatest,up to 0.5℃ and 0.8℃, respectively. In general, the change of AG leads to a decrease of annual mean temperature by 0.5-1℃ in southern China. Slight change of precipitation in western China and a decrease of precipitation in eastern China are simulated in winter, with the maximum reduction reaching -7.5% over SE. A general decrease of precipitation over northern China and an increase over southern China are simulated in summer,in particular over SE where the increase of precipitation can be up to 7.3%. The AG effects on temperature and precipitation show strong interannual variability. Comparison of the climate effects between AG and the present-day land use (LU) is also performed. In southern China, the ratio of temperature (precipitation)changes caused by AG and LU is greater than (closer to) the ratio of the number of grid cells with changed vegetation cover due to AG and LU variations.     

气象防灾减灾科普栏目《风云纪录》的设计与实现

自然灾害公众教育可以提高全社会的灾害意识和忧患意识,增加公众的灾害知识,提高面对灾害的自救和互救能力,从而减少灾害的损失。为充分发挥电视在普及气象防灾减灾知识中的作用,依托已经发生或者新近发生的灾害事件,在纪实拍摄的基础上,充分利用数字媒体技术,设计了气象防灾减灾科普栏目《风云纪录》。节目采用故事化叙事手段,关注灾害事件中的受灾群体,将致灾的自然力量与社会人文因素交织在一起,把自然变化放在社会环境之中,气象专家、灾害专家和社会学者对灾害事件详细解读,使观众对灾害的认识更全面更深刻。对于抽象的知识、科学原理等,采用动画演示,以求通俗易懂。灾害纪实画面、灾害亲历者的现场采访、动画、解说、音乐、音效等表现形式经数字音视频编辑技术协调平衡,既真实生动,又具科普价值。自2003年以来,在栏目设计指导下,已经拍摄制作了200余期节目,通过各种播放,发挥了良好的科普效益,也为进一步做好气象灾害专题教育积累了经验。     

湖北地区云地闪电时空分布特征分析

为揭示湖北地区云地闪电时空分布特征及雷电活动规律,以满足雷电灾害防护和雷击风险评估工作需要,采用湖北不同地理位置的13个雷击探测仪组成的闪电监测定位系统获取的2006年3月至2009年2月的云地闪电资料,从闪电的极性分布、日变化、月变化、强度、闪电密度、累计概率分布等方面进行统计分析。结果表明:云地闪电中负闪电占闪电总数的96.2%;正闪电占闪电总数的3.8%;闪电频次的日变化呈明显的单峰单谷型,一日中,最大值出现在15—16时,最小值在09—10时;一年中,4—8月闪电次数占全年闪电总数的95.9%,其中7—8月闪电次数最多;正、负闪电的强度主要集中在10～50 kA,大于30 kA的累积概率在50%以下,大于60 kA的累积概率8.1%,大于100 kA的累积概率1.6%;拟合出湖北地区大于某雷电流强度累积概率方程,经统计分析,实测值与计算值相关系数达0.99998。闪电密度分布呈明显的地域性差异,鄂东南的嘉鱼县、咸宁、黄石、鄂州市一带为闪电高密度区,鄂西的远安县、当阳市附近为闪电次高密度区。山区与丘陵、平原交接地带,即地表状况发生明显变化的地带,是雷电多发地带。鄂西南山区县市雷电日数较多,闪电密度不一定随之增加,其原因可能是山区县市土壤电阻率较大和山区局地小气候环境共同影响的结果。     

陇中黄土高原地表能量不平衡特征及其影响机制研究

利用兰州大学半干旱气候与环境观测站(SACOL)2008年夏季的观测资料,分析了陇中黄土高原地表能量不平衡特征及其影响机制,计算了地表和5 cm深处土壤热通量板之间的热储存,并对地表能量不平衡特征重新进行了计算和评价。当把土壤热储存作为地表能量收支的一部分考虑后,不平衡差额绝对值平均降低了23 W.m-2,能量不闭合度平均减小了0.104,利用最小二乘法(OLS)进行线性回归得到的平均不闭合度减小了0.085。从白天和晚上的能量不闭合度频率分布也能够看出,土壤热储存对地表能量收支平衡有很大改善。但即使考虑了土壤热储存项,地表能量不闭合仍然很明显。除了土壤热储存,边界层大气不同形式的输送能力作为对地气能量通量交换过程中的重要因素,对能量不平衡也会产生深远影响。结果显示,地表能量不闭合度分别与垂直速度w、水平风速u和对流速度尺度w*有较密切的关系。涡动相关法通量计算中常通过坐标旋转强迫垂直速度变为零,然而非零的垂直速度和垂直平流是真实存在的,忽略垂直平流热量输送是产生地表能量不平衡的重要原因。     

Observations of Cloud Condensation Nuclei in North China

Using a DMT （Droplet Measurement Technologies） continuous flow streamwise thermal gradient cloud condensation nuclei （CCN） counter mounted on a Cheyenne IIIA aircraft, about 20 flights for aircraft mea- surements of CCN over North China were conducted in the autumn of 2005 and spring of 2006. According to the design for aircraft observation, the method of spiral ascent or descent in the troposphere was used for the vertical measurement of CCN, and some certain levels were chosen for horizontal measurement. The vertical distributions of CCN concentrations show that most CCN particles are concentrated in the low level of troposphere and CCN concentration decreased with height increasing. It suggests that the main source of CCN is from the surface. This result is consistent with former studies during 1983-1985 in China with a static thermal gradient CCN counter. The comparison of vertical observations between polluted rural area near Shijiazhuang and non-polluted rural area near Zhangjiakou shows that there is about five times difference in CCN concentration. But over two polluted cities, Shijiazhuang and Handan, there is no notable difference in CCN concentration. The horizontal flight measurements for penetrating the cumulus clouds experiment show the apparent decrease of CCN in clouds. It confirms that cloud has a definite consumptive effect on CCN particles because some CCN particles can form cloud droplets. The surface measurements of CCN in Shijiazhuang City were made during June-August 2005. The statistical CCN data show the great difference in concentration at the same supersaturation （S） in Shijiazhuang summertime. The minimum CCN concentrations were 584, 808, and 2431 cm-3, and the maximum concentrations were 9495, 16332, and 21812 cm-3 at S=0.1%, 0.3%, and 0.5%, respectively. CCN has a diurnal variation cycle. From 0600 BT, the concentration began to increase and reached the maximum at about noon. Then it generally decreased throughout the afternoon. The reason maybe is related to the onset o     

Study of Methods for Three-Dimensional Multiple-Radar Reflectivity Mosaics

This paper investigated several approaches to remapping and combining multiple-radar reflectivity fields onto a unified 3D Cartesian grid with high spatial and temporal resolutions,and analyzed systematic ob servation differences among multiple radars.The remapping approaches were evaluated by inspecting the spatial consistency of the reflectivity fields on vertical and horizontal cross sections on the equidistant line of radars,and the intensity change of 1-h accumulated precipitation before and after interpolation.The com bining approaches were evaluated by continuity examination.The results show that for remapping schemes,the vertical interpolation with nearest neighbor on the range-azimuth plane is the most reasonable scheme that provides consecutive reflectivity fields and retains the high-resolution structure comparable to that of the raw data;for multiple-radar data mosaics,the distance-exponential-weighted mean scheme provides spatially consistent reflectivity mosaics.The mosaics call mitigate various problems caused by the radar beam geometry such as the cone of silence.     

车尔臣河下游生态恢复的成因初步分析

利用且末1958--2005年的降水、气温、径流量、卫星遥感等资料,分析了车尔臣河下游生态环境变化的成因。指出全球气候变暖使得山区冰川融解加快,车尔臣河径流量增加有利于车尔臣河下游生态恢复;人类活动的增加如修防渗渠、人工造林、人工增雨、围湖育苇、人工输水等活动改变了小气候,改善了绿洲生态环境,是车尔臣河下游生态环境恢复的主要原因。     

平流层准两年周期振荡对CH4双峰的影响

分析了1992～2001年1月HALOE(卤素掩星试验装置)的CH4资料,研究了CH4的多年平均分布,结果表明:CH4混合比在平流层下层较大,向上迅速减小.同时,中纬度与热带CH4混合比的等压面梯度也随着高度逐渐减小,甚至在平流层顶附近和平流层上层形成双峰,这在北半球的春夏季特别明显.作者用NCAR的SOCRTAES二维模式的模拟结果来分析CH4混合比在平流层顶和平流层上层形成双峰的机理.模式作了以下两个模拟,其一为没有热带纬向风场QBO(准两年振荡)的状况,其二为加入QBO强迫后的模拟.结果发现QBO引起的余差环流对CH4混合比在热带和副热带平流层顶和平流层上层的输送是影响CH4双峰的一个主要原因.     

2008年初四川盆地极端低温雨雪灾害的水汽汇合机制探讨

利用NCEP／NCAR资料研究了2008年1月中下旬四川盆地的极端低温雨雪灾害。结果表明：四川盆地的低温雨雪天气与南来的水汽变化及长江流域的锋生作用有密切关系,在对流层中低层700hPa上,四川盆地长时间存在稳定的水汽辐合区,水汽辐合的时段基本与盆地冷空气活动时间段一致,这为低温降水的发生提供了水汽条件。另一方面,长江流域长时间存在一个“东西带状”分布的锋生带,这个锋生带的稳定使南来的西南水汽在四川盆地及长江流域以南地区受阻,从而形成了水汽长时间封闭,并引起了中低层的对流不稳定。因此,低层“东西向带状”锋生的长期维持使南来水汽受封闭是产生此次灾害的重要物理机制之一。     

集合预报风场扰动的物理结构及演变特征

初始扰动结构和振幅的合理性直接影响到集合预报的质量和整体性能,合理的初始扰动结构是确保集合预报扰动质量的关键.本文基于欧洲中期天气预报中心数据、我国T639全球集合预报系统以及GRAPES区域集合预报系统的预报场,针对模式初值不确定性,主要研究了风场初始扰动结构及其集合离散度、扰动能量等结构和演变特征,分析了集合预报风...