Characterizing the severe turbulence environments associated with commercial aviation accidents. A real-time turbulence model (RTTM) designed for the operational prediction of hazardous aviation turbulence environments

Summary In this paper, we will focus on the real-time prediction of environments that are predisposed to producing moderate-severe (hazardous) aviation turbulence. We will describe the numerical model and its postprocessing system that is designed for said prediction of environments predisposed to severe aviation turbulence as well as presenting numerous examples of its utility. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that simple hydrostatic precursor circulations organize regions of preferred wave breaking and turbulence at the nonhydrostatic scales of motion. This will be demonstrated with a hydrostatic numerical modeling system, which can be run in real time on a very inexpensive university computer workstation employing simple forecast indices. The forecast system is designed to efficiently support forecasters who are directing research aircraft to measure the environment immediately surrounding turbulence. The numerical model is MASS version 5.13, which is integrated over three different grid matrices in real-time on a university workstation in support of NASA-Langley’s B-757 turbulence research flight missions. The model horizontal resolutions are 60, 30, and 15 km and the grids are centered over the region of operational NASA-Langley B-757 turbulence flight missions. The postprocessing system includes several turbulence-related products including four turbulence forecasting indices, winds, streamlines, turbulence kinetic energy, and Richardson numbers. Additionally there are convective products including precipitation, cloud height, cloud mass fluxes, lifted index, and K-index. Furthermore, soundings, sounding parameters, and Froude number plots are also provided. The horizontal cross section plot products are provided from 16,000–46,000 feet in 2,000 feet intervals. Products are available every three hours at the 60 and 30 km grid interval and every 1.5 hours at the 15 km grid interval. The model is initialized from the NWS ETA analyses and integrated two times a day.     

冕洞演化与太阳活动周的关系及在日地预报中的应用

冕洞的研究在近二十多年里取得了丰硕的成果。本文回顾了冕洞的发现及观测历史，系统阐述了冕洞的结构特征、形成及演化规律，讨论了冕洞对日地空间产生的影响，冕洞与超级活动区的关系以及冕洞在太阳活动预报中所起的作用，在此基础上利用１９７０—１９９５年的冕洞资料对冕洞的时空分布和磁极性演化规律与太阳活动周的关系，以及冕洞与太阳风速度、地磁扰动等方面进行分析研究，得出以下结论：（１）冕洞在南北半球的分布在形态上基本是对称的，但在冕洞数量上北半球稍占优势；（２）冕洞的盛衰演化呈周期性，表现为赤道冕洞周期与黑子周期是完全一致的，极冕洞周期与黑子周期相位相差１８０°；（３）赤道冕洞的纬度分布随太阳活动周上升而上升，当太阳活动周达到极大值时，它也达到极大，然后再随太阳活动周下降而下降，极冕洞的纬度延伸方向演化与赤道冕洞相反；（４）极冕洞的极场呈１１年周期性，并且极场反转出现在太阳活动峰年期间；（５）太阳风和地磁扰动与冕洞的演化有着密切的关系     

The rms–flux relations in different branches in Cyg X-2

In this paper, the rms-flux (root mean square-flux) relation along the Z-track of the bright Z-Source Cyg X-2 is analyzed using the observational data of Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer (RXTE). Three types of rms-flux relations, i.e. positive, negative, and ‘arch’-like correlations are found in different branches. The rms is positively correlated with flux in normal branch (NB), but anti-correlated in the vertical horizontal branch (VHB). The rms–flux relation shows an ‘arch’-like shape in the horizontal branch (HB). We also try to explain this phenomenon using existing models.     

Dreifarbenphotometrie des offenen Sternhaufens An King 13

The open cluster An King 13 (α(1950) = 00^h07^m5 δ (1950) = +60°56') was measured in the UBV-system. An King 13 contained 80 stars up to the apparent magnitude m_v = 16.4 mag. The distance of the cluster is 1730 pc. The diameter of An King 13 is 7 pc. The luminocity function was determinated.     

Iron(III) accumulations in inland saline waterways,Hunter Valley,Australia: Mineralogy,micromorphology and pore-water geochemistry

Discharge of Fe(II)-rich groundwaters into surface-waters results in the accumulation of Fe(III)-minerals in salinized sand-bed waterways of the Hunter Valley, Australia. The objective of this study was to characterise the mineralogy, micromorphology and pore-water geochemistry of these Fe(III) accumulations. Pore-waters had a circumneutral pH (6.2–7.2), were sub-oxic to oxic (Eh 59–453 mV), and had dissolved Fe(II) concentrations up to 81.6 mg L⁻¹. X-ray diffraction (XRD) on natural and acid-ammonium-oxalate (AAO) extracted samples indicated a dominance of 2-line ferrihydrite in most samples, with lesser amounts of goethite, lepidocrocite, quartz, and alumino-silicate clays. The majority of Fe in the samples was bound in the AAO extractable fraction (Fe^Ox) relative to the Na-dithionite extractable fraction (Fe^Di), with generally high Fe^Ox:Fe^Di ratios (0.52–0.92). The presence of nano-crystalline 2-line ferrihydrite (Fe₅HO₃·4H₂O) with lesser amounts of goethite (α-FeOOH) was confirmed by scanning electron microscopy (SEM) coupled with energy dispersive X-ray analysis (EDX), and transmission electron microscopy (TEM) coupled with selected area electron diffraction (SAED). In addition, it was found that lepidocrocite (γ-FeOOH), which occurred as nanoparticles as little as ∼5 lattice spacings thick perpendicular to the (0 2 0) lattice plane, was also present in the studied Fe(III) deposits. Overall, the results highlight the complex variability in the crystallinity and particle-size of Fe(III)-minerals which form via oxidation of Fe(II)-rich groundwaters in sand-bed streams. This variability may be attributed to: (1) divergent precipitation conditions influencing the Fe(II) oxidation rate and the associated supply and hydrolysis of the Fe(III) ion, (2) the effect of interfering compounds, and (3) the influence of bacteria, especially Leptothrix ochracea.     

Evolution of Miocene fluvial environments, eastern Potwar plateau, northern Pakistan

The Miocene-Pliocene Siwalik Group records changing fluvial environments in the Himalayan foreland basin. The Nagri and Dhok Pathan Formations of this Group in the eastern Potwar Plateau, northern Pakistan, comprise relatively thick (tens of metres) sandstone bodies and mudstones that contain thinner sandstone bodies (metres thick) and palaeosols. Thick sandstone bodies extend for kilometres normal to palaeoflow, and are composed of large-scale stratasets (storeys) stacked laterally and vertically adjacent to each other. Sandstone bodies represent single or superimposed braided-channel belts, and large-scale stratasets represent channel bars and fills. Channel belts had widths of km, bankfull discharges on the order of 10³ cumecs and braiding parameter up to about 3. Individual channel segments had bankfull widths, maximum depths, and slopes on the order of 10² m, 10¹ m and 10^?4 respectively, and sinuosities around 1-1. These rivers are comparable to many of those flowing over the megafans of the modern Indo-Gangetic basin, and a similar depositional setting is likely. Thin sandstone bodies within mudstone sequences extend laterally for on the order of 10² m and have lobe, wedge, sheet and channel-form geometries: they represent crevasse splays, levees and floodplain channels. Mudstones are relatively bioturbated/disrupted and represent mainly floodbasin and lacustrine deposition. Mudstones and sandstones are extremely disrupted in places, showing evidence of prolonged pedogenesis. These ‘mature’ palaeosols are m thick and extend laterally for km. Lateral and vertical variations in the nature of their horizons apparently depend mainly on deposition rate. The 500 m-thick Nagri Formation has a greater proportion and thicker sandstone bodies than the overlying 700 m-thick Dhok Pathan Formation. The thick sandstone bodies and their large-scale stratasets thicken and coarsen through the Nagri Formation, then thin and fine at the base of the Dhok Pathan Formation. Compacted deposition rates increase with sandstone proportion (0-53 mm/year for Nagri, 0-24 mm/year for Dhok Pathan), and palaeosols are not as well developed where deposition rates are high. Within both formations there are 100 m-scale variations (representing on the order of 10⁵ years) in the proportion and thickness of thick sandstone bodies, and tens-of-m-scale alternations of thick sandstone bodies and mudstone-sandstone strata that represent on the order of 10⁴ years. Formation-scale stratal variations extend across the Potwar Plateau for at least 100 km, although they may be diachronous: however, 100-m and smaller scale variations can only be traced laterally for up to tens of km. Alluvial architecture models indicate that increases in the proportion and thickness of thick sandstone bodies can be explained by increasing channel-belt sizes (mainly), average deposition rate and avulsion frequency on a megafan comparable in size to modern examples. 100-m-scale variations in thick sandstone-body proportion and thickness could result from ‘regional’ shifts in the position of major channels, possibly associated with ‘fan lobes’on a single megafan or with separate megafans. However, such variations could also be related to local changes in subsidence rate or changes in sediment supply to the megafan system. Formation-scale and 100-m-scale stratal variations are probably associated with interelated changes in tectonic uplift, sediment supply and basin subsidence. Increased rates of hinterland uplift, sediment supply and basin subsidence, recorded by the Nagri Formation, may have resulted in diversion of a relatively large river to the area. Alternatively, changing river sizes and sediment supply rates may be related to climate changes affecting the hinterland (possibly linked to tectonic uplift). Climate during deposition of the Siwalik Group was monsoonal. Although the deposits contain no direct evidence for climate change, independent evidence indicates global cooling throughout the Miocene, and the possibility of glacial periods (e.g. around 10-8 Ma, corresponding to base of Nagri Formation). If the higher Himalayas were periodically glaciated, a mechanism would exist for varying sediment supply to megafans on time scales of 10⁴-10⁵ years. Although eustatic sea-level changes are related to global climatic change, they are not directly related to Siwalik stratigraphic changes, because the shoreline was many 100 km away during the Miocene.     

Studies on turbulent diffusion processes and evaluation of diffusivity values from hydrodynamic observations in Corpus Christi Bay

The physical process of dispersion which can be attributed to turbulence (turbulent diffusion) or shear (shear-augmented diffusion) within the flow field is very important as it ultimately governs the distribution of constituents of interest within the environment. A series of diffusion experiments were conducted in Corpus Christi Bay, TX with the purpose of characterizing turbulent diffusion through dispersion coefficients or turbulent diffusivity, K_i (i=x, y, z) dependent on the degree of randomness or turbulence intensity, I.Measured with a boat-mounted acoustic doppler current profiler (ADCP), the Eulerian velocity time-series of fluid particles in random motion, u_i was used in the evaluation of the Eulerian time-scale of turbulence, T^E based on the velocity correlation function, R^E with T^E being related to the Lagrangian time-scale T^L through a scaling parameter, β(=T^L/T^E). Surface currents were obtained with high frequency (HF) Radar equipment deployed over the study area from which the horizontal velocity gradients were determined.Within the spatial scale of the experiment (1000 m), the observed low horizontal gradients (10⁻⁴ s⁻¹) allowed for the generation of velocity time-series from an ADCP mounted on a moving platform. A numerical scheme for evaluating turbulent diffusivity values was developed on the basis of Eulerian current measurements and calibrated through the statistics of an evolving dye patch for the scaling parameter β which in this scheme was found to be in the range 1–3.     

Causes of the Regional Variability in Observed Sea Level,Sea Surface Temperature and Ocean Colour Over the Period 1993–2011

We analyse the regional variability in observed sea surface height (SSH), sea surface temperature (SST) and ocean colour (OC) from the ESA Climate Change Initiative datasets over the period 1993–2011. The analysis focuses on the signature of the ocean large-scale climate fluctuations driven by the atmospheric forcing and do not address the mesoscale variability. We use the ECCO version 4 ocean reanalysis to unravel the role of ocean transport and surface buoyancy fluxes in the observed SSH, SST and OC variability. We show that the SSH regional variability is dominated by the steric effect (except at high latitude) and is mainly shaped by ocean heat transport divergences with some contributions from the surface heat fluxes forcing that can be significant regionally (confirming earlier results). This is in contrast with the SST regional variability, which is the result of the compensation of surface heat fluxes by ocean heat transport in the mixed layer and arises from small departures around this background balance. Bringing together the results of SSH and SST analyses, we show that SSH and SST bear some common variability. This is because both SSH and SST variability show significant contributions from the surface heat fluxes forcing. It is evidenced by the high correlation between SST and buoyancy-forced SSH almost everywhere in the ocean except at high latitude. OC, which is determined by phytoplankton biomass, is governed by the availability of light and nutrients that essentially depend on climate fluctuations. For this reason, OC shows significant correlation with SST and SSH. We show that the correlation with SST displays the same pattern as the correlation with SSH with a negative correlation in the tropics and subtropics and a positive correlation at high latitude. We discuss the reasons for this pattern.