Inverse Analysis of Deep Excavation Using Differential Evolution Algorithm

This paper presents the applications of the differential evolution (DE) algorithm in back analysis of soil parameters for deep excavation problems. A computer code, named Python‐based DE, is developed and incorporated into the commercial finite element software ABAQUS, with a parallel computing technique to run an FE analysis for all trail vectors of one generation in DE in multiple cores of a cluster, which dramatically reduces the computational time. A synthetic case and a well‐instrumented real case, that is, the Taipei National Enterprise Center (TNEC) project, are used to demonstrate the capability of the proposed back‐analysis procedure. Results show that multiple soil parameters are well identified by back analysis using a DE optimization algorithm for highly nonlinear problems. For the synthetic excavation case, the back‐analyzed parameters are basically identical to the input parameters that are used to generate synthetic response of wall deflection. For the TNEC case with a total of nine parameters to be back analyzed, the relative errors of wall deflection for the last three stages are 2.2, 1.1, and 1.0%, respectively. Robustness of the back‐estimated parameters is further illustrated by a forward prediction. The wall deflection in the subsequent stages can be satisfactorily predicted using the back‐analyzed soil parameters at early stages. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

School vulnerability to disaster: examination of school closure,demographic, and exposure factors in Hurricane Ike’s wind swath

Damage and destruction to schools from climate-related disasters can have significant and lasting impacts on curriculum and educational programs, educational attainment, and future income-earning potential of affected students. As such, assessing the potential impact of hazards is crucial to the ability of individuals, households, and communities to respond to natural disasters, extreme events, and economic crises. Yet, few studies have focused on assessing the vulnerability of schools in coastal regions of the USA. Using Hurricane Ike’s tropical storm wind swath in the State of Texas as our study area, we: (1) assessed the spatial distribution patterns of school closures and (2) tested the relationship between school closure and vulnerability factors (namely physical exposure and school demographics) using zero-inflated negative binomial regression models. The regression results show that higher probabilities of hurricane strikes, more urbanized school districts, and school districts located in coastal counties on the right side of Ike’s path have significant positive associations with an increase in the number of school closure days. Socioeconomic characteristics were not significantly associated with the number of days closed, with the exception of proportion of Hispanic youth in schools, a result which is not supported by the social vulnerability literature. At a practical level, understanding how hurricanes may adversely impact schools is important for developing appropriate preparedness, mitigation, recovery, and adaptation strategies. For example, school districts on the right side of the hurricane track can plan in advance for potential damage and destruction. The ability of a community to respond to future natural disasters, extreme events, and economic crises depends in part on mitigating these adverse effects.     

Energetic protons from the solar flare of March 24, 1966

Ten to 100 meV protons from the solar flare of March 24, 1966 were observed on the University of California scintillation counter on OGO-I. The short rise and decay times observed in the count rates of the 32 channels of pulse-height analysis show that scattering of the protons by the interplanetary field was much less important in this event than in previously observed proton flares. A diffusion theory in which D = M _r is found to be inadequate to account for the time behavior of the count rates of this event. Small fluctuations of the otherwise smooth decay phase may be due to flare protons reflected from the back of a shock front, which passed the earth on March 23.     

A glancing incidence solar telescope for the soft x-ray region

This paper describes the instrumentation of an Aerobee rocket (NASA 4.95 GS) which was launched from White Sands Missile Range on May 20th 1966, to observe the Sun in the soft X-ray region. The experiment package, which was pointed at the sun by a control system stabilized about all three axes, carried two Wolter type I glancing incidence telescopes to photograph the sun in wavelength regions (determined by bandpass filters) between 3 and 75 Å, and two proportional counters to obtain flux data and rough spectral shapes in the regions 2–11 Å and 8–20 Å. The spatial resolution obtained was about 20 arc seconds. Limb brightening and polar darkening are very pronounced at the longer wavelengths. A tuft of emission was observed at the North Pole in addition to an arch-like structure on the NW limb. Several of the photographs are presented, and some preliminary results are discussed.     

Sea-level rise and flooding in coastal riverine flood plains

Abstract

This work presents a method for calculating the contributions of sea-level rise and urban growth to flood risk in coastal flood plains. The method consists of hydraulic/hydrological, urban growth and flood-damage quantification modules. The hydraulic/hydrological module estimates peak annual flows to generate flood stages impacted by sea-level rise within flood plains. A model for urban growth predicts patterns of urbanization within flood plains over the period 2010–2050. The flood-damage quantification module merges flood maps and urbanization predictions to calculate the expected annual flood damage (EAFD) for given scenarios of sea-level rise. The method is illustrated with an application to the Tijuana River of southern California, USA, and northwestern Mexico, where the EAFD is predicted to increase by over US$100 million because of sea-level rise of 0.25–1.0 m and urban growth by the year 2050. It is shown that urbanization plays a principal role in increasing the EAFD in the study area for the range of sea-level rise considered.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Garcia, E.S. and Loáiciga, H.A., 2013. Sea-level rise and flooding in coastal riverine flood plains. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (1), 204–220.     

Dissolved oxygen variations in alpine glacial meltwaters

Recent models of chemical weathering in alpine glacial meltwaters suggest that sulphide oxidation is a major source of solute in the distributed component of the subglacial hydrological system. This reaction requires O₂, and may lower dissolved oxygen levels to below saturation with respect to the atmosphere. This should result in an inverse association between SO₇^2- and dissolved oxygen saturation. However, measurements of O₂ saturation in bulk meltwaters draining the Haut Glacier d'Arolla, Switzerland, show that there is a positive association between SO₄^2- and O₂ saturation. The O₂ content of glacial meltwaters depends on the initial content of snow and icemelt, which may be controlled by the rate of melting, and the kinetic balance between O₂ losses (e.g. sulphide oxidation, microbial respiration) and gains (e.g. diffusion of O₂ into solution).     

Meteorological Office, Pune-411 005

Natural disasters like floods, tornadoes, tropicalcyclones, heat and cold wavewreak havoc and cause tremendous loss ofproperty all over the world. Most ofthe natural disasters are either dueto weather or are triggered due toweather related processes.Extreme weather events claimed thousands oflives and caused damage on vastscale. Recent super cyclone which affectedOrissa in 1999, Bangladesh cyclone of1970 and Hurricane Andrew in 1992 areexamples of some of the more damagingtropical cyclones which affected developingas well as the developed world. Heatand cold waves are also extreme events,which cause enormous losses in terms oflives lost and human discomfort and ailmentsarising out of them. The heat waveof 1995 and 1998 are still fresh in the mindof the Indian public. The estimated lossof human lives due to heat wave in 1998 was morethan 15,000. Economic losses asa result of these disasters and in particular inassociation with tropical cyclones haveincreased enormously over the last three decades.During 1961–1991, total loss oflives from drought alone was 1,333,728 overthe whole world. In terms of economiclosses, there is 8–10 fold increase from thebase figure of 1960. The socio-economicimpact of natural disaster is complex dependingupon the vulnerability of the placeand mitigation strategies that are put in place.Meteorology plays a crucial role in forewarningpeople about the severe/extremeweather systems and a constant endeavour by themeteorological services worldover has gone a long way towards minimizing thelosses caused by natural disasters.The paper summarises the natural disasterstatistics over south Asia and the possibleprediction strategies for combating theirsocio-economic impacts.     

Tropospheric Ozone in a Global-Scale Three-Dimensional Lagrangian Model and Its Response to NOX Emission Controls

A three-dimensional Lagrangian tropospheric chemistry modelis used toinvestigate the impact of human activities on the tropospheric distributionofozone and hydroxyl radicals. The model describes the behaviour of 50 speciesincluding methane, carbon monoxide, oxides of nitrogen, sulphur dioxide andnineorganic compounds emitted from human activities and a range of other sources.Thechemical mechanism involves about 100 chemical reactions of which 16 arephotochemical reactions whose diurnal dependence is treated in full. The modelutilises a five minute chemistry time step and a three hour advection timestepfor the 50,000 air parcels. Meteorological data for the winds, temperatures,clouds and so on are taken from the UK Meteorological Office global model for1994 onwards. The impacts of a 50% reduction in European NO_Xemissions onglobal ozone concentrations are assessed. Surface ozoneconcentrations decrease in summertime and rise in wintertime, but to differentextents.     

A Preliminary Analysis of Disturbance Tracksover the Mediterranean Basin

Summary  The Mediterranean basin experiences considerable cyclone activity mostly during fall, winter and spring and diminished activity during summer. In this study we present results of synoptic disturbance track analysis for two contrasting winter months and two, near average, summer months over the eastern Mediterranean. The surface and 500 hPa disturbance tracks were subjectively analyzed from two points of view. First, looking at tracks of conventionally defined cyclone centers (eddies) based on actual pressure and height distribution and second, looking at tracks of transient cyclonic disturbances (TRADs), defined as centers of negative deviations from the time mean. The second type of analysis demonstrated a considerable increase in the number of detectable tracks. Over the Mediterranean and vicinity the ratio between the number of surface TRAD tracks to cyclone tracks is, about 2, whereas at 500 hPa the ratio is much higher, about 5. However, the average life span of transient disturbances was only slightly longer than that of conventional cyclones (mainly at 500 hPa). At the surface and at 500 hPa about 50% of the cyclone tracks coincided to a certain extent with TRAD tracks. In summer, when conventional analysis over the eastern Mediterranean yields mostly quasi‐stationary low pressure centers associated with the Persian Gulf Trough, we detected clear signs of transient disturbances. Some interpretations of the differences between cyclones and TRADs in terms of weather in the eastern Mediterranean are also made. Received January 19, 1999Revised June 23, 1999