Statistical analysis and long-term prediction of seismicity for linear zones

The model of the Poisson point process is too vague for earthquake locations in space and time: earthquakes tend to cluster in middle distances and to repulse in large ones. The Poisson point model with variable density makes it possible to describe the tendency for clustering but does not reveal the periodicity of clusters. The author proposes the point-process model where locations of points are determined not by densities of point distribution, but by densities of interpoint differences distribution. In the model, a latent periodicity is revealed and used for prediction of a point process. In 1983, the point-process model prediction was made for the Kuril Islands for 1983–1987 and two signs of danger in time and location were determined. Then they were confirmed by strong earth-quakes. In 1989, a similar prediction was made for North Armenia. The Spitak earthquake in 1988 is clearly seen from the data of previous earthquakes.     

Palaeolimnological studies of the eutrophication of volcanic Lake Albano (Central Italy)

We use palaeolimnological techniques to reconstruct the eutrophication history of a volcanic lake (Lake Albano, central Italy) over the past three centuries. The presence of annual varves down to the bottom of the core (c. 1700 A.D.) indicated the lack of bioturbation and likely long-term meromixis. Sedimentation rates were estimated by varve counts (calcite/diatom couplets), indicating a mean rate of 0.15 cm yr^–1. The reconstruction of eutrophication was traced using past populations of algal and photosynthetic bacteria (through their fossil pigment), and geochemistry, as well as fossil remains of chironomids. Phaeophorbidea and the red carotenoid astaxanthin were used to detect past zooplankton development.The first sign of trophic change related to human activities is datedc. 1870 A.D. From that period onward a sharp increase of authigenic CaCO₃, nitrogen, N:P ratio, and dinoxanthin, a characteristic carotenoid of Chrysophyceae and Dinophyceae, is observed.Chironomid analyses showed the near absence of a deep water fauna throughout the core length. The populations of chironomid larvae are restricted to oxygenated littoral zones. In fact, the few fossil remains found are primarily of littoral origin, representing shallow water midges that were transported to profundal waters. The reduction of total chironomid in the uppermost layers of the core is to be related to human land uses.     

Diatom assemblages from Costa Rican lakes: an initial ecological assessment

We compared the distributions of 59 diatom species in surface sediments of 25 Costa Rican lakes with 21 environmental variables using canonical correspondence analysis (CCA). The distribution of taxa was related to the chemical and physical characteristics of the lakes. The most influential chemical variables were cation concentrations (especially magnesium) and related variables such as water hardness, pH, and temperature. Lake area and lake depth were among the most important physical variables.A number of taxa were identified as potential environmental indicators. The diatoms Brachysira serians var. brachysira and Frustulia rhomboides seem to be associated with low values of alkalinity, hardness, Ca, Mg, and SiO2. Cymbella minuta var. silesiaca is associated with low to moderate values of alkalinity, hardness, Ca, and Mg. Nitzschia cf. amphibia may be an indicator of moderate-to-high concentrations of Mg. Pinnularia braunii var. amphicephala seems to prefer low values of hardness, Ca, Mg, and SiO2.In many closed lakes, these environmental variables (Mg/Ca/hardness/alkalinity) increase with effective evaporation. Consequently, these diatoms may be indirectly tracking P:E ratios. Results from this initial, small data set indicate the potential of diatoms for inferring lake paleochemistry, and perhaps P:E ratios, in Costa Rica.     

Sporadic and recurrent geomagnetic disturbances in 1859–1860 according to the archived data from the Russian network of stations

Based on an analysis of the available archived data from the Russian network of geomagnetic stations, it has been indicated that the known event of August–September 1859 was the first and the greatest event in the series of the recurrent geomagnetic storms. Similar series were repeatedly observed in the next years. These series are caused by the processes on the Sun and in the heliosphere related to the superposition of the solar wind flows. The sporadic and regular components in joint activity of the complex, including active regions and coronal holes on the rotating Sun, play the role of the Bartels M regions responsible for initiation and development of geomagnetic storms. Neither coronal holes nor active regions can separately explain observations. During interpretation, active regions and coronal holes should be considered as a unified complex.     

Feature modeling approach to simulating Loop Current Frontal Eddies

Loop Current Frontal Eddies (LCFE) in the Gulf of Mexico are simulated with a regional configuration of the Princeton Ocean Model using a feature-oriented initialization technique. The initialization procedure is based on a prior investigation of stability characteristics of the Loop Current (LC). Zonal channel experiments conducted with a multi-layer intermediate equations model allowed to identify conditions necessary for formation and growth of frontal eddies. The simulations were able to reproduce key features of LCFE-topography interaction in the DeSoto Canyon region observed during the “Eddy Intrusion” study.     

Demersal Continental Shelf and Upper Slope Cephalopod Assemblages from the Balearic Sea (North-Western Mediterranean). Biological Aspects of Some Deep-Sea Species

The analysis of 79 hauls performed by commercial bottom trawlers from 50 to 800 m depth in the Balearic Sea (north-western Mediterranean) from June 1995 to September 1996 yielded a total of 30 cephalopod species belonging to 12 families. Cluster analysis of these data gave as a result two main groups 50–200 m and 200–800 m each subdivided into two other groups (50–100 vs. 100–200 m and 200–600 vs. 600–800 m). These results suggested the existence of two assemblages that could be associated to the continental shelf (50–100 m) and the upper slope (600–800 m) separated by a wide transitional zone (100–600 m) representing a region of overlapping shelf and slope faunas (ecotone). The faunistic bathymetric gradient showed a continuous substitution of species with depth rather than discrete assemblages separated by distinct boundaries. The more coastal species such as Eledone moschata, Loligo vulgarisSepia officinalis and Octopus vulgaris were found on the continental shelf; on the transitional zone, apart from species characteristic of this zone (Illex coindetii, Sepietta oweniana, Rossia macrosoma, Scaeurgus unicirrhus and Pteroctopus tetracirrhus), we also observed species from both the continental shelf and slope. The upper slope was characterized by typical species of deeper waters, such asBathypolypus sponsalis , Histioteuthis reversa, H. bonnellii, Ancistroteuthis lichtensteinii andOnychoteuthis banksii . The octopod O. vulgaris was the dominant species on the continental shelf and upper transitional zone, being substituted by T. sagittatus on the lower transitional zone and upper slope. Mean biomass decreased abruptly from the continental shelf to the transitional zone and from there to the upper slope. Mean species richness and species diversity were higher in the transitional zone than in the continental shelf and upper slope. Finally, some biological aspects of the more abundant deep-sea cephalopod species are studied: Bathypolypus sponsalis, Octopus salutii,Pteroctopus tetracirrhus , Histioteuthis reversa and H. bonnellii.     

Nitrous oxide production and denitrification rates in estuarine intertidal saltmarsh and managed realignment zones

Increasing concerns over habitat loss and rising costs of sea defence maintenance due to rising sea levels, has seen increases in the practice of managed realignment and reflooding of former reclaimed areas of intertidal saltmarsh and mudflat around the world. These practices are taking place with little knowledge of their impact on soil biogeochemical processes. Rates of denitrification (using the acetylene inhibition technique) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) production were measured from a long-established saltmarsh (SM) and an adjacent, recently re-flooded managed realignment (MR) site comprising former arable land in the estuary of the River Torridge, Devon, UK. Incubations were carried out in closed chambers in which patterns of tidal flooding were simulated automatically. Measurements were made during periods of flood and non-flood over a total of four tidal inundations with estuarine water. During the latter two flooding episodes floodwater was amended with nitrate (NO₃⁻). Nitrous oxide production in the SM soil generally was lower than in the MR soil, with mean values and standard errors over the whole incubation of 0.27 ± 0.16 mg N₂O-N m⁻² h⁻¹ and 0.65 ± 0.15 mg N₂O-N m⁻² h⁻¹ respectively. Denitrification rates demonstrated a similar trend although generally were an order of magnitude higher than N₂O production, with mean rates and standard errors of 2.88 ± 1.12 mg N₂O-N m⁻² h⁻¹ in the SM soil and 3.39 ± 1.16 mg N₂O-N m⁻² h⁻¹ in the MR soil. The data suggest that both soils are net sinks for NO₃⁻ and net sources for N₂O. Both patterns of tidal inundation and floodwater chemistry affect the process rates in each soil differently. The impact of flooding with NO₃⁻ – amended water was greater on the SM soil than the MR soil, and it is likely that decomposing vegetation buried in the accreting sediments following reflooding at the MR site were supplying a source of N in the soil, and so process rates were less dependent upon external supplies. The act of managed realignment in intertidal zones could therefore result in an increase in mean production of N₂O in intertidal zones, at least in the short term.     

First‐order exchange coefficient coupling for simulating surface water–groundwater interactions: parameter sensitivity and consistency with a physics‐based approach

Distributed hydrologic models capable of simulating fully‐coupled surface water and groundwater flow are increasingly used to examine problems in the hydrologic sciences. Several techniques are currently available to couple the surface and subsurface; the two most frequently employed approaches are first‐order exchange coefficients (a.k.a., the surface conductance method) and enforced continuity of pressure and flux at the surface‐subsurface boundary condition. The effort reported here examines the parameter sensitivity of simulated hydrologic response for the first‐order exchange coefficients at a well‐characterized field site using the fully coupled Integrated Hydrology Model (InHM). This investigation demonstrates that the first‐order exchange coefficients can be selected such that the simulated hydrologic response is insensitive to the parameter choice, while simulation time is considerably reduced. Alternatively, the ability to choose a first‐order exchange coefficient that intentionally decouples the surface and subsurface facilitates concept‐development simulations to examine real‐world situations where the surface‐subsurface exchange is impaired. While the parameters comprising the first‐order exchange coefficient cannot be directly estimated or measured, the insensitivity of the simulated flow system to these parameters (when chosen appropriately) combined with the ability to mimic actual physical processes suggests that the first‐order exchange coefficient approach can be consistent with a physics‐based framework. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.