“东方之星”客轮翻沉事件周边区域风灾现场调查与多尺度特征分析

2015年6月1日21:30左右长江湖北监利段发生"东方之星"客轮翻沉特大事故。本文根据事发周边陆地区域现场天气调查结果,结合卫星和雷达观测资料分析认为,6月1日21:00-21:40左右事发江段和周边区域发生了下击暴流导致的强烈大风灾害,最强风力超过12级,并具有空间分布不连续、多尺度和强灾害时空尺度小等特征。事发周边区域北部受中气旋影响陆地区域(顺星村、老台深水码头、四台村养猪场附近、新沟子养鸡场附近等)灾情较南部阵风锋及其后侧下击暴流影响的陆地区域更为显著。综合雷达观测资料和现场调查资料分析判断多数调查点灾害为显著微下击暴流所致,其中老台深水码头有龙卷发生的可能。导致此次风灾的强对流风暴气流具有显著的多尺度性;事发周边区域北部的四台村养猪场附近树林中同时发生了多条相邻的微下击暴流条迹,呈现出辐散和辐合交替分布的特征,展示了此次强对流风暴中大气运动的复杂分布特点。虽然下击暴流会伴随中小尺度的涡旋特征,但此次现场调查发现的与下击暴流相联系的辐合特征水平尺度仅几十米,远小于弓形回波两端的书挡涡旋或者中涡旋等几千米级的水平尺度。     

黄渤海底层盐度预报方法的研究

根据二维流体动力学方程和深度平均盐度扩散方程在河口径流量以及蒸发和降水之差为已知情况下构成的闭合方程组,预报出深度平均盐度,然后利用底层盐度与深度平均盐度、水深和时间(月)之间的经验关系,给出底层盐度的二维预报。为了检验试报结果的可靠性,文中将黄渤海底层盐度的试报结果(1979年7月11日,时效为3d)与标准断面观测资料(7月4—14日观测,124.5°E以西,共104站)作一粗略比较。比较表明,试报结果与实测值的相关系数为0.96,均方误差为α=0.26,绝对误差小于0.2和0.3的站数分别占总站数的63.5％和77.0％,而总均绝差为0.19。由此可见,试报的效果是令人满意的。     

Different approaches to model error formulation in 4D-Var: a study with high-resolution advection schemes

All numerical models are imperfect. Weak constraint variational data assimilation ( VDA ), which provides a treatment of the modelling errors, is studied; building on the approach of Vidard et al. (Tellus, 56 A, pp. 177–188, 2004). The evolution of model error ( ME ) is modelled using ordinary differential equations, which involve a scalar parameter. These approaches were tested using different high-resolution advection schemes. The first set of experiments were constructed to see if it is possible to account for (numerical) discretization error within such a framework. In other set of experiments, a systematic source of modelling error was introduced by deliberately specifying an incorrect value for the Coriolis parameter in the model. Results with observational state at half of the model state resolution, are also presented. We also discuss a method of estimating the scalar parameter in the ME through VDA . In all cases, the inclusion of ME provides reduction in forecasting errors. Also, our experiments indicate that different settings of the model (e.g. using different high-resolution advection schemes) would need different ME formulation. Results presented in this paper could be used to formulate sophisticated ME forms to account for systematic errors in higher dimensional models with complex advection schemes.     

Thermal Stratification in Saldanha Bay (South Africa) and Subtidal, Density-driven Exchange with the Coastal Waters of the Benguela Upwelling System

A study was conducted to understand the mechanisms driving observed subtidal variability in the stratification of Saldanha Bay, located in the southern Benguela system. It was found that the 6–8 day period variability in bay stratification was caused by the inflow and outflow of cold upwelled water driven by changing baroclinic pressure gradients between the coastal and bay domains. The direction and magnitude of the pressure gradients were governed by coastal upwelling activity and a lag in the response of the bay to changes in density structure in the coastal ocean. When the pressure gradients were bayward and cold water was being driven into the bay the cycle was termed to be in an ‘ active phase ’ and the reverse was termed the ‘ relaxation phase ’. The upwelling-favourable equatorward wind stress impacted the bay stratification in two ways: on the regional scale, wind drives upwelling and governs the inflow–outflow of cold upwelled bottom water, which strengthens stratification; conversely, on the local bay scale, wind drives vertical mixing, which weakens stratification. A four-phase model is used to describe the observed variability in stratification in the bay. The associated density-driven exchange flows are capable of flushing the bay in 6–8 days, about one-third of the time for tidal exchange alone (c. 25 days). These inflows of cold bottom water are ecologically critical as they supply nutrients to the bay and thus impose a control on new production within the bay environment. Further ecological implications of this bay–ocean exchange include export of phytoplankton new production to the coast, limitation of the risk of harmful algal blooms (HABs) and the division of the system into two distinct ecosystems (bay and lagoon).     

Automatic Profiling System for Underice Measurements

The article is devoted to the development of an autonomous profiling system for measuring the aquatic environment under ice. The system moves up and down in the water column along a cable with a load at the lower end, which is lowered into a lane in the ice. The system carrier is designed for transporting an acoustic Doppler current profiler and a salinity, temperature, and pressure probe. The system will be useful for long-term measurements of vertical profiles of the current speed and marine environment parameters, as well as ice draft. The article describes in detail the structure and operation of the system. The hydraulic scheme of the carrier buoyancy system is presented.

     

North Pacific sea ice cover, a predictor for the Western North Pacific typhoon frequency?

The relationship between the sea ice cover in the North Pacific and the typhoon frequency has been studied in this paper. It follows that the index for the sea ice cover in the North Pacific (ISA) both in December-January-February (DJF) and in March-April-May (MAM) is negatively correlated with annual typhoon number over the western North Pacific (TNWNP) during 1965―2004, with correlation coeffi-cients of -0.42 and -0.49 respectively (above 99% significant level). Large sea ice cover in the North Pacific tends to decrease TNWNP. Positive ISA (MAM) is associated with the tropical circulation and SST anomalies in the North Pacific, which may lead to unfavorable dynamic and thermal conditions for typhoon genesis over WNP from June to October (JJASO). The variability of the atmospheric circula-tion over the North Pacific, associated with the ISA anomaly in MAM is connected to the tropical at-mospheric circulation variability in MAM via the teleconnection wave train. Besides, as the tropical circulation has strong seasonal persistency from the MAM to JJASO, thus, the ISA in MAM-related variability of the tropical atmospheric circulation as well as the SST can affect the typhoon activity over the western North Pacific.     

Effects of sampling effort on the estimation of spatial gradients in a tropical reservoir impacted by an oil refinery

We investigated the effects of increase in sampling effort (30-1043 sampling points) on the accuracy of assessment of the spatial patterns of surface-water quality in a eutrophic tropical reservoir. The investigation was carried out during the dry season, when previous investigations showed that the spatial heterogeneity is more stable. A multi-parameter Yellow Springs Instruments probe coupled to a TechGeo D-GPS was used. This system is equipped to measure and store in a continuous recording mode, several physical and chemical parameters linked to geographical coordinates obtained with a precision of less than 1 m. We used different geostatistical approaches to determine the optimal number of sampling points required to reflect the real spatial patterns of water quality in the system. This approach was tested in a small tropical reservoir (Ibirité) that receives effluents from an oil refinery (the state-owned REGAP oil refinery, PETROBRAS) located near the city of Belo Horizonte. The study showed not only that the spatial patterns of water quality are significantly affected by sampling effort but also it was demonstrated that the establishment of an adequate sampling program is a critical point for the precise identification of source points of pollution. The results of this investigation enabled us to demonstrate the potential uses and limits of this method for rapid assessment of the water quality of lakes and reservoirs that receive external inputs of water contaminants or nutrients.     

北京白家疃台站重力非潮汐量变化及水储量影响的初步研究

The non-tidal variation gained from continuous gravity observations in stations usually reflects the regional continuous gravity changes. In this paper we focus on studying the non-tidal variation of Baijiatuan station, Beijing where there are two different gravimeters （namely, L＆R-804 and PET-031）. Based on the original raw tidal records of two gravimeters from 2008 to 2011, we first remove various interference from raw data by the standard procedure software-Tsoft; then we model the solid earth tides, ocean tidal loading and pole tide through related parameters; after that we adopt a new segmented polynomial fitting method based on Tsoft to fit the complex drift of spring gravimeter; and finally we calculate the atmospheric loading effects by a linear regression model. After a series of processing we gain the non-tidal variation of the two gravimeters at Baijiatuan site, Beijing. Furthermore, to analyze the non-tidal variation preliminarily, we study the main component of related tidal data by power spectral density. Comparing the non-tidal variation of two different gravimeters, we find seasonal fluctuations in non-tidal results, which are in accordance with the water storage change. Therefore, we take into account the relevance of gravity changes and water storage based on the gravity data of GRACE and water data of the CMAP model from 2003 to 2011 at different sites in the Chinese mainland （Beijing, Chengdu, Shenyang and Shiquanhe） , and make a preliminary analysis on the relationship between gravity changes and water storage.     

宁夏及青海地震活动性统计指标及未来地震趋势的综合概率预报

本文叙述了地震活动的综合概率预报方法，并对宁夏及青海地区（３５°００’－４１°００’Ｎ，１００°００’－１０７°４０’Ｅ）１９７０年以来的地震活动资料进行了统计计算，对１９９２年－１９９３年该区地震活动进行了综合预报效能检验。并据此对该区１９９４年－１９９５年的地震趋势做了估计。