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921.
Meso-gamma scale forecasts using the nonhydrostatic model LM 总被引:10,自引:0,他引:10
J. Steppeler G. Doms U. Schättler H. W. Bitzer A. Gassmann U. Damrath G. Gregoric 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2003,82(1-4):75-96
Summary ?The nonhydrostatic model LM was developed for small scale operational predictions. Advances in computer development will
give the possibility of operational models of a rather fine scale, which will cover the meso-gamma scale. The LM is currently
applied at a scale of 7 km and an increase of the operational resolution to 2.5 km is planned for the next few years. Predictions
of such high resolution require to abandon the hydrostatic assumption, which is used with most current operational weather
prediction models. The LM was designed to cover all resolutions from 50 m to 50 km with an efficiency making it suitable for
operational use. It is a fully elastic model, using second order centred finite differences. The time integration is done
using the Klemp–Wilhelmson method, treating the slow modes by a larger time step than the fast modes. The vertical propagation
of the fast waves is done implicitly.
After describing the design of the LM, this paper gives examples of model predictions at the meso-γ scale. Some results of
the current operational application at the resolution 7 km are presented. Deficiencies in the localisation of model generated
precipitation are investigated using an idealised bell shaped mountain and applying different resolutions. In this way the
convergence to the correct solution can be investigated. From these results it is concluded, that orographic filtering is
necessary and the effect of such filtering on precipitation forecasts is investigated. Finally, the prediction of a squall
line over northern Germany is shown in order to demonstrate the potential of the model in forecasting the meso-γ scale.
Received May 15, 2001; revised September 21, 2001 相似文献
922.
The climatic impacts of land surface change and carbon management, and the implications for climate-change mitigation policy 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
Strategies to mitigate anthropogenic climate change recognize that carbon sequestration in the terrestrial biosphere can reduce the build-up of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere. However, climate mitigation policies do not generally incorporate the effects of these changes in the land surface on the surface albedo, the fluxes of sensible and latent heat to the atmosphere, and the distribution of energy within the climate system. Changes in these components of the surface energy budget can affect the local, regional, and global climate. Given the goal of mitigating climate change, it is important to consider all of the effects of changes in terrestrial vegetation and to work toward a better understanding of the full climate system. Acknowledging the importance of land surface change as a component of climate change makes it more challenging to create a system of credits and debits wherein emission or sequestration of carbon in the biosphere is equated with emission of carbon from fossil fuels. Recognition of the complexity of human-caused changes in climate does not, however, weaken the importance of actions that would seek to minimize our disturbance of the Earth’s environmental system and that would reduce societal and ecological vulnerability to environmental change and variability. 相似文献
923.
924.
Least-squares prediction using an empirically deduced local covariance function was performed to investigate the temporal
change in the rates of vertical crustal movements in the Tohoku district, Japan. Levelling data covering an area of approximately
450 × 275 km2 observed between 1966 and 1995 were used and the results shown in the form of contour maps. Firstly we derived a covariance
function of the rates of vertical crustal movement with a Gaussian form function. We used this function to estimate the spatial
distribution of the rates of vertical crustal movements. By the present method, a steady tilt of the Tohoku district to the
east, toward the Japan Trench and an areal uplift in the southwestern part were well reproduced. Moreover, a significant temporal
change in vertical movement rates is clearly seen.
Received: 15 July 1996 相似文献
925.
This paper explores the potential of a digital camera to produce multiple images suitable for plotting. The objective was to build a three dimensional database by linking triangulated images from a Kodak DCS420 digital camera with a computer aided measurement system. The system then supplied X, Y, Z data from x, y image co-ordinates captured off two or more images. Relative accuracy in object space was around 1;50 000. 相似文献
926.
A two-dimensional vertically integrated ice flow model has been developed to test the importance of various processes and
concepts used for the prediction of the contribution of the Greenland ice-sheet to sea-level rise over the next 350 y (short-term
response). The mass balance is modelled by the degree-day method and the energy-balance method. The lithosphere is considered
to respond isostatically to a point load and the time evolution of the bedrock follows from a viscous asthenosphere. According
to the IPCC-IS92a scenario (with constant aerosols after 1990) the Greenland ice-sheet is likely to cause a global sea level
rise of 10.4 cm by 2100 AD. It is shown, however, that the result is sensitive to precise model formulations and that simplifications
as used in the sea-level projection in the IPCC-96 report yield less accurate results. Our model results indicate that, on
a time scale of a hundred years, including the dynamic response of the ice-sheet yields more mass loss than the fixed response
in which changes in geometry are not incorporated. It appears to be important to consider sliding, as well as the fact that
climate sensitivity increases for larger perturbations. Variations in predicted sea-level change on a time scale of hundred
years depend mostly on the initial state of the ice-sheet. On a time scale of a few hundred years, however, the variability
in the predicted melt is dominated by the variability in the climate scenarios.
Received: 21 August 1996/Accepted: 12 May 1997 相似文献
927.
The North Atlantic is one of the few places on the globe where the atmosphere is linked to the deep ocean through air–sea
interaction. While the internal variability of the atmosphere by itself is only predictable over a period of one to two weeks,
climate variations are potentially predictable for much longer periods of months or even years because of coupling with the
ocean. This work presents details from the first study to quantify the predictability for simulated multidecadal climate variability
over the North Atlantic. The model used for this purpose is the GFDL coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model used extensively
for studies of global warming and natural climate variability. This model contains fluctuations of the North Atlantic and
high-latitude oceanic circulation with variability concentrated in the 40–60 year range. Oceanic predictability is quantified
through analysis of the time-dependent behavior of large-scale empirical orthogonal function (EOF) patterns for the meridional
stream function, dynamic topography, 170 m temperature, surface temperature and surface salinity. The results indicate that
predictability in the North Atlantic depends on three main physical mechanisms. The first involves the oceanic deep convection
in the subpolar region which acts to integrate atmospheric fluctuations, thus providing for a red noise oceanic response as
elaborated by Hasselmann. The second involves the large-scale dynamics of the thermohaline circulation, which can cause the
oceanic variations to have an oscillatory character on the multidecadal time scale. The third involves nonlocal effects on
the North Atlantic arising from periodic anomalous fresh water transport advecting southward from the polar regions in the
East Greenland Current. When the multidecadal oscillatory variations of the thermohaline circulation are active, the first
and second EOF patterns for the North Atlantic dynamic topography have predictability time scales on the order of 10–20 y,
whereas EOF-1 of SST has predictability time scales of 5–7 y. When the thermohaline variability has weak multidecadal power,
the Hasselmann mechanism is dominant and the predictability is reduced by at least a factor of two. When the third mechanism
is in an extreme phase, the North Atlantic dynamic topography patterns realize a 10–20 year predictability time scale. Additional
analysis of SST in the Greenland Sea, in a region associated with the southward propagating fresh water anomalies, indicates
the potential for decadal scale predictability for this high latitude region as well. The model calculations also allow insight
into regional variations of predictability, which might be useful information for the design of a monitoring system for the
North Atlantic. Predictability appears to break down most rapidly in regions of active convection in the high-latitude regions
of the North Atlantic.
Received: 28 October 1996 / Accepted: 21 March 1997 相似文献
928.
TH. Blumenstock H. Fisher A. Friedle F. Hase P. Thomas 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》1997,26(3):311-321
During SESAME phase I ground-based FTIR measurements were performed atEsrange near Kiruna, Sweden, from 28 January to 26 March 1994. Zenith columnamounts of ClONO2, HCl, HF, HNO3,O3, N2O, CH4, and CFC-12 werederived from solar absorption spectra. Time series of ClONO2and HCl indicate a chlorine activation at the end of January and around 1March. On 1 March a very low amount of HCl of 2.09times; 1015molec. cm-2 was detected, probably caused by a second chlorineactivation phase starting from an already decreased amount of HCl. The ratioof column amounts of HCl to ClONO2 decreased inside the vortexfrom about 1 in January to 0.4 in late March compared to values of about 2outside the vortex. Although the Arctic stratosphere was rather warm in winter1993/94 and PSCs occurred seldom, chlorine partitioning into its reservoirspecies HCl and ClONO2 changed during that winter andClONO2 is the major chlorine reservoir at the end of thewinter as in cold winters like 1991/92 and 1994/95. 相似文献
929.
S. Solberg T. Krognes F. Stordal OØ Hov H. J. Beine D. A. Jaffe K. C. Clemitshaw S. A. Penkett 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》1997,28(1-3):209-225
Simultaneousindependent measurements of NOy and NOx(NOx= NO + NO2) by high-sensitivitychemiluminescence systems and of PAN (peroxyacetylnitrate) and PPN (peroxypropionyl nitrate) by GC-ECDwere made at Spitsbergen in the Norwegian Arcticduring the first half year of 1994. The average mixingratio of the sum of PAN and PPN (denoted PANs)increased from around 150 pptv in early winter to amaximum of around 500 pptv in late March, whereasepisodic peak values reached 800 pptv. This occurredsimultaneously with a maximum in ozone which increasedto 45–50 ppbv in March–April. The average NOxmixing ratio was 27 pptv and did not show any cyclethrough the period. The NOy mixing ratio showeda maximum in late March, while the difference betweenNOy and PAN decreased during spring. This is anindication of the dominance of PAN in the NOybudget in the Arctic, but possible changes in theefficiency of the NOy converter could alsocontribute to this. Although most PAN in theArctic is believed to be due to long range transport,the observations indicate local loss and formationrates of up to 1–2 pptv h-1 in April–May.Measurements of carbonyl compounds suggest thatacetaldehyde was the dominant, local precursor ofPAN.Now at 1. 相似文献
930.
Summary The relation between the air temperature and the global solar radiation, which can be conveniently represented by the three characteristics: mean, amplitude and phase lag of the first harmonic of global radiation and air temperatures. A good correlation between the air temperature and the solar radiation has been found when the phase lag between them is nearly of 30 days.With 6 Figures 相似文献