Mechanisms of shrubland expansion: land use,climate or CO2?

Encroachment of trees and shrubs into grasslands and the thicketization of savannas has occurred worldwide over the past century. These changes in vegetation structure are potentially relevant to climatic change as they may be indicative of historical shifts in climate and as they may influence biophysical aspects of land surface-atmosphere interactions and alter carbon and nitrogen cycles. Traditional explanations offered to account for the historic displacement of grasses by woody plants in many arid and semi-arid ecosystems have centered around changes in climatic, livestock grazing and fire regimes. More recently, it has been suggested that the increase in atmospheric CO₂ since the industrial revolution has been the driving force. In this paper we evaluate the CO₂ enrichment hypotheses and argue that historic, positive correlations between woody plant expansion and atmospheric CO₂ are not cause and effect.Please direct all correspondence to the senior author.     

Global plasmaspheric TEC and its relative contribution to GPS TEC

The plasmaspheric electron content is directly estimated from the global positioning system (GPS) data onboard JASON-1 Satellite for the first time. Similarly, the ground-based GPS total electron content (TEC) is estimated using about 1000 GPS receivers distributed around the globe. The relative contribution of the plasmaspheric electron content to the ground-based GPS TEC is then estimated globally using these two independent simultaneous measurements; namely ground-based GPS TEC and JASON-1 GPS TEC. Results presented here include data from 3 months of different solar cycle conditions (October 2003, May 2005, and December 2006). The global comparison between the two independent measurements was performed by dividing the data into three different regions; equatorial, mid- and high-latitude regions. This division is essential as the GPS raypaths traverse different distances through the plasmasphere at different latitudes. The raypath length through the plasmasphere decreases as latitude increases. The relative contribution of the plasmaspheric electron content exhibits a diurnal variation that depends on latitude with minimum contribution (10%) during daytime and maximum (up to 60%) at night. The contribution is also maximum at the equatorial region where the GPS raypath traverses a long distance through the plasmasphere compared to its length in mid- and high-latitude regions. Finally, the solar cycle variation of plasmaspheric contribution is also reported globally.     

The effects of beach nourishment on the sandy-beach amphipod Exoediceros fossor: impact and recovery in Botany Bay, New South Wales, Australia

Beach nourishment is increasingly being implemented to address problems of erosion. However, the ecological consequences of nourishment are poorly understood, especially in Australia. In Botany Bay, sand was piped from an intertidal borrow area at Elephant's Trunk to nourish the nearby eroding beach at Towra Point. The effects on an intertidal exoedicerotid amphipod, Exoediceros fossor (Stimpson, 1856), were examined using a beyond-BACI (Before–After, Control–Impact) sampling design. Sampling was conducted before and after engineering operations at sites within the borrow and nourishment locations and multiple control locations. Hypotheses concerning impact and recovery were tested using asymmetrical ANOVAs and two-tailed F-tests. These examined the effects on abundance and spatial variability, respectively. The impact of the engineering operations on abundance was very large at both borrow and nourishment locations. However, recovery started within several weeks and, using space × time interactions as a criterion, appeared to be complete within a year. This conclusion is made cautiously because of low statistical power and because other criteria for recovery suggest that it was not complete at some sites. As beach erosion is likely to increase in severity with rising sea levels and greater storm surges associated with climate change, management authorities will need a better understanding of the ecological effects of beach nourishment.     

Oscillations of galactic cosmic rays and solar indices before the arrival of relativistic solar protons

Using modern wavelet analysis techniques, we have made an attempt to search for oscillations of intensity of galactic cosmic rays (GCR), sunspot numbers (SS) and magnitudes of coronal index (CI) implying that the time evolution of those oscillations may serve as a precursor of Ground Level Enhancements (GLEs) of solar cosmic rays (SCR). From total number of 70 GLEs registered in 1942–2006, the four large events — 23 February 1956, 14 July 2000, 28 October 2003, and 20 January 2005 — have been chosen for our study. By the results of our analysis, it was shown that a frequency of oscillations of GCR decreases as time approaches to the event day. We have also studied a behaviour of common periodicities of GCR and SCR within the time interval of individual GLE. The oscillations of GLE occurrence rate (OR) at different stages of the solar activity (SA) cycle is of special interest. We have found some common periodicities of SS and CI in the range of short (2.8, 5.2, 27 and 60 days), medium (0.3, 0.5, 0.7, 1.3, 1.8 and 3.2 years) and long (4.6 and 11.0 years) periods. Short and medium periodicities, in general, are rather concentrated around the maxima of solar cycles and display the complex phase relations. When comparing these results with the behaviour of OR oscillations we found that the period of 11 years is dominating (controlling); it is continuous over the entire time interval of 1942–2006, and during all this time it displays high synchronization and clear linear ratios between the phases of oscillations of η, SS and CI. It implies that SCR generation is not isolated stochastic phenomena characteristic exclusively for chromospheric and/or coronal structures. In fact, this process may have global features and involve large regions in the Sun’s atmosphere.     

上海热浪与健康监测预警系统

用1989～1998年上海逐日4次气象观测资料,应用美国特拉华大学的SSC天气分类方法确定逐日天气类型,形成了10年逐日天气类型日历。并通过天气类型与死亡率的对比分析,确定MT+类型是上海地区形成热浪的“侵人型”气团,是具有最高死亡率的天气类型。采用逐步回归方法建立了MT+类型下因受热浪侵袭而超正常死亡数的回归方程。在此基础上建立了上海热浪与健康监测预警系统。通过1999年气象和死亡实况资料检验,系统对热浪及因此引起的死亡具有较好的监测和预警效果。     

Concerning the multiscale structure of solar convection

The discrete scale spectrum of the convective flows observed on the Sun has not yet received a convincing explanation. Here, an attempt is made to find conditions for the coexistence of convective flows on various scales in a horizontal fluid layer heated from below, where the thermal diffusivity varies with temperature in such a way that the static temperature difference across a thin sublayer near the upper surface of the layer is many times larger than the temperature variation across the remainder of the layer. The equations of two-dimensional thermal convection are solved numerically in an extended Boussinesq approximation, which admits thermal-diffusivity variations. The no-slip conditions are assumed at the lower boundary of the layer; either no-slip or free-slip conditions, at the upper boundary. In the former case, stable large-scale rolls develop, which experience small deformations under the action of small structures concentrated near the horizontal boundaries. In the latter case, the flow structure is highly variable, different flow scales dominate at different heights, the number of large rolls is not constant, and a sort of intermittency occurs: the enhancement of the small-scale flow component is frequently accompanied by the weakening of the large-scale one, and vice versa. The scale-splitting effects revealed here should manifest themselves in one way or another in the structure of solar convection.     

Paleomagnetic Excursions Recorded in the Yanchi Playa in Middle Hexi Corridor, NW China Since the Last Interglacial

Paleomagnetic determinations on lithologieal profiles of two paralleled long drillin gcores covering the past 130 kyr B.P., GT40 and GT60,from the Yanchi Playa in the arid Northwestern China indicate that a series of pronounced paleomagnetic excursions have been documented. By correlating our results with published regional and worldwide reports 4 excursion events out of 10 apparent reversal signals (labeled from GT-1 to GT-10) were identified as excursion events coeval with the Mono Lake Event (28.4 kyr-25.8 kyr), Laschamp Event (43.3 kyr-40.5kyr), Gaotai Event (82.8 kyr-72.4 kyr) and the Blake Event (127.4 kyr-113.3 kyr), respectively. GT-9 correlates with the above-mentioned Gaotai Event,GT-7 and GT-6 correspond to two stages of the Laschamp Event and GT-5 to the Mono Lake Event. It is noteworthy that the so-called Gaotai Event has not been reported as a pronounced paleomagnetic excursion in the Northwestern China. Every magnetic excursion event corresponds to paleointensity minima, anteceding those established abrupt paleoclimatic change events, such as the Younger Drays and the Heinrich Events (H1-H6). Here, we tentatively propose that these geomagnetic excursions/reversals can be viewed as precursors to climate abruptness. During the transitional stages when the earth‘s magnetic field shifted between a temporal normal and a negative period, the earth‘s magnetic paleointensity fell correspondingly to a pair of minima. Although more precise chronology and more convincing rock magnetic parameter determinations are essentially required for further interpretation of their intricate coupling mechanism, these results may have revealed, to some extent, that the earth‘s incessantly changing magnetic field exerts an strong influence on the onset of saw-tooth shaped abrupt climate oscillations through certain feedback chains in arid Central Asia or even North Hemispheric high latitude regions.     

西格陵兰Disko湾表层沉积硅藻组合研究

本文分析了西格陵兰Disko湾的表层沉积物硅藻,发现并统计了分属于39个属的78个硅藻种及其变种。应用对应分析方法,对Disko湾表层沉积硅藻组合进行了分类:组合Ⅰ为Fragilariopsis cylindrus-Fragilariopsis oceanica组合,主要分布在西格陵兰Disko湾南部的近岸和外海处;组合Ⅱ为Detonula confervaceae休眠孢子-Thalassiosira nordenskioeldii组合,都分布在Dis-ko湾北部海域。其中,根据海流等环境要素的不同,组合Ⅰ又可进一步划分为两个亚区:组合Ⅰa为F.cylindrus-F.oceanica-Pauliella taeniata组合,主要分布于沿岸海区;组合Ⅰb为F.cy-lindrus-F.oceanica-Thalassiosira antarcticavar.borealis休眠孢子-Thalassiosiracf.antarcticavar.borealis组合,分布于外海区域。     

Effects of nonlinear model response on allocation of streamflow depletion: exemplified by the case of Beaver Creek,USA

Anomalies found when apportioning responsibility for streamflow depletion are examined. The anomalies arise when responsibility is assigned to the two states that contribute to depletion of Beaver Creek in the Republican River Basin in the United States. The apportioning procedure for this basin presumes that the sum of streamflow depletions, computed by comparing simulation model runs with and without groundwater pumping from individual states, approximates the streamflow depletion when both states are pumping. In the case study presented here, this presumed superposition fails dramatically. The stream drying and aquifer-storage depletion, as represented in the simulation model used for allocation, are examined in detail to understand the hydrologic and numerical basis for the severe nonlinear response. Users of apportioning procedures that rely on superposition should be aware of the presence and likely magnitude of nonlinear responses in modeling tools.