Multiseason evaluation of the MM5, COAMPS and WRF over southeast United States

Three models, MM5, COAMPS, and WRF, have been applied for the warm season in 2003 and the cool season in 2003?C2004 to evaluate their performances. All models run over the same domain area covering the north Gulf Mexico and southeastern United States (US) region with the same spatial resolution of 27?km. It was found that the temporal variations of the mean error distribution and strength at 24 and 36?h were rather weak for surface temperature, sea level pressure, and surface wind speed for all models. A warm bias in surface temperature forecasts dominated over land during the warm season, whereas a cool bias existed during the cool season. The MM5 and WRF produced negative biases of sea level pressure during the warm season and positive biases during the cool season while the COAMPS yielded a similar distribution of sea level pressure biases during both seasons. During both seasons, similar surface wind speed biases produced by each model included a high wind speed forecast over most areas by MM5 while the COAMPS and WRF yielded weak surface winds over the western Plains and stronger surface winds over the eastern Plains. Root-mean-squared errors revealed that the forecast of surface temperature, sea level pressure, and surface wind speed were degraded with the increase of forecast time. For rainfall evaluation, it was found that the MM5 underpredicted seasonal precipitation while the COAMPS and WRF overpredicted. The bias scores revealed that the MM5 yielded an underprediction of the coverage of precipitation areas, especially for heavier rainfall events. The MM5 presented the lower threat score at lighter rainfall events compared to the COAMPS and WRF. For moderate and heavier thresholds, all models lacked forecast accuracy. The WRF accuracy in predicting precipitation was heavily dependent upon the performance of the selected cumulus parameterization scheme. Use of the Grell?CDevenyi and Bette?CMiller?CJanjic schemes helps suppress precipitation overprediction.     

Ground-based observations of auroras under the sunlit conditions

The results of the ground-based optical observations of sunlit auroras, performed at Lovozero and Apatity observatories on April 10 (event 1) and April 27, 2007(event 2), are presented. The observations were performed in the (OI) 557.7 nm emission, using a new equipment based on a Fabry-Pérot interferometer connected to a PhotonMAX CCD camera. During event 1, the observations were performed in the Harang discontinuity region at a low magnetic disturbance. It has been indicated that an auroral arc was located in the polar part of the eastward electrojet, and the arc position coincides with the equatorward boundary of structured precipitation (b2e). During event 2, auroras were observed within the average statistical boundaries of the auroral oval and the region of structured precipitation under the conditions of rather high geomagnetic activity. However, during the period of low geomagnetic activity, discrete auroras were registered at a geomagnetic latitude of ~64° on that day, which is 3°—4° equatorward of the structured precipitation region. Such a low latitudinal position of auroras can be explained by the effect of a high solar wind velocity, which was ~580 km/s during the period of observations.     

Distribution of hydrate on Europa: Further evidence for sulfuric acid hydrate

Sulfuric acid hydrate has been proposed as an important species on Europa's surface, the acid being produced by radiolysis of surficial sulfur compounds. We investigated the spectral properties of disordered and crystalline forms of sulfuric acid and suggest that the hydration properties of Europa's hypothesized sulfuric acid lie between two end members: liquid sulfuric acid and its higher crystalline hydrates. The spectra of these end members are similar except for spectral shifts at the band edges. We measured the optical constants of sulfuric acid octahydrate and used these with simple radiative transfer calculations to fit Europa spectra obtained by Galileo's Near Infrared Mapping Spectrometer (NIMS). The global distribution of the hydrate that we associate here with hydrated sulfuric acid shows a strong trailing-side enhancement with a maximum fractional hydrate abundance of 90% by volume, corresponding to a sulfur atom to water molecule ratio of 10%. The hydrate concentration spatially correlates with the ultraviolet and visible absorption of the surface and with the sulfur dioxide concentration. The asymmetric global distribution is consistent with Iogenic plasma ion implantation as the source of the sulfur, possibly modified by electron irradiation and sputtering effects. The variegated distribution also correlates with geologic forms. A high spatial resolution image shows resolved lineae with less hydrate appearing within the lineae than in nearby crustal material. The low concentration of hydrated material in these lineae argues against their conveying sulfurous material to the surface from the putative ocean.     

TEM study of a special grain boundary in a synthetic K-feldspar bicrystal: Manebach Twin

 A monoclinic KAlSi₃O₈ feldspar Manebach twin boundary was synthesized by diffusion bonding and examined using high-resolution transmission electron microscopy. The sharp (001) twin boundary is straight and free of strain. The boundary width is smaller than d₀₀₁. There is no rigid body shift observed at the twin boundary, and the feldspar structure is arranged symmetrically across (001). The twin boundary structure consists of bridged tetrahedral crankshafts, which are characteristic of the feldspar lattice. The grain boundary structure is in good agreement with the geometrical model of Taylor et al. (1934). The grain boundary composition of K_1/2H_1/2AlSi₃O₈ differs from their model. Received: 13 February 2002 / Accepted: 24 December 2002 Acknowledgements We thank M. Rühle, S. Hutt, J. Mayer, A. Strecker and U. Salzberger at MPI, Stuttgart, for their support and valuable advice in preparing TEM sections of bicrystals.     

Inverse Analysis of Deep Excavation Using Differential Evolution Algorithm

This paper presents the applications of the differential evolution (DE) algorithm in back analysis of soil parameters for deep excavation problems. A computer code, named Python‐based DE, is developed and incorporated into the commercial finite element software ABAQUS, with a parallel computing technique to run an FE analysis for all trail vectors of one generation in DE in multiple cores of a cluster, which dramatically reduces the computational time. A synthetic case and a well‐instrumented real case, that is, the Taipei National Enterprise Center (TNEC) project, are used to demonstrate the capability of the proposed back‐analysis procedure. Results show that multiple soil parameters are well identified by back analysis using a DE optimization algorithm for highly nonlinear problems. For the synthetic excavation case, the back‐analyzed parameters are basically identical to the input parameters that are used to generate synthetic response of wall deflection. For the TNEC case with a total of nine parameters to be back analyzed, the relative errors of wall deflection for the last three stages are 2.2, 1.1, and 1.0%, respectively. Robustness of the back‐estimated parameters is further illustrated by a forward prediction. The wall deflection in the subsequent stages can be satisfactorily predicted using the back‐analyzed soil parameters at early stages. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

School vulnerability to disaster: examination of school closure,demographic, and exposure factors in Hurricane Ike’s wind swath

Damage and destruction to schools from climate-related disasters can have significant and lasting impacts on curriculum and educational programs, educational attainment, and future income-earning potential of affected students. As such, assessing the potential impact of hazards is crucial to the ability of individuals, households, and communities to respond to natural disasters, extreme events, and economic crises. Yet, few studies have focused on assessing the vulnerability of schools in coastal regions of the USA. Using Hurricane Ike’s tropical storm wind swath in the State of Texas as our study area, we: (1) assessed the spatial distribution patterns of school closures and (2) tested the relationship between school closure and vulnerability factors (namely physical exposure and school demographics) using zero-inflated negative binomial regression models. The regression results show that higher probabilities of hurricane strikes, more urbanized school districts, and school districts located in coastal counties on the right side of Ike’s path have significant positive associations with an increase in the number of school closure days. Socioeconomic characteristics were not significantly associated with the number of days closed, with the exception of proportion of Hispanic youth in schools, a result which is not supported by the social vulnerability literature. At a practical level, understanding how hurricanes may adversely impact schools is important for developing appropriate preparedness, mitigation, recovery, and adaptation strategies. For example, school districts on the right side of the hurricane track can plan in advance for potential damage and destruction. The ability of a community to respond to future natural disasters, extreme events, and economic crises depends in part on mitigating these adverse effects.     

Effect of polychromatic X‐ray microtomography imaging on the amino acid content of the Murchison CM chondrite

X‐ray microcomputed tomography (μCT) is a useful means of characterizing cosmochemical samples such as meteorites or robotically returned samples. However, there are occasional concerns that the use of μCT may be detrimental to the organic components of a chondrite. Small organic compounds such as amino acids comprise up to ~10% of the total solvent extractable carbon in CM carbonaceous chondrites. We irradiated three samples of the Murchison CM carbonaceous chondrite under conditions akin to and harsher than those typically used during typical benchtop X‐ray μCT imaging experiments to determine if detectable changes in the amino acid abundance and distribution relative to a nonexposed Murchison control sample occurred. After subjecting three meteorite samples to ionizing radiation dosages between ~300 Gray (Gy) and 3 kGy with bremstrahlung X‐rays, we analyzed the amino acid content of each sample. Within sampling and analytical errors, we cannot discern differences in the amino acid abundances and amino acid enantiomeric ratios when comparing the control samples (nonexposed Murchison) and the irradiated samples. We conclude that a polychromatic X‐ray μCT experiment does not alter the abundances of amino acids to a degree greater than how well those abundances are measured with our techniques and therefore any damage to amino acids is minimal.     

Thermal expansion and spontaneous strain associated with the normal-incommensurate phase transition in melilites

The linear thermal expansions of åkermanite (Ca₂MgSi₂O₇) and hardystonite (Ca₂ZnSi₂O₇) have been measured across the normal-incommensurate phase transition for both materials. Least-squares fitting of the high temperature (normal phase) data yields expressions linear in T for the coefficients of instantaneous linear thermal expansion, $$\alpha _1 = \frac{1}{l}\frac{{dl}}{{dT}}$$ for åkermanite: $$\begin{gathered} \alpha _{[100]} = 6.901(2) \times 10^{ - 6} + 1.834(2) \times 10^{ - 8} T \hfill \\ \alpha _{[100]} = - 2.856(1) \times 10^{ - 6} + 11.280(1) \times 10^{ - 8} T \hfill \\ \end{gathered} $$ for hardystonite: $$\begin{gathered} \alpha _{[100]} = 15.562(5) \times 10^{ - 6} - 1.478(3) \times 10^{ - 8} T \hfill \\ \alpha _{[100]} = - 11.115(5) \times 10^{ - 6} + 11.326(3) \times 10^{ - 8} T \hfill \\ \end{gathered} $$ Although there is considerable strain for temperatures within 10° C of the phase transition, suggestive of a high-order phase transition, there appears to be a finite ΔV of transition, and the phase transition is classed as “weakly first order”.     

Paleoearthquakes in the Uimon basin (Gorny Altai)

Paleoseismological studies confirm that the Uimon basin is thrust by its northern mountain border along the active South Terekta fault. The latest motion along the fault in the 7-8th centuries AD induced an earthquake with a magnitude of M_w= 7.4-7.7 and a shaking intensity of I = 9-11 on the MSK-64 scale. The same fault generated another event (M > 7, I = 9-10), possibly, about 16 kyr ago, which triggered gravity sliding. The rockslide dammed the Uimon valley and produced a lake, where lacustrine deposition began about 14 ± 1 kyr ago, and a later M > 7 (I = 9-10) earthquake at ~ 6 ka caused the dam collapse and the lake drainage. Traces of much older earthquakes that occurred within the Uimon basin are detectable from secondary deformation structures (seismites) in soft sediments deposited during the drainage of a Late Pleistocene ice-dammed lake between 100 and 90 ka and in ~ 77 ka alluvium. The magnitude and intensity of these paleoearthquakes were at least M > 5.0-5.5 and I > 6-7.