Differences in flood hazard projections in Europe – their causes and consequences for decision making

This paper interprets differences in flood hazard projections over Europe and identifies likely sources of discrepancy. Further, it discusses potential implications of these differences for flood risk reduction and adaptation to climate change. The discrepancy in flood hazard projections raises caution, especially among decision makers in charge of water resources management, flood risk reduction, and climate change adaptation at regional to local scales. Because it is naïve to expect availability of trustworthy quantitative projections of future flood hazard, in order to reduce flood risk one should focus attention on mapping of current and future risks and vulnerability hotspots and improve the situation there. Although an intercomparison of flood hazard projections is done in this paper and differences are identified and interpreted, it does not seems possible to recommend which large-scale studies may be considered most credible in particular areas of Europe.

EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis

ASSOCIATE EDITOR not assigned     

Urban stormwater thermal gene expression models for protection of sensitive receiving streams

Thermal impact of typical high‐density residential, industrial, and commercial land uses is a major concern for the health of aquatic life in urban watersheds, especially in smaller, cold, and cool‐water streams. This is the first study of its kind that provides simple easy‐to‐use equations, developed using gene expression programming (GEP) that can guide the assessment and the design of urban stormwater management systems to protect thermally sensitive receiving streams. We developed 3 GEP models using data collected during 3 years (2009–2011) from 4 urban catchments; the first GEP model predicts event mean temperature at the inlet of the pond; the second model predicts the stormwater temperature at the outlet of the pond; and the third model predicts the temperature of the stormwater after flowing through a cooling trench and before discharging to the receiving stream. The new models have high correlation coefficients of 0.90–0.94 and low prediction uncertainty of less than 4% of the median value of the predicted runoff temperatures. Sensitivity analysis shows that climatic factors have the highest influence on the thermal enrichment followed by the catchment characteristics and the key design variables of the stormwater pond and the cooling trench. The general method presented here is easily transferable to other regions of the world (but not necessarily the exact equations developed here); also through sensitivity and parametric analysis, we gained insight on the key factors and their relative importance in modelling thermal enrichment of urban stromwater runoff.     

39Ar recoil losses and presolar ages in Allende inclusions

Ar analyses are reported for five coarse-grained, Ca-Al-rich inclusions from the Allende meteorite. The samples were neutron-irradiated in individual evacuated ampoules, and the Ar gas in the ampoules as well as the samples was analyzed. A large fraction (up to 60%) of the³⁹Ar from³⁹K (n, p) reactions was lost out of the inclusions into the ampoules. The³⁹Ar losses resulted in substantial increases in the apparent⁴⁰Ar-³⁹Ar ages of the samples.³⁹Ar recoil loss during neutron-irradiation is a major effect and must be accounted for in⁴⁰Ar-³⁹Ar dating. All of the Allende inclusions studied contained substantial trapped³⁶Ar. The origin of the trapped³⁶Ar is unknown, and the possible presence of trapped⁴⁰Ar cannot be excluded. Ar measurements on Allende inclusions which have yielded anomalously old ages must be re-examined in the context of³⁹Ar recoil loss and possible contributions of trapped⁴⁰Ar. Allende inclusions appear on both accounts to be poor candidates to search for relicts of presolar materials with well-defined K/Ar ages.     

The continuity equation slope model and basal boundary conditions: A further comment

Intermediates between a fixed basal elevation and a constant rate of downcutting throughout the slope profile are perhaps more realistic than either extreme case.     

Evidence for long-term asymmetries in the Earth's magnetic field and possible implications for dynamo theories

Paleomagnetic data indicate that there is a north-south asymmetry in the time-averaged magnetic field and that there are small but significant differences between the normal and reverse polarity states. The geographical variation is most likely due to spatial variation in the boundary conditions at the core-mantle interface. The difference in the magnetic fields of the reverse and normal polarity states can be modeled in terms of a “standing field”. The paleomagnetic data are insufficient to determine whether or not this “standing field” is of core origin. However, consideration of mechanisms, including thermoelectric currents, indicates that there probably are important differences in core processes between the two polarity states. At first glance this interpretation is difficult to reconcile with the fact that the magnetic induction equation is antisymmetric with respect to the magnetic field. A way around this problem is the possibility that only certain transitions are allowed between acceptable eigenstates in dynamo models of the Earth's magnetic field.     

Variations in plasma parameters and magnetic field upon magnetopause crossing at the main phase maximum of the magnetic storm of November 14, 2012

Measurements of the plasma parameters and magnetic field upon magnetopause crossings by the THEMIS-А satellite during the large magnetic storm of November 14, 2012, are analyzed. The main specific feature of this event is the magnetopause crossing at the time of the magnetic-storm maximum. An imbalance of total pressure on the magnetopause reaching up to ~40% has been observed. An abrupt turn of the magnetic field immediately on the magnetopause is recorded. Inside the magnetosphere, plasma motions have been observed, both along the magnetopause and inward, at velocities of ~100–300 km/s. Variations in geomagnetic parameters are analyzed before and after the crossing. It is shown that specific features of the observed crossing may be associated with a sharp change in the magnetospheric current systems during the magnetospheric substorm.     

Retrieving earthquake signature in grace gravity solutions

The GRACE satellites have been orbiting the Earth since 2002, monitoring the time variable gravity field. Some of the observed fluctuations are due to geodynamic causes, but they are often hidden in the complex signal, composed of hydrology, ocean, atmosphere, and geodynamics, the signal of geodynamic origin being usually the smallest. In addition, dealiasing residuals and noise make the separation of the signal from the different causes more difficult. We proposed a method based on the Empirical Orthogonal Function decomposition to extract the signal of physical origin, under the hypothesis that the physical signal is spatially more consistent than the noise and aliasing incomplete correction. We used synthetic geoid variations associated with earthquakes located at nearly 2000 positions at the Earth surface, based on several examples of large actual subduction events. We show that, with the present day accuracy, we can retrieve the geoid variations associated with more than 98 per cent of the earthquakes of magnitude 9 or above, around 60 per cent for magnitude 8.8, 40 per cent for magnitude 8.6 and 33 per cent for magnitude 8.3. Some events, with the right properties and location, can be detected with magnitude as low as 8. We then applied the method to the GRACE solutions, and retrieved the Hokkaido event (2003) and the Sumatra event (2004), which is in agreement with the retrieval rates mentioned here above.     

Structure,Matter Composition,and Deep Structure of the Oceanic Slope of the Central Kuril Islands: New Evidence

The results of reinterpretation of the geophysical data obtained during the study of the central sector of the Kuril Island Arc (2005–2010) are reported. The new boundaries of the shallow bedding of the basement and its block uplifts of varied composition are defined within the previously discovered zone of tectonic stretching and destruction of the Vityaz submarine ridge and interarc trough. Interblock depressions filled with sedimentary and volcanogenic-sedimentary rocks are distinguished. Areas represented by volcanoplutonic complexes including basic and sialic series (up to granite) are distinguished within the unbroken basement of the Vityaz Ridge. Intrusions and volcanic edifices composed of basic rocks are registered on the whole area studied. The relationship between the formation of the destruction zone and the geodynamic processes in the mantle is illustrated by the map of the Moho relief and structural-density model of the Earth’s crust.     

Neue Ergebnisse zur Tektonik der Allgäuer und Vilser Alpen

Zusammenfassung Eine Neuuntersuchung der Tektonik in den Vilser Alpen und im Hochvogelgebiet, wo die Frage seit langer Zeit diskutiert wird, ob dort die Allgäu- und Lechtal-Decke getrennte Einheiten bilden, oder stratigraphisch untrennbar zusammenhängen, erbrachte eine eindeutige Entscheidung für den Deckenbau. Der Verlauf der Deckengrenze konnte zwischen Hochvogel und Hohenschwangauer Alpen präzisiert werden. Der interne Falten- und Schuppenbau der Lechtal-Decke hat nirgends zur Bildung von tektonisch tieferen Teildekken geführt, die internen Verschuppungen besitzen nur ein geringes Ausmaß.

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A new investigation of the tectonics in the Vilser Alps and in the Mt. Hochvogel area where since a long time a discussion was going on if the thrust sheets of Allgäu and Lechtal-Decke are separate units or connected by stratigraphic sequences, a definite decision could be made in favour of the nappe structure in this part of the Northern Calcareous Alps. The internal structure of the Lechtal-Decke thrust sheet is characterized by local imbricate structure which originate from sheared folds.

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Résumé On a dicuté depuis longtemps dans les Vilser Alpen et dans la région du Mont Hochvogel le problème, si les nappes de Allgäu et Lechtal-Decke sont des unités separées ou qu'ils forment une partie inséparable par des séquences stratigraphiques. Une nouvelle examen de la tectonique a affirmé la structure de nappes dans cette région des Alpes Calcaires du Nord. La structure intérieure de la nappe de Lechtal-Decke est caracterisée par une structure écaillée locale, qui se developpe de plis cisaillés.

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