THE CORRELATION BETWEEN SUNSPOT AND CORONAL HOLE CYCLES AND A FORECAST OF THE MAXIMUM OF SUNSPOT CYCLE 23

We have shown in previous papers that a close relationship exists between the evolution of polar coronal hole area, estimated from K-coronameter observations, and the Wolf sunspot number, with a time lag of about half a solar cycle. In this paper we study the same relationship, but with the total coronal hole area at the base of the corona as obtained from a potential field model of the coronal magnetic field, which provides a more complete series of about three solar cycles. We confirm the relationship for the two last cycles and find that the forward time shift in the coronal hole area for the best correlation with sunspot number is almost the same for cycles 21 and 22, and this shift is also the time between peaks in both series. We use this result to make an early prediction of the time and size of the sunspot maximum for solar cycle 23, and find that this should occur early in 2001 and have a magnitude of about 190, similar to that of the two previous sunspot cycles.     

Effects of mass transfer on an oscillating free-convection flow in the Stokes's problem past an infinite porous vertical limiting surface with heat sources and variable suction

An analysis of the effects of the mass transfer on the unsteady free-convection flow of a viscous incompressible fluid, past an impulsively started infinite porous vertical limiting surface with heat sources is presented, when the free-stream velocity and the suction velocity, are oscillating in the time about constant mean values. Approximate solutions for the coupled nonlinear equations are derived for the mean velocity, the mean temperature, the mean skin-friction, and the mean rate of heat transfer. All the above quantities are shown graphically followed, by a discussion.     

Understanding the surface hydrology of the Lake Eyre Basin: Part 1—Rainfall

This is the first of two papers that describe the surface hydrology of the Lake Eyre Basin (LEB) (1,140,000 km²) in central Australia and compares some key characteristics with those observed from arid regions globally. This paper concentrates on annual rainfall, whereas the second paper is devoted to streamflow. The first part describes the LEB's climate (arid to semi-arid), which is dominated by a subtropical high pressure ridge stretching latitudinally across central Australia. Then follow major analyses that include the characteristics of rainfall, wet and dry spell lengths and cumulative surpluses and deficiencies, rainfall trends and intra- and inter-decadal fluctuations, and the relationship between rainfall and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The paper concludes with six conclusions, the key ones being: the variability of the annual rainfall (based on the coefficient of variation) in the LEB is approximately 60% greater than that found for stations located in arid regions in the rest of the world; there is a bias towards longer lengths of dry years than observed in the rest of Australia; and, there is a significant lag correlation between rainfall and ENSO, particularly in the east and in the latter part of a year.     

Scaling of response spectrum and duration for aftershocks

Aftershocks have the potential to cause collapse of a structure that has been already damaged by the preceding main shock. Seismic safety of a structure should therefore be ascertained through a damage analysis using the anticipated main shock and few larger-aftershock motions. Simulation of aftershock motions needs characterization of the seismic hazard due to aftershocks, and therefore it will be useful to develop a conditional scaling model that can predict the response spectrum of an anticipated aftershock motion consistent with the design spectrum of the main shock motion anticipated at the same station. In this study an attempt is made to develop a conditional scaling model for the pseudo spectral velocity spectrum via linear regression analysis on the aftershock and main shock recordings for the 1999 Chi–Chi earthquake. It is shown that it may be possible to obtain a simpler and approximate version of the conditional model from an unconditional model. Damage-causing potential of a ground motion also depends on its strong motion duration (SMD) and therefore a conditional scaling model is developed for SMD of the aftershock motion in several narrow frequency-bands. The model is developed for the larger-aftershock motions and it is shown that a reasonable replacement of such a model may be obtainable directly from an unconditional model. Finally, a simple weighted averaging scheme is proposed to obtain the composite SMD from the SMDs for different frequency bands by using the pseudo spectral acceleration spectrum of the motion.     

A photometric study of the polar ring galaxy UGC 5600

We analyze our BVR _c photometry for UGC 5600, a candidate polar ring galaxy, obtained with the 6-m telescope. We have confirmed the existence of an inner polar ring and show that the outer ring-shaped structure represents spiral arms; i.e., UGC 5600 belongs to the rare class of gas-rich spiral galaxies with inner polar rings.     

Magnesium-iron compositional variance in hornblende pyroxene granulites

Hornblende-orthopyroxene-calcic pyroxene-plagioclase (andesine-labradorite) — magnetite-ilmenite±quartz assemblages are evidently the most common granulite facies representatives of basic rocks throughout the world, and they must represent a variance of more than one. Ramberg (1948) invoked an additional degree of freedom arising out of unequal fractionation of Mg and Fe in the ferromagnesian silicates in such rocks. This is examined in detail on the basis of chemical data on twentytwo hornblende-orthopyroxenecalcic pyroxene triads, half of them from the type charnockite area near Madras.Theoretical consideration of a magnesium-iron distribution model shows that in quartz-bearing hornblende pyroxene granulites, the Mg/Mg+Fe ratios of hornblende, orthopyroxene and calcic pyroxene are uniquely determined by temperature at constant pressure. But these assemblages contain quartz rarely and Mg-Fe distribution among the three can be best described by three exchange equilibria where, at constant temperature, there is a fixed relation between the Mg/Mg+Fe ratios of the minerals. Among these, the exchange equilibria between hornblende-orthopyroxene and hornblende-calcic pyroxene appear to be interdependent; however, they are known to be significantly modified by varying tetrahedral aluminium contents of hornblendes. Comparison of molecular Mg/(Mg+Fe) ratios of hornblendes and parent rocks strongly points to an absence of Mg-Fe compositional variance in the total system, a petrologically important corollary being that the hornblendes in these rocks are highly unlikely to be secondary after pyroxenes. The general variance of the assemblages is also discussed.     

Surface Oscillations of a Free-Falling Droplet of an Ideal Fluid

According to observations, drops freely falling in the air under the action of gravity are deformed and oscillate in a wide range of frequencies and scales. A technique for calculating surface axisymmetric oscillations of a deformed droplet in the linear approximation under the assumption that the amplitude and wavelength are small when compared to the droplet diameter is proposed. The basic form of an axisymmetric droplet is chosen from observations. The calculation results for surface oscillations agree with recorded data on the varying shape of water droplets falling in the air.