On the use of ‘first spotless day’ as a predictor for sunspot minimum

Defining the first spotless day of a sunspot cycle as the first day without spots relative to sunspot maximum during the decline of the solar cycle, one finds that the timing of that occurrence can be used as a predictor for the occurrence of solar minimum of the following cycle. For cycle 22, the first spotless day occurred in April 1994, based on the International sunspot number index, although other indices (Boulder and American) indicated the first spotless day to have occurred earlier (September 1993). For cycles 9–14, sunspot minimum followed the first spotless day by about 72 months, having a range of 62–82 months; for cycles 15–21, sunspot minimum followed the first spotless day by about 35 months, having a range of 27–40 months. Similarly, the timing of first spotless day relative to sunspot minimum and maximum for the same cycle reveals that it followed minimum (maximum) by about 69 (18) months during cycles 9–14 and by about 90 (44) months during cycles 15–21. Accepting April 1994 as the month of first spotless day occurrence for cycle 22, one finds that it occurred 91 months into the cycle and 57 months following sunspot maximum. Such values indicate that its behavior more closely matches that found for cycles 15–21 rather than for cycles 9–14. Therefore, one infers that sunspot minimum for cycle 23 will occur in about 2–3 years, or about April 1996 to April 1997. Accepting the earlier date of first spotless day occurrence indicates that sunspot minimum for cycle 23 could come several months earlier, perhaps late 1995.The U.S. Government right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty free licence in and to any copyright is acknowledged.     

Coronal changes associated with a disappearing filament

This paper describes Skylab/ATM observations of the events associated with a disappearing filament near the center of the solar disk on January 18, 1974. As the filament disappeared, the nearby coronal plasma was heated to a temperature in excess of 6 × 10⁶K. A change in the pattern of coronal emission occurred during the 11/3 hr period that the soft X-ray flux was increasing. This change seemed to consist of the formation and apparent expansion of a loop-like coronal structure which remained visible until its passage around the west limb several days later. The time history of the X-ray and microwave radio flux displayed the well-known gradual-rise-and-fall (GRF) signature, suggesting that this January 18 event may have properties characteristic of a wide class of X-ray and radio events.In pursuit of this idea, we examined other spatially-resolved Skylab/ATM observations of long-duration X-ray events to see what characteristics they may have in common. Nineteen similar long-lived SOLRAD X-ray events having either the GRF or post-burst radio classification occurred during the nine-month Skylab mission. Sixteen of these occurred during HAO/ATM coronagraph observations, and 7 of these 16 events occurred during observations with both the NRL/ATM slitless spectrograph and the MSFC-A/ATM X-ray telescope. The tabulation of these events suggests that all long-lived SOLRAD X-ray bursts involve transients in the outer corona and that at least two-thirds of the bursts involve either the eruption or major activation of a prominence. Also, these observations indicate that long-lived SOLARD events are characterized by the appearance of new loops of emission in the lower corona during the declining phase of the X-ray emission. However, sometimes these loops disappear after the X-ray event (like the post-flare loops associated with a sporadic coronal condensation), and sometimes the loops remain indefinitely (like the emission from a permanent coronal condensation).Visiting Scientist, Kitt Peak National Observatory, Tucson, Ariz. 85726, U.S.A. operated by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy, Inc., under contract with the National Science Foundation.Presently located at NASA/MSFC, Space Sciences Laboratory, Marshall Space Flight Center, Ala. 35812, U. S.A.     

Changes in the circulation of Tampa Bay due to Hurricane Frances as recorded by ADCP measurements and reproduced with a numerical Ocean model

Hurricane Frances is shown to greatly alter the hydrodynamics within Tampa Bay, Florida, and the exchange of water with the Gulf of Mexico in both observational data and a realistic numerical circulation model of the Tampa Bay estuary. Hurricane Frances hit Tampa Bay on September 5, 2004 with surface winds peaking twice near 22 m s⁻¹. There were three stages to the hydrodynamic effect of Frances on Tampa Bay. The first stage included the approach of Frances up to the first wind peak. The winds were to the south and southeast. During this stage sea level was maintained below mean sea level (MSL) and the residual current (demeaned, detided) was weak. The second stage began as the winds turned to the east and northeast, as the eye passed near the bay, and ended as the second wind peak appeared. During this stage the residual currents were strongly positive (into the bay), raising sea level to 1.2 m above MSL at St. Petersburg. The measured residual circulation peaked at over +0.7 m s⁻¹ near the surface. The model shows this velocity peak yielded a maximum volume flux into the bay of +44,227 m³ s⁻¹, displacing a total volume of 1.5 billion m³ in just a few hours, about 42% of the bay volume. In the third stage a strong negative flow developed as the wind and sea level relaxed to near normal levels. The ADCP measured a peak outflow of −0.8 m s⁻¹ during this time. Model results indicate a maximum flux of −37,575 m³ s⁻¹, and that it took about 50 h to drain the extra volume driven into the bay by Hurricane Frances.     

The geochemistry and provenance of Apollo 16 mafic glasses

The regolith of the Apollo 16 lunar landing site is composed mainly of feldspathic lithologies but mafic lithologies are also present. A large proportion of the mafic material occurs as glass. We determined the major element composition of 280 mafic glasses (>10 wt% FeO) from six different Apollo 16 soil samples. A small proportion (5%) of the glasses are of volcanic origin with picritic compositions. Most, however, are of impact origin. Approximately half of the mafic impact glasses are of basaltic composition and half are of noritic composition with high concentrations of incompatible elements. A small fraction have compositions consistent with impact mixtures of mare material and material of the feldspathic highlands. On the basis of major-element chemistry, we identified six mafic glass groups: VLT picritic glass, low-Ti basaltic glass, high-Ti basaltic glass, high-Al basaltic glass, KREEPy glass, and basaltic-andesite glass. These glass groups encompass 60% of the total mafic glasses studied. Trace-element analyses by secondary ion mass spectroscopy for representative examples of each glass group (31 total analyses) support the major-element classifications and groupings. The lack of basaltic glass in Apollo 16 ancient regolith breccias, which provide snapshots of the Apollo 16 soil just after the infall of Imbrium ejecta, leads us to infer that most (if not all) of the basaltic glass was emplaced as ejecta from small- or moderate-sized impacts into the maria surrounding the Apollo 16 site after the Imbrium impact. The high-Ti basaltic glasses likely represent a new type of basalt from Mare Tranquillitatis, whereas the low-Ti and high-Al basaltic glasses possibly represent the composition of the basalts in Mare Nectaris. Both the low-Ti and high-Al basaltic glasses are enriched in light-REEs, which hints at the presence of a KREEP-bearing source region beneath Mare Nectaris. The basaltic andesite glasses have compositions that are siliceous, ferroan, alkali-rich, and moderately titaniferous; they are unlike any previously recognized lunar lithology or glass group. Their likely provenance is within the Procellarum KREEP Terrane, but they are not found within the Apollo 16 ancient regolith breccias and therefore were likely deposited at the Apollo 16 site post-Imbrium. The basaltic-andesite glasses are the most ferroan variety of KREEP yet discovered.     

Monte Carlo simulation of mixing in Ca3Fe2Ge3O12–Ca4Ge4O12 garnets and implications for the thermodynamic stability of pyrope–majorite solid solution

Static lattice energy calculations, based on empirical pair potentials, were performed for a large set of structures differing in the arrangement of octahedral cations within the garnet 2 × 2 × 2 supercell. The compositions of these structures varied between Ca₃Fe₂Ge₃O₁₂ and Ca₄Ge₄O₁₂. The energies were cluster expanded using pair and quaternary terms. The derived ordering constants were used to constrain Monte Carlo simulations of temperature-dependent mixing properties in the ranges of 1,073–3,673 K and 0–10 GPa. The free energies of mixing were calculated using the method of thermodynamic integration. The calculations predict a wide miscibility gap between Fe-rich (cubic) and Fe-pure (tetragonal) garnets consistent with recent experimental observations of Iezzi et al. (Phys Chem Miner 32:197–207, 2005). It is shown that the miscibility gap arises due to a very strong cation ordering at the Fe-pure composition, driven by the charge difference between Ca²⁺ and Ge⁴⁺ cations. The structural and thermodynamic analogies between Ca–Ge and Mg–Si systems suggest that a similar miscibility gap should exist between pyrope and Mg–Si-majorite.     

The effects of hazard zone information on judgements about earthquake damage

This study investigates the extent to which people's views on the causes and preventability of earthquake damage might be influenced by their degree of exposure to hazard as well as what information they have been given about the hazard. The results show that the provision of hazard zoning information influences judgements on preventability and causes of damage, but this effect depends on the degree of hazard faced by residents. In low hazard zones, information leads to the view that causes are manageable, whereas in high hazard zones information may induce a degree of fatalism. The use of public information in risk management needs to take into account the degree of risk faced by the recipients.     

Mixing and differentiation in the Oruanui rhyolitic magma, Taupo, New Zealand: evidence from volatiles and trace elements in melt inclusions

Large pyroclastic rhyolites are snapshots of evolving magma bodies, and preserved in their eruptive pyroclasts is a record of evolution up to the time of eruption. Here we focus on the conditions and processes in the Oruanui magma that erupted at 26.5 ka from Taupo Volcano, New Zealand. The 530 km³ (void-free) of material erupted in the Oruanui event is comparable in size to the Bishop Tuff in California, but differs in that rhyolitic pumice and glass compositions, although variable, did not change systematically with eruption order. We measured the concentrations of H₂O, CO₂ and major and trace elements in zoned phenocrysts and melt inclusions from individual pumice clasts covering the range from early to late erupted units. We also used cathodoluminescence imaging to infer growth histories of quartz phenocrysts. For quartz-hosted inclusions, we studied both fully enclosed melt inclusions and reentrants (connecting to host melt through a small opening). The textures and compositions of inclusions and phenocrysts reflect complex pre-eruptive processes of incomplete assimilation/partial melting, crystallization differentiation, magma mixing and gas saturation. ‘Restitic’ quartz occurs in seven of eight pumice clasts studied. Variations in dissolved H₂O and CO₂ in quartz-hosted melt inclusions reflect gas saturation in the Oruanui magma and crystallization depths of ∼3.5–7 km. Based on variations of dissolved H₂O and CO₂ in reentrants, the amount of exsolved gas at the beginning of eruption increased with depth, corresponding to decreasing density with depth. Pre-eruptive mixing of magma with varying gas content implies variations in magma bulk density that would have driven convective mixing. Electronic Supplementary Material Supplementary material is available for this article at and is accessible for authorized users.     

Approximate analysis methods for asymmetric plan base‐isolated buildings

An approximate method for linear analysis of asymmetric‐plan, multistorey buildings is specialized for a single‐storey, base‐isolated structure. To find the mode shapes of the torsionally coupled system, the Rayleigh–Ritz procedure is applied using the torsionally uncoupled modes as Ritz vectors. This approach reduces to analysis of two single‐storey systems, each with vibration properties and eccentricities (labelled ‘effective eccentricities’) similar to corresponding properties of the isolation system or the fixed‐base structure. With certain assumptions, the vibration properties of the coupled system can be expressed explicitly in terms of these single‐storey system properties. Three different methods are developed: the first is a direct application of the Rayleigh–Ritz procedure; the second and third use simplifications for the effective eccentricities, assuming a relatively stiff superstructure. The accuracy of these proposed methods and the rigid structure method in determining responses are assessed for a range of system parameters including eccentricity and structure flexibility. For a subset of systems with equal isolation and structural eccentricities, two of the methods are exact and the third is sufficiently accurate; all three are preferred to the rigid structure method. For systems with zero isolation eccentricity, however, all approximate methods considered are inconsistent and should be applied with caution, only to systems with small structural eccentricities or stiff structures. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Re–Os study of sulfide minerals from the Bagdad porphyry Cu–Mo deposit, northern Arizona, USA

Rhenium and osmium isotopes in sulfide minerals from the Bagdad porphyry Cu–Mo deposit have been used to determine timing of mineralization and the source of osmium and, by inference, ore metals. Molybdenite, chalcopyrite and pyrite were analyzed mainly from the quartz monzonite and porphyritic quartz monzonite units, which are characterized by moderate to strong potassic alteration (secondary biotite and K-feldspar). Rhenium concentrations in molybdenite are between 330 and 642 ppm. Four Re–Os analyses of two molybdenite samples from the quartz monzonite and porphyritic quartz monzonite yield a weighted average age of 71.8±0.2 Ma (2s). Analyses of a third sample from a molybdenite vein in Precambrian rocks, outside of the main ore zone, yield a weighted average age of 75.9±0.2 Ma (2s), and provide evidence of two separate mineralization episodes. Chalcopyrite samples contain 6 to 12 ppt Os and 1.7 to 4.1 ppb Re; ¹⁸⁷Os/ ¹⁸⁸Os initial ratios are between 0.1 and 0.8. Pyrite samples have osmium and rhenium concentrations varying in the range 8–17 ppt and 3.9–6.8 ppb, respectively. Analyses from these pyrite samples yield an eight-point isochron with an age of 77±15 Ma (2s) and an initial ¹⁸⁷Os/ ¹⁸⁸Os ratio of 2.1±0.8 (MSWD=0.90). The results presented here add to the growing body of work indicating that porphyry-type mineralization is produced by long-term, multiple episodes of magmatism and associated mineralization. The data also support the hypothesis that a significant part of the metals and magmas may have a crustal source, as has been suggested for other copper deposits and districts in Arizona.