Understanding coastal wetland hydrology with a new regional‐scale,process‐based hydrological model

Coastal wetlands represent an ecotone between ocean and terrestrial ecosystems, providing important services, including flood mitigation, fresh water supply, erosion control, carbon sequestration, and wildlife habitat. The environmental setting of a wetland and the hydrological connectivity between a wetland and adjacent terrestrial and aquatic systems together determine wetland hydrology. Yet little is known about regional‐scale hydrological interactions among uplands, coastal wetlands, and coastal processes, such as tides, sea level rise, and saltwater intrusion, which together control the dynamics of wetland hydrology. This study presents a new regional‐scale, physically based, distributed wetland hydrological model, PIHM‐Wetland, which integrates the surface and subsurface hydrology with coastal processes and accounts for the influence of wetland inundation on energy budgets and evapotranspiration (ET). The model was validated using in situ hydro‐meteorological measurements and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) ET data for a forested and herbaceous wetland in North Carolina, USA, which confirmed that the model accurately represents the major wetland hydrological behaviours. Modelling results indicate that topographic gradient is a primary control of groundwater flow direction in adjacent uplands. However, seasonal climate patterns become the dominant control of groundwater flow at lower coastal plain and land–ocean interface. We found that coastal processes largely influence groundwater table (GWT) dynamics in the coastal zone, 300 to 800 m from the coastline in our study area. Among all the coastal processes, tides are the dominant control on GWT variation. Because of inundation, forested and herbaceous wetlands absorb an additional 6% and 10%, respectively, of shortwave radiation annually, resulting in a significant increase in ET. Inundation alters ET partitioning through canopy evaporation, transpiration, and soil evaporation, the effect of which is stronger in cool seasons than in warm seasons. The PIHM‐Wetland model provides a new tool that improves the understanding of wetland hydrological processes on a regional scale. Insights from this modelling study provide benchmarks for future research on the effects of sea level rise and climate change on coastal wetland functions and services.     

Estimating groundwater recharge for a freshwater lens in an arid region: Formative and stability assessment

The formation of subsurface freshwater lenses on top of brackish groundwater is a fascinating hydrologic phenomenon that creates groundwater supplies of great potential value in arid regions. Information on the recharge quantity and mechanism of these lenses is both scarce and uncertain. This study examines the formation and macroscale stability of the Rawdatain freshwater lens in Kuwait, for which significant pre-development data are available. The Rawdatain is a large (150 million m³) subsurface freshwater lens overlying brackish groundwater compared to the other freshwater lenses in the Arabian Peninsula. In this study, a three-dimensional (3D) density-dependent groundwater flow model is tested against the following data targets to estimate long-term diffuse and focused groundwater recharge: (i) groundwater head, (ii) total dissolved solids (TDS) groundwater concentration, (iii) volume and vertical thickness of stored groundwater of three different water quality TDS ranges (0–700, 700–1000 and 1000–2000 mg/L) and (iv) geometrical shape features of the lens along cross-sections. To better represent the spatial variation in TDS, six different recharge zones were assigned to allocate diffuse and focused recharge conditions. Twelve recharge rate scenarios, encompassing a wide range of feasible long-term average annual recharge values (200,000–5,000,000 m³/year), were tested against the multiple targets and compared with the groundwater age of the Rawdatain lens. Based on comparison with data targets, the long-term average annual recharge is estimated to be 500,000 m³/year. Scenarios of reduced recharge, which may occur due to changes in land-use or climate, demonstrate the extremely slow response of the lens, which is in agreement with the slow development and formation of the lens (>2,000 years). Within a 100-year time frame, a 50% reduction in annual recharge reduces the lens volumes by 21, 17 and 9% for the three water quality categories, respectively. This study demonstrates the stability of freshwater lenses in arid regions and also provides methodology for similar focused rainfall recharge freshwater lenses.     

Stormwater control impacts on runoff volume and peak flow: A meta-analysis of watershed modelling studies

Decades of research has concluded that the percent of impervious surface cover in a watershed is strongly linked to negative impacts on urban stream health. Recently, there has been a push by municipalities to offset these effects by installing structural stormwater control measures (SCMs), which are landscape features designed to retain and reduce runoff to mitigate the effects of urbanisation on event hydrology. The goal of this study is to build generalisable relationships between the level of SCM implementation in urban watersheds and resulting changes to hydrology. A literature review of 185 peer-reviewed studies of watershed-scale SCM implementation across the globe was used to identify 52 modelling studies suitable for a meta-analysis to build statistical relationships between SCM implementation and hydrologic change. Hydrologic change is quantified as the percent reduction in storm event runoff volume and peak flow between a watershed with SCMs relative to a (near) identical control watershed without SCMs. Results show that for each additional 1% of SCM-mitigated impervious area in a watershed, there is an additional 0.43% reduction in runoff and a 0.60% reduction in peak flow. Values of SCM implementation required to produce a change in water quantity metrics were identified at varying levels of probability. For example, there is a 90% probability (high confidence) of at least a 1% reduction in peak flow with mitigation of 33% of impervious surfaces. However, as the reduction target increases or mitigated impervious surface decreases, the probability of reaching the reduction target also decreases. These relationships can be used by managers to plan SCM implementation at the watershed scale.     

Predicting the displacement of triple pendulum™ bearings in a full‐scale shaking experiment using a three‐dimensional element

The accuracy of a series spring model to predict the peak displacement and displacement history of Triple Pendulum? (TP) bearings in a strongly shaken, full‐scale building is evaluated in this paper. The series spring model was implemented as a self‐contained three‐dimensional TP bearing element in OpenSees and is now available for general use. The TP bearing element contains the option for constant friction or a generalized friction model that accounts for the effect of instantaneous velocity and compression load on the friction coefficient. Comparison between numerical simulation and experimental data of a five‐story steel moment frame building shows that the peak displacement of isolation system can generally be predicted with confidence using a constant friction coefficient model. The friction coefficient model accounting for the effect of axial load and velocity leads to minor improvement over the constant friction coefficient models in some cases. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modeling Variably Saturated Subsurface Solute Transport with MODFLOW‐UZF and MT3DMS

The MT3DMS groundwater solute transport model was modified to simulate solute transport in the unsaturated zone by incorporating the unsaturated‐zone flow (UZF1) package developed for MODFLOW. The modified MT3DMS code uses a volume‐averaged approach in which Lagrangian‐based UZF1 fluid fluxes and storage changes are mapped onto a fixed grid. Referred to as UZF‐MT3DMS, the linked model was tested against published benchmarks solved analytically as well as against other published codes, most frequently the U.S. Geological Survey's Variably‐Saturated Two‐Dimensional Flow and Transport Model. Results from a suite of test cases demonstrate that the modified code accurately simulates solute advection, dispersion, and reaction in the unsaturated zone. Two‐ and three‐dimensional simulations also were investigated to ensure unsaturated‐saturated zone interaction was simulated correctly. Because the UZF1 solution is analytical, large‐scale flow and transport investigations can be performed free from the computational and data burdens required by numerical solutions to Richards' equation. Results demonstrate that significant simulation runtime savings can be achieved with UZF‐MT3DMS, an important development when hundreds or thousands of model runs are required during parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis. Three‐dimensional variably saturated flow and transport simulations revealed UZF‐MT3DMS to have runtimes that are less than one tenth of the time required by models that rely on Richards' equation. Given its accuracy and efficiency, and the wide‐spread use of both MODFLOW and MT3DMS, the added capability of unsaturated‐zone transport in this familiar modeling framework stands to benefit a broad user‐ship.     

Deriving fault-slip histories to test for secular variation in slip,with examples from the Kunlun and Awatere faults

Although offset and age data from displaced landforms are essential for identifying earthquake clusters and thus testing whether faults slip at uniform or secularly varying rates, it is not clear how the uncertainties in such measurements should be propagated so as to yield a robust fault-slip history (i.e., record of fault displacement over time). Here we develop a Monte Carlo approach for estimating the distribution of geologically reasonable fault-slip histories that fit the offset and age data from a population of dated and displaced landforms. The model assumes that the landforms share common faulting histories, the offset and age constraints are correct, and the fault has not reversed shear sense. Analysis of the model results yields both a precise average slip rate, in the case where a linear fit is applied to the data, and a best-fit fault-slip history, in the case where the linear constraint is removed. The method can be used to test for secular variation in slip because the uncertainty on this best-fit history is quantified. By applying the method to previously published morphochronologic data from faulted late Quaternary terrace risers along the Kunlun fault in China and the Awatere fault in New Zealand, we have assessed the extent to which our modeled average slip rates match previously reported values and the data support previous interpretations of uniform slip rate. The Kunlun data set yields average slip rates of 8.7 + 3.6/?2.1 mm/yr and 5.1 + 1.6/?1.2 mm/yr (68.27% confidence), for the central and eastern reaches of the fault, respectively, both of which match previously published slip rates. Our analysis further indicates that these fault reaches have both slipped uniformly over the latest Quaternary. In contrast, analysis of data from the Saxton River site along the Awatere fault reveals a mid-Holocene deceleration in slip rate from 6.2 + 1.6/?1.4 mm/yr to 2.8 + 1.0/?0.6 mm/yr. This result contradicts previous interpretations of uniform slip along the Awatere fault. The Monte Carlo method we present here for quantifying fault-slip histories using the offset and age data from a population of faulted landforms provides an important tool for distinguishing temporally uniform from secularly varying fault slip.     

Earth Dam-foundation interaction during earthquakes

Several significant parameters that could affect interaction in a dam-foundation system are discussed. These parameters are: (1) Fundamental periods of the dam and the foundation layer. (2) Lateral extent of the dam. (3) The material properties of the dam and the foundation layer. Five cases are analysed to illustrate the influence of these parameters on interaction. An interaction ratio, R₁, relating the response of the dam-foundation system at the base of the dam to the free field response is introduced and interaction effects are expressed in terms of this ratio; the smaller this ratio, the less are the interaction effects. For very small values of R₁, it is shown that the dam-foundation system could be decoupled The results of the studies presented in the paper suggest that the interaction effects cannot be uniquely related to either the ratio of the period of the dam to the period of the foundation layer, or to the material properties of the dam and foundation layer. However, for the limited number of cases investigated, the interaction effects were found to be uniquely related to the ratio D/B, where D is the depth of the foundation layer and B is the width of the dam section. For values of D/B less than unity, strong interaction effects were obtained and the dam-foundation system could only be analysed as a coupled system. For values of D/B greater than unity, the interaction appeared negligible and the dam and its foundation layer could be decoupled. It should be noted, however, that for very small values of D/B the interaction effects would decrease becaase as D approaches zero, there would be no interaction The use of the interaction ratio, R₁, and the parameter D/B should aid in assessing the need for analysing the response of the dam-foundation as a coupled or as a decoupled system.     

Decadal and seasonal changes in landcover at Padre Island: Implications for the role of the back-barrier in signaling island state change

Long-term and seasonal geomorphological changes at Padre Island, Texas are identified and linked with potential external drivers. Aerial and satellite images from 1950 to 2018, monthly images from 2019 to 2020, and a 2018 LiDAR data set are used to assess long-term and seasonal geomorphological changes within a 50 km² area of Padre Island near Port Mansfield, Texas. Trends in landcover are evaluated by mapping and comparing the relative areal coverage of each facies. Vegetated dunes, absent initially, emerged in the fore-island and expanded into the back-barrier to cover 14% of the study area. The active vegetation-free back-barrier dune field steadily decreased in areal extent from 12% to 6% as vegetation spread. Nebkha dune coverage fluctuated between 4% and 7%. Expansive microbial mats colonized the wind tidal and deflation flats surrounding the vegetated dunes and back-barrier dune field giving rise to a remarkably different landscape over the 50-year period studied. An assessment of external forcing factors identifies increased rates of relative sea level rise and decreased sediment influx as the most likely primary factors driving the geomorphological changes. These changes have induced a widespread shift toward stabilization of island sediments by vegetation and microbial mats, which in turn has starved the back-barrier of sediments resulting in low rates of accretion and increased flooding. These findings highlight the sensitivity of the back-barrier and, in particular, the dune facies to changes in sea level and sediment supply, and show that microbial mats are effective at stabilizing island sediments and may be harbingers to barrier island response to rising sea level. As shown in this study, long-term monitoring of geomorphic facies changes and topography can detect important shifts in the island state that can be used to inform decision making for these sensitive coastal landscapes.     

Efficacy of Annual Bacteria Monitoring and Shock Chlorination in Wells Finished in a Floodplain Aquifer

Public health authorities generally recommend annual water-quality monitoring of rural water wells and shock chlorination if coliforms are detected. It is implicitly assumed that shock chlorination is effective in ridding most wells of bacteriological pathogens for months to years. Neither annual monitoring nor shock chlorination was effective in addressing coliform contamination of selected water wells in a small town developed on an alluvial aquifer where septic system effluents are impacting well water quality. Considerable temporal variation in total and fecal coliforms was observed in water wells monitored for a six-month period. Individual wells intermittently met and exceeded the drinking water criteria, indicating annual sampling was insufficient. Shock chlorination of three contaminated wells and their associated distribution systems proved ineffective because colonies apparently originated from outside the wells and reappeared over relatively short time periods (ranging from less than one week up to 21 weeks). The relatively fast and similar rate of recovery of total heterotrophic bacteria suggested they are related to biofilm formation in the wells and not to ground water contamination.