Tropical and extratropical cyclone damages under climate change

This paper provides the first quantitative synthesis of the rapidly growing literature on future tropical and extratropical cyclone damages under climate change. We estimate a probability distribution for the predicted impact of changes in global surface air temperatures on future storm damages, using an ensemble of 478 estimates of the temperature-damage relationship from nineteen studies. Our analysis produces three main empirical results. First, we find strong but not conclusive support for the hypothesis that climate change will cause damages from tropical cyclones and wind storms to increase, with most models predicting higher future storm damages due to climate change. Second, there is substantial variation in projected changes in losses across regions. Potential changes in damages are greatest in the North Atlantic basin, where the multi-model average predicts that a 2.5 °C increase in global surface air temperature would cause hurricane damages to increase by 63 %. The ensemble predictions for Western North Pacific tropical cyclones and European wind storms (extratropical cyclones) are +28 % and +23 %, respectively. Finally, our analysis shows that existing models of storm damages under climate change generate a wide range of predictions, ranging from moderate decreases to very large increases in losses.     

Understanding processes of sediment bleaching in glacial settings using a portable OSL reader

Analysis of a high‐resolution suite of modern glacial sediments from Jostedalen, southern Norway, using a portable optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) reader, provides insights into the processes of sediment bleaching in glacial environments at the catchment scale. High‐magnitude, low‐frequency processes result in the least effective sediment bleaching, whereas low‐magnitude, high‐frequency events provide greater bleaching opportunities. Changes in sediment bleaching can also be identified at the scale of individual bar features: tails of braid‐bars and side‐attached bar deposits have the lowest portable reader signal intensities, as well as the smallest conventional OSL residual doses. In addition to improving our understanding of the processes of sediment bleaching, portable reader investigations can also facilitate more rapid and comprehensive modern analogue investigations, which are commonly used to confirm that the OSL signals of modern glacial sediments are well bleached.     

Tephra stratigraphy on the North Icelandic shelf: extending tephrochronology into marine sediments off North Iceland

Tephra stratigraphical and tephrochronological studies of marine core MD99‐2275 on the North Icelandic shelf have revealed 58 new tephra horizons within the last 7050 cal. a BP, bringing the total number of identified tephra layers to 76. So far, over 100 tephra layers have been identified in the entire core spanning the last 15 000 years. The majority of the newly identified tephra layers are basaltic in composition and originate from the most active volcanic systems in Iceland, namely Grímsvötn, Veidivötn‐Bárdarbunga and Katla. A total of 40 tephra layer land–sea correlations have been made within this time period, of which 16 represent absolutely dated tephra markers. In addition, two tephra marker series are revealed in the marine sediments and in the terrestrial tephra stratigraphy, located between c. 2300–2600 and between 5700–5900 years. For the last 15 000 years, 21 tephra markers have been recognized. The marine tephra layer frequency (TLF) reveals two peaks, within the last 2000 years, and between 5000 and 7000 years ago. It shows the same general characteristics as the terrestrial TLF curve in Iceland, which indicates that marine sediments can yield important information about volcanism in Iceland. This is useful in time segments in which terrestrial records are poor or non‐existent. The study contributes to a high‐resolution tephrochronological framework on the North Icelandic shelf, with core MD99‐2275 representing a potential stratotype section in the area, and for the northern North Atlantic–Nordic Seas region, as well as being an important contribution to the Lateglacial–early Holocene volcanic history of Iceland.     

Relative sea‐level observations in western Scotland since the Last Glacial Maximum for testing models of glacial isostatic land movements and ice‐sheet reconstructions

Observations of relative sea‐level change and local deglaciation in western Scotland provide critical constraints for modelling glacio‐isostatic rebound in northern Britain over the last 18 000 years. The longest records come from Skye, Arisaig and Knapdale with a shorter, Holocene, record from Kintail. Biostratigraphic (diatom, pollen, dinoflagellate, foraminifera and thecamoebian), lithological and radiocarbon analyses provide age and elevation parameters for each sea‐level index point. All four sites reveal relative sea‐level change that is highly non‐monotonic in time as the local vertical component of glacio‐isostatic rebound and eustasy (or global meltwater influx) dominate at different periods. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The solar particle event of July 16–19, 1966 and its possible association with a flare on the invisible solar hemisphere

An energetic solar proton and electron event was observed by particle detectors aboard Explorer 33 (AIMP-1) and OGO-3 during the period July 16–19, 1966. Optical and radio observations of the sun suggest that these particles were produced by a flare which may have occurred on July 16 near the central meridian of the invisible hemisphere. The active region to which the flare is assigned is known to have produced the energetic particle events of July 7 and 28, 1966. The propagation of the particles in the July 16–19 event over the 180° extent of solar longitude from the flare to the earth is discussed, and it is concluded that there must exist a means of rapidly distributing energetic particles over a large area of the sun. Several possible mechanisms are suggested.     

Chemical and chronologic complexity in the convecting upper mantle: Evidence from the Taitao ophiolite, southern Chile

Exposure of the ca. 6 Ma Taitao ophiolite, Chile, located 50 km south of the Chile Triple Junction, allows detailed chemical and isotopic study of rocks that were recently extracted from the depleted mantle source of mid-ocean ridge basalts (DMM). Ultramafic and mafic rocks are examined for isotopic (Os, Sr, Nd, and O), and major and trace element compositions, including the highly siderophile elements (HSE). Taitao peridotites have compositions indicative of variable extents of partial melting and melt extraction. Low δ¹⁸O values for most whole rock samples suggest some open-system, high-temperature water–rock interaction, most likely during serpentinization, but relict olivine grains have δ¹⁸O values consistent with primary mantle values. Most of the peridotites analyzed for Nd–Sr isotopes have compositions consistent with estimates for the modern DMM, although several samples are characterized by ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr and ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd indicative of crustal contamination, most likely via interactions with seawater. The peridotites have initial ¹⁸⁷Os/¹⁸⁸Os ratios that range widely from 0.1168 to 0.1288 (γ_Os = −8.0 to +1.1), averaging 0.1239 (γ_Os = −2.4), which is comparable to the average for modern abyssal peridotites. A negative correlation between the Mg^# of relict olivine grains and Os isotopic compositions of whole rock peridotites suggests that the Os isotopic compositions reflect primary mantle Re/Os fractionation produced by variable extents of partial melting at approximately 1.6 Ga. Recent re-melting at or near the spatially associated Chile Ridge further modified these rocks, and Re, and minor Pt and Pd were subsequently added back into some rocks by late-stage melt–rock or fluid–rock interactions.In contrast to the peridotites, approximately half of the mafic rocks examined have whole rock δ¹⁸O values within the range of mantle compositions, and their Nd and Sr isotopic compositions are all generally within the range of modern DMM. These rocks have initial ¹⁸⁷Os/¹⁸⁸Os ratios, calculated for 6 Ma, that range from 0.126 (γ_Os = −1) to as high as 0.561 (γ_Os = +342). The Os isotopic systematics of each of these rocks may reflect derivation from mixed lithologies that include the peridotites, but may also include pyroxenites with considerably more radiogenic Os than the peridotites. This observation supports the view that suprachondritic Os present in MORB derives from mixed mantle source lithologies, accounting for some of the worldwide dichotomy in ¹⁸⁷Os/¹⁸⁸Os between MORB and abyssal peridotites.The collective results of this study suggest that this >500 km³ block of the mantle underwent at least two stages of melting. The first stage occurred at 1.6 Ga, after which the block remained isolated and unmixed within the DMM. A final stage of melting recently occurred at or near the Chile Ridge, resulting in the production of at least some of the mafic rocks. Convective stirring of this mantle domain during a >1 Ga period was remarkably inefficient, at least with regard to Os isotopes.