A methodological framework for assessing and reducing temporal uncertainty in paleovegetation mapping from late-Quaternary pollen records

Mapping past vegetation dynamics from heterogeneous databases of fossil-pollen records must face the challenge of temporal uncertainty. The growing collection of densely sampled fossil-pollen records with accurate and precise chronologies allows us to develop new methods to assess and reduce this uncertainty. Here, we test our methods in the context of vegetation changes in eastern North America during the abrupt climate changes of the last deglaciation. We use the network of fossil-pollen records in the Neotoma Paleoecology Database (www.neotomadb.org) and data contributed by individual investigators. Because many of these records were collected decades before the current generation of ¹⁴C and age-model technologies, we first developed a framework to assess the overall reliability of ¹⁴C chronologies by systematically evaluating individual ¹⁴C ages and associated chronologies. We developed a qualitative ranking scheme for individual ¹⁴C ages that combines information about their accuracy and precision. ‘Benchmark’ pollen records were defined to have at least one ¹⁴C age with an accuracy within 250 years and a precision less than 500 years that is within 1000 years of the time interval of interest, and at least five pollen samples per 1000 years across this time period. Only 22 of >350 late-Pleistocene pollen cores in eastern North America met the benchmark criteria.We then used Bayesian change-point analysis to identify widespread ecological events (Picea decline, Quercus rise, and Alnus decline), and interpolated the ages of these events from the benchmark sites to non-benchmark sites. Leave-one-out cross-validation analyses with the benchmark sites indicated that the spatial error associated with interpolation was less for inverse distance-weighting (IDW) than thin-plate splines (TPS) and was about 500 years for the three biotic events. By comparison, the difference between the original ages of events at poorly constrained sites and the biostratigraphic ages interpolated from the benchmark sites was close to 1000 years, suggesting that the use of biostratigraphic ages can significantly improve the age models for poorly constrained sites. Overall, these analyses suggest that the temporal resolution of multi-site syntheses of late-Pleistocene fossil-pollen data in eastern North America is about 500 years, a resolution that allows analysis of ecological responses to millennial-scale climate change during the last deglaciation.     

Quaternary environmental changes in tropical Lake Towuti,Indonesia, inferred from end-member modelling of X-ray fluorescence core-scanning data

Continental and marine sediments are composed of a mixture from different sources and are influenced by a variety of environmental factors and transport processes prior to deposition. For analysis and interpretation, these sources and processes are often challenging to disentangle. We show that end-member modelling of X-ray fluorescence (XRF) core-scanning data helps to overcome these challenges by unmixing different environmental signals from high-resolution sediment geochemical records. We apply this approach to a 100 m long lacustrine succession from Lake Towuti, Indonesia, to separate the regional climate and tectonic history from local ecological and diagenetic processes. The resulting six end-members (EMs) are interpreted to represent changes in ecological (EM1), climatic (EMs 2–4), tectonic (EM 5) and geomorphic (EM6) processes determining changes in sediment composition. Because end-member analysis allows for the tracking of transient and overlapping processes, climatic changes can be followed throughout the 100 m-long succession, suggesting alternating wet and dry periods in Central Sulawesi over long (several 100 000 years) time scales. We show that end-member analysis on elemental data sets offers a detailed and objective means to disentangle depositional processes in sedimentary successions resulting from varying tectonic and environmental factors involved in sediment formation and deposition.     

The petrology and geochemistry of Miller Range 05035: A new lunar gabbroic meteorite

Miller Range (MIL) 05035 is a lunar gabbroic meteorite. The mineralogy, Fe/Mn ratios in olivine and pyroxene, bulk-rock chemical composition and the bulk oxygen isotope values (δ¹⁷O = 2.86-2.97‰ and δ¹⁸O = 5.47-5.71‰) are similar to those of other mare basalts, and are taken as supporting evidence for a lunar origin for this meteorite. The sample is dominated by pyroxene grains (54-61% by area mode of thin section) along with large plagioclase feldspar (25-36% by mode) and accessory quartz, ilmenite, spinel, apatite and troilite. The bulk-rock major element composition of MIL 05035 indicates that the sample has a very low-Ti (VLT) to low-Ti lunar heritage (we measure bulk TiO₂ to be 0.9 Wt.%) and has low bulk incompatible trace element (ITE) concentrations, akin to samples from the VLT mare basalt suite. To account for these geochemical characteristics we hypothesize that MIL 05035’s parental melt was derived from a mantle region dominated by early cumulates of the magma ocean (comprised principally of olivine and orthopyroxene). MIL 05035 is likely launch paired with the Asuka-881757 and Yamato-793169 basaltic lunar meteorites and the basaltic regolith breccia MET 01210. This group of meteorites (Y/A/M/M) therefore may be a part of a stratigraphic column consisting of an upper regolith environment underlain by a coarsening downwards basalt lava flow.     

Stable isotope constraints on the origin of the Cabo de Creus garnet-tourmaline pegmatites,Massif des Alberes,Eastern Pyrenees,Spain

Pegmatite dyke swarms are exposed within the easternmost Pyrenees at Cabo de Creus. These dykes were emplaced into high-grade metamorphosed sedimentary strata of Cambro-Ordovician age, but lack obvious field relationship to Hercynian intrusive rocks. Together with structural and geochemical data, equilibrium oxygen isotope fractionations at temperatures of ≈ 600°C, the lack of obvious subsolidus exchange, and the H- and O-isotopic signatures of water in equilibrium with pegmatite mica and quartz are interpreted to indicate a derivation from anatexis of a metapelitic source at shallow crustal levels.     

An approach to modeling trace component activities in silicate melts: NiO

This report presents a model predicting activities for NiO in a wide range of silicate melts that include the components SiO₂, TiO₂, Al₂O₃, MgO, FeO, CaO, Na₂O, and K₂O. The conceptual simplicity of this model, combined with its success in modeling complex variations in activity with melt composition, suggests that the approach may provide insight into the character of trace components in the melt. The model presented in this report considers NiO to exist as Ni²⁺ and O^2? in the melt, and predicts the activity of NiO by modeling variations in both aNi²⁺ and aO^2?. Activities of Ni²⁺ are modeled assuming that NiO mixes randomly with a hypothetical ‘mixing pool’ of cations dominated by cations of similar size and charge to Ni²⁺, mainly Fe²⁺, Mg²⁺, Ca²⁺, and Ni²⁺. aO^2? is modeled as a function of total oxygen ? 2·network-forming cations, with the understanding that O^2? in silicate melts exists in equilibrium with bridging and non-bridging oxygens through reactions of the type Si–O–Si + O^2? → 2 Si–O. For illustration, the model is applied to reduced mafic lunar samples that may have equilibrated with a Ni-bearing metal phase.     

Skill of western North Pacific tropical cyclone intensity forecast guidance relative to Weighted-Analog technique

The accuracy of the western North Pacific tropical cyclone intensity forecast guidance products available at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is evaluated relative to a new skill metric called Weighted Analog Intensity Pacific (WAIP) that includes knowledge of the JTWC official track forecast and the current intensity, which is information that is available at the time the intensity forecast is generated. An intensity consensus technique called S5XX that includes statistical-dynamic intensity forecasts plus other dynamic and thermodynamic prediction techniques has statistically significant smaller errors than WAIP at 24 h and 48 h and has similar accuracy through 120 h. While the track consensus CONW is a critical input to the JTWC official track forecast, it has no skill relative to WAIP as an intensity forecast. Three regional numerical models also have no skill relative to WAIP, and especially at forecast intervals beyond 72 h because their mean absolute errors are statistically significantly larger than for WAIP. Furthermore, these regional models have statistically significant positive or negative intensity biases relative to the verifying intensities. However, an experimental consensus technique called CMES that includes these three regional models has small accuracy relative to WAIP in the 24 h to 72 h forecast intervals. Geographical-based comparisons of the intensity guidance products with the WAIP indicate almost all of the products are more accurate than WAIP over the South China Sea region. The statistical-dynamic consensus technique S5XX does have skill through 72 h for landfalling situations along the coasts of China and Southeast Asia. At 120 h, the WAIP has superior performance over the guidance products over most areas of the western North Pacific, but again the S5XX is more accurate than WAIP for landfalling tropical cyclones on the Philippine Islands, Southeast Asia, South China, and northeastern Japan. This information will be useful to the forecaster in deciding when and where (or how much) to rely on each guidance product in preparing the five-day intensity forecast once the official track forecast has been established.     

The Quassaic Group,a Medial to Late Ordovician arenite sequence in the Marlboro Mountains Outlier,mid-Hudson Valley,New York,U.S.A

The Quassaic Group occurs as an outlier in the north-south trending Marlboro Syncline which extends 40 km between Kingston and Newburgh in southeastern New York. The group is comprised primarily of 3050 m of late Medial to medial Late Ordovician marine arenites. It is subdivided (oldest to youngest) into five formations: Creek Locks, Rifton, Shaupeneak. Slab Sides, and Chodikee. On the western limb of the syncline the group overlies a minimum of 610 m of the early late Medial Ordovician Bushkill Shale and the bottom three formations grade north and south to Bushkill Shale. Abundance of graded but occasionally conglomeratic beds, common tabular cross-lamination, much less common trough cross-lamination, comparative lack of channelling, general lack of shales, and scarcity of fossils indicate that the average depositional environment of the formations was near the base of the slope of a sedimentary apron or delta which lay to the southeast. The environment, however, probably extended from a basin plain, in the marginal Bushkill Shale, through the lower and middle slope and, rarely, to the upper slope. The occasional molasse-like deposits in the Shaupeneak Formation may indicate local transport of molasse to an upper slope position. The Quassaic Group thus records an initial, local extension of arenites of the lower slope of an apron or delta onto a downwarping basin plain in the Bushkill Trough. This was followed by progressive enlargement and extension of the delta slope with attendant shallowing, culminated by the appearance of molasse-like sediments. Subsequent deposition involved greater slope extension followed by recession with gradual deepening. These activities were prelude to the Hudson Valley Phase of the Taconian Orogeny which downfolded the Quassaic Group into the Marlboro Syncline during latest Ordovician times.     

Mapping the archaeological soil archive of sand and gravel mineral reserves in Britain

Primary sand and gravel deposits in Britain play an important role in preserving our cultural heritage and are also a valuable aggregate resource. While an understanding of the extrinsic properties of the soil archive (such as pH, redox, groundwater) can provide a firstorder assessment of the potential risk to any archaeologically sensitive deposits, we have very poor definition of spatial variations in the extrinsic properties of soil that influence archaeological preservation at a regional and national scale. Developments in digital geological mapping, remote sensing, and geochemical survey data undertaken by the British Geological Survey (BGS) have, however, significantly extended capabilities in this respect and can potentially be used to provide a primary assessment of the sensitivity of the present soil archive and the potential risk from changes to the soil process on cultural material in areas earmarked for aggregate extraction. Two of the major factors affecting archaeological preservation—soil acidification and groundwater—can be mapped or predicted at scales of better than 1:50,000 across increasingly large parts of the country using a combination of regional hydrogeological, geophysical, and geochemical data. Additional data from site investigations may further refine preservation potential as a function of changes in redox potential and acidity. These data, maps and models can be used to (1) better establish a baseline for archaeological preservation at a regional and national scale and (2) improve our understanding of how the physical and chemical properties of the near surface environment can be managed to sustainably preserve archaeological materials in areas impacted by sand and gravel extraction. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.