推进监测预报体系建设,提高地震预测预报水平

对监测预报工作的地位和作用进行了深入的阐述，分析总结了监测预报工作取得的进展以及存在的问题，提出了未来监测预报体系建设的指导思想和总体目标。并对进一步加强监测预报体系建设，提高预测预报水平各环节的工作进行了详细的论述。     

Experimental Research on the Load／Unload Response Ratio （LURR） Theory

Implementing acoustic emission experiments with large rock samples, LURR (Load/Unload Response Ratio) theory was studied. The loading conditions in the experiments were designed to simulate the complicated loading process of underground rocks. The damages emerging inside the rock samples were recorded by the acoustic emission technique during the loading process. The experimental results were consistent with prediction by LURR theory. Integrating the changing processes of LURR value Y and the location process of acoustic emission events showed agreement between the variation of LURR value Y and the damage evolution inside the rocks. Furthermore, the high value of Y emerged before the complete breakdown of materials. Therefore, the damage evolution of rock specimen can be quantitatively analyzed with LURR theory, thus the failure of the rock materials and the earthquake occurrence may be predicted. The experimental results gave a further verification of LURR theory.     

冀东柳赞油田古近系沙河街组层序地层及岩相古地理?

柳赞油田位于河北省滦南县与唐海县交界处,是冀东油田的主力油田之一。构造上处于燕山褶皱带前缘，渤海湾盆地南堡凹陷的东部。受柏各庄断层活动及古斜坡地形的影响，该区古近系沙三段地层属于近源快速堆积沉积，分选差，成熟度低，岩相复杂，为典型的扇三角洲沉积。通过对沉积特征和沉积相带展布的分析，建立了工区扇三角洲的沉积模式。以层序地层学原理和方法为手段，应用测井和三维地震资料，通过不整合面、湖泛面等层序界面和沉积旋回的识别，将柳赞油田沙河街组地层划分为4个准层序组，12个准层序，建立了高分辨率的层序地层格架，分析了准层序在垂向上的叠置样式，把准层序组归纳为进积式和退积式两种类型，确定了优质储层在准层序和准层序组中出现的位置及分布规律。论文在分析沙河街组沉积时期古地形、古气候与古生态特征的基础上，应用砂岩厚度等值线图，恢复了柳赞油田古近系沙河街组岩相古地理面貌。研究表明，工区内发育扇三角洲前缘亚相，分支水道是主要的砂体微相，砂体沿北东－南西向延伸，与古物源方向基本一致。     

吉林省通榆县土地沙化现状分析与综合治理

通榆县是吉林省土地沙化最严重的典型县之一 ,沙化土地面积为 19 75 5× 10 4 hm2 ,占吉林省土地总面积的 2 3 0 %。日趋严重的土地沙化 ,己成为这一地区农业和经济可持续发展最为主要的障碍性因子。通榆县近几十年来的土地沙化 ,主要是在自然背景下 ,人为的影响因素强烈干扰所致 ;过度的人为经济活动对资源的破坏是造成本区土地沙化迅速发展的最主要原因。因此 ,必须坚持人与自然和谐共存的原则 ,并辅之以限制人为过度经济活动的配套措施 ,才能有效地防治土地沙化     

乌鲁木齐河东河西矿区煤层气储层特征

乌鲁木齐河东河西矿区早-中侏罗纪富煤带,聚集着丰富的煤层气资源,笔者通过对该区煤层气赋存的地质条件、储层特征、资源量、煤层气保存条件的专门研究,评价出了有利区块,为下一步煤层气勘探提供了依据。本文主要通过实际采样测试,对该区煤储层的含气性、吸附性、孔隙结构、渗透性等进行了系统研究,探讨本区煤层气有利于勘探开发的储层条件。     

Simulation of the Load-Unload Response Ratio and Critical Sensitivity in the Lattice Solid Model

— The Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is an intermediate-term earthquake prediction approach that has shown considerable promise. It involves calculating the ratio of a specified energy release measure during loading and unloading where loading and unloading periods are determined from the earth tide induced perturbations in the Coulomb Failure Stress on optimally oriented faults. In the lead-up to large earthquakes, high LURR values are frequently observed a few months or years prior to the event. These signals may have a similar origin to the observed accelerating seismic moment release (AMR) prior to many large earthquakes or may be due to critical sensitivity of the crust when a large earthquake is imminent. As a first step towards studying the underlying physical mechanism for the LURR observations, numerical studies are conducted using the particle based lattice solid model (LSM) to determine whether LURR observations can be reproduced. The model is initialized as a heterogeneous 2-D block made up of random-sized particles bonded by elastic-brittle links. The system is subjected to uniaxial compression from rigid driving plates on the upper and lower edges of the model. Experiments are conducted using both strain and stress control to load the plates. A sinusoidal stress perturbation is added to the gradual compressional loading to simulate loading and unloading cycles and LURR is calculated. The results reproduce signals similar to those observed in earthquake prediction practice with a high LURR value followed by a sudden drop prior to macroscopic failure of the sample. The results suggest that LURR provides a good predictor for catastrophic failure in elastic-brittle systems and motivate further research to study the underlying physical mechanisms and statistical properties of high LURR values. The results provide encouragement for earthquake prediction research and the use of advanced simulation models to probe the physics of earthquakes.     

成都市土地利用现状遥感调查研究

利用美国陆地卫星TM遥感图像资料，对成都市土地利用现状进行调查研究，全面系统地查明了成都市土地利用状况及其分布规律，分析与评价了土地利用的合理程度，揭示了土地利用中存在的主要问题，并提出了土地资源可持续利用的对策与建议，可为政府有关部门合理利用土地资源，制定国土整治规划提供科学依据。     

北太平洋冬季阻塞性高压对船舶西行航线的影响*

通过对近10年北太平洋冬季阻塞性高压的建立、维持及崩溃的天气形势分析，结合船舶气象导航的原理、气象航线的设计以及影响航线选择的因素，指出了有利于北太平洋冬季西行高纬度航线的阻塞高压形式，为船舶西行选择高纬度航线提供了气象理论依据。     

Load-Unload Response Ratio and Accelerating Moment/Energy Release Critical Region Scaling and Earthquake Prediction

-- The main idea of the Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) is that when a system is stable, its response to loading corresponds to its response to unloading, whereas when the system is approaching an unstable state, the response to loading and unloading becomes quite different. High LURR values and observations of Accelerating Moment/Energy Release (AMR/AER) prior to large earthquakes have led different research groups to suggest intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible and imply that the LURR and AMR/AER observations may have a similar physical origin. To study this possibility, we conducted a retrospective examination of several Australian and Chinese earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from 5.0 to 7.9, including Australia's deadly Newcastle earthquake and the devastating Tangshan earthquake. Both LURR values and best-fit power-law time-to-failure functions were computed using data within a range of distances from the epicenter. Like the best-fit power-law fits in AMR/AER, the LURR value was optimal using data within a certain epicentral distance implying a critical region for LURR. Furthermore, LURR critical region size scales with mainshock magnitude and is similar to the AMR/AER critical region size. These results suggest a common physical origin for both the AMR/AER and LURR observations. Further research may provide clues that yield an understanding of this mechanism and help lead to a solid foundation for intermediate-term earthquake prediction.