Correction to: Observation of a Flare and Filament Eruption in Lyman- α $\alpha $ on 8 September 2011 by the PRoject for OnBoard Autonomy/Large Yield Radiometer (PROBA2/LYRA)

In most of the solar cycles, activity in the northern and southern hemispheres peaks at different times. One hemisphere peaks well before the other, and at least one of the hemispheric maxima frequently does not coincide with the whole sphere maximum. Prediction of the maximum of a hemisphere and the corresponding north–south asymmetry of a solar cycle may help to understand the mechanisms of the solar cycle, the solar-terrestrial relationship, and solar-activity influences on space weather. Here we analysed the sunspot-group data from the Greenwich Photoheliographic Results (GPR) during 1874?–?1976 and Debrecen Photoheliographic Data (DPD) during 1977?–?2017 and studied the cycle-to-cycle variations in the values of 13-month smoothed monthly mean sunspot-group area in the whole sphere (WSGA), northern hemisphere (NSGA), and southern hemisphere (SSGA) at the epochs of maxima of Sunspot Cycles 12?–?24 and at the epochs of maxima of WSGA, NSGA, and SSGA Cycles 12?–?24 (note that solar-cycle variation of a parameter is expressed as a cycle of that parameter). The cosine fits to the values of WSGA, NSGA, and SSGA at the maxima of sunspot, WSGA, NSGA, and SSGA Cycles 12?–?24, and to the values of the corresponding north–south asymmetry, suggest the existence of a ≈132-year periodicity in the activity of the northern hemisphere, a 54?–?66-year periodicity in the activity of the southern hemisphere, and a 50?–?66 year periodicity in the north–south asymmetry in activity at all the aforementioned epochs. By extrapolating the best-fit cosine curves we predicted the amplitudes and the corresponding north–south asymmetry of the 25th WSGA, NSGA, and SSGA cycles. We find that on average Solar Cycle 25 in sunspot-group area would be to some extent smaller than Solar Cycle 24 in sunspot-group area. However, by inputting the predicted amplitudes of the 25th WSGA, NSGA, and SSGA cycles relationship between sunspot-group area and sunspot number we find that the amplitude (\(130\pm 12\)) of Sunspot Cycle 25 would be slightly larger than that of reasonably small Sunspot Cycle 24. Still it confirms that the beginning of the upcoming Gleissberg cycle would take place around Solar Cycle 25. We also find that except at the maximum of NSGA Cycle 25 where the strength of activity in the northern hemisphere would be dominant, the strength of activity in the southern hemisphere would be dominant at the maximum epochs of the 25th sunspot, WSGA, and SSGA cycles.

     

A GIS-based approach to compare economic damages of fluvial flooding in the Neckar River basin under current conditions and future scenarios

Natural Hazards - Fluvial floods can cause significant damages and are expected to increase in magnitude and frequency throughout the twenty-first century due to global warming. Alongside hazard...     

3D NIR spectroscopy at subarcsecond resolution

We present a scientific case approached through high quality 3D NIR spectroscopy performed with CIRPASS, attached to the Gemini South telescope. A binary mass concentration at the nucleus of the galaxy M 83 was suggested by Thatte et al. [A&A 364 (2000) L47] and Mast et al. [BAAA 45 (2002) 98. Astroph#0505264] determined the possible position of the hidden secondary mass concentration with 2D H-alpha kinematics. The preliminary results of the NIR study presented here are based in almost 1500 spectra centered in the wavelength 1.3 μm, with a spectral resolving power of 3200. They allow us to unveil, with 0.36″ (6.4 pc) sampling and subarcsecond resolution, the velocity field in a region of 13″ × 9″ around the optical nucleus. We confirm that the optical nucleus is not located at the most important center of symmetry of the ionized gas velocity field. The largest black hole that could fit to the circular motion in this kinematic center should have a mass not larger than 3 × 10⁶(sin i)⁻¹ M solar masses.     

Short-term effects of the prestige oil spill on the peregrine falcon (Falco peregrinus)

We have monitored the distribution, population status, breeding success, turnover rate and diet of a Peregrine Falcon population in Bizkaia (North of Spain) since 1997. On the 13th November 2002, the tanker Prestige sunk off La Coruña (NW Spain) causing an oil spill that affected the whole of the Cantabrian Coast and the Southwest of France. The total number of birds affected by the Prestige oil spill was expected to be between 115,000 and 230,000, some of them raptors. The loss of clutches during the incubation period increased significantly and was correlated with the loss of females. Moreover, the turnover rate of the population increased from 21% to 30%. The polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon concentrations in the eggs, collected from five nests after they were deserted, ranged from 21.20 ng/g to 461.08 ng/g, values which are high enough to cause the death of the embryos and poisoning of adult birds. The effects of pollution reached inland since some inland-breeding falcons prey on shorebirds that use rivers during their migratory flights. As the Prestige oil spill has clearly resulted in increased rates of adult mortality and reduced fertility, we suggest that the environmental authorities urgently undertake measures aimed at protecting the Peregrine Falcon in Bizkaia.     

Seasonal and ontogenetic changes of mycosporine-like amino acids in planktonic organisms from an alpine lake

We studied the quantitative and qualitative mycosporine-like amino acid (MAA) composition in phytoplankton and the copepod Cyclops abyssorum tatricus from an alpine lake over a 15-month period. Up to eight MAAs were identified in the samples, with shinorine being predominant. The MAAs occurred year round and showed a strong seasonal pattern. Compared with ice-cover periods, concentrations during the summer were on average 3.6 and 3.0 times higher in phytoplankton and C. abyssorum tatricus, respectively. During the summer, the contents of MAAs in phytoplankton decreased with depth, suggesting their photoprotective role. Chlorophyll a-specific concentrations of MAAs in phytoplankton correlated significantly with the incident solar radiation and ultraviolet (UV) water transparency (r(2) ≤ 0.36), however, the strongest relationship was found with water temperature (r(2) = 0.67). In zooplankton, highest contents of MAAs were found in eggs, nauplii, and young copepodids, presumably providing a high level of photoprotection for progeny. Proportions of the dominant MAAs in the copepod showed seasonal and ontogenetic variations, which were consistent with relative changes in the predominant MAA, but not other abundant MAAs, in phytoplankton. Considering a time lag of approximately 1 month between the synthesis and subsequent accumulation of these compounds, MAA concentrations in late copepodid to adult life stages were significantly correlated to those in phytoplankton. Annual patterns in MAAs with high concentrations during periods of elevated environmental stress are consistent with the idea that these compounds play an important role in protecting aquatic organisms against UV damage.     

Detrital and pedogenic magnetic mineral phases in the loess/palaeosol sequence at Lingtai (Central Chinese Loess Plateau)

A detailed rock magnetic investigation of loess/palaeosol samples from the section at Lingtai on the central Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP) is presented. Thermal demagnetisation of isothermal remanent magnetisation (IRM) and Curie temperature measurements suggest the presence of magnetite, maghemite and hematite as remanence carrying components. Bulk and grain size fractionated samples have been analysed using coercivity spectra of remanence acquisition/demagnetisation curves, which identify four main remanence carriers in different grain size fractions of loesses and palaeosols. A linear source mixing model quantifies the contribution of the four components which have been experimentally derived as dominating endmembers in specific grain size fractions. Up to two thirds of the total IRM of the palaeosols are due to slightly oxidised pedogenic magnetite. Two detrital components dominate up to 90% of the IRM of the loess samples and are ascribed to maghemite of different oxidation degree. Detrital hematite is present in all samples and contributes up to 10% of the IRM. The iron content of the grain size fractions gives evidence that iron in pedogenically grown remanence carriers does not originate from the detrital iron oxides, but rather from iron-bearing clays and mafic silicates. The contribution of pedogenic magnetite to the bulk IRM increases with the increasing degree of pedogenesis, which depends in turn on climate change.     

Estimating sand concentrations using ADCP-based acoustic inversion in a large fluvial system characterized by bi-modal suspended-sediment distributions

Quantifying sediment flux within rivers is a challenge for many disciplines due, mainly, to difficulties inherent to traditional sediment sampling methods. These methods are operationally complex, high cost, and high risk. Additionally, the resulting data provide a low spatial and temporal resolution estimate of the total sediment flux, which has impeded advances in the understanding of the hydro-geomorphic characteristics of rivers. Acoustic technologies have been recognized as a leading tool for increasing the resolution of sediment data by relating their echo intensity level measurements to suspended sediment. Further effort is required to robustly test and develop these techniques across a wide range of conditions found in natural river systems. This article aims to evaluate the application of acoustic inversion techniques using commercially available, down-looking acoustic Doppler current profilers (ADCPs) in quantifying suspended sediment in a large sand bed river with varying bi-modal particle size distributions, wash load and suspended-sand ratios, and water stages. To achieve this objective, suspended sediment was physically sampled along the Paraná River, Argentina, under various hydro-sedimentological regimes. Two ADCPs emitting different sound frequencies were used to simultaneously profile echo intensity level within the water column. Using the sonar equation, calibrations were determined between suspended-sand concentrations and acoustic backscatter to solve the inverse problem. The study also analyzed the roles played by each term of the sonar equation, such as ADCP frequency, power supply, instrument constants, and particle size distributions typically found in sand bed rivers, on sediment attenuation and backscatter. Calibrations were successfully developed between corrected backscatter and suspended-sand concentrations for all sites and ADCP frequencies, resulting in mean suspended-sand concentration estimates within about 40% of the mean sampled concentrations. Noise values, calculated using the sonar equation and sediment sample characteristics, were fairly constant across evaluations, suggesting that they could be applied to other sand bed rivers. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessing the significance of wet-canopy evaporation from forests during extreme rainfall events for flood mitigation in mountainous regions of the United Kingdom

There is increased interest in the potential of tree planting to help mitigate flooding using nature-based solutions or natural flood management. However, many publications based upon catchment studies conclude that, as flood magnitude increases, benefit from forest cover declines and is insignificant for extreme flood events. These conclusions conflict with estimates of evaporation loss from forest plot observations of gross rainfall, through fall and stem flow. This study explores data from existing studies to assess the magnitudes of evaporation and attempts to identify the meteorological conditions under which they would be supported. This is achieved using rainfall event data collated from publications and data archives from studies undertaken in temperate environments around the world. The meteorological conditions required to drive the observed evaporation losses are explored theoretically using the Penman–Monteith equation. The results of this theoretical analysis are compared with the prevailing meteorological conditions during large and extreme rainfall events in mountainous regions of the United Kingdom to assess the likely significance of wet canopy evaporation loss. The collated dataset showed that event Ewc losses between approximately 2 and 38% of gross rainfall (1.5 to 39.4 mm day⁻¹) have been observed during large rainfall events (up to 118 mm day⁻¹) and that there are few data for extreme events (>150 mm day⁻¹). Event data greater than 150 mm (reported separately) included similarly high percentage evaporation losses. Theoretical estimates of wet-canopy evaporation indicated that, to reproduce the losses towards the high end of these observations, relative humidity and the aerodynamic resistance for vapour transport needed to be lower than approximately 97.5% and 0.5 to 2 s m⁻¹ respectively. Surface meteorological data during large and extreme rainfall events in the United Kingdom suggest that conditions favourable for high wet-canopy evaporation are not uncommon and indicate that significant evaporation losses during large and extreme events are possible but not for all events and not at all locations. Thus the disparity with the results from catchment studies remains.     

Long term variation in rainfall erosivity in Uruguay: a preliminary Fournier approach

In order to explore the consequences of precipitation increase on soil erosion in Uruguay, the monthly Fournier Index (FI) and the annual Modified Fournier Index (MFI) were developed as a preliminary approach, covering consecutive decadal periods from 1931 to 2000. Rainfall data were used from 13 stations distributed all over the country. MFI shows a decrease in the 1940s, an increase during the 1950s, then a little decrease during the 1960s and 1970s and an increase in the 1980s, remaining near these last values during the 1990s. FI behavior in July and October in the last two decades shows a decrease in the Northeast region of the country—the region with highest annual precipitation—and a slight increase over the Southeast—the region with the lowest annual precipitation and the only region with a winter rainfall maximum. For the core months of winter and early spring there is a decline in erosivity in the Northeast, but an increase in the Southeast. January shows erosivity decreasing in the South during the last two decades. In April there is a peak in precipitation variability all across the country. FI shows an early increase during the 1940s in the Northwest, and generally very low values during the 1970s, with the return of high values in the 1990s, especially in the Northern corner. Results pose a challenge in order to improve research on the erosion problem, since the main source of freshwater nationwide remains surface river flow, which is prone to higher turbidity problems in areas of high soil erosion.     

Potential and limitations of bioenergy for low carbon transitions

Sustaining low CO ₂ emissions pathways to 2100 may rely on electricity production from biomass. We analyze the economic effect of the availability of biomass resources and technologies with and without CCS within a general equilibrium framework. We assess the robustness of bioenergy with and without CCS for reaching the RCP 3.7 target with the hybrid model Imaclim-R. Global consumption is affected by the absence of CCS or biomass options, and biomass is shown to be a possible technological answer to the absence of CCS. As the use of biomass on a large scale might prove unsustainable, we show that early action is a strategy to reduce the need for biomass and enhance economic growth in the long term.