A strong-motion database from the Peru–Chile subduction zone

Earthquake hazard along the Peru–Chile subduction zone is amongst the highest in the world. The development of a database of subduction-zone strong-motion recordings is, therefore, of great importance for ground-motion prediction in this region. Accelerograms recorded by the different networks operators in Peru and Chile have been compiled and processed in a uniform manner, and information on the source parameters of the causative earthquakes, fault-plane geometries and local site conditions at the recording stations has been collected and reviewed to obtain high-quality metadata. The compiled database consists of 98 triaxial ground-motion recordings from 15 subduction-type events with moment magnitudes ranging from 6.3 to 8.4, recorded at 59 different sites in Peru and Chile, between 1966 and 2007. While the database presented in this study is not sufficient for the derivation of a new predictive equation for ground motions from subduction events in the Peru–Chile region, it significantly expands the global database of strong-motion data and associated metadata that can be used in the derivation of predictive equations for subduction environments. Additionally, the compiled database will allow the assessment of existing predictive models for subduction-type events in terms of their suitability for the Peru–Chile region, which directly influences seismic hazard assessment in this region.     

Escaping the climate policy uncertainty trap: options contracts for REDD+

Climate policy uncertainty significantly hinders investments in low-carbon technologies, and the global community is behind schedule to curb carbon emissions. Strong actions will be necessary to limit the increase in global temperatures, and continued delays create risks of escalating climate change damages and future policy costs. These risks are system-wide, long-term and large-scale and thus hard to diversify across firms. Because of its unique scale, cost structure and near-term availability, Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation in developing countries (REDD+) has significant potential to help manage climate policy risks and facilitate the transition to lower greenhouse gas emissions. ‘Call’ options contracts in the form of the right but not the obligation to buy high-quality emissions reduction credits from jurisdictional REDD+ programmes at a predetermined price per ton of CO₂ could help unlock this potential despite the current lack of carbon markets that accept REDD+ for compliance. This approach could provide a globally important cost-containment mechanism and insurance for firms against higher future carbon prices, while channelling finance to avoid deforestation until policy uncertainties decline and carbon markets scale up.

Key policy insights

• Climate policy uncertainty discourages abatement investments, exposing firms to an escalating systemic risk of future rapid increases in emission control expenditures.

• This situation poses a risk of an abatement ‘short squeeze,’ paralleling the case in financial markets when prices jump sharply as investors rush to square accounts on an investment they have sold ‘short’, one they have bet against and promised to repay later in anticipation of falling prices.

• There is likely to be a willingness to pay for mechanisms that hedge the risks of abruptly rising carbon prices, in particular for ‘call’ options, the right but not the obligation to buy high-quality emissions reduction credits at a predetermined price, due to the significantly lower upfront capital expenditure compared to other hedging alternatives.

• Establishing rules as soon as possible for compliance market acceptance of high-quality emissions reductions credits from REDD+ would facilitate REDD+ transactions, including via options-based contracts, which could help fill the gap of uncertain climate policies in the short and medium term.

     

Nonequilibrium effects in models of three-phase flow in porous media

In this paper we extend to three-phase flow the nonequilibrium formalism proposed by Barenblatt and co-workers for two-phase porous media flow. The underlying idea is to include nonequilibrium effects by introducing a pair of effective water and gas saturations, which are linked to the actual saturations by a local evolution equation. We illustrate and analyze how nonequilibrium effects lead to qualitative and quantitative differences in the solution of the three-phase flow equations.     

Ecological classification of European transitional waters in the North-East Atlantic eco-region

A new methodology to classify European North-East Atlantic transitional waters into ecological types has been developed based on the most important hydrological and morphological features that are likely to determine the ecology of aquatic systems in transitional waters. Hydrological indicators help identifying if a transitional water area is dominated by fresh or sea water and/or by intertidal or subtidal areas, while morphological indicators allow an estimation of the complexity of the transitional water and the diversity of the habitats involved. Twelve transitional waters of the southern Bay of Biscay were classified using this methodology and the five hydro-morphological types obtained were validated with benthic macro-invertebrate data. Transitional waters with a complex morphology showed the highest values of species diversity, while those with a smaller tidal influence showed lower species diversity. The ‘Scrobicularia’ and ‘Abra’ assemblages, previously identified in the study area, were found to be related to different types of transitional waters. The ‘Abra’ assemblage only appeared in estuaries with a complex morphology and dominated by tidal influences, while the ‘Scrobicularia’ assemblage was detected in all the transitional waters except for a single coastal lagoon. This classification of transitional waters may therefore be useful to establish the biological reference conditions needed for European Directives.     

Zooplankton succession during extraordinary drought–flood cycles: A case study in a South American floodplain lake

We examined the zooplankton abundance and composition of Laguna Grande, a floodplain wetland of the Lower Paraná Basin (Argentina), during an extraordinary drought–flood cycle that affected both the environment and the biological conditions of the lake. Low waters were characterised by remarkably high conductivities and pH values, and high phytoplankton and bacterioplankton abundances with cyanobacterial blooms, while high waters showed opposite features. In relation to zooplankton, the mean abundances of all the taxonomic groups (rotifers, cladocerans, copepods, ciliates, and heterotrophic nanoflagellates) were slightly higher at low waters. Major changes were observed in the specific composition of metazooplankton: the euryhaline species assemblage that dominated in the dry warm period was replaced by several oligohaline littoral and planktonic species characteristic of the Paraná River Basin, when the water level rose. Mean species richness values at high waters doubled those of low waters and were directly correlated to water depth. Most of the rotifers of the genus Brachionus and the cladoceran Moina micrura switched from parthenogenetic to sexual reproduction during low waters, as a response to a harsh environment and crowding. We suggest that the main changes in the environmental conditions in this eutrophic floodplain lake are driven by the hydrology, which regulates the zooplankton succession. The herein described shifts in the zooplankton structure and dynamics of Laguna Grande over an extraordinary drought–flood cycle contribute to the understanding of the processes that might occur under the scenarios predicted by climate change models.     

Optimal Stopping Location of a High Speed Train using GIS and Multicriteria Decision‐making

This article develops a methodology using a Geographical Information System (GIS) to evaluate the best location to stop a high speed passenger train when faced with an undesired event. The proposed method is based on multicriteria decision‐making where different stretches of line which could be chosen as the stopping point are ranked depending on the characteristics of the line, the surrounding area and its accessibility for equipment. The method was integrated into the GIS to develop an expert support system for decision makers faced with different kinds of undesired events. It has been applied to a case study on the high speed line between Valladolid and Madrid (Spain). The proposed method is new and has not previously been applied to high speed railway networks and could be adapted to other case studies. The speed of the algorithm provides an almost instantaneous reply within seconds of an emergency situation occurring. The method can therefore be part of an overall support system for decision making in undesired rail events.     

Short-term effects of the prestige oil spill on the peregrine falcon (Falco peregrinus)

We have monitored the distribution, population status, breeding success, turnover rate and diet of a Peregrine Falcon population in Bizkaia (North of Spain) since 1997. On the 13th November 2002, the tanker Prestige sunk off La Coruña (NW Spain) causing an oil spill that affected the whole of the Cantabrian Coast and the Southwest of France. The total number of birds affected by the Prestige oil spill was expected to be between 115,000 and 230,000, some of them raptors. The loss of clutches during the incubation period increased significantly and was correlated with the loss of females. Moreover, the turnover rate of the population increased from 21% to 30%. The polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon concentrations in the eggs, collected from five nests after they were deserted, ranged from 21.20 ng/g to 461.08 ng/g, values which are high enough to cause the death of the embryos and poisoning of adult birds. The effects of pollution reached inland since some inland-breeding falcons prey on shorebirds that use rivers during their migratory flights. As the Prestige oil spill has clearly resulted in increased rates of adult mortality and reduced fertility, we suggest that the environmental authorities urgently undertake measures aimed at protecting the Peregrine Falcon in Bizkaia.     

Seasonal and ontogenetic changes of mycosporine-like amino acids in planktonic organisms from an alpine lake

We studied the quantitative and qualitative mycosporine-like amino acid (MAA) composition in phytoplankton and the copepod Cyclops abyssorum tatricus from an alpine lake over a 15-month period. Up to eight MAAs were identified in the samples, with shinorine being predominant. The MAAs occurred year round and showed a strong seasonal pattern. Compared with ice-cover periods, concentrations during the summer were on average 3.6 and 3.0 times higher in phytoplankton and C. abyssorum tatricus, respectively. During the summer, the contents of MAAs in phytoplankton decreased with depth, suggesting their photoprotective role. Chlorophyll a-specific concentrations of MAAs in phytoplankton correlated significantly with the incident solar radiation and ultraviolet (UV) water transparency (r(2) ≤ 0.36), however, the strongest relationship was found with water temperature (r(2) = 0.67). In zooplankton, highest contents of MAAs were found in eggs, nauplii, and young copepodids, presumably providing a high level of photoprotection for progeny. Proportions of the dominant MAAs in the copepod showed seasonal and ontogenetic variations, which were consistent with relative changes in the predominant MAA, but not other abundant MAAs, in phytoplankton. Considering a time lag of approximately 1 month between the synthesis and subsequent accumulation of these compounds, MAA concentrations in late copepodid to adult life stages were significantly correlated to those in phytoplankton. Annual patterns in MAAs with high concentrations during periods of elevated environmental stress are consistent with the idea that these compounds play an important role in protecting aquatic organisms against UV damage.