Chrono‐stratigraphy of the Upper Pleistocene and Holocene archaeological sequence in Cova Gran (south‐eastern Pre‐Pyrenees,Iberian Peninsula)

The Cova Gran de Santa Linya (Lleida, Spain) is a recently discovered site, with a broad chrono‐cultural sequence that contains archaeological levels dating to the Middle Palaeolithic, Early Upper Palaeolithic, Late Upper Palaeolithic, Neolithic and Early Bronze Age. We present the chronometric and stratigraphic context of these occupations, which were dated using ¹⁴C accelerator mass spectrometry and thermoluminescence. The sequence provides important indicators that aid in the reconstruction of the history of human occupation on the southern slopes of the Spanish Pyrenees over the past 50,000 years. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Water level as the main driver of the alternation between a free-floating plant and a phytoplankton dominated state: a long-term study in a floodplain lake

This 10-year field data study explores the relevance of water level fluctuations in driving the shift from a free-floating plant (FFP) to a phytoplankton dominated state in a shallow floodplain lake from the Lower Paraná River. The multi-year natural flood pulse pattern in the Lower Paraná River drove the ecosystem regime from a FFP-dominant state during very high waters (1998–1999) to absolute phytoplankton prevalence with blooms of nitrogen fixing Cyanobacteria during extreme low waters (2008–2009). Satellite images support the observed changes over the decade and show the decrease of the surface lake area covered by FFP as well as the modification of the spectral firm in open waters, which documents the significant increases in phytoplankton chlorophyll a concentrations. We discuss the possibility that, despite a slow eutrophication in these highly vegetated systems, water level changes and not nutrients account for the shift from a floating macrophyte community to phytoplankton dominance. Cyclic shifts may occur in response to the seasonal floodpulse, but more strongly, as indicated by our results, in association to the extreme drought and flood events related to the El Niño Southern Oscillation, which is linked to discharge anomalies in the Paraná River.     

Identification of arid phases during the last 50 cal. ka BP from the Fuentillejo maar‐lacustrine record (Campo de Calatrava Volcanic Field,Spain)

Geochemical (element analysis, molecular analysis of organic compounds), physical, palynological, mineralogical and sedimentary facies analysis were performed to characterise the sedimentary record in Fuentillejo maar‐lake in the Central Spanish Volcanic Field of Campo de Calatrava, in order to reconstruct the palaeoenvironmental and palaeoclimatic processes which controlled vegetation patterns and deposition of different sedimentary facies. The upper 20 m of core FUENT‐1 show variations in clastic input, water chemistry, vegetation and organic fraction sources in the lake throughout the Late Pleistocene and Holocene. The temporal framework provided by ¹⁴C accelerator mass spectrometry dating allows assigning the sequence to the last 50 cal. ka BP. Arid phases identified in the FUENT‐1 sequence are correlated to Heinrich events (HE) and to stadials of the Dansgaard/Oeschger (D/O) cycles. Siliciclastic facies with high magnetic susceptibility values, high Juniperus pollen content, a low Paq index (aquatic macrophysics proxy index), a decrease in the relative percentage of the n‐C₂₇ and an increase in the n‐C₃₁ alkanes are indicative of arid and colder climatic events related to HE 2, HE 1 and the Younger Dryas (YD). Similar short cold and arid phases during the Holocene were identified at 9.2–8.6, 7.5–7 and 5.5–5 cal. ka BP. In dolomite–mud facies, the pollen data show an increase in the herbs component, mainly – Chenopodiaceae, Artemisia and Ephedra – steppe taxa; a low Paq index, a decrease in the relative percentage of the n‐C₂₇ alkane and an increase in the n‐C₃₁ alkane are also observed. This facies was probably the result of lower lake levels and more saline–alkaline conditions, which can be interpreted as linked to arid–warm periods. These warm and arid phases were more frequent during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3 and the interstadials of MIS 2. HE 4, HE 2, HE 1 and the YD in core FUENT‐1 were immediately followed by increases of warm steppe pollen assemblages that document rapid warming similar to the D/O cycles but do not imply increasing humidity in the area. Fuentillejo hydrology is controlled by changes in the atmospheric and oceanic systems that operated on the North Atlantic region at millennial scale during the last 50 cal. ka BP. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spring drought prediction based on winter NAO and global SST in Portugal

The aim of this paper is to test the ability of neural network approaches to hindcast the spring standardized precipitation index on a 6‐month time scale (SPI6) in Portugal, based on winter large‐scale climatic indices. For this purpose, the linkage of the spring SPI time series with the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the sea surface temperature (SST) was investigated by means of maps of the correlation coefficient for the period from October 1910 to September 2004. The results indicate that the winter NAO is a good predictor for the SPI6 of the spring (SPI6 finishing in April, May and June, SPI6_April, SPI6_May and SPI6_June, respectively) for the northern, central and southern regions of Portugal. The winter SST1 (area of the Mediterranean Sea) must only be considered for the northern region, and the winter SST3 (area of the North Atlantic between Iberia and North America) only for the southern region. Spatial maps of predictive SPI6 for April, May and June were created and validated. The neural models explained more than 81% of the total variance for the SPI6_April and SPI6_May and more than 64% of the total variance for the SPI6_June. Probability maps were also developed considering the values predicted by the neural methods for the spring months and all drought categories (moderate, severe and extreme). These maps indicating the probability of droughts can provide valuable support for the integrated planning and management of water resources throughout Portugal. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Structure and tectonic history of the foreland basins of southernmost South America

The common elements and differences of the neighboring Austral (Magallanes), Malvinas and South Malvinas (South Falkland) sedimentary basins are described and analyzed. The tectonic history of these basins involves Triassic to Jurassic crustal stretching, an ensuing Early Cretaceous thermal subsidence in the retroarc, followed by a Late Cretaceous–Paleogene compressional phase, and a Neogene to present-day deactivation of the fold–thrust belt dominated by wrench deformation. A concomitant Late Cretaceous onset of the foreland phase in the three basins and an integrated history during the Late Cretaceous–Cenozoic are proposed. The main lower Paleocene–lower Eocene initial foredeep depocenters were bounding the basement domain and are now deformed into the thin-skinned fold–thrust belts. A few extensional depocenters developed in the Austral and Malvinas basins during late Paleocene–early Eocene times due to a temporary extensional regime resulting from an acceleration in the separation rate between South America and Antarctica preceding the initial opening of the Drake Passage. These extensional depocenters were superimposed to the previous distal foredeep depocenter, postdating the initiation of the foredeep phase and the onset of compressional deformation. Another pervasive set of normal faults of Paleocene to Recent age that can be recognized throughout the basins are interpreted to be a consequence of flexural bending of the lithosphere, in agreement with a previous study from South Malvinas basin. Contractional deformation was replaced by transpressive kinematics during the Oligocene due to a major tectonic plate reorganization. Presently, while the South Malvinas basin is dominated by the transpressive uplift of its active margin with minor sediment supply, the westward basins undergo localized development of pull-apart depocenters and transpressional uplift of previous structures. The effective elastic thickness of the lithosphere for different sections of each basin is calculated using a dynamic finite element numerical model that simulates the lithospheric response to advancing tectonic load with active sedimentation.     

Real-time flood forecasting of the Tiber river in Rome

An adaptive, conceptual model for real-time flood forecasting of the Tiber river in Rome is proposed. This model simulates both rainfall-runoff transformations, to reproduce the contributions of 37 ungauged sub-basins that covered about 30% of the catchment area, and flood routing processes in the hydrographic network. The adaptive component of the model concerns the rainfall-runoff analysis: at any time step the whole set of the model parameters is recalibrated by minimizing the objective function constituted by the sum of the squares of the differences between observed and computed water surface elevations (or discharges). The proposed model was tested through application under real-time forecasting conditions for three historical flood events. To assess the forecasting accuracy, to support the decision maker and to reduce the possibility of false or missed warnings, confidence intervals of the forecasted water surface elevations (or discharges), computed according to a Monte Carlo procedure, are provided. The evaluation of errors in the prediction of peak values, of coefficients of persistence and of the amplitude of confidence intervals of prediction shows the possibility to develop a flood forecast model with a lead time of 12 h, which is useful for civil protection actions.     

Information background of 11th–15th centuries earthquakes located by the current catalogues in Vrancea (Romania)

Earthquake catalogues for Romania supply for 11th–15th century earthquakes located in the region of Vrancea records that consist of a complete set of parameters, including magnitude and depth. Scope of this paper is to verify the reliability and consistency of these parameters with the informative background as explicitly referenced by the catalogues. After retrieving the original sources they mention, the set of data appeared to be related almost exclusively to the Russian plain and too poor to be at the very origin of the parameter assessment. Data for 19th–20th century earthquakes, such as instrumental locations and CMT solutions, added to the understanding of the macroseismic response of the Russian plain to Vrancea earthquakes. On the one hand, the investigation and analysis of historical earthquake records for the fourteen events listed by the catalogues in the 11th–15th centuries has shown that for three earthquakes (1022, 1038, 1258) no primary sources could be traced, and three more earthquakes (1091, 1170 and 1328) are attested only by scarcely reliable records and had to be classified as doubtful, and one (1473) is simply a duplication of the 1471 event. On the other hand, the availability of data on recent earthquakes that may be compared to historical ones in terms of macroseismic effects allowed the authors to agree with the previous catalogue compilers’ solution with regard to both magnitude and depth of the past earthquakes for which do exist reliable primary historical records.