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21.
What the Sunspot Record Tells Us About Space Climate 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
The records concerning the number, sizes, and positions of sunspots provide a direct means of characterizing solar activity
over nearly 400 years. Sunspot numbers are strongly correlated with modern measures of solar activity including: 10.7-cm radio
flux, total irradiance, X-ray flares, sunspot area, the baseline level of geomagnetic activity, and the flux of galactic cosmic
rays. The Group Sunspot Number provides information on 27 sunspot cycles, far more than any of the modern measures of solar
activity, and enough to provide important details about long-term variations in solar activity or “Space Climate.” The sunspot
record shows: 1) sunspot cycles have periods of 131± 14 months with a normal distribution; 2) sunspot cycles are asymmetric
with a fast rise and slow decline; 3) the rise time from minimum to maximum decreases with cycle amplitude; 4) large amplitude
cycles are preceded by short period cycles; 5) large amplitude cycles are preceded by high minima; 6) although the two hemispheres
remain linked in phase, there are significant asymmetries in the activity in each hemisphere; 7) the rate at which the active
latitudes drift toward the equator is anti-correlated with the cycle period; 8) the rate at which the active latitudes drift
toward the equator is positively correlated with the amplitude of the cycle after the next; 9) there has been a significant
secular increase in the amplitudes of the sunspot cycles since the end of the Maunder Minimum (1715); and 10) there is weak
evidence for a quasi-periodic variation in the sunspot cycle amplitudes with a period of about 90 years. These characteristics
indicate that the next solar cycle should have a maximum smoothed sunspot number of about 145 ± 30 in 2010 while the following
cycle should have a maximum of about 70 ± 30 in 2023. 相似文献
22.
23.
B. A. Ivanov 《Solar System Research》2005,39(5):381-409
Multi-ring impact basins have been found on the surfaces of almost all planetary bodies in the Solar system with solid crusts. The details of their formation mechanism are still unclear. We present results of our numerical modeling of the formation of the largest known terrestrial impact craters. The geological and geophysical data on these structures accumulated over many decades are used to place constraints on the parameters of available numerical models with a dual purpose: (i) to choose parameters in available mechanical models for the crustal response of planetary bodies to a large impact and (ii) to use numerical modeling to refine the possible range of original diameters and the morphology of partially eroded terrestrial craters. We present numerical modeling results for the Vredefort, Sudbury, Chicxulub, and Popigai impact craters and compare these results with available geological and geophysical information. 相似文献
24.
Column density profiles for CN, C3, C2 and NH have been determined from a long-slit CCD spectrum of periodic comet P/Schaumasse (1992x). Comparisons of these profiles with Haser models indicate that the ratios of the CN, C3 and C2 production rates are typical for a short-period comet. Although the scale lengths for NH and its parent species are uncertain, the results indicate that the production rate for NH is much greater than for either C2 or CN. 相似文献
25.
C. Beaugé 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》1996,64(4):313-350
Starting with a simple Taylor-based expansion of the inverse of the distance between two bodies, we are able to obtain a series expansion of the disturbing function of the three-body problem (planar elliptic case) which is valid for all points of the phase space outside the immediate vicinity of the collision points. In particular, the expansion is valid for very high values of the eccentricity of the perturbed body. Furthermore, in the case of an interior mean-motion resonant configuration, the above-mentioned expression is easily averaged with respect to the synodic period, yielding once again a global expansion of (R) valid for very high eccentricities.Comparisons between these results and the numerically computed exact function are presented for various resonances and values of the eccentricity. Maximum errors are determined in each case and their origin is established. Lastly, we discuss the applicability of the present expansion to practical problems. 相似文献
26.
Results of several fits of the lunar theory ELP 2000-82B and of Moons' theory of libration are presented. The theories are fitted both to JPL numerical integrations and to LLR observations 相似文献
27.
The orbits of (69230) Hermes and 2002 SY50 are similar and the Earth approaches both of them twice: at the end of October the local orbital minimum distances are smaller
than 0.007 AU, and at the end of April the distances are smaller than 0.04 AU. This gives us opportunities to observe the
meteors associated with these asteroids. Using the geocentric parameters of the orbital close encounters (the theoretical
radiants) and our D
N
distance function (Valsecchi et al. Mon. Not. R. Astron. Soc. 304 (1999) 743), we searched for meteoroids originated by Hermes and 2002 SY50. A search among 1830 good quality photographic meteors gave negative results: we found no meteor dynamically similar to Hermes
or 2002 SY50. In a second search, done in a set of 62150 radio meteors, we applied two methods (M1, M2) and in both cases we found two
streams; the streams found with the M1 method had 43 and 30 members, those found with the M2 method had 39 and 14 members.
However, these results do not look convincing, due to the small number of common members in the corresponding streams. We
therefore conclude that amongst the IAU meteors used in our search there are no compact streams associated with Hermes and
2002 SY50. 相似文献
28.
A highly automated moving object detection package 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
29.
The elm decline of 5000 14C yr ago has been the most widely discussed phenomenon in post‐glacial vegetation history. This pan‐European reduction of elm populations, echoed in the decimation of elmwoods in Europe during the twentieth century, has attracted a series of interrelated hypotheses involving climate change, human activity, disease and soil deterioration. The elm bark beetle (Scolytus scolytus L.) is an essential component of disease explanations. We present evidence for the presence of the beetle over a prolonged period (ca. 7950–4910 yr BP [8800–5660 cal. yr BP]) from a lowland raised mire deposit in northeast Scotland, with its final appearance at this site, and the first and only appearance in another mire of a single scolytid find, around the time of the elm decline. The subfossil S. scolytus finds are not only the first from Scotland, but they also represent the most comprehensive sequence of finds anywhere. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
30.
TANGYa XIEJiasui SUNHui 《山地科学学报》2004,1(1):38-45
Dry valleys are a striking geographic landscape in Hengduan Mountains Region and are characterized by low rainfall, desert type of vegetation and fragile environment. Past efforts and resources have been concentrated mainly on rehabilitation of degraded ecosystem and fragile environment, particularly reforestation, while socio-economic development has been largely overlooked. Despite successes in pocket areas, the overall trend of unsustainability and environmental deterioration are continuing. It is important to understand that uplift of the Tibetan Plateau is the root cause of development of dry valleys, and development and formation of dry valleys is a natural process. Human intervention has played a secondary role in development of dry valleys and degradation of dry valleys though human intervention in many cases has speeded up environmental degradation of the dry valleys. It is important to understand that dry valleys are climatic enclaves and an integrated approach that combines rehabilitation of degraded ecosystems and socio-economic development should be adopted if the overall goal of sustainable development of dry valleys is to be achieved. Promotion of niche-based cash crops, rural energy including hydropower, solar energy, biogas and fuelwood plantation is recommended as the priority activities. 相似文献