A Regional Survey of the Extent and Magnitude of Eutrophication in Mediterranean Estuaries of Southern California,USA

The magnitude and extent of eutrophication was assessed at 27 segments in 23 estuaries in the Southern California Bight (SCB) between October 2008 and 2009. We applied thresholds from the existing assessment frameworks from both the European Union and the U.S. National Eutrophication Assessment to measurements of three indicators [macroalgae biomass and cover, phytoplankton biomass, and dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration] to categorize eutrophic condition in each estuary. Based on these frameworks, a large fraction of segments had moderate or worse eutrophic condition—78 % based on macroalgae, 39 % for phytoplankton, and 63 % for DO. Macroalgal biomass exceeding 70 g dw m^?2 and 25 % cover was found at 52 % of sites during any sampling event and in 33 % of segments for 8 weeks or longer, a duration found to negatively impact benthic infauna. Duration of hypoxic events (DO?<?4 mg L^?1) was typically short, with most events less than one day; although 53 % of segments had at least one event longer than 24 h. Assessment frameworks of eutrophic condition are likely to evolve over time as the body of literature on eutrophication grows, including aspects such as the applicability of indicators in specific habitat types, indicator thresholds, and how event frequency and duration are incorporated. This paper informs this debate by discussing how eutrophic conditions in SCB estuaries are categorized using different indicators and thresholds. To this end, categorization of estuarine eutrophic condition was found to be very sensitive to the type of threshold, how data are integrated to represent duration or spatial extent, and how indicators are used as multiple lines of evidence.     

Indicators of abundance and spatial distribution of lobsters (Homarus americanus) from standard traps

Indicators of abundance for American lobster (Homarus americanus) based on 8 years of trap catch rates (catch‐per‐unit‐effort, CPUE) were evaluated. Volunteer harvesters recorded count, sex and size of lobsters captured in standard traps on a daily basis during the fishing season in coastal Nova Scotia, Canada. We examined the extent to which standardised CPUEs of prerecruits predict the future catches of legal sizes and explored spatial patterns in the abundance of lobsters of different size and reproductive status. The standardised CPUE of prerecruits was correlated with legal size catches in only one of five areas examined. This area had a strong signal of incoming recruitment. Improving the capacity of prerecruit CPUE for predicting legal size catches several years later most likely lies with model incorporation of variables associated with catchability. The spatial distribution of catch rates showed that the area with the highest historical landings per unit area also had the highest relative abundance of prerecruits. The spatial distribution data point to further areas of research related to recruitment processes in lobster in coastal Nova Scotia.     

Evidence of a significant wind‐driven circulation in Akaroa Harbour. Part 1: Data obtained during the September‐November, 1998 field survey

Part 1 (P1) of a two‐part study of Akaroa Harbour, Bank's Peninsula, New Zealand, presents observational evidence of the development of a significant wind‐driven circulation in association with strong northerly and southerly wind events. These are common throughout the year though during the 3‐month field campaign (during the Southern Hemisphere spring of 1998) northerly wind events dominated. This wind‐driven circulation resulted in the weakening of density stratification within the Harbour, mixing the water column to depth over a significant portion of the study area.     

Correlates of hazards education for youth: a replication study

Youth and families have been identified as particularly vulnerable to the effects of hazardous events. This study examined correlates of hazards education involvement for youth. Participants were 407 youth between the ages of 7 and 18 who filled out several indices reflecting hazards awareness, risk perceptions, psychological factors, knowledge, and adoption of hazards adjustments and family emergency plans. Additionally, interactive factors were assessed, the extent to which education programs encouraged youth to discuss their learning with parents and whether such discussions occurred. Overall, findings replicated and extended previous research. First, younger children were generally seen to be more prepared; girls, more knowledgeable. Second, youth involved in education programs had significantly higher levels of correct knowledge of readiness and response behaviors, lower levels of incorrect knowledge, and reported more home-based hazards adjustments. One important area where no differences were seen was in the area of family emergency planning. Predictors of increased educational benefits included program recency, encouragement to interact with parents and, to a slightly lesser extent, parent discussion willingness. Combined with previous research indicating that even simple and brief reading and discussion programs can produce tangible benefits, findings here encourage the incorporation of easy-to-do features that can increase benefits for youth and their families.     

Contemporary fiddling in human geography while Rome burns: has quantitative analysis been largely abandoned--and should it be?

Chris Hamnett [Geoforum 34 (2003) 1] has certainly been provocative in his claim that the nature of much contemporary human geography means that the discipline ‘will cease to be taken seriously in the world beyond the narrow confines of academe’ (p. 1). Much of his critique focuses on what he terms ‘post-modernism, new cultural geography and the interpretative turn’ (p. 2) practiced by those he identifies as ‘the new intellectual dilettanti’ (p. 3). In responding, however, our concern is not with that aspect of his critique, but rather with Hamnett’s misrepresentation of one section of contemporary human geography.     

Past and future polar amplification of climate change: climate model intercomparisons and ice-core constraints

Climate model simulations available from the PMIP1, PMIP2 and CMIP (IPCC-AR4) intercomparison projects for past and future climate change simulations are examined in terms of polar temperature changes in comparison to global temperature changes and with respect to pre-industrial reference simulations. For the mid-Holocene (MH, 6,000 years ago), the models are forced by changes in the Earth’s orbital parameters. The MH PMIP1 atmosphere-only simulations conducted with sea surface temperatures fixed to modern conditions show no MH consistent response for the poles, whereas the new PMIP2 coupled atmosphere–ocean climate models systematically simulate a significant MH warming both for Greenland (but smaller than ice-core based estimates) and Antarctica (consistent with the range of ice-core based range). In both PMIP1 and PMIP2, the MH annual mean changes in global temperature are negligible, consistent with the MH orbital forcing. The simulated last glacial maximum (LGM, 21,000 years ago) to pre-industrial change in global mean temperature ranges between 3 and 7°C in PMIP1 and PMIP2 model runs, similar to the range of temperature change expected from a quadrupling of atmospheric CO₂ concentrations in the CMIP simulations. Both LGM and future climate simulations are associated with a polar amplification of climate change. The range of glacial polar amplification in Greenland is strongly dependent on the ice sheet elevation changes prescribed to the climate models. All PMIP2 simulations systematically underestimate the reconstructed glacial–interglacial Greenland temperature change, while some of the simulations do capture the reconstructed glacial–interglacial Antarctic temperature change. Uncertainties in the prescribed central ice cap elevation cannot account for the temperature change underestimation by climate models. The variety of climate model sensitivities enables the exploration of the relative changes in polar temperature with respect to changes in global temperatures. Simulated changes of polar temperatures are strongly related to changes in simulated global temperatures for both future and LGM climates, confirming that ice-core-based reconstructions provide quantitative insights on global climate changes. An erratum to this article can be found at     

Reduction of forecast error for global numerical weather prediction by The Florida State University (FSU) Superensemble

Summary The skill of the FSU Superensemble technique as applied to global numerical weather prediction is evaluated extensively in this paper. The global mass and motion fields for year 2000 and precipitation over the domain 55S to 55N for year 2001, as predicted by the Superensemble, the ensemble member models, and the mean of the ensemble members, are evaluated by standard statistical measures of skill to determine the performance of the Superensemble in relation to the other models. The member models are global forecast models from 5 of the worlds operational forecast centers in addition to the FSU global spectral model. For precipitation 5 additional versions of the FSU global model are utilized in the ensemble, as defined by different initial conditions provided by various physical initialization algorithms. Statistical parameters calculated for the mass and motion fields include root mean square (RMS) error, systematic error (or bias), and anomaly correlation. These are applied to the mean sea level pressure, 500hPa heights, and the wind fields at 850hPa and 200hPa. Statistical parameters that were calculated for precipitation include RMS error, correlation, equitable threat score (ETS), and a special definition of bias appropriate for the precipitation field. For the mass and motion fields the performance of the Superensemble was considered for the annual global case, as well as for each hemisphere (north and south) and for each of the four seasons. For precipitation only the annual case was considered over the domain cited above.For the mass and motion fields the RMS calculations showed the Superensemble to be superior (to have the smallest total forecast error) in all comparisons to the ensemble member models, and to be superior to the ensemble mean in the vast majority of comparisons. Performance in comparison to the other models was generally better in the Southern Hemisphere than in the Northern Hemisphere, and better in the transition seasons of fall and spring than in the extreme seasons of winter and summer. The Superensemble had the best success with mean sea level pressure, followed in order by 500hPa geopotential heights, 850hPa winds, and 200hPa winds.In the calculations of 500hPa geopotential height anomaly correlation the Superensemble had higher scores in all comparisons to the ensemble member models, as well as higher scores in the majority of comparisons to the ensemble mean. As with the RMS error results, the Superensemble performed better in the Southern Hemisphere than in the Northern Hemisphere, and better in fall than in summer, in comparison to the other models. The superior anomaly correlation scores of the Superensemble attest to the ability of the model to forecast daily perturbations from the climatological means, perturbations that are associated with transient synoptic scale features, given the horizontal resolution in the forecast models.In terms of systematic error reduction the Superensemble produces its most impressive results. Annual global mean sea-level pressure systematic errors for day 5 forecasts are generally in the range of ±1hPa (compared to errors as high as 8hPa in other models), and day 2 forecasts of 500hPa geopotential height produced systematic errors generally in the range of ±10 meters (compared to errors as high as 60 meters in other models). The Superensemble was able to reduce systematic errors in forecasts of a variety of important features in the global mass and motion fields: surface equatorial trough, wave amplitude in geopotential heights at 500hPa, trade winds and Somali Jet at 850hPa, mid-latitude westerlies, subtropical jet, and Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ) at 200hPa.In terms of forecasting precipitation the Superensemble outperforms all ensemble member models and the ensemble mean in terms of RMS error, correlation coefficient, equitable threat score, and bias. The superior correlation scores indicate that the Superensemble is more reliable than the other models in predicting perturbations in the area distribution of precipitation, perturbations that are essentially associated with migrant synoptic scale disturbances, considering the horizontal resolution of the forecast models.The Superensemble is a valuable tool for significantly improving upon the global model forecasts of the worlds operational forecast centers. These forecasts are used daily as important guidance in making weather forecasts in all regions of the world. This paper will demonstrate that the Superensemble improves upon the ensemble member model forecasts: (1) in a statistical sense considering broad areas of the globe, (2) in a synoptic climatology sense through focus on the improved forecasts of climatological features seen in the global mass and motion fields, (3) in a synoptic sense through use of anomaly correlation and correlation coefficient where improvement is demonstrated in the forecasts of perturbations from mean fields which are essentially associated with transient synoptic scale disturbances.     

The Ensemble Kalman Filter for Groundwater Plume Characterization: A Case Study

The Kalman filter is an efficient data assimilation tool to refine an estimate of a state variable using measured data and the variable's correlations in space and/or time. The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) (Evensen 2004, 2009) is a Kalman filter variant that employs Monte Carlo analysis to define the correlations that help to refine the updated state. While use of EnKF in hydrology is somewhat limited, it has been successfully applied in other fields of engineering (e.g., oil reservoir modeling, weather forecasting). Here, EnKF is used to refine a simulated groundwater tetrachloroethylene (TCE) plume that underlies the Tooele Army Depot‐North (TEAD‐N) in Utah, based on observations of TCE in the aquifer. The resulting EnKF‐based assimilated plume is simulated forward in time to predict future plume migration. The correlations that underpin EnKF updating implicitly contain information about how the plume developed over time under the influence of complex site hydrology and variable source history, as they are predicated on multiple realizations of a well‐calibrated numerical groundwater flow and transport model. The EnKF methodology is compared to an ordinary kriging‐based assimilation method with respect to the accurate representation of plume concentrations in order to determine the relative efficacy of EnKF for water quality data assimilation.     

A comparison of geochemical information obtained from two fluvial bed sediment fractions

 A total of 121 bed sediment samples were collected from a 5.8-km stretch of Manoa Stream, Hawaii. Samples were physically partitioned into two grain-size fractions, <63 μm and 63–125 μm, acid digested and analyzed by ICP-AES and FAAS. Non-parametric matched-pair statistical testing and correlation analysis were used to assess differences and strengths of association between the two fractions for Al, Ba, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb, Ti and Zn. Results indicated statistically significant differences between fractions for all elements except Mn. Concentrations were significantly greater in the <63 μm fraction for Al, Cu, Pb, Ti and Zn, while Ba, Fe and Ni were higher in the 63–125 μm fraction. Though some elements had statistically significant differences between fractions (Al, Ba, Fe and Zn) percentage differences were in the range of analytical precision of the instrument and thus differences were not practically significant. Correlation analysis indicated strong positive associations for all elements between the two fractions (p<0.0001). Three contamination indices indicated similar degrees of pollution for each size fraction for four elements having an anthropogenic signal (Ba, Cu, Pb and Zn). The environmental information obtained from the 63–125 μm fraction was essentially equivalent to that from the <63 μm fraction. In this system it is clear that both bed sediment fractions indicate anthropogenic enrichment of trace metals, especially Pb, and further supports previous research that has found that aquatic sediments are critical median for tracing sources of pollution. Received: 17 August 1998 · Accepted: 30 October 1998