The role of prior model calibration on predictions with ensemble Kalman filter

This paper, based on a real world case study (Limmat aquifer, Switzerland), compares inverse groundwater flow models calibrated with specified numbers of monitoring head locations. These models are updated in real time with the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and the prediction improvement is assessed in relation to the amount of monitoring locations used for calibration and updating. The prediction errors of the models calibrated in transient state are smaller if the amount of monitoring locations used for the calibration is larger. For highly dynamic groundwater flow systems a transient calibration is recommended as a model calibrated in steady state can lead to worse results than a noncalibrated model with a well-chosen uniform conductivity. The model predictions can be improved further with the assimilation of new measurement data from on-line sensors with the EnKF. Within all the studied models the reduction of 1-day hydraulic head prediction error (in terms of mean absolute error [MAE]) with EnKF lies between 31% (assimilation of head data from 5 locations) and 72% (assimilation of head data from 85 locations). The largest prediction improvements are expected for models that were calibrated with only a limited amount of historical information. It is worthwhile to update the model even with few monitoring locations as it seems that the error reduction with EnKF decreases exponentially with the amount of monitoring locations used. These results prove the feasibility of data assimilation with EnKF also for a real world case and show that improved predictions of groundwater levels can be obtained.     

Influence of wind upon water quality in Liverpool Bay

Comprehensive distribution patterns of physical and chemical characteristics have been obtained from a series of cruises in Liverpool Bay. The marked feature of these distributions was their temporal variability, suggesting that the surface residual circulation is also temporally variable. The influence of wind stress upon the circulation pattern and hence water quality of this sea area is illustrated.     

Developing a modern pollen–climate calibration data set for Norway

Bjune, A. E., Birks, H. J. B., Peglar, S. M. & Odland, A. 2010: Developing a modern pollen–climate calibration data set for Norway. Boreas, Vol. 39, pp. 674–688. 10.1111/j.1502‐3885.2010.00158.x. ISSN 0300‐9483. Modern pollen–climate data sets consisting of modern pollen assemblages and modern climate data (mean July temperature and mean annual precipitation) have been developed for Norway based on 191 lakes and 321 lakes. The original 191‐lake data set was designed to optimize the distribution of the lakes sampled along the mean July temperature gradient, thereby fulfilling one of the most critical assumptions of weighted‐averaging regression and calibration and its relative, weighted‐averaging partial least‐squares regression. A further 130 surface samples of comparable taphonomy, taxonomic detail and analyst became available as a result of other projects. These 130 samples, all from new lakes, were added to the 191‐lake data set to create the 321‐lake data set. The collection and construction of these data sets are outlined. Numerical analyses involving generalized linear modelling, constrained ordination techniques, weighted‐averaging partial least‐squares regression, and two different cross‐validation procedures are used to asses the effects of increasing the size of the calibration data set from 191 to 321 lakes. The two data sets are used to reconstruct mean July temperature and mean annual precipitation for a Holocene site in northwest Norway and a Lateglacial site in west‐central Norway. Overall, little is to be gained by increasing the modern data set beyond about 200 lakes in terms of modern model performance statistics, but the down‐core reconstructions show less between‐sample variability and are thus potentially more plausible and realistic when based on the 321‐lake data set.     

Beitrag zur quantitativen Analyse von Mineralphasen mittels Röntgendiffraktion

Zusammenfassung Bei der Durchführung quantitativer Gemenge-Analysen mit Hilfe der Röntgendiffraktionsmethode kann man den Massenschwächungskoeffizienten (^*) verwenden, den man bei der Röntgenfluoreszenzanalyse Röhrenhauptlinienverfahren vonSchroll-Stepon erhalten hat. Er wird von der Wellenlänge der Röntgenfluoreszenzstreustrahlung auf die Wellenlänge der Diffraktionsröhre transformiert. Ein Intensitäts-Konzentrationsdiagramm, in dem die Intensität der gewählten Diffraktionslinie durch das Produkt von Intensität und dem jeweiligen Wert von ^* ersetzt wird, ergibt eine allgemeingültige Eichgerade. Als Beispiel werden Messungen an Zweistoffsystemen wie Magnesit-Quarz, Albit-Quarz, Calcit-Quarz, Stilpnomelan-Quarz und Siderit-Quarz angeführt.Die vorgeschlagene Methode ist für kombinierte Diffraktions- und Röntgenfluoreszenzanalysen sehr zweckmäßig.

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Summary Applicating the quantitative X-ray-diffraction-analysis für mixtures of minerals the use of the mass absorption coefficient (^*) is possible, which is received by the X-ray-fluorescence-analysis of the same sample following the method proposed by the authors. The mass absorption coefficients must be transformed to the new wave length of the X-ray-diffraction tube. In the intensity-concentration-diagram the intensity is substituted by the product of intensity and mass absorption coefficient. An uniform standard line is received, as the measurement of quartz shows in the systems of two-substances, such as magnesite-quartz, albite-quartz, calcite-quartz, stilpnomelan-quartz and siderite-quartz.The proposed method is very useful for the combined X-ray-diffraction and X-ray fluorescence analysis.

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Mit 6 Textabbildungen     

Principles of tabling

The mechanism of concentration on the shaking table is discussed and a fresh attempt is made to obtain the theoretical model describing the velocity of a fluid in depth and time when in contact with a symmetrically reciprocating surface.The significance of the many design and operational variables and their interrelationships are examined. The various areas where the shaking table plays its role are then considered.The relevant features of micropanner, superpanner and the subsequent macropanner and pulsepanner are also treated since they all, like the shaking table, have the differential motion in common.     

Structural characteristics of zooplankton of the Shardarinskoe Reservoir and their use in water quality assessment

Data on the Shardarinskoe Reservoir are used to assess the indicator role of zooplankton community under unstable hydrological regime. The structural characteristics of zooplankton featured significant seasonal variations. The averaged indices characterized reservoir water quality at the level of mesotrophic and eutrophic water bodies. The possible use of cyclopidas to characterize toxic pollution of water is discussed.     

Fault structures and their geoelectric parameters in the epicentral zone of the 27 September 2003 Chuya earthquake (Gorny Altai) from resistivity data

This paper presents an integrated measurement technique based on DC methods (vertical electrical sounding, electrical resistivity tomography) which was used to identify faults and determine their geoelectric parameters in the western part of the Chuya basin. New information on the structure of the Chagan River valley located in the zone of the disastrous 27 September 2003 Chuya earthquake has been obtained from the results of these methods. Geoelectric cross-sections of the sedimentary sequence and the upper part of the basement were obtained from VES data, showing the block structure of the study area. Electrical resistivity tomography sections confirm the presence of a major fault between basement blocks of different heights and indicate the presence of faults bounding the valley on its right side and in the southwestern part.