NO<Subscript>3</Subscript> Vertical Profile Measurements from Remote Sensing Balloon-Borne Spectrometers and Comparison with Model Calculations

Eleven vertical profiles of stratospheric NO₃ have been obtained since 1992 using the AMON and SALOMON balloon-borne UV-visible spectrometers. The measurements are compared to the SLIMCAT 3D model and calculations based on the steady-state hypothesis for NO₃. The calculations cannot reproduce some parts of the profiles which exhibit strong concentration fluctuations over few kilometres, as a consequence of the dependence of NO₃ on local temperature variations. A statistical use of the data allows us to estimate the influence of the temperature dependence of the absorption cross-section on the data analysis, and the validity of the recommended reaction rates available in the literature. Discrepancies exist between the model based on recommended kinetics and observations at warmer temperatures. Nevertheless, the analysis is biased by local temperature inhomogeneities, and only a low-resolution vertical shape of the NO₃ profiles can be retrieved.     

Effect of surge uncertainty on probabilistically computed dune erosion

To assess the flood protection capacity of dunes in The Netherlands, a semi-probabilistic dune-erosion prediction method is currently in use in which uncertainties in input parameters of an empirical dune erosion model were taken into account, with the exception of the uncertainty in the extreme surge distribution. Previous research has shown that the surge is by far the most influential parameter affecting erosion in the currently used erosion model, which is due both to the influence of the surge level itself and to the conditional dependence of the wave height and period on the surge level in the probabilistic model used for the assessment. Furthermore, the distribution of extreme surge levels has been shown to contain large statistical uncertainty. The inclusion of uncertainty in input variables into probabilistic models results in more extreme events (in this case erosion) for the same exceedance probability, largely due to the incorporation of higher values of the input variables. The goal of the research described in this paper was to determine the impact of the inclusion of uncertainty in the extreme surge distribution on the estimate of critical erosion (erosion associated with an exceedance frequency of 10^− 5 per year). The uncertainty in the surge distributions was estimated and parameterized, and was incorporated into the probabilistic model. A reduction in uncertainty was subsequently imposed to estimate what value a reduction in uncertainty can offer, in terms of the impact on critical erosion. The probabilistic technique first-order reliability method (FORM) was applied to determine the relative contribution of the uncertainty in the surge distribution (as well as the remaining stochastic variables) to the critical erosion. The impact of the inclusion of uncertainty in the surge distribution on the critical retreat distance was found to be substantial with increases ranging from 34% to 93% of the original estimate at five locations along the Dutch coast. The reduced uncertainty showed a more subtle impact, with increases in critical retreat distance ranging from 10% to 26% of the original estimate. The relative importance analysis showed that the uncertainty in the surge distribution has a strong influence, with the relative importance ranging from 10% to 23% for an exceedance frequency of 10^− 5 per year.     

An analysis of 900 rotation curves of southern sky spiral galaxies: Do rotation curves fall into discrete classes?

One of the largest rotation curve data bases of spiral galaxies currently available is that provided by Persic& Salucci (1995; hereafter, PS) which has been derived by them from unreduced rotation curve data of 965 southern sky spirals obtained by Mathewson, Ford& Buchhorn (1992; hereafter, MFB). Of the original sample of 965 galaxies, the observations on 900 were considered by PS to be good enough for rotation curve studies, and the present analysis concerns itself with these 900 rotation curves. The analysis is performed within the context of the hypothesis that velocity fields within spiral discs can be described by generalized power-laws. Rotation curve data was found to impose an extremely strong and detailed correlation between the free parameters of the power-law model, and this correlation accounts for virtually all the variation in the pivotal diagram. In the process, the analysis reveals completely unexpected structure which indicates that rotation curves can be partitioned into well-defined discrete subclasses.     

The equilibrium constant of NO2 with N2O4 and the temperature dependence of the visible spectrum of NO2: A critical review and the implications for measurements of NO2 in the polar stratosphere

Measurements of stratospheric NO₂ by ground-based visible spectrometers rely on laboratory measurements of absorption cross-sections. We review low-temperature laboratory measurements, which disagree by amounts claimed to be significant. Our recalculation of their errors shows that in general disagreements are not significant and that errors in the ratios of cross-sections at low to room temperature are between ±3% and ±8.8%. Of these errors, up to ±3.5% was contributed by errors in the equilibrium constant,K _p, in those measurements where the pressure was above 0.1 mbar.We review measurements and calculations ofK _p, which were accurate to ±5% from 300 to 233 K. Each method was potentially flawed. For example, infrared measurements of the partial pressure of NO₂ ignored the dependence of absorption on total pressure. From thermodynamic theory, formulae forK _pcan be derived from expressions for the variation of heat capacity with temperature. Contrary to common belief, coefficients in the formulae used by spectroscopists were not derived from the thermodynamic quantities. Rather, they were fitted to measurements or to calculations. Hence, they are empirical and it is dangerous to extrapolate below 233 K, the lowest temperature of the measurements.There are no measurements of NO₂ cross-sections below 230 K. Extrapolation of these cross-sections to analysis of measurements of NO₂ at the low temperatures of the Arctic and Antarctic stratosphere is also dangerous. For satisfactory analysis of polar spectra, the NO₂ cross-sections should be measured at temperatures down to 190 K with a relative accuracy of ±1%. This difficult experiment would need a cell of minimum length 32 m whose length can be adjusted. Because their effects are circular, many errors cannot be removed simply. Although circular errors also arise in the measurements ofK _pand of the infrared spectrum, their weights differ from those in the visible spectrum. The optimum experiment might therefore simultaneously measure the visible and infrared spectra andK _p.     

The discovery of major new phenomenology in spiral discs and its theoretical meaning

The work described in this paper has its origins in a speculation on the realization of Mach's Principle – specifically, in the formulation of two questions: (a) Can a globally inertial space &; time be associated with a non-trivial global matter distribution? (b) If so, what are the general properties of such a global distribution?This analysis (Roscoe, [2002a] (astro-ph/0107397)), led us to conclude that a globally inertial space &; time can be associated with a non-trivial global matter distribution, and that this distribution is necessarily fractal with D=2; that is mass ～ R ². Gravitational processes are then to be understood in terms of perturbations of this equilibrium space-matter-time structure. We give a very brief overview of these gravitational processes, specifically applied to spiral galaxies. These considerations led directly to the discovery of a completely new phenomenology in spiral discs reported in detail in Roscoe [2002b] (astro-ph/0107300). We review this phenomenology, and give a brief account of its theoretical explanation.     

The Risk of Large Volcanic Eruptions and the Impact of this Risk on Future Ozone Depletion

Ozone depletion at mid-latitudes is caused by reactivehalogens from man-made halocarbons. The stratosphericsulphate aerosol which follows large volcaniceruptions enhances (multiplies) this ozone depletion(it has no effect on ozone without halocarbons). Mid-latitude depletion almost doubled for the twoyears after Mt. Pinatubo. Although the MontrealProtocol is expected to reduce atmospheric amounts ofhalocarbons in the 21st century, stratospheric ozonewill be at risk of depletion enhancement by largeeruptions for the next 50 years. Mechanisms ofvolcanoes suggest that large eruptions are random andthat their global rate is constant for severalcenturies. Measurements of large eruptions during thelast 1000 years in ice cores have a remarkable fit toa Poisson distribution, reinforcing the conclusionthat the global incidence is random and at a constantrate for this period. From this rate, the probabilityof one or more eruptions with at least the ozone-lossenhancement of Pinatubo is 58 % in 50 years. Thisprobability is large enough to be of serious concernfor future mid-latitude ozone loss.     

Parallel initial orbit determination using angles-only observation pairs

We propose a type of admissible-region analysis for track initiation in multi-satellite problems when angles are the primary observable. Pairs of optical observations are used to calculate candidate orbits via a Lambert solver by hypothesizing range values. The method is attractive because it allows multiple levels of parallelization of the track-initiation process. Orbital element partitions are introduced to divide the admissible region into smaller search spaces to be processed on individual computer nodes. For a specified rectangular partition in the space of orbital elements, constraints are developed to bound the values of range that will lead to initial orbit hypotheses (data association hypotheses) associated with that partition. These bounds allow us to parallelize the generation of candidate orbits, because each element-space partition can be handled independently of the others. Several constraints are developed and shown to limit the range pair hypotheses effectively to the constrained admissible region based on the orbital element partitions. Examples are provided to highlight the topology of the proposed constraints.     

Slant Column Measurements of O3 and NO2 During the NDSC Intercomparison of Zenith-Sky UV-Visible Spectrometers in June 1996

In June 1996, 16 UV-visible sensors from 11 institutes measured spectra of the zenith sky for more than 10 days. Spectra were analysed in real-time to determine slant column amounts of O3 and NO2. Spectra of Hg lamps and lasers were measured, and the amount of NO2 in a cell was determined by each spectrometer. Some spectra were re-analysed after obvious errors were found. Slant columns were compared in two ways: by examining regression analyses against comparison instruments over the whole range of solar zenith angles; and by taking fractional differences from a comparison instrument at solar zenith angles between 85° and 91°. Regression identified which pairs of instruments were most consistent, and so which could be used as universal comparison instruments. For O3, regression slopes for the whole campaign agreed within 5% for most instruments despite the use of different cross-sections and wavelength intervals, whereas similar agreement was only achieved for NO2 when the same cross-sections and wavelength intervals were used and only one half-day's data was analysed. Mean fractional differences in NO2 from a comparison instrument fall within ±7% (1-sigma) for most instruments, with standard deviations of the mean differences averaging 4.5%. Mean differences in O3 fall within ±2.5% (1- sigma) for most instruments, with standard deviations of the mean differences averaging 2%. Measurements of NO2 in the cell had similar agreement to measurements of NO2 in the atmosphere, but for some instruments measurements with cell and atmosphere relative to a comparison instrument disagreed by more than the error bars.     

Intercomparison of remote measurements of stratospheric NO and NO2

During the 1982 and 1983 Balloon Intercomparison Campaigns, the vertical profile of stratospheric NO₂ was measured remotely by nine instruments and that of NO by two. Total overhead columns were measured by two more instruments. Between 30 and 35km, where measurements overlapped, agreement between NO profiles was within ±30%, which is better than the accuracies claimed by the experimenters. Between 35 and 40km there was similarly good agreement between NO₂ profiles, but below 30km, differences of greater than a factor three were found. In the second Campaign, NO₂ values from most instruments agreed within their quoted errors, except that the Oxford radiometer gave much lower values; but the first Campaign and the column measurements show a more uniform spread of results.These differences below 30km could not be resolved, but new laboratory measurements are planned which should do so.