Automatic Recognition of Landslides Based on Neural Network Analysis of Seismic Signals: An Application to the Monitoring of Stromboli Volcano (Southern Italy)

In the last 9 years, the amount and the quality of geophysical and volcanological observations of Stromboli's' activity have undergone a marked increase. This new information highlighted that the landslides on the Sciara del Fuoco flank are tightly linked to the volcanic activity. Actually, at the beginning of the December 28, 2002, effusive eruption, the seismic monitoring network was less dense than now, and therefore it is not known if there was an increase in the landslide rate before the eruption. Despite this, it is known that a big landslide occurred 2 days after the beginning of the eruption which caused a tsunami (December 30, 2002). More recently, the effusive eruption in February 2007 was preceded by an increase in landslides on the Sciara del Fuoco flank, which were recorded by the seismological monitoring system that had been improved after the 2002–2003 crisis. These episodes led us to believe that monitoring the Sciara del Fuoco flank instability is an important topic, and that landslides might be significant short-term precursors of effusive eruptions at the Stromboli volcano. To automatically detect landslide signals, we have developed a specialized neural algorithm. This can distinguish between landslides and the other types of seismic signals usually recorded at the Stromboli volcano (i.e., explosion quakes and volcanic tremor). The discrimination results show an average performance of 98.67 %. According to the experience of the crisis of 2007, to identify changes that can be considered as precursors of effusive eruptions, we set up an automatic decision-making method based on the neural network responses. This method can operate on a continuous data stream. It calculates a landslide percentage index (LPI) that depends on the number of records that are classified by the net as landslides over a given time interval. We tested the method on February 27, 2007, including the beginning of the effusive phase. The index showed an increase as early as at 09:00 UTC on that day and reached its maximum value (100 %) at 12:00, about 40 min before the onset of the eruption. After the beginning of the effusive phase, the index remains high due to the blocks that roll down along the slope from the front of the lava flow. On the basis of these tests, we propose a decision-making method that is able to recognize a trend in the LPI similar to that of 2007 eruption, allowing the identification of precursors of effusive phases at the Stromboli volcano.     

The 1877–1878 El Niño episode: associated impacts in South America

At times when attention on climate issues is strongly focused on the assessment of potential impacts of future climate change due to the intensification of the planetary greenhouse effect, it is perhaps pertinent to look back and explore the consequences of past climate variability. In this article we examine a large disruption in global climate that occurred during 1877–1878, when human influence was negligible. The mechanisms explaining this global disturbance are not well established, but there is considerable evidence that the major El Niño episode that started by the end of 1876 and peaked during the 1877–1878 boreal winter contributed significantly to it. The associated regional climate anomalies were extremely destructive, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere, where starvation due to intense droughts in Asia, South-East Asia and Africa took the lives of more than 20 million people. In South America regional precipitation anomalies were typical of El Niño events, with rainfall deficit and droughts in the northern portion of the continent as well as in northeast Brazil and the highlands of the central Andes (Altiplano). In contrast, anomalously intense rainfall and flooding episodes were reported for the coastal areas of southern Ecuador and Northern Perú, as well as along the extratropical West coast of the continent (central Chile, 30° S–40° S), and in the Paraná basin in the southeast region. By far the most devastating impacts in terms of suffering and loss of life occurred in the semiarid region of northeast Brazil where several hundreds of thousands of people died from starvation and diseases during the drought that started in 1877.     

Lateglacial and Holocene palaeoenvironments at Sierra La Madera,northwestern Mexico: Sharp signals of Younger Dryas and North American monsoon

During the last glacial termination, the climate system experienced intense global variations whose causes and impacts are not fully defined, particularly for low latitudes. The northwestern Mexico Sky Islands present a climate-sensitive ideal setting to record palaeoecological and palaeoclimatic changes due to their physiographic complexity and location in the ecotone between temperate and tropical ecosystems. High-resolution pollen analysis and a detailed sedimentological study were conducted at the Ciénega Tonibabi tropical thorn scrub site. The 15 540–0 cal a bp nearly continuous record shows that the North Atlantic Ocean did have a cold and humid climatic influence during the glacial stages of the end of the Pleistocene, including a sharp pulse during the Younger Dryas. However, a shift to the Pacific Ocean influence occurred during the Holocene, which led to the development of the El Niño conditions prevailing today. Colder and warmer phases follow one another with higher or lower winter precipitation, including a sharp Bølling–Allerød and development and intensification of the North American monsoon. They are reflected in hydrological changes as well as in the advances, retreats and intermingling of coniferous forests and tropical thorn scrub.