Selection criteria for linear regression models to estimate individual tree biomasses in the Atlantic Rain Forest,Brazil

Background

Biomass models are useful for several purposes, especially for quantifying carbon stocks and dynamics in forests. Selecting appropriate equations from a fitted model is a process which can involves several criteria, some widely used and others used to a lesser extent. This study analyzes six selection criteria for models fitted to six sets of individual biomass collected from woody indigenous species of the Tropical Atlantic Rain Forest in Brazil. Six models were examined and the respective fitted equations evaluated by the residual sum of squares, adjusted coefficient of determination, absolute and relative estimates of the standard error of estimate, and Akaike and Schwartz (Bayesian) information criteria. The aim of this study was to analyze the numeric behavior of these model selection criteria and discuss the ease of interpretation of them. The importance of residual analysis in model selection is stressed.

Results

The adjusted coefficient of determination (\( R^{2}_{adj.} \)) and the standard error of estimate in percentage (Syx%) are relative model selection criteria and are not affected by sample size and scale of the response variable. The sum of squared residuals (SSR), the absolute standard error of estimate (Syx), the Akaike information criterion and the Schwartz information criterion, in turn, depend on these quantities. The best fit model was always the same within a given data set regardless the model selection criteria considered (except for SSR in two cases), indicating they tend to converge to a common result. However, such criteria are not always closely related across different data sets. General model selection criteria are indicative of the average goodness of fit, but do not capture bias and outlier effects. Graphical residual analysis is a useful tool to this detection and must always be used in model selection.

Conclusions

It is concluded that the criteria for model selection tend to lead to a common result, regardless their mathematical formulation and statistical significance. Relative measures of goodness of fitting are easier to interpret than the absolute ones. Careful graphical residual analysis must always be used to confirm the performance of the models.

     

Microbiological composition of native and exotic clams from Tagus estuary: Effect of season and environmental parameters

The influence of seasonal and environmental parameters on the occurrence of bacteria was investigated in two clam species (Venerupis pullastra and Ruditapes philippinarum), water and sediment from the Tagus estuary. Total viable counts (TVC), Escherichia coli, Salmonella spp. and Vibrio spp. were evaluated during one-year. Overall, significant seasonal variations were found in both sampling sites, especially for E. coli and Vibrio spp. levels. In summer, significantly higher Vibrio spp. levels were found in R. philippinarum and sediment samples, but not in V. pullastra clams and water samples. In contrast, significantly higher TVC and E. coli levels were observed in winter months in water and sediment samples. Salmonella spp. was generally isolated when higher levels of E. coli were detected, particularly in R. philippinarum. This study is useful for authorities to develop monitoring strategies for coastal contamination and to estimate human health risks associated with the consumption of bivalves.     

The Son Poc rockfall (Mallorca,Spain) on the 6th of March 2013: 3D simulation

The Son Poc rockfall took place on the 6th of March 2013 in the municipality of Bunyola, on the southern side of the Tramuntana Range (Mallorca) and after a rainy and cold period on the region. A volume of rock of 4.000 m³ was detached from the cliff crowning the peak falling down by toppling. The impact of the boulder caused its fragmentation, and numerous boulders bounced and rolled downslope with volumes from 1 to 35 m³, following two trajectories: southwest (SW) and southeast (SE). The SE trajectory, with a larger runout (376 m), reached an urban area, where some of the boulders hit the roofs and walls of nearby houses, stopping others in their gardening areas. Fortunately, no fatalities occurred despite of the presence of some people at that moment, but the event caused great concern in a region which lives from and for tourism. The Son Poc rockfall has been simulated using RocPro3D software which uses GIS technology to produce 3D rockfall trajectories lines, estimated velocity and energy of falling blocks, as well as bounce heights, impacts, and stopping points. The results are in agreement with field observations and with a very good accuracy between real and modeled outcomes.     

Marsh benthic Foraminifera response to estuarine hydrological balance driven by climate variability over the last 2000 yr (Minho estuary,NW Portugal)

A high-resolution study of a marsh sedimentary sequence from the Minho estuary provides a new palaeoenvironmental reconstruction from NW Iberian based on geological proxies supported by historical and instrumental climatic records. A low-salinity tidal flat, dominated by Trochamminita salsa, Haplophragmoides spp. and Cribrostomoides spp., prevailed from AD 140–1360 (Roman Warm Period, Dark Ages, Medieval Climatic Anomaly). This sheltered environment was affected by high hydrodynamic episodes, marked by the increase in silt/clay ratio, decrease of organic matter, and poor and weakly preserved foraminiferal assemblages, suggesting enhanced river runoff. The establishment of low marsh began at AD 1380. This low-salinity environment, marked by colder and wet conditions, persisted from AD 1410–1770 (Little Ice Age), when foraminiferal density increased significantly. Haplophragmoides manilaensis and Trochamminita salsa mark the transition from low to high marsh at AD 1730. Since AD 1780 the abundances of salt marsh species (Jadammina macrescens, Trochammina inflata) increased, accompanied by a decrease in foraminiferal density, reflecting climate instability, when droughts alternate with severe floods. SW Europe marsh foraminifera respond to the hydrological balance, controlled by climatic variability modes (e.g., NAO) and solar activity, thus contributing to the understanding of NE Atlantic climate dynamics.     

Till fabric and grain-size analysis of glacial sequences in the Upper Sil River Basin,Cantabrian Mountains,NW Spain

Fabric and grain-size analysis of eight deposits present in the Upper Sil River Basin palaeoglacial system of northwest Spain were used to interpret till types and to reconstruct the glacial paleoprocess history of this region. They are represented by lodgement, deformation, and melt-out tills. The first, representative of glacial advance stages, present cluster fabrics and are generally composed of poorly sorted and finer sediments. Melt-out and deformation tills, representative of stages of glacial stability followed by fast recession, present transitional to girdle fabrics and are composed of poorly sorted coarser sediments. In any case, multiple criteria, including lithological, clast-shape, or structural data, support these directional and grain-size observations. These sequences, most of them located in the snout area of the Sil palaeoglacier, are important in the reconstruction of glacial dynamics due to poor preservation of landforms related to the maximum glacial advance. This palaeoglacial system was formed by multiple tributaries and had an extension of over 450 km², with the Sil paleoglacier being 51 km long during its maximum glacial advance.     

Supraglacial Debris Supply in the Cuerpo de Hombre paleoglacier (Spanish Central System): Reconstruction and Interpretation of a Rock Avalanche Event

During the deglaciation stages of the last glacial period a rock avalanche took place on the glacier that occupied the upper sector of the Cuerpo de Hombre Valley (Sierra de Béjar). The material displaced during the avalanche fell onto the ice, was transported by the glacier and later deposited as supraglacial ablation till. The cause of the avalanche was the decompression of the valley slopes after they were freed from the glacier ice (stress relaxation). Reconstruction of the ice masses has been carried out to quantify the stress relaxation that produced the collapse. The rock avalanche took place on a lithologically homogeneous slope with a dense fracture network. The avalanche left a 0.4 ha scar on the slope with a volume of displaced material of 623 ± 15 × 10³ m³. The deposit is an accumulation of large, angular, heterometric boulders (1–100 m³ in volume) with a coarse pebble‐size matrix. The avalanche can be explained as a relaxation process. This implies rock decompression once the glacier retreat left the wall ice free (debuttressing). Calculations show that the avalanche took place where the decompression stresses were highest (130–170 kPa). In the Spanish Central System paleoglaciers the largest accumulation of morainic deposits occurred after the glacial maximum and the earliest stages of the ice retreat. The process described here is used as an example to formulate a hypothesis that the largest accumulations of tills were formed in relation to enhanced slope dynamics once some glacier retreat had occurred.     

Assessment of environmental hazards at abandoned mining sites: A case study in Sardinia,Italy

In the last two centuries, several Pb–Zn mines were active in the Rio Mannu basin near Narcao (SW Sardinia, Italy), but are now abandoned. These abandoned mines pose a serious risk to the population and required an assessment of the hazard sources and the contaminant pathways in the area. The characterization plan of the Rio Mannu basin was carried out according to Italian protocols. Specifically, samples of soil, stream sediment, fine-grained ore-processing waste (from washery and flotation processes), surface water and groundwater have been analyzed in order to assess the levels of contamination in each mine area and the risks in the plains surrounding the site. Several potential chemical contaminants were considered both in solid materials and water samples. The Rosas mine was recognized as the most contaminated area in the basin, due to the presence of a large tailing pond, some fine-grained waste piles and two mine adits with concentrations of the toxic elements As, Cd, Cu, Pb, Sb and Zn exceeding Italian regulatory standards. The dispersion of contaminants occurs downstream from the small stream draining the area. In case of heavy rain the runoff into the streamlet transports the contaminated material far into the plain. The results of this study show that the characterization plan is a relatively cheap tool for establishing mitigation actions, prior to the realization of a complete, and usually expensive, remediation project at abandoned mine sites. Urgent recommended actions in the Rio Mannu basin include the treatment of the adit water prior to its discharge into the Rio Barisonis; the construction of drainage barriers on waste piles to reduce runoff and solid transport into the Rio Barisonis; the consolidation of the earthen dam containing the tailing pond of Rosas to avoid the deepening of erosion furrows that may threaten its stability.     

Functional outlier detection by a local depth with application to NO<Subscript><Emphasis Type="Italic">x</Emphasis></Subscript> levels

This paper proposes methods to detect outliers in functional data sets and the task of identifying atypical curves is carried out using the recently proposed kernelized functional spatial depth (KFSD). KFSD is a local depth that can be used to order the curves of a sample from the most to the least central, and since outliers are usually among the least central curves, we present a probabilistic result which allows to select a threshold value for KFSD such that curves with depth values lower than the threshold are detected as outliers. Based on this result, we propose three new outlier detection procedures. The results of a simulation study show that our proposals generally outperform a battery of competitors. We apply our procedures to a real data set consisting in daily curves of emission levels of nitrogen oxides (NO\(_{x}\)) since it is of interest to identify abnormal NO\(_{x}\) levels to take necessary environmental political actions.