Impact of complexity on daily and multi-step forecasting of streamflow with chaotic,stochastic, and black-box models

Despite significant research advances achieved during the last decades, seemingly inconsistent forecasting results related to stochastic, chaotic, and black-box approaches have been reported. Herein, we attempt to address the entropy/complexity resulting from hydrological and climatological conditions. Accordingly, mutual information function, correlation dimension, averaged false nearest neighbor with E1 and E2 quantities, and complexity analysis that uses sample entropy coupled with iterative amplitude adjusted Fourier transform were employed as nonlinear deterministic identification tools. We investigated forecasting of daily streamflow for three climatologically different Swedish rivers, Helge, Ljusnan, and Kalix Rivers using self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR), k-nearest neighbor (k-nn), and artificial neural networks (ANN). The results suggest that the streamflow in these rivers during the 1957–2012 period exhibited dynamics from low to high complexity. Specifically, (1) lower complexity lead to higher predictability at all lead-times and the models’ worst performances were obtained for the most complex streamflow (Ljusnan River), (2) ANN was the best model for 1-day ahead forecasting independent of complexity, (3) SETAR was the best model for 7-day ahead forecasting by means of performance indices, especially for less complexity, (4) the largest error propagation was obtained with the k-nn and ANN and thus these models should be carefully used beyond 2-day forecasting, and (5) higher number input variables except for the dominant variables made insignificant impact on forecasting performances for ANN and k-nn models.     

Rock physics model for seismic velocity & fluid substitution in sub-resolution interbedded sand–shale sequences

The measured geophysical response of sand – shale sequences is an average over multiple layers when the tool resolution (seismic or well log) is coarser than the scale of sand – shale mixing. Shale can be found within sand – shale sequences as laminations, dispersed in sand pores, as well as load bearing clasts. We present a rock physics framework to model seismic/sonic properties of sub-resolution interbedded shaly sands using the so-called solid and mineral substitution models. This modelling approach stays consistent with the conceptual model of the Thomas–Stieber approach for estimating volumetric properties of shaly sands; thus, this work connects established well log data-based petrophysical workflows with quantitative interpretation of seismic data for modelling hydrocarbon signature in sand – shale sequences. We present applications of the new model to infer thickness of sand – shale lamination (i.e., net to gross) and other volumetric properties using seismic data. Another application of the new approach is fluid substitution in sub-resolution interbedded sand–shale sequences that operate directly at the measurement scale without the need to downscale; such a procedure has many practical advantages over the approach of “first-downscale-and-then-upscale” as it is not very sensitive to errors in estimated sand fraction and end member sand/shale properties and remains stable at small sand/shale fractions.     

Seismic on floating ice: data acquisition versus flexural wave noise

Geophysical surveying of the Arctic will become increasingly important in future prospecting and monitoring of the terrestrial and adjacent areas in this hemisphere. Seismic data acquired on floating ice are hampered with extensive noise due to ice vibrations related to highly dispersive ice flexural waves generated by the seismic source. Several experiments have been conducted on floating ice in van Mijenfjorden in Svalbard in the Norwegian Arctic to specifically analyse the extent of flexural waves recorded with various seismic receivers and sources deployed both on top of ice and in the water below. The data show that flexural waves are severely damped at 5 m or deeper below the ice and hydrophone data suffer less from these vibrations compared with data recorded on the ice. Aliasing of single receiver hydrophone data can to some extent be suppressed using an in-line line source of detonating cord. Experiments on ice on shallow water show prominent guided wave modes often referred to as Scholte waves propagating along the seabed. In this case, both flexural and Scholte waves interfere and make a complicated pattern of coherent noise. On shallow water, the positioning and type of the seismic source must be evaluated with respect to the coherent noise generated by these waves. Geophone strings of 25 m effectively suppress both flexural and Scholte waves due to their relative short wavelengths. An airgun generates relative more low-frequency energy than a surface source of detonating cord. Accordingly, seismic mapping of deep seismic horizons seem to be best achieved using geophone strings of such length and an airgun source. For shallow targets, the use of hydrophones in combination with detonating cord is an appropriate solution. Seismic surveying in the Arctic always have to follow environmental restrictions of not disturbing or harming wildlife and not causing permanent footprints into the vulnerable tundra, which implies that the choice of seismic acquisition strategy might occur as a trade-off between optimum data quality and environmental constraints.     

Late Palaeozoic red beds elucidate fluvial architectures preserving large woody debris in the seasonal tropics of central Pangaea

Fluvial red beds containing anatomically preserved large woody debris shed new light on seasonally dry biomes of the Pennsylvanian–Permian transition and elucidate the concurrence of river depositional systems and vegetation. As a result, the occurrence, distribution and preservation of petrified large woody debris accumulations are considered crucial to understanding the role of arborescent vegetation in shaping fluvial environments. This study reports sizeable silicified trunks and corresponding fluvial architectures from the uppermost Pennsylvanian (upper Gzhelian) Siebigerode Formation (Kyffhäuser, central Germany). The origin, taphonomy and depositional environment of the fossil woods are elucidated by using a multidisciplinary approach including geological mapping, lithofacies analysis, sediment petrography, wood anatomical studies and microstructure analyses. Results reflect the gradual burial of a gentle basement elevation by sand-bed to gravel-bed braided rivers at the north-western margin of the perimontane Saale Basin. Facies architectures resulted from a complex interplay of syndepositional tectonics, repeated palaeorelief rejuvenation, high-frequency channel avulsion, seasonally dry climate and woody debris–sediment interactions. The alluvial influx and cut-bank erosion recruited trunks from adjacent semi-riparian slope habitats vegetated by up to 40 m tall cordaitaleans and conifers. High discharge in wide braids facilitated uncongested transport of large woody debris. Trunk entombment and initial preservation resulted from grounding on barforms, anchoring by attached roots and subsequent burial. The post-depositional two-phase silicification was influenced by hydrothermal hematite mineralization and determined a selective wood preservation pattern known as ‘pointstone’. Large woody debris-induced sedimentary structures (‘LWDISS’) are introduced as a class of sediment structures formed by the biogenic impact on terrestrial deposition.     

The experimental calibration of the iron isotope fractionation factor between pyrrhotite and peralkaline rhyolitic melt

A first experimental study was conducted to determine the equilibrium iron isotope fractionation between pyrrhotite and silicate melt at magmatic conditions. Experiments were performed in an internally heated gas pressure vessel at 500 MPa and temperatures between 840 and 1000 °C for 120-168 h. Three different types of experiments were conducted and after phase separation the iron isotope composition of the run products was measured by MC-ICP-MS. (i) Kinetic experiments using ⁵⁷Fe-enriched glass and natural pyrrhotite revealed that a close approach to equilibrium is attained already after 48 h. (ii) Isotope exchange experiments—using mixtures of hydrous peralkaline rhyolitic glass powder (∼4 wt% H₂O) and natural pyrrhotites (Fe_1 − xS) as starting materials— and (iii) crystallisation experiments, in which pyrrhotite was formed by reaction between elemental sulphur and rhyolitic melt, consistently showed that pyrrhotite preferentially incorporates light iron. No temperature dependence of the fractionation factor was found between 840 and 1000 °C, within experimental and analytical precision. An average fractionation factor of Δ ⁵⁶Fe/⁵⁴Fe_{pyrrhotite-melt} = −0. 35 ± 0.04‰ (2SE, n = 13) was determined for this temperature range. Predictions of Fe isotope fractionation between FeS and ferric iron-dominated silicate minerals are consistent with our experimental results, indicating that the marked contrast in both ligand and redox state of iron control the isotope fractionation between pyrrhotite and silicate melt. Consequently, the fractionation factor determined in this study is representative for the specific Fe²⁺/ΣFe ratio of our peralkaline rhyolitic melt of 0.38 ± 0.02. At higher Fe²⁺/ΣFe ratios a smaller fractionation factor is expected. Further investigation on Fe isotope fractionation between other mineral phases and silicate melts is needed, but the presented experimental results already suggest that even at high temperatures resolvable variations in the Fe isotope composition can be generated by equilibrium isotope fractionation in natural magmatic systems.     

Identification of typical synoptic patterns causing heavy rainfall in the rainy season in Japan by a Self-Organizing Map

In order to systematically and visually understand well-known but qualitative and complex relationships between synoptic fields and heavy rainfall events in Kyushu Islands, southwestern Japan, during the BAIU season, these synoptic fields were classified using the Self-Organizing Map (SOM), which can convert complex non-linear features into simple two-dimensional relationships. It was assumed that the synoptic field patterns could be simply expressed by the spatial distribution of (1) wind components at the 850 hPa level and (2) precipitable water (PW) defined by the water vapor amount contained in a vertical column of the atmosphere. By the SOM algorithm and the clustering techniques of the U-matrix and the K-means, the synoptic fields could be divided into eight kinds of patterns (clusters). One of the clusters has the notable spatial features represented by a large PW content accompanied by strong wind components known as low-level jet (LLJ). The features of this cluster indicate a typical synoptic field pattern that frequently causes heavy rainfall in Kyushu during the rainy season.In addition, an independent data set was used for validating the performance of the trained SOM. The results indicated that the SOM could successfully extract heavy rainfall events related to typical synoptic field patterns of the BAIU season. Interestingly, one specific SOM unit was closely related to the occurrence of disastrous heavy rainfall events observed during both training and validation periods. From these results, the trained SOM showed good performance for identifying synoptic fields causing heavy rainfall also in the validation period. We conclude that the SOM technique may be an effective tool for classifying complicated non-linear synoptic fields and identifying heavy rainfall events to some degree.     

Twenty years of Belgian North Sea aerial surveillance: a quantitative analysis of results confirms effectiveness of international oil pollution legislation

Over the years many policy measures have been taken to prevent illegal oil discharges from ships, like the MARPOL 73/78 Convention (1983) and the Bonn Agreement (1969/1983). However, the number of discharges remained high, leading to chronic oiling of seabirds and sensitive coastlines, therefore further measures were taken. The aim of this study is to quantify the effectiveness of two key legislative regulations: the IMO-designation of the North Sea as MARPOL Special Area which took effect in 1999, and the adoption of the EU Directive on Port Reception Facilities in 2000. Under study is the heavily navigated Belgian Surveillance Area, monitored since 1991, characterised by shallow waters with ecologically important sandbanks. The aerial surveillance data from 1991 to 2010 show a stepwise decrease in ship-source oil pollution. Three time periods can be distinguished with two turning points coinciding with the actual implementation of these key legislative measures, confirming their effectiveness.     

Occurrence of anthropogenic and naturally-produced organohalogenated compounds in tissues of Black Sea harbour porpoises

Harbour porpoises are one of the three cetacean species inhabiting the Black Sea. This is the first study to report on polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and naturally-produced compounds, methoxylated PBDEs (MeO-PBDEs) and polybrominated hexahydroxanthene derivatives (PBHDs), in tissues (kidney, brain, blubber, liver, muscle) of male harbour porpoises (11 adults, 9 juveniles) from the Black Sea. Lipid-normalized concentrations decreased from muscle > blubber > liver > kidney > brain for the sum of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and for the sum of PBDEs. Among the naturally-produced compounds, levels of PBHDs were higher than of MeO-PBDEs, with tri-BHD and 6-MeO-BDE 47 being the dominant compounds for both groups, respectively. Concentrations of naturally-produced compounds decreased from blubber to brain, similarly to the sum of DDT and metabolites (DDXs). Concentrations of DDXs were highest, followed by PCBs, HCB, PBHDs, PBDEs and MeO-PBDEs. Levels of PCBs and PBDEs in blubber were lower than concentrations reported for harbour porpoises from the North Sea, while concentrations of DDXs were higher.