The status and prospects of risk assessment

After discussing the changing nature of perceived risk problems, the status of risk assessment is described in relation to its origins and in particular to its roots in the environmental impact statement process. The nature of risk, its component elements and the manner in which existing concepts of risk have been reflected in risk assessment methods are described. The paper considers two emerging schools of thought in current risk assessment studies: one that calls for more accurate measures of risk and increasingly comprehensive event prediction models to determine risk acceptability and another which argues that the acceptance of risk is less dependent on the accuracy of risk analyses than it is on the nature of the decision-making process and in particular on whether compensation is provided for those bearing a disproportionate share of risk.     

A reassessment of the economic effects of global climate change on U.S. agriculture

This study uses recent GCM forecasts, improved plant science and water supply data and refined economic modeling capabilities to reassess the economic consequences of long-term climate change on U.S. agriculture. Changes in crop yields, crop water demand and irrigation water arising from climate change result in changes in economic welfare. Economic consequences of the three GCM scenarios are mixed; GISS and GFDL-QFlux result in aggregate economic gains, UKMO implies losses. As in previous studies, the yield enhancing effects of atmospheric CO₂ are an important determinant of potential economic consequences. Inclusion of changes in world food production and associated export changes generally have a positive affect on U.S. agriculture. As with previous studies, the magnitude of economic effects estimated here are a small percentage of U.S. agricultural value.     

Applying Higher Order DIRK Time Steps to the "Modified Picard" Method

The “modified Picard” iteration method, which offers global mass conservation, can also be described as a form of Newton's iteration with lagged nonlinear coefficients. It converges to a time step with first-order discretization error. This paper applies second- and third-order diagonally implicit Runge Kutta (DIRK) time steps to the modified Picard method in one example. It demonstrates improvements over the first-order time step in rms error and error-times-effort model quality by factors ranging from two to over two orders of magnitude, showing that the “modified Picard” and DIRK methods are compatible.     

Characteristics of hydrothermal plumes from two vent fields on the Juan de Fuca Ridge, northeast Pacific Ocean

Deep CTD/transmissometer tows and water bottle sampling were used during 1985 to map the regional distribution of the neutrally-buoyant plumes emanating from each of two major vent fields on the Southern Symmetrical Segment (SSS) and Endeavour Segment (ES) of the Juan de Fuca Ridge. At both vent fields, emissions from point and diffuse hydrothermal sources coalesced into a single 200-m-thick plume elongated in the direction of current flow and with characteristic temperature anomalies of 0.02–0.05°C and light-attenuation anomalies of 0.01–0.08 m⁻¹ (10–80 μg/l above background). Temperature anomalies in the core of each plume were uniform as far downcurrent as the plumes were mapped (10–15 km). Downcurrent light-attenuation trends were non-uniform and differed between plumes, apparently because different vent fluid chemistries at each field cause significant differences in the settling characteristics of the hydrothermal precipitates. Vent fluids from the SSS are metal-dominated and mostly precipitate very fine-grained hydrous Fe-oxides that remain suspended in the plume. Vent fluids from the ES are sulfur-dominated and precipitate a high proportion of coarser-grained Fe-sulfides that rapidly settle from the plume. The integrated flux of each vent field was estimated from measurements of the advective transport of each plume. Heat flux was 1700 ± 1100 MW from the ES and 580 ± 351 MW from the SSS. Particle flux varied from 546 ± 312 g/s to 204 ± 116 g/s at the ES depending on distance from the vent field, and was 92 ± 48 g/s from the SSS.     

An electrochemical study of Ni2+, Co2+, and Zn2+ ions in melts of composition CaMgSi2O6

Cyclic voltammetry has been done for Ni²⁺, Co²⁺, and Zn²⁺ in melts of diopside composition in the temperature range 1425 to 1575°C. Voltammetric curves for all three ions excellently match theoretical curves for uncomplicated, reversible charge transfer at the Pt electrode. This implies that the neutral metal atoms remain dissolved in the melt. The reference electrode is a form of oxygen electrode. Relative to that reference assigned a reduction potential of 0.00 volt, the values of standard reduction potential for the ions are $\text{E}{}^1\text{(}\text{Ni}{}^{\mathrm{2+}}\text{Ni}{}^0\text{,}\text{diopside}\text{, 1500°C) = ?0.32 ± .01}\text{V}$, $\text{E}{}^1\text{(}\text{Co}{}^{\mathrm{2+}}\text{Co}{}^0\text{,}\text{diopside}\text{, 1500°C) = ?0.45 ± .02}\text{V}$, and $\text{E}{}^1\text{(}\text{Zn}{}^{\mathrm{2+}}\text{Zn}{}^0\text{,}\text{diopside}\text{, 1500°C) = ?0.53 ± .01}\text{V}$. The electrode reactions are rapid, with first order rate constants of the order of 10^?2 cm/sec. Diffusion coefficients were found to be 2.6 × 10^?6 cm²/sec for Ni²⁺, 3.4 × 10^?6 cm²/sec for Co²⁺, and 3.8 × 10^?6 cm²/sec for Zn²⁺ at 1500°C. The value of $\text{E1}$ ($\text{Ni}{}^{\mathrm{2+}}\text{Ni}{}^0$, diopside) is a linear function of temperature over the range studied, with values of ?0.35 V at 1425°C and ?0.29 V at 1575°C. At constant temperature the value of $\text{E}{}^1\text{(}\text{Ni}{}^{\mathrm{2+}}\text{Ni}{}^0\text{, 1525°C}$) was not observed to vary with composition over the range CaO · MgO · 2SiO₂ to CaO·MgO·3SiO₂ or from 1.67 CaO·0.33MgO·2SiO₂ to 0.5 CaO·1.5MgO·2SiO₂. The value for the diffusion coefficient for Ni²⁺ decreased by an order of magnitude at 1525°C over the compositional range CaO · MgO · 1.25SiO₂ to CaO · MgO · 3SiO₂. This is consistent with a mechanism by which Ni²⁺ ions diffuse by moving from one octahedral coordination site to another in the melt, with the same Ni²⁺ species discharging at the cathode regardless of the SiO₂ concentration in the melt.