Optimization of the rate of return of the mine production process

Summary The basic foundations of an integrational method of modelling and estimating the economic effectiveness of a deep coal mine production process is presented. The method is founded on the concept of integration of smaller structural elements into larger ones in order to obtain a representational model of the whole mine production process. It involves analysis of the spatial, engineering and time structures of the mining process. The basic structural unit of the production process is the elementary time interval,T, together with a linear function of the approximate intensity of financial outlays or effects. The repeated integration of these elementary time intervals within the spatial, engineering and time structures of the mine production process can be extended to model the whole mine or discrete spatial structure elements.The model may be used to investigate the trends of financial outlays and effects, and their current values updated for arbitrarily assumed updating moments. The model can also be used as an investigation tool for analysing the economical effectiveness of the mine production process.     

Integrated transfers of terrigenous organic matter to lakes at their watershed level: A combined biomarker and GIS analysis

Terrigenous organic matter (TOM) transfer from a watershed to a lake plays a key role in contaminants fate and greenhouse gazes emission in these aquatic ecosystems. In this study, we linked physiographic and vegetation characteristics of a watershed with TOM nature deposited in lake sediments. TOM was characterized using lignin biomarkers as indicators of TOM sources and state of degradation. Geographical information system (GIS) also allowed us to integrate and describe the landscape morpho-edaphic characteristics of a defined drainage basin. Combining these tools we found a significant and positive relationship (R² = 0.65, p < 0.002) between mean slope of the watershed and the terrigenous fraction estimated by Λ8 in recent sediments. The mean slope also correlated with the composition of TOM in recent sediments as P/(V + S) and 3,5Bd/V ratios significantly decreased with the steepness of the watersheds (R² = 0.57, p < 0.021 and R² = 0.71, p < 0.004, respectively). More precisely, areas with slopes comprised between 4° and 10° have a major influence on TOM inputs to lakes. The vegetation composition of each watershed influenced the composition of recent sediments of the sampled lakes. The increasing presence of angiosperm trees in the watershed influenced the export of TOM to the lake as Λ8 increased significantly with the presence of this type of vegetation (R² = 0.44, p < 0.019). A similar relationship was also observed with S/V ratios, an indicator of angiosperm sources for TOM. The type of vegetation also greatly influenced the degradation state of OM. In this study, we were able to determine that low-sloped areas (0-2°) act as buffer zones for lignin inputs and by extension for TOM loading to sediments. The relative contribution of TOM from the soil organic horizons also increased in steeper watersheds. This study has significant implications in our understanding of the fate of TOM in lacustrine ecosystems.     

Steered migration in hard rock environments

Hard rock seismic exploration normally has to deal with rather complex geological environments. These types of environments are usually characterized by a large number of local heterogeneity (e.g., faults, fracture zones, and steeply dipping interfaces). The seismic data from such environments often have a poor signal‐to‐noise ratio because of the complexity of hard rock geology. To be able to obtain reliable images of subsurface structures in such geological conditions, processing algorithms that are capable of handling seismic data with a low signal‐to‐noise ratio are required for a reflection seismic exploration. In this paper, we describe a modification of the 3D Kirchhoff post‐stack migration algorithm that utilizes coherency attributes obtained by the diffraction imaging algorithm in 3D to steer the main Kirchhoff summation. The application to a 3D synthetic model shows the stability of the presented steered migration to the presence of high level of the random noise. A test on the 3D seismic volume, acquired on a mine site located in Western Australia, reveals the capability of the approach to image steep and sharp objects such as fracture and fault zones and lateral heterogeneity.     

Toward a physically plausible upper bound of sea-level rise projections

Anthropogenic sea-level rise (SLR) causes considerable risks. Designing a sound SLR risk-management strategy requires careful consideration of decision-relevant uncertainties such as the reasonable upper bound of future SLR. The recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Fourth Assessment reported a likely upper SLR bound in the year 2100 near 0.6 m (meter). More recent studies considering semi-empirical modeling approaches and kinematic constraints on glacial melting suggest a reasonable 2100 SLR upper bound of approximately 2 m. These recent studies have broken important new ground, but they largely neglect uncertainties surrounding thermal expansion (thermosteric SLR) and/or observational constraints on ocean heat uptake. Here we quantify the effects of key parametric uncertainties and observational constraints on thermosteric SLR projections using an Earth system model with a dynamic three-dimensional ocean, which provides a mechanistic representation of deep ocean processes and heat uptake. Considering these effects nearly doubles the contribution of thermosteric SLR compared to previous estimates and increases the reasonable upper bound of 2100 SLR projections by 0.25 m. As an illustrative example of the effect of overconfidence, we show how neglecting thermosteric uncertainty in projections of the SLR upper bound can considerably bias risk analysis and hence the design of adaptation strategies. For conditions close to the Port of Los Angeles, the 0.25 m increase in the reasonable upper bound can result in a flooding-risk increase by roughly three orders of magnitude. Results provide evidence that relatively minor underestimation of the upper bound of projected SLR can lead to major downward biases of future flooding risks.     

Storage and interaction of compositionally heterogeneous magmas from the 1986 eruption of Augustine Volcano, Alaska

Compositional heterogeneity (56–64 wt% SiO₂ whole-rock) in samples of tephra and lava from the 1986 eruption of Augustine Volcano, Alaska, raises questions about the physical nature of magma storage and interaction beneath this young and frequently active volcano. To determine conditions of magma storage and evolutionary histories of compositionally distinct magmas, we investigate physical and chemical characteristics of andesitic and dacitic magmas feeding the 1986 eruption. We calculate equilibrium temperatures and oxygen fugacities from Fe-Ti oxide compositions and find a continuous range in temperature from 877 to 947°C and high oxygen fugacities (ΔNNO=1–2) for all magmas. Melt inclusions in pyroxene phenocrysts analyzed by Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy and electron probe microanalysis are dacitic to rhyolitic and have water contents ranging from <1 to ∼7 wt%. Matrix glass compositions are rhyolitic and remarkably similar (∼75.9–76.6 wt% SiO₂) in all samples. All samples have ∼25% phenocrysts, but lower-silica samples have much higher microlite contents than higher-silica samples. Continuous ranges in temperature and whole-rock composition, as well as linear trends in Harker diagrams and disequilibrium mineral textures, indicate that the 1986 magmas are the product of mixing between dacitic magma and a hotter, more mafic magma. The dacitic endmember is probably residual magma from the previous (1976) eruption of Augustine, and we interpret the mafic endmember to have been intruded from depth. Mixing appears to have continued as magmas ascended towards the vent. We suggest that the physical structure of the magma storage system beneath Augustine contributed to the sustained compositional heterogeneity of this eruption, which is best explained by magma storage and interaction in a vertically extensive system of interconnected dikes rather than a single coherent magma chamber and/or conduit. The typically short repose period (∼10 years) between Augustine's recent eruptive pulses may also inhibit homogenization, as short repose periods and chemically heterogeneous magmas are observed at several volcanoes in the Cook Inlet region of Alaska.     

The death spiral of coal in the U.S.: will changes in U.S. Policy turn the tide?

ABSTRACT

The administration of U.S. President Donald Trump has promised to stop the ongoing spiralling down of the U.S. coal industry. We discuss the origins of the decline and assess the effects of policy interventions by the Trump administration. We find that, with fierce competition from natural gas and renewables, a further decrease of coal consumption must be expected by the old and inefficient U.S. coal-fired electricity generation fleet. By contrast, we consider the overly optimistic (for coal producers) view of the U.S. Energy Information Agency, and test whether the tide for the U.S. coal industry could turn as a result of three potential support measures: (i) revoking the Clean Power Plan (CPP); (ii) facilitating access to the booming Asian market; and (iii) enhanced support for Carbon Capture, Transport and Storage (CCTS) technology. We investigate the short-term and long-term effects on U.S. coal production using a comprehensive partial equilibrium model of the world steam coal market, COALMOD-World (Holz, Haftendorn, Mendelevitch, & von Hirschhausen, 2016). We find that revoking the CPP could stop the downward trend of steam coal consumption in the U.S., but even allowing for additional exports, will not lead to a return of U.S. coal production to the levels of the 2000s, that is, over 900?Mt per year. When global steam coal use is aligned with the 2°C climate target, U.S. steam coal production drops to around 100?Mt per year by 2030 and below 50?Mt by 2050, even if CCTS is available and exports via the U.S. West Coast is possible.

Key policy insights

• Declining U.S. coal use is primarily caused by competition from natural gas and renewables not by environmental regulation of the coal sector.

• Without substantial policy support, U.S. coal-fired generation capacity will continue to decline rapidly.

• Revoking the Clean Power Plan will lead to about one eighth higher U.S. coal production in the next years.

• Carbon Capture, Transport and Storage does not prevent the rapid decline of coal use required under stringent climate policy.

• Even in the most extreme pro-coal scenarios with additional export possibilities, U.S. coal production will not return to its pre-2010 levels.

     

Thermodynamics with rotation motions: Fragmentation and slip

Basing on the Asymmetric Continuum Theory, we develop the thermodynamics including fragmentation spin fracture processes; applications for the earthquake source processes are considered. The fracture band model is used to describe a dislocation and disclination superlattice. The Gibbs free energy of defect formation is specified. A dynamic spin fracture criterion was formulated. Consequently, a dynamic model of rock fracture employing dislocations, disclinations, and cracks was constructed to describe slip and fragmentation fracture processes in the earthquake sources.     

Space Telescope,a versatile new instrument

The design, in-orbit functioning, and projected performance of the Space Telescope are discussed.Presented at the Symposium Star Catalogues, Positional Astronomy and Celestial Mechanics, held in honor of Paul Herget at the U.S. Naval Observatory, Washington, November 30, 1978.