A conceptual framework for multi-regional climate change assessments for international market systems with long-term investments

A conceptual framework for climate change assessments of international market systems that involve long-term investments is proposed. The framework is a hybrid of dynamic and static modeling. Dynamic modeling is used for those system components for which temporally continuous modeling is possible, while fixed time slices are used for other system components where it can be assumed that underlying assumptions are held constant within the time slices but allowed to vary between slices. An important component of the framework is the assessment of the “metauncertainty” arising from the structural uncertainties of a linked sequence of climate, production, trade and decision-making models. The impetus for proposing the framework is the paucity of industry-wide assessments for market systems with multiple production regions and long-term capital investments that are vulnerable to climate variations and change, especially climate extremes. The proposed framework is pragmatic, eschewing the ideal for the tractable. Even so, numerous implementation challenges are expected, which are illustrated using an example industry. The conceptual framework is offered as a starting point for further discussions of strategies and approaches for climate change impact, vulnerability and adaptation assessments for international market systems.     

How rough sea affects marine seismic data and deghosting procedures

Most seismic processing algorithms generally consider the sea surface as a flat reflector. However, acquisition of marine seismic data often takes place in weather conditions where this approximation is inaccurate. The distortion in the seismic wavelet introduced by the rough sea may influence (for example) deghosting results, as deghosting operators are typically recursive and sensitive to the changes in the seismic signal. In this paper, we study the effect of sea surface roughness on conventional (5–160 Hz) and ultra‐high‐resolution (200–3500 Hz) single‐component towed‐streamer data. To this end, we numerically simulate reflections from a rough sea surface using the Kirchhoff approximation. Our modelling demonstrates that for conventional seismic frequency band sea roughness can distort results of standard one‐dimensional and two‐dimensional deterministic deghosting. To mitigate this effect, we introduce regularisation and optimisation based on the minimum‐energy criterion and show that this improves the processing output significantly. Analysis of ultra‐high‐resolution field data in conjunction with modelling shows that even relatively calm sea state (i.e., 15 cm wave height) introduces significant changes in the seismic signal for ultra‐high‐frequency band. These changes in amplitude and arrival time may degrade the results of deghosting. Using the field dataset, we show how the minimum‐energy optimisation of deghosting parameters improves the processing result.     

How a sharp rostral dimorphism affects the life history,population structure and adaptability of a small shrimp: the case study of Hippolyte sapphica

The rostrum shows a large variation across caridean shrimps; however, our knowledge about the biological significance of this morphological structure is very limited, and information on its genetic control is completely absent. The present study concentrates on an unusual rostral dimorphism in a population of small Mediterranean caridean shrimp and combines laboratory and field observations. Analysis of lab‐reared offspring supports the hypothesis that the post‐larval elongation of the rostrum is controlled by a single genetic locus, with the long dentate rostrum representing the recessive state and the short larval‐like rostrum representing the completely dominant state. The short rostrum is a sparsely distributed character; our results obtained from field studies suggest that it reduces the viability and probability of egg‐bearing among large females but, unexpectedly, the specimens with a short rostrum show consistently more rapid sex differentiation and a significantly higher propensity to become males. Therefore, it has to be concluded that, under certain conditions, a single emergent character could influence the species evolution in a rather complex manner, thus affecting the life history, population structure and dynamics and mortality in certain subgroups. In turn, the genetic factors responsible for the different phenotypes would tend to be segregated through different subpopulations and size classes, thus partially escaping the negative selective pressure.     

Estuarine Ecosystem Response Captured Using a Synoptic Climatology

Estuarine and coastal ecosystems respond strongly to proximate climate forcing. In this study, we present a regional, synoptic climatology as an approach to classify weather patterns that generate interannual variability in coastal and estuarine ecosystems. Synoptic climatology is a method that classifies sea level pressure data into distinct patterns representing common weather features for a specified region. A synoptic climatology was developed for the eastern United States and used to quantify surface conditions affecting Chesapeake Bay during wet and dry years. In a synthesis analysis, several mechanisms were identified that explained the link between weather patterns and ecosystem structure, principal among them is the delivery of freshwater to the Bay during spring. Wet and dry years were characterized by shifts in biogeography of the Chesapeake Bay. The shifts resulted from habitat changes and trophic interactions and included the timing and magnitude of the spring phytoplankton bloom, the distribution/abundance of mesozooplankton and gelatinous zooplankton, and juvenile indices of fish. Synoptic climatology resolved regional weather variability at a spatial scale not strongly controlled by larger-scale climate indices and explained ecosystem responses in Chesapeake Bay.     

Lagrangian floats as sea floor imaging platforms

There is a persistent need for high resolution photographic images of the sea floor and associated biota for marine habitat classification and fisheries stock assessment. This paper presents a novel low cost Lagrangian imaging platform that offers high quality images with reduced operational demands in comparison to existing methodologies such as diver surveys, drop cameras, ship towed systems and dedicated remote or autonomous underwater vehicles. The platform consists of a recently developed bottom following Lagrangian float fit with down looking stereo cameras and strobe lighting. The float can use active ballasting to perform constant altitude photographic drift surveys in coastal waters over varying bathymetry. Images from the float can be used to create large photomosaics, stereographic bathymetry estimates and image-derived current measurements. Test data are presented to demonstrate the operation of the Lagrangian float and summarize the data products.     

Eutrophication of a Maryland/Virginia Coastal Lagoon: a Tipping Point,Ecosystem Changes,and Potential Causes

Water quality in the Maryland/Virginia Coastal Bays has been declining for many years from anthropogenic inputs, but conditions appear to have worsened abruptly following a shift from long-term dry to long-term wet conditions in the early 2000s. Annually and regionally averaged total nitrogen concentrations are approximately twofold higher, but ammonium (NH₄ ⁺) concentrations are up to an order of magnitude higher than in the early 1990s. Averaged nitrate concentrations, however, changed to a lesser degree throughout the time course; water column concentrations remain very low. Total phosphorus has only increased in some bay segments, but increases in phosphate (PO₄ ^3?) have been more pervasive. There were differences in the year in which large increases in each nutrient were first noted: PO₄ ^3? in ~2001–2002, followed by NH₄ ⁺ ~a year later. The effects of a combination of steadily increasing anthropogenic nutrient increases from development, superimposed on nutrient loads from farming and animal operations, and groundwater inputs were accelerated by changes in freshwater flow and associated, negatively reinforcing, biogeochemical responses. Regionally, chlorophyll a concentrations have increased, and submersed aquatic vegetation has decreased. The system is now characterized by sustained summer picoplanktonic algal blooms, both brown tide and cyanobacteria. The retentive nature of this coastal lagoon combined with the reducing nature of the system will make these changes difficult to reverse if the current dual nutrient management practices are not accelerated.     

Effects of Short‐term and Long‐term Aluminium Stress on Photosynthesis,Respiration, and Reproductive Capacity in a Unicellular Green Flagellate (Euglena gracilis)

Effects of short‐term (1 h exposure) and long‐term (7 d exposure) aluminium stress on photosynthesis and reproductive capacity have been studied in Euglena gracilis strain Z. Following concentrations of Al_tot (added as AlCl₃) were tested: 0.5 mg L^‐1, 1.0 mg L^‐1, 1.5 mg L^‐1, 2.5 mg L^‐1, 5.0 mg L^‐1, 7.5 mg L^‐1, 10.0 mg L^‐1, and 15.0 mg L^‐1 Al, respectively. Growth rates at different aluminium concentrations did not show significant differences, except at 15.0 mg L^‐1Al. Initial respiration was higher in long‐term than in the short‐term experiments. It is supposed that an energy‐dependent mechanism of excretion of aluminium ions has been active in the stressed cells. Consequently, the cells of E. gracilis after long‐term exposure to aluminium are believed to be more acclimatised to the aluminium stress. Photosynthetic efficiency (PE) has been negatively affected by aluminium in all experiments performed. Differences between control algae and those treated with aluminium were significant in all cases. PE in long‐term experiments was in general significantly higher at all concentrations of aluminium studied, compared to the short‐term experiments. The aluminium concentrations tested led only to a general decrease in PE while the level of decrease was not especially concentration‐dependent. In general, aluminium tolerance of E. gracilis can be estimated as low, especially by short‐term exposure. However, good acclimatisation capacity of this green flagellate to aluminium doses by long‐term exposure can be supposed.     

Estimating water volume discharge through salt-marsh tidal channels: An aspect of material exchange

Water volume discharge estimates were made at a sample cross-section of the Canary Creek salt marsh (Lewes, Delaware). To account for cross-sectional velocity variations, a dense spatial array of current meters was used. Simultaneous measurements were taken at hourly intervals over three complete tidal cycles. A practical method is presented whereby instantaneous average cross-sectional velocity, instantaneous cross-sectional discharge and tidal cycle discharge can be estimated from a dense current meter array, orideal data set. Based on theseideal estimates, it is shown that a simplified spatial array can be used to estimate water discharges within acceptable error limits. Instantaneous cross-sectional discharges and total tidal cycle discharges were estimated with uncertainties of ±11% and ±7%, respectively. To minimize errors when estimating material exchange between salt marshes and adjacent waters, it is suggested that a comprehensive assessment of cross-sectional lateral current velocity variations be conducted.     

Earthquake fragmentation and slip processes: Spin and shear-twist wave mosaic

We follow our former considerations on rotational processes and emission of rotation and shear-twist waves as occurring in earthquake source zones. A concise presentation of the motion and constitutive relations is given for each type of the four fundamental point deformations: displacements, rotations, point stretch/squeeze, and string-string point deformations (shear nuclei).